1.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
2.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
3.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
4.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
5.Comparison of Population Attributable Fractions of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Linked to Excess Body Weight in Korea from 2015 to 2030
Youjin HONG ; Jihye AN ; Jeehi JUNG ; Hyeon Sook LEE ; Soseul SUNG ; Sungji MOON ; Inah KIM ; Jung Eun LEE ; Aesun SHIN ; Sun Ha JEE ; Sun-Seog KWEON ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Sangmin PARK ; Seung-Ho RYU ; Sun Young YANG ; Seung Ho CHOI ; Jeongseon KIM ; Sang-Wook YI ; Yoon-Jung CHOI ; Sangjun LEE ; Woojin LIM ; Kyungsik KIM ; Sohee PARK ; Jeong-Soo IM ; Hong Gwan SEO ; Kwang-Pil KO ; Sue K. PARK
Endocrinology and Metabolism 2024;39(6):921-931
Background:
The increasing rate of excess body weight (EBW) in the global population has led to growing health concerns, including cancer-related EBW. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and deaths linked to EBW in Korean individuals from 2015 to 2030 and to compare its value with various body mass index cutoffs.
Methods:
Levin’s formula was used to calculate the PAF; the prevalence rates were computed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, while the relative risks of specific cancers related to EBW were estimated based on the results of Korean cohort studies. To account for the 15-year latency period when estimating the PAF in 2020, the prevalence rates from 2015 and attributable cases or deaths from 2020 were used.
Results:
The PAF attributed to EBW was similar for both cancer incidence and deaths using either the World Health Organization (WHO) Asian-Pacific region standard or a modified Asian standard, with the WHO standard yielding the lowest values. In the Korean population, the PAFs of EBW for cancer incidence were 2.96% in men and 3.61% in women, while those for cancer deaths were 0.67% in men and 3.06% in women in 2020. Additionally, PAFs showed a gradual increase in both sexes until 2030.
Conclusion
The EBW continues to have a significant impact on cancer incidence and deaths in Korea. Effective prevention strategies targeting the reduction of this modifiable risk factor can substantially decrease the cancer burden.
6.Comparison of Population Attributable Fractions of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Linked to Excess Body Weight in Korea from 2015 to 2030
Youjin HONG ; Jihye AN ; Jeehi JUNG ; Hyeon Sook LEE ; Soseul SUNG ; Sungji MOON ; Inah KIM ; Jung Eun LEE ; Aesun SHIN ; Sun Ha JEE ; Sun-Seog KWEON ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Sangmin PARK ; Seung-Ho RYU ; Sun Young YANG ; Seung Ho CHOI ; Jeongseon KIM ; Sang-Wook YI ; Yoon-Jung CHOI ; Sangjun LEE ; Woojin LIM ; Kyungsik KIM ; Sohee PARK ; Jeong-Soo IM ; Hong Gwan SEO ; Kwang-Pil KO ; Sue K. PARK
Endocrinology and Metabolism 2024;39(6):921-931
Background:
The increasing rate of excess body weight (EBW) in the global population has led to growing health concerns, including cancer-related EBW. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and deaths linked to EBW in Korean individuals from 2015 to 2030 and to compare its value with various body mass index cutoffs.
Methods:
Levin’s formula was used to calculate the PAF; the prevalence rates were computed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, while the relative risks of specific cancers related to EBW were estimated based on the results of Korean cohort studies. To account for the 15-year latency period when estimating the PAF in 2020, the prevalence rates from 2015 and attributable cases or deaths from 2020 were used.
Results:
The PAF attributed to EBW was similar for both cancer incidence and deaths using either the World Health Organization (WHO) Asian-Pacific region standard or a modified Asian standard, with the WHO standard yielding the lowest values. In the Korean population, the PAFs of EBW for cancer incidence were 2.96% in men and 3.61% in women, while those for cancer deaths were 0.67% in men and 3.06% in women in 2020. Additionally, PAFs showed a gradual increase in both sexes until 2030.
