Objective To explore the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in predicting the number of reported hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province，to use this model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis E, and to provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of hepatitis E. Methods Monthly reported cases of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected. The ARIMA model was established using SPSS 27.0, and the model was validated and parameters were optimized with data from January 2022 to December 2022. The optimal fitting model was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in 2023. Results Hepatitis E incidence in Yunnan Province showed a certain seasonal distribution, with most cases concentrated from March to August. All parameters of ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ passed statistical tests. The Ljung-Box test showed statistic Q =10.050, P = 0.346, residual sequence was a white noise sequence, and goodness-of-fit index stationary R² was 0.591. The model extrapolation effect was verified with 2022 data, and MAPE was 14.747, indicating that the model extrapolation effect was effective. The number of hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province in 2023 was expected to be 1,086. Conclusion The ARIMA (3,1,4)(1,1,1)₁₂ model shows good fitting performance for hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province and can effectively predict short-term disease trends, providing a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis E.

Objective:To investigate the rates of low disease activity and clinical remission in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE)in a real-world setting,and to analyze the related factors of low disease activity and clinical remission.Methods:One thousand patients with SLE were enrolled from 11 teaching hospitals.Demographic,clinical and laboratory data,as well as treatment regimes were collec-ted by self-completed questionnaire.The rates of low disease activity and remission were calculated based on the lupus low disease activity state(LLDAS)and definitions of remission in SLE(DORIS).Charac-teristics of patients with LLDAS and DORIS were analyzed.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the related factors of LLDAS and DORIS remission.Results:20.7％of patients met the criteria of LLDAS,while 10.4％of patients achieved remission defined by DORIS.Patients who met LLDAS or DORIS remission had significantly higher proportion of patients with high income and longer disease duration,compared with non-remission group.Moreover,the rates of anemia,creatinine eleva-tion,increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR)and hypoalbuminemia was significantly lower in the LLDAS or DORIS group than in the non-remission group.Patients who received hydroxychloroquine for more than 12 months or immunosuppressant therapy for no less than 6 months earned higher rates of LLDAS and DORIS remission.The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that increased ESR,positive anti-dsDNA antibodies,low level of complement(C3 and C4),proteinuria,low household in-come were negatively related with LLDAS and DORIS remission.However,hydroxychloroquine usage for longer than 12 months were positively related with LLDAS and DORIS remission.Conclusion:LLDAS and DORIS remission of SLE patients remain to be improved.Treatment-to-target strategy and standar-dized application of hydroxychloroquine and immunosuppressants in SLE are recommended.

AIM:To explore the effect of microRNA-296-5p(miR-296-5p)on neurological damage after cere-bral infarction(CI)and its regulatory relationship with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2(ACE2)signaling pathway medi-ated proliferation of endothelial progenitor cell(EPC).METHODS:Serum samples from 70 patients diagnosed with CI and accompanied by neurological damage in our hospital(CI group)and 70 healthy volunteers(healthy group)were se-lected.The mRNA expression of miR-296-5p,ACE2,and Mas in the serum of both groups were detected by RT-qPCR.The rat model of CI was constructed and SD rats were randomly divided into healthy control group,model control group,sh-miR-296-5p group,and ACE2 overexpression group(OE-ACE2 group).Neurological severity scores(NSS)score was evaluated.The CI status of rats in each group was observed by TTC staining.The mRNA expression of miR-296-5p,ACE2,and Mas in serum of rat was detected by RT-qPCR.EPC were isolated and cultured routinely,and were randomly divided into control group,sh-miR-296-5p group,OE-ACE2 group,OE-miR-296-5p+OE-ACE2 group,and sh-miR-296-5p+sh-ACE2 group.The viability of EPC was detected by CCK-8.Apoptosis of EPC was detected by flow cytometry.The mRNA expression of miR-296-5p,ACE2,and Mas in EPC was detected by RT-qPCR.The relationship between miR-296-5p and ACE2 was verified by dual luciferase reporter gene assay.RESULTS:(1)Clinical trial:compared with the healthy group,the level of miR-296-5p in serum of CI patients was obviously increased(P<0.05),while the mRNA ex-pression levels of ACE2 and Mas were obviously reduced(P<0.05).(2)Animal experiments:compared with the healthy control group,the NSS score,CI area,the level of miR-296-5p in serum,and the mRNA expression level of Mas in the model control group were obviously increased(P<0.05),while the mRNA expression level of ACE2 was obviously de-creased(P<0.05).Compared with the model control group,the NSS score,CI area,the level of miR-296-5p in serum,and the mRNA expression level of Mas in the sh-miR-296-5p group and OE-ACE2 group were obviously reduced(P<0.05),while the mRNA expression level of the ACE2 was obviously increased(P<0.05).(3)Cell experiment:Com-pared with the control group,the A450 and the level of miR-296-5p of EPC cells in the sh-miR-296-5p group and OE-ACE2 group were obviously reduced(P<0.05),the apoptosis rate,the mRNA expression level of ACE2,and Mas were obvious-ly increased(P<0.05).Compared with the sh-miR-296-5p group,the A450 and the level of miR-296-5p in the sh-miR-296-5p+sh-ACE2 group were obviously increased(P<0.05),the apoptosis rate,the mRNA expression level of ACE2,and Mas were obviously reduced(P<0.05).Compared with the OE-ACE2 group,the level of A450 and miR-296-5p in OE-miR-296-5p+OE-ACE2 group were obviously increased(P<0.05),the apoptosis rate,the mRNA expression level of ACE2,and Mas were obviously reduced(P<0.05).CONCLUSION:Knockdown of miR-296-5p may inhibit EPC proliferation by mediating the ACE2 signaling pathway,and alleviate neurological damage after CI.

