1.Predicting Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Urine Metabolomics via Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
Chung-Hsin CHEN ; Hsiang-Po HUANG ; Kai-Hsiung CHANG ; Ming-Shyue LEE ; Cheng-Fan LEE ; Chih-Yu LIN ; Yuan Chi LIN ; William J. HUANG ; Chun-Hou LIAO ; Chih-Chin YU ; Shiu-Dong CHUNG ; Yao-Chou TSAI ; Chia-Chang WU ; Chen-Hsun HO ; Pei-Wen HSIAO ; Yeong-Shiau PU ;
The World Journal of Men's Health 2025;43(2):376-386
Purpose:
Biomarkers predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) before biopsy are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive urine test to predict sPC in at-risk men using urinary metabolomic profiles.
Materials and Methods:
Urine samples from 934 at-risk subjects and 268 treatment-naïve PC patients were subjected to liquid chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics profiling using both C18 and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) column analyses. Four models were constructed (training cohort [n=647]) and validated (validation cohort [n=344]) for different purposes. Model I differentiates PC from benign cases. Models II, III, and a Gleason score model (model GS) predict sPC that is defined as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-categorized favorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model II), unfavorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model III), and GS ≥7 PC (model GS), respectively. The metabolomic panels and predicting models were constructed using logistic regression and Akaike information criterion.
Results:
The best metabolomic panels from the HILIC column include 25, 27, 28 and 26 metabolites in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.82 and 0.91 in the training cohort and between 0.77 and 0.86 in the validation cohort. The combination of the metabolomic panels and five baseline clinical factors that include serum prostate-specific antigen, age, family history of PC, previously negative biopsy, and abnormal digital rectal examination results significantly increased AUCs (range 0.88–0.91). At 90% sensitivity (validation cohort), 33%, 34%, 41%, and 36% of unnecessary biopsies were avoided in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively. The above results were successfully validated using LC-MS with the C18 column.
Conclusions
Urinary metabolomic profiles with baseline clinical factors may accurately predict sPC in men with elevated risk before biopsy.
2.Predicting Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Urine Metabolomics via Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
Chung-Hsin CHEN ; Hsiang-Po HUANG ; Kai-Hsiung CHANG ; Ming-Shyue LEE ; Cheng-Fan LEE ; Chih-Yu LIN ; Yuan Chi LIN ; William J. HUANG ; Chun-Hou LIAO ; Chih-Chin YU ; Shiu-Dong CHUNG ; Yao-Chou TSAI ; Chia-Chang WU ; Chen-Hsun HO ; Pei-Wen HSIAO ; Yeong-Shiau PU ;
The World Journal of Men's Health 2025;43(2):376-386
Purpose:
Biomarkers predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) before biopsy are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive urine test to predict sPC in at-risk men using urinary metabolomic profiles.
Materials and Methods:
Urine samples from 934 at-risk subjects and 268 treatment-naïve PC patients were subjected to liquid chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics profiling using both C18 and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) column analyses. Four models were constructed (training cohort [n=647]) and validated (validation cohort [n=344]) for different purposes. Model I differentiates PC from benign cases. Models II, III, and a Gleason score model (model GS) predict sPC that is defined as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-categorized favorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model II), unfavorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model III), and GS ≥7 PC (model GS), respectively. The metabolomic panels and predicting models were constructed using logistic regression and Akaike information criterion.
Results:
The best metabolomic panels from the HILIC column include 25, 27, 28 and 26 metabolites in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.82 and 0.91 in the training cohort and between 0.77 and 0.86 in the validation cohort. The combination of the metabolomic panels and five baseline clinical factors that include serum prostate-specific antigen, age, family history of PC, previously negative biopsy, and abnormal digital rectal examination results significantly increased AUCs (range 0.88–0.91). At 90% sensitivity (validation cohort), 33%, 34%, 41%, and 36% of unnecessary biopsies were avoided in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively. The above results were successfully validated using LC-MS with the C18 column.
Conclusions
Urinary metabolomic profiles with baseline clinical factors may accurately predict sPC in men with elevated risk before biopsy.