Conclusion
The EBW continues to have a significant impact on cancer incidence and deaths in Korea. Effective prevention strategies targeting the reduction of this modifiable risk factor can substantially decrease the cancer burden.
7.Comparison of Population Attributable Fractions of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Linked to Excess Body Weight in Korea from 2015 to 2030
Youjin HONG ; Jihye AN ; Jeehi JUNG ; Hyeon Sook LEE ; Soseul SUNG ; Sungji MOON ; Inah KIM ; Jung Eun LEE ; Aesun SHIN ; Sun Ha JEE ; Sun-Seog KWEON ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Sangmin PARK ; Seung-Ho RYU ; Sun Young YANG ; Seung Ho CHOI ; Jeongseon KIM ; Sang-Wook YI ; Yoon-Jung CHOI ; Sangjun LEE ; Woojin LIM ; Kyungsik KIM ; Sohee PARK ; Jeong-Soo IM ; Hong Gwan SEO ; Kwang-Pil KO ; Sue K. PARK
Endocrinology and Metabolism 2024;39(6):921-931
Background:
The increasing rate of excess body weight (EBW) in the global population has led to growing health concerns, including cancer-related EBW. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and deaths linked to EBW in Korean individuals from 2015 to 2030 and to compare its value with various body mass index cutoffs.
Methods:
Levin’s formula was used to calculate the PAF; the prevalence rates were computed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, while the relative risks of specific cancers related to EBW were estimated based on the results of Korean cohort studies. To account for the 15-year latency period when estimating the PAF in 2020, the prevalence rates from 2015 and attributable cases or deaths from 2020 were used.
Results:
The PAF attributed to EBW was similar for both cancer incidence and deaths using either the World Health Organization (WHO) Asian-Pacific region standard or a modified Asian standard, with the WHO standard yielding the lowest values. In the Korean population, the PAFs of EBW for cancer incidence were 2.96% in men and 3.61% in women, while those for cancer deaths were 0.67% in men and 3.06% in women in 2020. Additionally, PAFs showed a gradual increase in both sexes until 2030.
Conclusion
The EBW continues to have a significant impact on cancer incidence and deaths in Korea. Effective prevention strategies targeting the reduction of this modifiable risk factor can substantially decrease the cancer burden.
8.Comparison of Population Attributable Fractions of Cancer Incidence and Mortality Linked to Excess Body Weight in Korea from 2015 to 2030
Youjin HONG ; Jihye AN ; Jeehi JUNG ; Hyeon Sook LEE ; Soseul SUNG ; Sungji MOON ; Inah KIM ; Jung Eun LEE ; Aesun SHIN ; Sun Ha JEE ; Sun-Seog KWEON ; Min-Ho SHIN ; Sangmin PARK ; Seung-Ho RYU ; Sun Young YANG ; Seung Ho CHOI ; Jeongseon KIM ; Sang-Wook YI ; Yoon-Jung CHOI ; Sangjun LEE ; Woojin LIM ; Kyungsik KIM ; Sohee PARK ; Jeong-Soo IM ; Hong Gwan SEO ; Kwang-Pil KO ; Sue K. PARK
Endocrinology and Metabolism 2024;39(6):921-931
Background:
The increasing rate of excess body weight (EBW) in the global population has led to growing health concerns, including cancer-related EBW. We aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer incidence and deaths linked to EBW in Korean individuals from 2015 to 2030 and to compare its value with various body mass index cutoffs.
Methods:
Levin’s formula was used to calculate the PAF; the prevalence rates were computed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, while the relative risks of specific cancers related to EBW were estimated based on the results of Korean cohort studies. To account for the 15-year latency period when estimating the PAF in 2020, the prevalence rates from 2015 and attributable cases or deaths from 2020 were used.
Results:
The PAF attributed to EBW was similar for both cancer incidence and deaths using either the World Health Organization (WHO) Asian-Pacific region standard or a modified Asian standard, with the WHO standard yielding the lowest values. In the Korean population, the PAFs of EBW for cancer incidence were 2.96% in men and 3.61% in women, while those for cancer deaths were 0.67% in men and 3.06% in women in 2020. Additionally, PAFs showed a gradual increase in both sexes until 2030.