Objective To evaluate the effects of andrographolide on insulin resistance,dysbiosis and Notch/zinc finger protein transcription factor 1(Snail1)signaling pathway in diabetic rats.Methods A total of 70 male Wistar rats with SPF grade were selected,and 30 of them were selected for andrographolide LD50 test.After determining the lethal dose,50 mg/kg was selected for administration and observation,the remaining 40 rats,10 were used as the NC group,30 were established as the diabetes model,and a total of 28 rats were successfully modeled,which were divided into T2DM group(n=9),Metformin treatment group(Met,n=9),and andrographolide administration group(And,n=10).The NC group and T2DM group were not treated.The changes were evaluated after 14 days of intervention.Results Compared with NC group,HOMA-IR,the abundance levels of Bacteroidetes,Firmicute,mRNA and protein expression levels of Notch and Snail1,and positive expression rates were increased(P<0.05),while the abundance levels of Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium were decreased in T2DM,Met and And group(P<0.05).Compared with T2DM group,HOMA-IR,the abundance levels of Bacteroidetes,Firmicute,mRNA and protein expression levels of Notch and Snail1,and positive expression rates were decreased,while the abundance levels of Lactobacillus and bifidobacterium were increased in Met and And group(P<0.05).Conclusions After andrographolide intervention,insulin resistance was alleviated,microbiota imbalance was improved,and Notch/Snail1 signaling pathway was suppressed in diabetic rats.

Objective To investigate the effect of atractylenolide Ⅲ(A Ⅲ)on stroke in spon-taneously hypertensive rats by regulating microRNA-296-5p(miR-296-5p)expression.Methods The spontaneously hypertensive rats(SHR)were given 0.9％sodium chloride solution freely for 2 months,and then fed with 1％sodium chloride solution to establish the stroke model of SHR.The rat models were randomly grouped into Model group,A Ⅲ low-dose group(A Ⅲ-L group),A Ⅲ high-dose group(A Ⅲ-H group),positive drug nimodipine group(Nim group),miR-296-5p agonist group(miR-296-5p agomir group),agomir NC group,A Ⅲ-H+miR-296-5p agomir group,and A Ⅲ-H+agomir NC group,with 12 in each group.The changes in neurological symptom scores,av-erage arterial pressure,survival time,and platelet adhesion rate were detected and recorded;hema-toxylin and eosin(HE)staining was applied to detect pathological changes in the CA1 region of the rat hippocampus;quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR)was ap-plied to detect the expression of miR-296-5p in the hippocampal CA1 region.Results Compared with the NC group,the Model group showed increases in neurological symptom score,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate,miR-296-5p expression,shortened survival time,and severe pathological damage to the hippocampal CA1 area(P＜0.05);compared with the Model group,the neurological symptom scores,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate,and miR-296-5p expression in the A Ⅲ-L,A Ⅲ-H,and Nim groups decreased,the survival time was prolonged,and the pathological damage in the CA1 area of the hippocampus was alleviated(P＜0.05);compared with Model group and agomir NC group,neurological symptom score,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate and miR-296-5p expression of rats in the miR-296-5p agomir group were increased,survival time was shortened,and pathological damage in hippocampal CA1 region was aggravated(P＜0.05).compared with the A Ⅲ-H group and the AⅢ-H+agomir NC group,the neurological symptom score,average arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate and miR-296-5p expression of rats were in-creased,the survival time was shortened,and the pathological damage in hippocampal CA1 region was serious in the AⅢ-H+miR-296-5p agomir group(P＜0.05).Conclusion A Ⅲ may treat SHR stroke by inhibiting the expression of miR-296-5p.

