OBJECTIVE: To identify early potential risk factors for hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), construct a risk prediction model, and evaluate its predictive efficacy. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted using clinical data from mTBI patients admitted to the neurosurgery department of Changzhou Second People's Hospital from September 2021 to September 2023. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they developed HAP. Clinical data within 48 hours of admission were statistically analyzed to identify factors influencing HAP occurrence through univariate analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was employed for feature selection to identify the most influential variables. The dataset was divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A multivariate Logistic regression analysis was then performed using the training set to construct the prediction model, exploring the risk factors for HAP in mTBI patients and conducting internal validation in the validation set. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curve were utilized to assess the sensitivity, specificity, decision value, and predictive accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: A total of 677 mTBI patients were included, with 257 in the HAP group and 420 in the non-HAP group. The significant differences were found between the two groups in terms of age, maximum body temperature (MaxT), maximum heart rate (MaxHR), maximum systolic blood pressure (MaxSBP), minimum systolic blood pressure (MinSBP), maximum respiratory rate (MaxRR), cause of injury, and laboratory indicators [C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), neutrophil count (NEUT), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen (FBG), fibrinogen equivalent units (FEU), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), total cholesterol (TC), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), prealbumin (PAB), albumin (Alb), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), hematocrit (HCT), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet count (PLT), glucose (Glu), K⁺, Na⁺], suggesting they could be potential risk factors for HAP in mTBI patients. After LASSO regression analysis, the key risk factors were enrolled in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that the cause of injury being a traffic accident [odds ratio (OR) = 2.199, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.124-4.398, P = 0.023], NEUT (OR = 1.330, 95%CI was 1.214-1.469, P < 0.001), ESR (OR = 1.053, 95%CI was 1.019-1.090, P = 0.003), FBG (OR = 0.272, 95%CI was 0.158-0.445, P < 0.001), PT (OR = 0.253, 95%CI was 0.144-0.422, P < 0.001), APTT (OR = 0.689, 95%CI was 0.578-0.811, P < 0.001), Alb (OR = 0.734, 95%CI was 0.654-0.815, P < 0.001), BUN (OR = 0.720, 95%CI was 0.547-0.934, P = 0.016), and Na⁺ (OR = 0.756, 95%CI was 0.670-0.843, P < 0.001) could serve as main risk factors for constructing the prediction model. Calibration curves demonstrated good calibration of the prediction model in both training and validation sets with no evident over fitting. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model in the training set was 0.943 (95%CI was 0.921-0.965, P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 83.6% and a specificity of 91.5%. In the validation set, the AUC was 0.917 (95%CI was 0.878-0.957, P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 90.1% and a specificity of 85.0%. DCA indicated that the prediction model had a high net benefit, suggesting practical clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS The cause of injury being a traffic accident, NEUT, ESR, FBG, PT, APTT, Alb, BUN, and Na⁺ are identified as major risk factors influencing the occurrence of HAP in mTBI patients. The prediction model constructed using these parameters effectively assesses the likelihood of HAP in mTBI patients.
Humans ; Risk Factors ; Case-Control Studies ; Logistic Models ; Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/epidemiology* ; Brain Injuries, Traumatic/complications* ; Male ; Female ; ROC Curve ; Pneumonia/etiology* ; Middle Aged ; Adult

Objective:To investigate the independent risk factors of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) complicated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and the accuracy and prevention value of ARDS prediction based on artificial neural network model in CAP patients.Methods:A case-control study was conducted. Clinical data of 414 patients with CAP who met the inclusion criteria and were admitted to the comprehensive intensive care unit and respiratory department of Changzhou Second People's Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from February 2020 to February 2021 were analyzed. They were divided into two groups according to whether they had complicated with ARDS. The clinical data of the two groups were collected within 24 hours after admission, the influencing factors of ARDS were screened out by univariate analysis, and the artificial neural network model was constructed. Through the artificial neural network model, the importance of input layer independent variables (that was, the influence factors obtained from univariate analysis) on the output layer dependent variables (whether ARDS occurred) was drawn. The artificial neural network modeling data pairs were randomly divided into training group ( n = 290) and verification group ( n = 124) in a ratio of 7∶3. The overall prediction accuracy of the training group and the verification group was calculated respectively. At the same time, the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. Results:All 414 patients were enrolled in the analysis, including 82 patients with ARDS and 332 patients without ARDS. Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, heart rate (HR), maximum systolic blood pressure (MSBP), maximum respiratory rate (MRR), source of admission, C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), neutrophil count (NEUT), eosinophil count (EOS), fibrinogen equivalent unit (FEU), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), total bilirubin (TBil), albumin (ALB), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum creatinine (SCr), hemoglobin (Hb) and blood glucose (GLU) were significantly different between the two groups, which might be the risk factors of CAP patients complicated with ARDS. Taking the above 19 risk factors as the input layer and whether ARDS occurred as the output layer, the artificial neural network model was constructed. Among the input layer independent variables, the top five indicators with the largest influence weight on the neural network model were LDH (100.0%), PCT (74.4%), FEU (61.5%), MRR (56.9%), and APTT (51.6%), indicating that that these five indicators had a greater impact on the occurrence of ARDS in patients with CAP. The overall prediction accuracy of the artificial neural network model in the training group was 94.1% (273/290), and that of the verification group was 89.5% (111/124). The AUC predicted by the aforementioned artificial neural network model for ARDS in CAP patients was 0.977 (95% confidence interval was 0.956-1.000).Conclusion:The prediction model of ARDS in CAP patients based on artificial neural network model has good prediction ability, which can be used to calculate the accuracy of ARDS in CAP patients, and specific preventive measures can be given.