OBJECTIVES: Amid the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with its high infectivity, we have relied on mathematical models to predict the temporal evolution of the disease. This paper aims to show that, due to active behavioral changes of individuals and the inherent nature of infectious diseases, it is complicated and challenging to predict the temporal evolution of epidemics. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-hospitalized-removed (SEIHR) compartment model with a discrete feedback-controlled transmission rate was proposed to incorporate individuals’ behavioral changes into the model. To figure out relative uncertainties in the infection peak time and the fraction of the infected population at the peak, a deterministic method and 2 stochastic methods were applied. RESULTS: A relatively small behavioral change of individuals with a feedback constant of 0.02 in the modified SEIHR model resulted in a peak time delay of up to 50% using the deterministic method. Incorporating stochastic methods into the modified model with a feedback constant of 0.04 suggested that the relative random uncertainty of the maximum fraction of infections and that of the peak time for a population of 1 million reached 29% and 9%, respectively. Even without feedback, the relative uncertainty of the peak time increased by up to 20% for a population of 100,000. CONCLUSIONS It is shown that uncertainty originates from stochastic properties of infections. Without a proper selection of the evolution scenario, active behavioral changes of individuals could serve as an additional source of uncertainty.

OBJECTIVES: Amid the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with its high infectivity, we have relied on mathematical models to predict the temporal evolution of the disease. This paper aims to show that, due to active behavioral changes of individuals and the inherent nature of infectious diseases, it is complicated and challenging to predict the temporal evolution of epidemics. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-hospitalized-removed (SEIHR) compartment model with a discrete feedback-controlled transmission rate was proposed to incorporate individuals’ behavioral changes into the model. To figure out relative uncertainties in the infection peak time and the fraction of the infected population at the peak, a deterministic method and 2 stochastic methods were applied. RESULTS: A relatively small behavioral change of individuals with a feedback constant of 0.02 in the modified SEIHR model resulted in a peak time delay of up to 50% using the deterministic method. Incorporating stochastic methods into the modified model with a feedback constant of 0.04 suggested that the relative random uncertainty of the maximum fraction of infections and that of the peak time for a population of 1 million reached 29% and 9%, respectively. Even without feedback, the relative uncertainty of the peak time increased by up to 20% for a population of 100,000. CONCLUSIONS It is shown that uncertainty originates from stochastic properties of infections. Without a proper selection of the evolution scenario, active behavioral changes of individuals could serve as an additional source of uncertainty.

No abstract available.

BACKGROUND: Recent restriction enclonuclease analysis studies hsve revealed that MCV DNA can be classified into two major types, designated MCV-1 and MCV-2, by th:ir restriction enzyme cleavsge patterns. In earlier reports of MCV DNA analysis, MCV-2 was the main virus type found in genital lesions. However many recent studies cienied the relationship between virus type and anatomical distribution. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the ratio of MCV-l to MCV-2 in Korean isolates of MCV DNA and the relationship between MCV subtypes and with clinical features such as anatomical location, age, sex, numiber of lesions, and atopic dermatitis. METHODS: MCV DNA extrated from 112 cases of Korean patients waa examined by restriction endonuclease analysis using Brtm HI. RESULTS: 1. MCV-1 was found in 108 of 112 (96.4%) patients and MCV-2 in of 112 (3.6%) patients. The ratio of MCV-1 to MCV-2 wss 28:1. 2. There was no significant ciprrelation between MCV subtypes and the age, sex, number of lesions, atopic dermatitis, and anatoimic loction. 3. Lesions induced by MCV-1 MCV-2 were indistinguishable on the brsis of size and form. CONCLUSION: This study showis that the ratio of MCV-1 to MCV-2 was 28:1 in Korean molluscum contagiosum patients and there was no relationship between MCV subtyies and lesional morphology or snatomical distribution.
Dermatitis, Atopic ; DNA ; DNA Restriction Enzymes ; Humans ; Molecular Epidemiology* ; Molluscum contagiosum virus* ; Molluscum Contagiosum*

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the complication and recurrence rates in patients undergoing trocar-guided mesh implant for pelvic organ prolapse (POP) treatment. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed based on the medical records of patients who had undergone mesh implant by one surgeon from May 2006 to August 2013 at the Presbyterian Medical Center in Korea. We evaluated perioperative complications such as bladder injury, mesh exposure, urinary symptoms, infections, and chronic pelvic pain. Recurrence was defined as a POP-quantification system stage ≥II or any symptomatic prolapse. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients were evaluated, and the mean age of patients was 65.4±7.2 years. Stage ≥III POP-quantification Ba was noted in 61 patients (91%). Intraoperative complications included three cases of bladder injury (4.5%). The mean follow-up period was 44.1±7.9 months. Postoperative complications occurred in seven women (10.5%): four cases of urinary symptoms (6%), two cases of infections (3%), and one case of chronic pelvic pain (1.5%). Mesh exposure did not occur (0%). Prolapse recurrence was reported in five patients (7.5%). CONCLUSION: Based on our operational result, the trocar-guided mesh implant seems to provide safe and effective outcomes.
Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Intraoperative Complications ; Korea ; Medical Records ; Pelvic Organ Prolapse* ; Pelvic Pain ; Postoperative Complications ; Prolapse ; Protestantism ; Recurrence ; Retrospective Studies ; Surgical Mesh ; Urinary Bladder