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of school varicella and varicella public health emergency event (PHEE) in Yunnan Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of varicella in schools. Methods The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the reported PHEE of varicella in students and varicella in schools in Yunnan Province from 2018 to 2020. Results From 2018 to 2020, a total of 69,391 cases of varicella were reported in students in Yunnan Province, accounting for 71.48% (69 391 / 97 080) of the total cases in the province, and the annual average reported incidence rate was 255.56/100 000 (69 391/27.1522 million). The time distribution of the incidence showed double peaks, which were from May to July (26.48%) and October to January of the following year (53.88%). The incidence rates of different schools from high to low were 301.74/100 000 for primary schools (34 816/11.538 3 million), 250.43/100 000 for kindergarten (11 526/4.6024 million), 202.74/100 000 for middle school (16 779/8.276 1 million), and 119.07/100 000 for others (3 257/2.735 4 million). The age distribution was mainly concentrated in 5-9 years old, accounting for 39.81% (27 625/69 391). Varicella PHEE accounted for 25.64% (180/702）of the province's PHEE in the same period, school varicella PHEE accounted for 100% of varicella PHEE, and the attack rate was 3.38% (6 566/194 260). The sources of reported varicella PHEE were hospitals 45.40% (58/123), epidemic analysis 36.78% (44/123), schools 13.22% (15/123), and others 4.60% (6/123). Conclusion The incidence of varicella in schools in Yunnan Province is high, which is harmful to students. PHEE reported in rural schools are relatively lagging behind. On the basis of doing two doses of varicella vaccination, emergency prevention should be focused on epidemic seasons, lower grade schools and rural schools. The source of infection shall be controlled and managed in time to prevent the outbreak of the epidemic. It is recommended that varicella should be included in the management of Class C infectious diseases.

Objective To investigate the effect of atractylenolide Ⅲ(A Ⅲ)on stroke in spon-taneously hypertensive rats by regulating microRNA-296-5p(miR-296-5p)expression.Methods The spontaneously hypertensive rats(SHR)were given 0.9％sodium chloride solution freely for 2 months,and then fed with 1％sodium chloride solution to establish the stroke model of SHR.The rat models were randomly grouped into Model group,A Ⅲ low-dose group(A Ⅲ-L group),A Ⅲ high-dose group(A Ⅲ-H group),positive drug nimodipine group(Nim group),miR-296-5p agonist group(miR-296-5p agomir group),agomir NC group,A Ⅲ-H+miR-296-5p agomir group,and A Ⅲ-H+agomir NC group,with 12 in each group.The changes in neurological symptom scores,av-erage arterial pressure,survival time,and platelet adhesion rate were detected and recorded;hema-toxylin and eosin(HE)staining was applied to detect pathological changes in the CA1 region of the rat hippocampus;quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(qRT-PCR)was ap-plied to detect the expression of miR-296-5p in the hippocampal CA1 region.Results Compared with the NC group,the Model group showed increases in neurological symptom score,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate,miR-296-5p expression,shortened survival time,and severe pathological damage to the hippocampal CA1 area(P＜0.05);compared with the Model group,the neurological symptom scores,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate,and miR-296-5p expression in the A Ⅲ-L,A Ⅲ-H,and Nim groups decreased,the survival time was prolonged,and the pathological damage in the CA1 area of the hippocampus was alleviated(P＜0.05);compared with Model group and agomir NC group,neurological symptom score,mean arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate and miR-296-5p expression of rats in the miR-296-5p agomir group were increased,survival time was shortened,and pathological damage in hippocampal CA1 region was aggravated(P＜0.05).compared with the A Ⅲ-H group and the AⅢ-H+agomir NC group,the neurological symptom score,average arterial pressure,platelet adhesion rate and miR-296-5p expression of rats were in-creased,the survival time was shortened,and the pathological damage in hippocampal CA1 region was serious in the AⅢ-H+miR-296-5p agomir group(P＜0.05).Conclusion A Ⅲ may treat SHR stroke by inhibiting the expression of miR-296-5p.