3.Predicting Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Urine Metabolomics via Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
Chung-Hsin CHEN ; Hsiang-Po HUANG ; Kai-Hsiung CHANG ; Ming-Shyue LEE ; Cheng-Fan LEE ; Chih-Yu LIN ; Yuan Chi LIN ; William J. HUANG ; Chun-Hou LIAO ; Chih-Chin YU ; Shiu-Dong CHUNG ; Yao-Chou TSAI ; Chia-Chang WU ; Chen-Hsun HO ; Pei-Wen HSIAO ; Yeong-Shiau PU ;
The World Journal of Men's Health 2025;43(2):376-386
Purpose:
Biomarkers predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) before biopsy are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive urine test to predict sPC in at-risk men using urinary metabolomic profiles.
Materials and Methods:
Urine samples from 934 at-risk subjects and 268 treatment-naïve PC patients were subjected to liquid chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics profiling using both C18 and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) column analyses. Four models were constructed (training cohort [n=647]) and validated (validation cohort [n=344]) for different purposes. Model I differentiates PC from benign cases. Models II, III, and a Gleason score model (model GS) predict sPC that is defined as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-categorized favorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model II), unfavorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model III), and GS ≥7 PC (model GS), respectively. The metabolomic panels and predicting models were constructed using logistic regression and Akaike information criterion.
Results:
The best metabolomic panels from the HILIC column include 25, 27, 28 and 26 metabolites in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.82 and 0.91 in the training cohort and between 0.77 and 0.86 in the validation cohort. The combination of the metabolomic panels and five baseline clinical factors that include serum prostate-specific antigen, age, family history of PC, previously negative biopsy, and abnormal digital rectal examination results significantly increased AUCs (range 0.88–0.91). At 90% sensitivity (validation cohort), 33%, 34%, 41%, and 36% of unnecessary biopsies were avoided in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively. The above results were successfully validated using LC-MS with the C18 column.
Conclusions
Urinary metabolomic profiles with baseline clinical factors may accurately predict sPC in men with elevated risk before biopsy.
4.Predicting Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Urine Metabolomics via Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
Chung-Hsin CHEN ; Hsiang-Po HUANG ; Kai-Hsiung CHANG ; Ming-Shyue LEE ; Cheng-Fan LEE ; Chih-Yu LIN ; Yuan Chi LIN ; William J. HUANG ; Chun-Hou LIAO ; Chih-Chin YU ; Shiu-Dong CHUNG ; Yao-Chou TSAI ; Chia-Chang WU ; Chen-Hsun HO ; Pei-Wen HSIAO ; Yeong-Shiau PU ;
The World Journal of Men's Health 2025;43(2):376-386
Purpose:
Biomarkers predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) before biopsy are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive urine test to predict sPC in at-risk men using urinary metabolomic profiles.
Materials and Methods:
Urine samples from 934 at-risk subjects and 268 treatment-naïve PC patients were subjected to liquid chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics profiling using both C18 and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) column analyses. Four models were constructed (training cohort [n=647]) and validated (validation cohort [n=344]) for different purposes. Model I differentiates PC from benign cases. Models II, III, and a Gleason score model (model GS) predict sPC that is defined as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-categorized favorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model II), unfavorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model III), and GS ≥7 PC (model GS), respectively. The metabolomic panels and predicting models were constructed using logistic regression and Akaike information criterion.
Results:
The best metabolomic panels from the HILIC column include 25, 27, 28 and 26 metabolites in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.82 and 0.91 in the training cohort and between 0.77 and 0.86 in the validation cohort. The combination of the metabolomic panels and five baseline clinical factors that include serum prostate-specific antigen, age, family history of PC, previously negative biopsy, and abnormal digital rectal examination results significantly increased AUCs (range 0.88–0.91). At 90% sensitivity (validation cohort), 33%, 34%, 41%, and 36% of unnecessary biopsies were avoided in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively. The above results were successfully validated using LC-MS with the C18 column.
Conclusions
Urinary metabolomic profiles with baseline clinical factors may accurately predict sPC in men with elevated risk before biopsy.
