INTRODUCTIONIn the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.

MATERIALS AND METHODSThe proportion of community-dwelling older adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.

RESULTSBy 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older). Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159 (53%) are estimated to have 3 or more.

CONCLUSIONThe number of elderly Singaporeans with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in 2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.

Activities of Daily Living ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Forecasting ; Health Services for the Aged ; statistics & numerical data ; Homes for the Aged ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Independent Living ; Long-Term Care ; statistics & numerical data ; trends ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Singapore

Background/Aims: Nonagenarians will purportedly account for 10% of the United States population by 2050. However, no studies have assessed the outcomes of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in this age group. Methods: The National Inpatient Sample database between 2016 and 2020 was used to compare the clinical outcomes of NVUGIB in nonagenarians and octogenarians and evaluate predictors of mortality and the use of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Results: Nonagenarians had higher in-hospital mortality than that of octogenarians (4% vs. 3%, p<0.001). EGD utilization (30% vs. 48%, p<0.001) and blood transfusion (27% vs. 40%, p<0.001) was significantly lower in nonagenarians. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that nonagenarians with NVUGIB had higher odds of mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3–1.7) and lower odds of EGD utilization (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83–0.89) than those of octogenarians. Conclusions Nonagenarians admitted with NVUGIB have a higher mortality risk than that of octogenarians. EGD is used significantly in managing NVUGIB among nonagenarians; however, its utilization is comparatively lower than in octogenarians. More studies are needed to assess predictors of poor outcomes and the indications of EGD in this growing population.