BACKGROUND: Pneumonia has a high human toll and a substantial economic burden in developed countries like Japan, where the crude mortality rate was 77.7 per 100,000 people in 2017. As this trend is going to continue with increasing number of the elderly multi-morbid population in Japan; monitoring performance over time is a social need to alleviate the disease burden. The study objective was to determine the characteristics of hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) for pneumonia in Japan from 2010 to 2018 to describe this trend. METHODS: Data of the DPC (Diagnostic Procedures Combination) database were used, which is an administrative claims and discharge summary database for acute care in-patients in Japan. HSMRs were calculated using the actual and expected numbers of in-hospital deaths, the latter of which was calculated using logistic regression model, with a number of explanatory variables, e.g., age, sex, urgency of admission, mode of transportation, patient volume per month in each hospital, A-DROP score, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We constructed two HSMR models: a single-year model, which included hospitals with > 10 in-patients per month and, a 9-year model, which included those hospitals with complete 9-year data. Predictive accuracy of the logistic models was assessed using c-index (area under receiver operating curve). RESULTS: Total 230,372 patients were included for the analysis over the 9-year study period. Calculated HSMRs showed wide variation among hospitals. The proportion of hospitals with HSMR less than 100 increased from 36.4% in 2010 to 60.6% in 2018. Both models showed good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.762 for the 9-year model, and no less than 0.717 for the single-year model. CONCLUSION This study denoted that HSMRs of pneumonia can be calculated using DPC data in Japan and revealed significant variations among hospitals with comparable case-mixes. Therefore, HSMR can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel and to get a clear picture of where hospitals excel and lack.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. This study aimed to calculate the economic burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to identify key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of IHD. METHODS: We calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2014 using governmental statistics. We then predicted the COI for every 3 years starting from 2017 up to 2029 using the fixed and variable model estimations. Only the estimated future population was used as a variable in the fixed model estimation. By contrast, variable model estimation considered the time trend of health-related indicators over the past 18 years. We derived the COI from the sum of direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality). RESULTS: The past estimation of COI slightly increased from 1493.8 billion yen in 1996 to 1708.3 billion yen in 2014. Future forecasts indicated that it would decrease from 1619.0 billion yen in 2017 to 1220.5 billion yen in 2029. CONCLUSION The past estimation showed that the COI of IHD increased; in the mixed model, the COI was predicted to decrease with the continuing trend of health-related indicators. The COI of IHD in the future projection showed that, although the average age of death increased by social aging, the influence of the number of deaths and mortality cost decreased.
Aged ; Cost of Illness ; Female ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Japan ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Myocardial Ischemia ; economics ; etiology