5.Predicting Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Urine Metabolomics via Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry
Chung-Hsin CHEN ; Hsiang-Po HUANG ; Kai-Hsiung CHANG ; Ming-Shyue LEE ; Cheng-Fan LEE ; Chih-Yu LIN ; Yuan Chi LIN ; William J. HUANG ; Chun-Hou LIAO ; Chih-Chin YU ; Shiu-Dong CHUNG ; Yao-Chou TSAI ; Chia-Chang WU ; Chen-Hsun HO ; Pei-Wen HSIAO ; Yeong-Shiau PU ;
The World Journal of Men's Health 2025;43(2):376-386
Purpose:
Biomarkers predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) before biopsy are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop a non-invasive urine test to predict sPC in at-risk men using urinary metabolomic profiles.
Materials and Methods:
Urine samples from 934 at-risk subjects and 268 treatment-naïve PC patients were subjected to liquid chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics profiling using both C18 and hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) column analyses. Four models were constructed (training cohort [n=647]) and validated (validation cohort [n=344]) for different purposes. Model I differentiates PC from benign cases. Models II, III, and a Gleason score model (model GS) predict sPC that is defined as National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-categorized favorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model II), unfavorable-intermediate risk group or higher (Model III), and GS ≥7 PC (model GS), respectively. The metabolomic panels and predicting models were constructed using logistic regression and Akaike information criterion.
Results:
The best metabolomic panels from the HILIC column include 25, 27, 28 and 26 metabolites in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging between 0.82 and 0.91 in the training cohort and between 0.77 and 0.86 in the validation cohort. The combination of the metabolomic panels and five baseline clinical factors that include serum prostate-specific antigen, age, family history of PC, previously negative biopsy, and abnormal digital rectal examination results significantly increased AUCs (range 0.88–0.91). At 90% sensitivity (validation cohort), 33%, 34%, 41%, and 36% of unnecessary biopsies were avoided in Models I, II, III, and GS, respectively. The above results were successfully validated using LC-MS with the C18 column.
Conclusions
Urinary metabolomic profiles with baseline clinical factors may accurately predict sPC in men with elevated risk before biopsy.
6.Clinical characteristics and prognosis of chronic disseminated candidiasis in children with acute leukemia following chemotherapy: a multicenter clinical study.
Xin-Hong JIANG ; Pei-Jun LIU ; Chun-Ping WU ; Kai-Zhi WENG ; Shu-Quan ZHUANG ; Shu-Xian HUANG ; Xiao-Fang WANG ; Yong-Zhi ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(5):540-547
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the clinical characteristics and prognosis of chronic disseminated candidiasis (CDC) in children with acute leukemia (AL) following chemotherapy.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on children diagnosed with CDC (including confirmed, clinically diagnosed, and suspected cases) after AL chemotherapy from January 2015 to December 2023 at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Zhangzhou Municipal Hospital, and Quanzhou First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University. Clinical characteristics and prognosis were analyzed.
RESULTS:
The incidence of CDC in children with AL following chemotherapy was 1.92% (32/1 668). Among the children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, the incidence of CDC in the high-risk group was significantly higher than in the low-risk group (P=0.002). All patients presented with fever unresponsive to antibiotics during the neutropenic period, with 81% (26/32) involving the liver. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were significantly elevated (≥50 mg/L) in 97% (31/32) of the patients. The efficacy of combined therapy with liposomal amphotericin B and caspofungin or posaconazole for CDC was 66% (19/29), higher than with caspofungin (9%, 2/22) or liposomal amphotericin B (18%, 2/11) monotherapy. The overall cure rate was 72% (23/32). The proportion of patients with CRP ≥50 mg/L and/or a positive β-D-glucan test for more than 2 weeks and breakthrough infections during caspofungin treatment was significantly higher in the treatment failure group compared to the successful treatment group (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
CDC in children with AL after chemotherapy may be associated with prolonged neutropenia due to intensive chemotherapy. Combination antifungal regimens based on liposomal amphotericin B have a higher cure rate, while persistently high CRP levels and positive β-D-glucan tests may indicate poor prognosis.