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and body shape perception and depression. Methods: This study was based on data from 2016, 2018, and 2020 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The subjects were 7,302 adult female aged 19 to 65. We performed chi-square test with the RaoScott correction and Logistic regression analyses to examine the association among BMI, body shape perception, and depression. Results: All demographic variables such as age, household income, education, marital status, medical service satisfaction, body shape perception, medical conditions except drinking problem, smoking and physical activity were correlated with depression. The rate of depression decreased from underweight to normal weight and overweight, and increased from obesity to severe obesity (p<0.001). And people who perceived themselves thin or overweight had more depression than normal (p<0.001). Conclusions The results of this study suggest that appropriate body mass index and normal body shape perception have a positive effect on mental health.

Pseudo-kaposi's sarcoma is a vasoproliferative disorder that may resemble Kaposi's sarcoma, clinically and histologically. In most cases, it has been associated with congenital or iatrogenic arteriovenous fistula and chronic venous insuffiency. We present a 36-year-old male patient with pseudo-Kaposi's sarcoma caused by a deed vein thrombosis in the absence of any detectable underlying etiologic factors.
Adult ; Arteriovenous Fistula ; Humans ; Male ; Sarcoma ; Sarcoma, Kaposi* ; Thrombosis ; Veins ; Venous Thrombosis*

BACKGROUND: Standard solution-phase PCR cannot localize the amplified DNA products in cells or tissue sections. Recently, in situ PCR technique which combines PCR with in situ hybridization was developed and applied to detect target DNA or gene expression in the tissue sections. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to detect the presence of HSV type-1 DNA in herpes simplex lesions by using hot start PCR in situ hybridization and hot start in situ PCR and to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the two methods. The sensitivity and specificity of multiple overlapping primers and a single primer pair in hot start in situ PCR were also compared. METHODS: We performed hot start PCR in situ hybridization and in situ PCR with multiple overlapping primers, and hot start in situ PCR with a single primer pair in paraffin-embedded, formalin-fixed tissues. RESULTS: HSV type-1 DNA was detected in 4 (80%) of.5 cases of herpes simplex and negative in all cases of herpes zoster, verruca vulgaris, and normal skins. One negative case of herpes simplex could not be detected by HSV type-1 specific primers because it might be caused by HSV type-2. There was no difference in the sensitivity, specificity, and intensity of signals between the three methods. CONCLUSION: Hot start in situ PCR with a single primer pair is a simpler, easier, and more rapid technique for detecting the HSV type-1 DNA in lesional tissue sections with similar sensitivity and specificity than hot start PCR in situ hybridization and hot start in situ PCR using multiple overlapping primers.
DNA* ; Gene Expression ; Herpes Simplex* ; Herpes Zoster ; In Situ Hybridization ; Polymerase Chain Reaction* ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Simplexvirus* ; Skin ; Warts

OBJECTIVE: Epidural fibrosis and adhesion are the main reasons for post-laminectomy sustained pain and functional disability. In this study, the authors investigate the effect of irradiated freeze-dried human amniotic membrane on reducing epidural adhesion after laminectomy on a rat model. METHODS: A total of 20 rats were divided into two groups. The group A did not receive human amniotic membrane implantation after laminectomy and group B underwent human amniotic membrane implantation after laminectomy. Gross and microscopic findings were evaluated and compared at postoperative 1, 3 and 8 weeks. RESULTS: The amount of scar tissue and tenacity were reduced grossly in group of rats with human amniotic membrane implantation (group B). On a microscopic evaluation, there were less inflammatory cell infiltration and fibroblast proliferation in group B. CONCLUSION: This experimental study shows that implantation of irradiated freeze-dried human amniotic membrane reduce epidural fibrosis and adhesion after spinal laminectomy in a rat model.
Amnion ; Animals ; Cicatrix ; Failed Back Surgery Syndrome ; Fibroblasts ; Fibrosis ; Humans ; Laminectomy ; Rats

BACKGROUND: The oral ulcer is a common oral disorder, but the precise etiology remains elusive despite of intensive clinical, immunological, hematological and microbiological investigations. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine oral ulcers for the detection of HSV DNA by using PCR and to characterize clinical features of HSV DNA positive cases. METHODS: Specimens collected with cotton swabs and saliva from 48 cases of oral ulcers were examined for HSV DNA by PCR and Southern blot hybridization. RESULTS: 1. HSV DNA was detected in 8 of 48(16.7%) cotton swabbed specimens of oral ulcers and saliva by PCR and Southern blot hybridization. 2. Clinical features of HSV DNA positive oral ulcers were a. predominently located in buccal mucosa. b. mall sized(<3mm), multiple(> or =5) lesions. 3. In Behcet's disease, 2 of 7(28.6%) cases of oral ulcers were positive for HSV DNA CONCLUSION: PCR is an useful and accurate method for the detection of HSV DNA from cotton swabbed specimens of oral ulcers.
Blotting, Southern ; DNA ; Herpes Simplex* ; Mouth Mucosa ; Oral Ulcer* ; Polymerase Chain Reaction* ; Saliva ; Simplexvirus*