Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Korea/epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors

Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Chronic Disease/*epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology ; Humans ; Korea/epidemiology ; *Models, Theoretical ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVES: Controlling blood pressure is a key step in reducing cardiovascular mortality in older adults. Gender differences in patients' attitudes after disease diagnosis and their management of the disease have been identified. However, it is unclear whether gender differences exist in hypertension management among older adults. We hypothesized that gender differences would exist among factors associated with hypertension diagnosis and control among community-dwelling, older adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from 653 Koreans aged > or =60 years who participated in the Korean Social Life, Health, and Aging Project. Multiple logistic regression was used to compare several variables between undiagnosed and diagnosed hypertension, and between uncontrolled and controlled hypertension. RESULTS: Diabetes was more prevalent in men and women who had uncontrolled hypertension than those with controlled hypertension or undiagnosed hypertension. High body mass index was significantly associated with uncontrolled hypertension only in men. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that in women, awareness of one's blood pressure level (odds ratio [OR], 2.86; p=0.003) and the number of blood pressure checkups over the previous year (OR, 1.06; p=0.011) might influence the likelihood of being diagnosed with hypertension. More highly educated women were more likely to have controlled hypertension than non-educated women (OR, 5.23; p=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that gender differences exist among factors associated with hypertension diagnosis and control in the study population of community-dwelling, older adults. Education-based health promotion strategies for hypertension control might be more effective in elderly women than in elderly men. Gender-specific approaches may be required to effectively control hypertension among older adults.
Aged ; *Aging ; Asian Continental Ancestry Group ; Awareness ; Blood Pressure ; Body Mass Index ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; *Health Status ; Humans ; Hypertension/diagnosis/epidemiology/*prevention & control ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Odds Ratio ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Sex Factors