Adolescent
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Child
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Child, Preschool
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Female
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Humans
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Infant
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Male
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Antifungal Agents/therapeutic use*
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Candidiasis/diagnosis*
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Chronic Disease
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Leukemia/complications*
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Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma/complications*
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Prognosis
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Retrospective Studies
7.Clinical Study on Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription Combined with Drug-Coated Balloon in the Treatment of Coronary Heart Disease of Qi Deficiency and Phlegm Stasis Obstructing Collateral Type
Mei-Chun HUANG ; Yu-Peng LIANG ; Pei-Zhong LIU ; Sheng-Yun ZHANG ; Se PENG ; Chuang-Peng LI ; He-Zhen ZHANG ; Tian-Wei LAI ; Chang-Jiang AI ; Qing LIU ; Ai-Meng ZHANG ; Shao-Hui LI
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(10):2656-2662
Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription(mainly composed of Fici Simplicissimae Radix,Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma,Pinelliae Rhizoma Praeparatum,Poria,Nelumbinis Folium,and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma,etc.)combined with drug-coated balloon(DCB)in the treatment of coronary heart disease(CHD)and to observe its effect on low-shear related serological indicators.Methods A total of 106 patients with CHD of qi deficiency and phlegm stasis obstructing collateral type who were scheduled to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention were randomly divided into a treatment group and a control group,with 53 cases in each group.The control group was treated with drug-eluting stent implantation,and the treatment group was treated with DCB.After the operation,the control group was given conventional antiplatelet aggregation drugs,and the treatment group was given oral administration of Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription.The medication for the two groups lasted for 12 weeks.The changes in the serum levels of monocyte chemoattractant protein 1(MCP-1),interleukin 1 β(IL-1β)and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)in the two groups were observed before and after treatment.Moreover,the traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)syndrome efficacy after treatment and the incidence of adverse events one year after operation were compared between the two groups.Results(1)After 12 weeks of treatment,the total effective rate for TCM syndrome efficacy of the treatment group was 88.68%(47/53),and that of the control group was 75.47%(40/53).The intergroup comparison(tested by chi-square test)showed that the TCM syndrome efficacy in the treatment group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(2)The analysis of indicators related to endothelial dysfunction in the blood flow with low shear stress showed that after treatment,the levels of serum MCP-1,IL-1βand VEGF in the control group presented no obvious changes(P>0.05),but the serum levels of MCP-1 and IL-1β in the treatment group were significantly lowered compared with those before treatment(P<0.05).The intergroup comparison showed that the decrease of serum MCP-1,IL-1β and VEGF levels in the treatment group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(3)The one-year follow-up after the operation showed that the total incidence of adverse events in the treatment group was 18.87%(10/53),and that in the control group was 20.75%(11/53).There was no significant difference between the two groups(P>0.05).Conclusion Yiqi Huatan Tongluo Prescription combined with DCB has definite action on the targets related to endothelial dysfunction in coronary blood flow with low shear stress,which is conducive to reducing inflammatory response,improving the symptoms of angina pectoris and enhancing clinical efficacy.The incidence of adverse events did not increase one year after operation,indicating good safety and effectiveness.
8.Artificial intelligence predicts direct-acting antivirals failure among hepatitis C virus patients: A nationwide hepatitis C virus registry program
Ming-Ying LU ; Chung-Feng HUANG ; Chao-Hung HUNG ; Chi‐Ming TAI ; Lein-Ray MO ; Hsing-Tao KUO ; Kuo-Chih TSENG ; Ching-Chu LO ; Ming-Jong BAIR ; Szu-Jen WANG ; Jee-Fu HUANG ; Ming-Lun YEH ; Chun-Ting CHEN ; Ming-Chang TSAI ; Chien-Wei HUANG ; Pei-Lun LEE ; Tzeng-Hue YANG ; Yi-Hsiang HUANG ; Lee-Won CHONG ; Chien-Lin CHEN ; Chi-Chieh YANG ; Sheng‐Shun YANG ; Pin-Nan CHENG ; Tsai-Yuan HSIEH ; Jui-Ting HU ; Wen-Chih WU ; Chien-Yu CHENG ; Guei-Ying CHEN ; Guo-Xiong ZHOU ; Wei-Lun TSAI ; Chien-Neng KAO ; Chih-Lang LIN ; Chia-Chi WANG ; Ta-Ya LIN ; Chih‐Lin LIN ; Wei-Wen SU ; Tzong-Hsi LEE ; Te-Sheng CHANG ; Chun-Jen LIU ; Chia-Yen DAI ; Jia-Horng KAO ; Han-Chieh LIN ; Wan-Long CHUANG ; Cheng-Yuan PENG ; Chun-Wei- TSAI ; Chi-Yi CHEN ; Ming-Lung YU ;
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2024;30(1):64-79
Background/Aims:
Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1–3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy.
