OBJECTIVE: To constitute school sanitation standard using modified Delphi method, and to explore the feasibility and the predominance of Delphi method in the constitution of school sanitation standard. METHODS: Two rounds of expert consultations were adopted in this study. The data were analyzed with SPSS15.0 to screen indices of school sanitation standard. RESULTS: Thirty-two experts accomplished the 2 rounds of consultations. The average length of expert service was (24.69 ±8.53) years. The authority coefficient was 0.729 ±0.172. The expert positive coefficient was 94.12% (32/34) in the first round and 100% (32/32) in the second round. The harmonious coefficients of importance, feasibility and rationality in the second round were 0.493 (P<0.05), 0.527 (P<0.01), and 0.535 (P<0.01), respectively, suggesting unanimous expert opinions. According to the second round of consultation, 38 indices were included in the framework. CONCLUSION Theoretical analysis, literature review, investigation and so on are generally used in health standard constitution currently. Delphi method is a rapid, effective and feasible method in this field.
China ; Delphi Technique ; Feasibility Studies ; Hygiene ; standards ; Public Health Administration ; methods ; Schools ; standards

Objective:To explore the prognostic significance of preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in patients with stage Ⅳ colon cancer with simultaneous liver and/or lung metastasis, and establish a predictive model.Methods:Using the SEER database, 5 149 patients diagnosed with colon cancer from 2010 to 2015 were collected based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. They were divided into a CEA positive group and a CEA negative group based on their preoperative CEA status. Based on the different CEA status and metastatic sites, we plotted different survival curves and analyzed the differences using the Log rank method. We used the Cox proportional risk model to analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with simultaneous liver and/or lung metastasis in colon cancer, and constructed a column chart based on the results. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of different variable models was calculated and the model discrimination wasevaluated. By using x-tile software, the optimal cutoff value for individual total scores was selected and risk levels were classified to predict patient prognosis.Results:CEA positive colon cancer patients with liver and/or lung metastasis had a poor prognosis, with a 5-year survival rate of 13.4%. Cox proportional risk analysis showed that CEA positive patients had an increased risk of death compared to negative patients after adjusting for other factors ( HR=1.64). After incorporating the CEA+ X, X (independent risk factors other than CEA), and AJCC T+ N models, the areas under the ROC curve were 0.712, 0.706, and 0.59, respectively. According to the prediction score given in the column chart, the x-tilie selected for the best cutoff score was 262.5, which can be divided into high-risk and low-risk populations. The Log rank test was P<0.05. Conclusions:The preoperative CEA level has important predictive value for the prognosis of stage IV colon cancer patients with simultaneous liver and/or lung metastasis. The survival prediction model and column chart for colorectal cancer patients with liver and/or lung metastasis established based on the Cox proportional risk model are of great significance for patient prognosis evaluation and are conducive to the selection of personalized treatment plans.