Based on gram positive enhancer matrix displaying technology, we designed and evaluated a bacteria-like particle vaccine against swine type O Foot-and-mouth disease virus. Three optimized genes of type O Foot-and-mouth disease virus strain Mya98 were cloned into recombinant prokaryotic expression vector pQZ-PA and renamed as pQZ-BT1B-PA, pQZ-BT2B-PA and pQZ-B (T1BT2) 4B-PA, fused with an anchor protein (PA) binding to Gram-positive enhancer matrix (GEM) particles specifically. The protein expression was identified with SDS-PAGE and Western blotting, and then purified with GEM particles. Five-week old female mice were randomly divided into six groups and all the immunization was developed according to subcutaneous injection. Mice in the first three groups were injected with 50 μg/dose GEM-BT1B, GEM-BT2B and GEM-B (T1BT2) 4B, respectively. Mice in the fourth group were immunized with commercial peptide vaccine as positive control. The fifth group vaccinated with host E. coli transformed with pQZ-PA fulfilled as negative control. Mice in the last group injected with sterile PBS served as blank control. The humoral immunity of recombinant protein vaccine was evaluated with peptide-specific antibody and LPB antibody. The cellular immunity was evaluated with lymphocyte proliferation test and cytokine expression detection. SDS-PAGE and Western blotting showed that the most part of soluble target fusion protein have been purified and displayed on GEM particles. Vaccine GEM-B (T1BT2) 4B stimulated mice produce not only higher level of specific antibody against peptide and Foot-and-mouth disease virus specific liquid phase blocking antibody, but also more vigorous spleen lymph proliferation and higher levels of Th1 type cytokines. To summarize, vaccine of GEM-B (T1BT2) 4B possessed good immunogenicity and opened a new way for further Foot-and-mouth disease virus subunit vaccine design.

Objective To investigate the correlation of the supine hypertension (SP) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in the elderly. Methods Kailuan study is a functional community-based cardiovascular risk factor study. From June 2006, there was a physical examination every two years. In the examination, demographic data, smoking, drinking, physical exercise situation and medication situation were recorded. Levels of triglyceride, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, low density lipoprotein and other biochemical indexes were observed. Using cluster random sampling, 3 064 retired employees of 60 years of age or older were selected. A total of 2 464 subjects took part in an additional examination, including the 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity, blood pressure of different positions and urine albumin. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze the correlation between supine systolic blood pressure (SBP) and IMT. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of SP on IMT. Results (1) Among 2 220 participants (67.29±6.09) years, 1 463 (65.9%) individuals were male and 757 (34.1%) were females, and the average IMT was (0.92 ± 0.18) mm. (2) There was a positive correlation between supine SBP and IMT (r=0.175, P<0.01). (3) After adjusting the confounds, supine SBP was significantly associated with IMT, with an increase of 1 SD (+20.42 mmHg, 1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) in SBP corresponding to an increase of IMT by 0.01 mm (P<0.01). (4) Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for sitting SBP, age, gender and other factors, SP was still a risk factor of increased IMT (OR=1.37, 95%CI:1.03-1.80), and independent of sitting SBP. Conclusion The supine hypertension is a risk factor of increased IMT, and independent of sitting SBP.

Objective To investigate the correlation of short-term systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) with esti?mated glomeruar filtration rate (eGFR) in the elderly. Methods In physical examination for the third time of kailuan group, the method of cluster sampling was used to collect randomly retired employees, age≥60 in kailuan group. The 24-hour am?bulatory blood pressure monitoring was given to these objects. Finally, 1 405 participants with integral data were recruited in?to the survey. SBPV indices were standard deviation of systolic blood pressure (SD), variability independent of the mean (VIM), maximum-minimum difference (MMD), and average real variability (ARV). Multivariate stepwise linear regression models were used to analyze the influence of short-term SBPV on eGFR. Results (1) Among 1 405 participants (67.16 ± 5.82) years, 933 individuals (66.4%) were male and 472 (33.6%) were female. (2) Study population were divided into four groups based on the 24-hour mean SBP, daytime mean SBP, night time mean SBP (group 1:mean SBP<120 mmHg, group 2:120≤mean SBP<140 mmHg, group 3:140≤mean SBP<160 mmHg, group 4:mean SBP≥160 mmHg), respectively. Values of SD, MMD and ARV, but not VIM were increased with increased mean SBP. (3) The participants were grouped according to the median SBPV with between-group comparison of the eGFR. The average eGFR levels were lower in the high 24-hour SB?PV group (SD, VIM, MMD and ARV), day-time SBPV group (SD, VIM, MMD and ARV) and night-time SBPV group (SD, MMD and ARV) than those in the low SBPV groups (P<0.05). (4) Multivariate stepwise linear regression showed that eGFR increased with 3 indices of 24-hour SBPV (SD, MMD and ARV) and 2 indices of day-time SBPV (MMD and ARV) but not for night-time SBPV (β=-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.12 and-0.07, respectively). Conclusion There is a certain degree of asso?ciation between short-term SBPV indices and eGFR.