Methods:
We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment.
Results:
The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset.
Conclusions
Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.
9.Metformin and statins reduce hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis C patients with failed antiviral therapy
Pei-Chien TSAI ; Chung-Feng HUANG ; Ming-Lun YEH ; Meng-Hsuan HSIEH ; Hsing-Tao KUO ; Chao-Hung HUNG ; Kuo-Chih TSENG ; Hsueh-Chou LAI ; Cheng-Yuan PENG ; Jing-Houng WANG ; Jyh-Jou CHEN ; Pei-Lun LEE ; Rong-Nan CHIEN ; Chi-Chieh YANG ; Gin-Ho LO ; Jia-Horng KAO ; Chun-Jen LIU ; Chen-Hua LIU ; Sheng-Lei YAN ; Chun-Yen LIN ; Wei-Wen SU ; Cheng-Hsin CHU ; Chih-Jen CHEN ; Shui-Yi TUNG ; Chi‐Ming TAI ; Chih-Wen LIN ; Ching-Chu LO ; Pin-Nan CHENG ; Yen-Cheng CHIU ; Chia-Chi WANG ; Jin-Shiung CHENG ; Wei-Lun TSAI ; Han-Chieh LIN ; Yi-Hsiang HUANG ; Chi-Yi CHEN ; Jee-Fu HUANG ; Chia-Yen DAI ; Wan-Long CHUNG ; Ming-Jong BAIR ; Ming-Lung YU ;
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2024;30(3):468-486
Background/Aims:
Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who failed antiviral therapy are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the potential role of metformin and statins, medications for diabetes mellitus (DM) and hyperlipidemia (HLP), in reducing HCC risk among these patients.
Methods:
We included CHC patients from the T-COACH study who failed antiviral therapy. We tracked the onset of HCC 1.5 years post-therapy by linking to Taiwan’s cancer registry data from 2003 to 2019. We accounted for death and liver transplantation as competing risks and employed Gray’s cumulative incidence and Cox subdistribution hazards models to analyze HCC development.
Results:
Out of 2,779 patients, 480 (17.3%) developed HCC post-therapy. DM patients not using metformin had a 51% increased risk of HCC compared to non-DM patients, while HLP patients on statins had a 50% reduced risk compared to those without HLP. The 5-year HCC incidence was significantly higher for metformin non-users (16.5%) versus non-DM patients (11.3%; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio [aSHR]=1.51; P=0.007) and metformin users (3.1%; aSHR=1.59; P=0.022). Statin use in HLP patients correlated with a lower HCC risk (3.8%) compared to non-HLP patients (12.5%; aSHR=0.50; P<0.001). Notably, the increased HCC risk associated with non-use of metformin was primarily seen in non-cirrhotic patients, whereas statins decreased HCC risk in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients.
Conclusions
Metformin and statins may have a chemopreventive effect against HCC in CHC patients who failed antiviral therapy. These results support the need for personalized preventive strategies in managing HCC risk.
10.Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma
Chun-Ting HO ; Elise Chia-Hui TAN ; Pei-Chang LEE ; Chi-Jen CHU ; Yi-Hsiang HUANG ; Teh-Ia HUO ; Yu-Hui SU ; Ming-Chih HOU ; Jaw-Ching WU ; Chien-Wei SU
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2024;30(3):406-420
Background/Aims:
The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.
Methods:
The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.
Results:
In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.
Conclusions
Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

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