Conclusion
The EBW continues to have a significant impact on cancer incidence and deaths in Korea. Effective prevention strategies targeting the reduction of this modifiable risk factor can substantially decrease the cancer burden.
9.Impact of Korean Military Service on the Prevalence of Steatotic Liver Disease: A Longitudinal Study of Pre-enlistment and InService Health Check-Ups
Jaejun LEE ; Jae Hyeop JUNG ; Sung Jun CHOI ; Beomman HA ; Hyun YANG ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jeong-A YU
Gut and Liver 2024;18(5):888-896
Background/Aims:
Young Korean men are obligated to serve in the military for 18 to 21 months. We investigated the effects of military service on steatotic liver disease (SLD) and other metabolic parameters.
Methods:
Pre-enlistment health check-up performed from 2019 to 2022 and in-service health check-up performed from 2020 to 2022 were merged as paired data. SLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of 36 or higher. Hypertension (HTN) and hypertriglyceridemia were also included in the analysis.
Results:
A total of 503,136 paired cases were included in the analysis. Comparing pre-enlistment and in-service health check-ups, the prevalence of SLD (22.2% vs 17.6%, p<0.001), HTN (7.6% vs 4.3%, p<0.001), and hypertriglyceridemia (8.1% vs 2.9%, p<0.001) decreased during military service. In terms of body mass index, the proportion of underweight (8.2% vs 1.4%, p<0.001) and severely obese (6.1% vs 4.9%, p<0.001) individuals decreased over time. Regarding fac-tors associated with SLD development and resolution, age was positively associated with SLD development (odds ratio, 1.146; p<0.001) and a health check-up interval of <450 days was a protective factor for SLD development (odds ratio, 0.746; p<0.001). Those serving in the marines were less likely to develop SLD, whereas those serving in the navy were more likely to develop SLD. Serving in the army or the navy was negatively associated with SLD resolution, whereas serving in the air force was positively associated with SLD resolution.
Conclusions
The prevalence of SLD, HTN, and hypertriglyceridemia decreased substantially during Korean military service.
10.Effect of Biliary Drainage on the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Bile Duct Invasion
Keungmo YANG ; Hyun YANG ; Chang Wook KIM ; Hee Chul NAM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; U Im CHANG ; Jin Mo YANG ; Hae Lim LEE ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Soon Woo NAM ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Ji Won HAN ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Hee Yeon KIM
Gut and Liver 2024;18(5):877-887
Background/Aims:
Bile duct invasion (BDI) is rarely observed in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), leading to hyperbilirubinemia. However, the efficacy of pretreatment biliary drainage for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice is currently unclear. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of biliary drainage on the prognosis of these patients.
Methods:
We retrospectively enrolled a total of 200 HCC patients with BDI from multicenter cohorts. Patients without obstructive jaundice (n=99) and those who did not undergo HCC treatment (n=37) were excluded from further analysis. Finally, 64 patients with obstructive jaundice (43 subjected to drainage and 21 not subjected to drainage) were included. Propensity score matching was then conducted.
Results:
The biliary drainage group showed longer overall survival (median 10.13 months vs 4.43 months, p=0.004) and progression-free survival durations (median 7.00 months vs 1.97 months, p<0.001) than the non-drainage group. Multivariate analysis showed that biliary drainage was a significantly favorable prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.42; p=0.006) and progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.30; p<0.001). Furthermore, in the evaluation of first response after HCC treatment, biliary drainage was beneficial (p=0.005). Remarkably, the durations of overall survival (p=0.032) and progression-free survival (p=0.004) were similar after propensity score matching.
Conclusions
Biliary drainage is an independent favorable prognostic factor for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice. Therefore, biliary drainage should be contemplated in the treatment of advanced HCC with BDI to improve survival outcomes.

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