1.Research advances in transmission dynamic models on hand, foot, and mouth disease
Jie HONG ; Zheng ZHAO ; Qing SU ; Jiaqi HUANG ; Xi CHEN ; Jiaxu LE ; Xiuliang LIU ; Yi HU ; Daozhou GAO ; Zhijie ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(6):966-973
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infectious disease caused by various enteroviruses. China has the most significant number of reported cases and deaths of HFMD over the globe. Understanding the epidemic laws of HFMD can provide a scientific basis for designing prevention and control measures. The dynamic transmission models focus on the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases. They can simulate the actual situation to study the epidemic rules of diseases by adding, deleting, and subdividing compartments. More researchers have paid attention to dynamic models because of their high flexibility. To carry out the dynamic model of the HFMD research more effectively, a comprehensive understanding of related research progress in this field is deeply needed. In this paper, based on various researchers' different research purposes of dynamic models, the research progress was classified and summarized, providing meaningful guidance for model construction methods and future research directions and references for dynamic modeling of other models of infectious diseases. It was found that most studies used the SIR dynamic model or its extended model (such as the SEIR model), and few studies contained a complex factor compartment. Some important epidemiological parameters (such as R0) were obtained by studying the HFMD cases in a specific region, simulating different intervention scenarios to evaluate the effect of measures, or revealing the future trend by model prediction. However, there is no dynamic model simultaneously considering age structure, population moving, seasonality and periodicity, and vaccination.
2.A review on using real-world data to study the impact of Enterovirus A71 vaccine on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease
Zheng ZHAO ; Jie HONG ; Qing SU ; Jiaqi HUANG ; Xi CHEN ; Jiaxu LE ; Yi HU ; Zhaorui CHANG ; Zhijie ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(2):310-316
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread infectious disease mainly affecting children aged five and under. In China, the current epidemic situation of HFMD remains severe, with a persistently high and increasing incidence rate, causing a substantial disease burden. A monovalent vaccine against Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), the most common cause of severe and fatal HFMD cases, has been available in China since 2016. Although randomized controlled trials established the vaccine's efficacy among research subjects, this may not reflect the impact under "real world" conditions in the general population. Therefore, based on a systematic literature search, this paper comprehensively reviewed and analyzed relevant studies based on real-world data and collected real-world evidence about the EV-A71 vaccine on the controlling HFMD incidence. It was found that the real-world study of the EV-A71 vaccine on HFMD was few; most were limited to a province or city; there is no study comprehensively considered other important influencing factors in addition to immunization, such as temperature, relative humidity, the age structure of the population, gross domestic product, etc. The progress of using real-world data to study the impact of the EV-A71 vaccine on HFMD reviewed in this study is helpful to have a clear and comprehensive understanding of the status quo and will provide guidance and reference for future studies to assess the short-term and long-term effects of EV-A71 vaccine and other vaccines.