Objective: To establish a prediction model for infectious disease index（IDI）by autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）,and to provide forcast of infectious diseases to the public. Methods: The data of the percentage of influenza-like illness（ILI）,the incidence rates of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）and other infectious diarrhea（OID）from the 1st week of 2014 to the 14th week of 2018,and Breteau index（BI）from the 1st week of 2016 to the 14th week of 2018 were collected. ARIMA models were built to predict the risk indicators of ILI,HFMD,OID and BI. The weights of the four indicators were evaluated seasonally by the entropy weight method. Then the IDI was calculated and the data of ILI,HFMD, OID and BI from 15th to 19th week in 2018 was used for verification. Results: The forecast was in summer,so IDI=ROUND（0.33×risk index of ILI percentage +0.47×risk index of HFMD incidence +0.10×risk index of OID incidence+0.10×risk index of BI）. The predicted IDI would be 2（less safe）in the whole city and Xiangzhou District,and 1（safe）in Doumen District and Jinwan District. The consistency rates of IDI prediction was 97.50%,95.00%,97.50%,85.00% and 77.50% from 15th to 19th week in 2018,respectively. Conclusion It was feasible to use IDI for short-term risk prediction of infectious diseases.

Objective:To investigate the efficacy of proximal femoral nail anti-rotation (PFNA) plus bone cement enhancement in the treatment of geriatric osteoporotic femoral intertrochanteric fractures.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted of the 52 elderly patients with osteoporotic femoral intertrochanteric fracture who had been treated at Department of Bone and Joint Surgery, The Fourth People's Hospital of Guiyang from September 2012 to October 2018 by PFNA internal fixation plus bone cement enhancement. They were 8 males and 44 females, aged from 65 to 91 years (average, 78 years). The time from injury to operation averaged 4.4 d. By the AO/OTA classification, there were one case of type 31-A1.2, 2 cases of type 31-A2.1, 8 cases of type 31-A2.2, 34 cases of type 31-A2.3, one case of type 31-A3.1, and 6 cases of type 31-A3.3. The patients' operation time, intraoperative bleeding, hospital stay, fracture reduction, postoperative weight-bearing time, fracture union time, function of the affected hip and complications were recorded.Results:The operation time for this cohort averaged 79.4 min, intraoperative bleeding 123.6 mL, and hospital stay 11.9 d. By the Francisco evaluation, the reduction of intertrochanteric fracture was assessed as good in 43 cases and as fair in 9 cases. Of this cohort, 45 were followed up for 5 to 12 months (average, 6 months) and 7 lost to follow-up. By the Harris hip scores at the last follow-up, 14 cases were rated as excellent, 25 as good and 6 as fair, giving an excellent to good rate of 88.9% (39/45). No complications like loosening, cut-out or breakage of implants or femoral head necrosis occurred during follow-up.Conclusion:In the treatment of geriatric osteoporotic femoral intertrochanteric fractures, PFNA plus bone cement enhancement can achieve satisfactory clinical efficacy.