1.Allogeneic lung transplantation in miniature pigs and postoperative monitoring
Yaobo ZHAO ; Ullah SALMAN ; Kaiyan BAO ; Hua KUI ; Taiyun WEI ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Xiaoting TAO ; Xinzhong NING ; Yong LIU ; Guimei ZHANG ; He XIAO ; Jiaoxiang WANG ; Chang YANG ; Feiyan ZHU ; Kaixiang XU ; Kun QIAO ; Hongjiang WEI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):95-105
Objective To explore the feasibility and reference value of allogeneic lung transplantation and postoperative monitoring in miniature pigs for lung transplantation research. Methods Two miniature pigs (R1 and R2) underwent left lung allogeneic transplantation. Complement-dependent cytotoxicity tests and blood cross-matching were performed before surgery. The main operative times and partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2) after opening the pulmonary artery were recorded during surgery. Postoperatively, routine blood tests, biochemical blood indicators and inflammatory factors were detected, and pathological examinations of multiple organs were conducted. Results The complement-dependent cytotoxicity test showed that the survival rate of lymphocytes between donors and recipients was 42.5%-47.3%, and no agglutination reaction occurred in the cross-matching. The first warm ischemia times of D1 and D2 were 17 min and 10 min, respectively, and the cold ischemia times were 246 min and 216 min, respectively. Ultimately, R1 and R2 survived for 1.5 h and 104 h, respectively. Postoperatively, in R1, albumin (ALB) and globulin (GLB) decreased, and alanine aminotransferase increased; in R2, ALB, GLB and aspartate aminotransferase all increased. Urea nitrogen and serum creatinine increased in both recipients. Pathological results showed that in R1, the transplanted lung had partial consolidation with inflammatory cell infiltration, and multiple organs were congested and damaged. In R2, the transplanted lung had severe necrosis with fibrosis, and multiple organs had mild to moderate damage. The expression levels of interleukin-1β and interleukin-6 increased in the transplanted lungs. Conclusions The allogeneic lung transplantation model in miniature pigs may systematically evaluate immunological compatibility, intraoperative function and postoperative organ damage. The data obtained may provide technical references for subsequent lung transplantation research.
2.Production of GTKO pigs and kidney xenotransplantation from pigs to rhesus macaques
Yan WANG ; Yue CHANG ; Chang YANG ; Taiyun WEI ; Xiaoying HUO ; Bowei CHEN ; Jiaoxiang WANG ; Heng ZHAO ; Jianxiong GUO ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Xiong ZHANG ; Feiyan ZHU ; Wenmin CHENG ; Hongye ZHAO ; Kaixiang XU ; Ameen Jamal MUHAMMAD ; Zhendi WANG ; Hongjiang WEI
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(4):526-537
Objective To explore the construction of α-1,3-galactosyltransferase (GGTA1) gene-knockout (GTKO) Diannan miniature pigs and the kidney xenotransplantation from pigs to rhesus macaques, and to assess the effectiveness of GTKO pigs. Methods The GTKO Diannan miniature pigs were constructed using the CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing system and somatic cell cloning technology. The phenotype of GTKO pigs was verified through polymerase chain reaction, Sanger sequencing and immunofluorescence staining. Flow cytometry was used to detect antigen-antibody (IgM) binding and complement-dependent cytotoxicity. Kidney xenotransplantation was performed from GTKO pigs to rhesus macaques. The humoral immunity, cellular immunity, coagulation and physiological indicators of the recipient monkeys were monitored. The function and pathological changes of the transplanted kidneys were analyzed using ultrasonography, hematoxylin-eosin staining, immunohistochemical staining and immunofluorescence staining. Results Single-guide RNA (sgRNA) targeting exon 4 of the GGTA1 gene in Diannan miniature pigs was designed. The pGL3-GGTA1-sgRNA1-GFP vector was transfected into fetal fibroblasts of Diannan miniature pigs. After puromycin selection, two cell clones, C59# and C89#, were identified as GGTA1 gene-knockout clones. These clones were expanded to form cell lines, which were used as donor cells for somatic cell nuclear transfer. The reconstructed embryos were transferred into the oviducts of trihybrid surrogate sows, resulting in 13 fetal pigs. Among them, fetuses F04 and F11 exhibited biallelic mutations in the GGTA1 gene, and F04 had a normal karyotype. Using this GTKO fetal pig for recloning and transferring the reconstructed embryos into the oviducts of trihybrid surrogate sows, seven surviving piglets were obtained, all of which did not express α-Gal epitope. The binding of IgM from the serum of rhesus monkey 20# to GTKO pig PBMC was reduced, and the survival rate of GTKO pig PBMC in the complement-dependent cytotoxicity assay was higher than that of wild-type pig. GTKO pig kidneys were harvested and perfused until completely white. After the left kidney of the recipient monkey was removed, the pig kidney was heterotopically transplanted. Following vascular anastomosis and blood flow restoration, the pig kidney rapidly turned pink without hyperacute rejection (HAR). Urine appeared in the ureter 6 minutes later, indicating successful kidney transplantation. The right kidney of the recipient was then removed. Seven days after transplantation, the transplanted kidney had good blood flow, the recipient monkey's serum creatinine level was stable, and serum potassium and cystatin C levels were effectively controlled, although they increased 10 days after transplantation. Seven days after transplantation, the levels of white blood cells, lymphocytes, monocytes and eosinophils in the recipient monkey increased, while platelet count and fibrinogen levels decreased. The activated partial thromboplastin time, thrombin time and prothrombin time remained relatively stable but later showed an upward trend. The recipient monkey survived for 10 days. At autopsy, the transplanted kidney was found to be congested, swollen and necrotic, with a small amount of IgG deposition in the renal tissue, and a large amount of IgM, complement C3c and C4d deposition, as well as CD68+ macrophage infiltration. Conclusions The kidneys of GTKO Diannan miniature pigs may maintain normal renal function for a certain period in rhesus macaques and effectively overcome HAR, confirming the effectiveness of GTKO pigs for xenotransplantation.
3.Machine learning-based screening of risk factors of early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia and establishment of a Nomogram predic-tion model
Jing XIE ; Li PU ; Zhengjing WANG ; Hongfang HU ; Liang FENG ; Su ZHAO
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2025;45(2):115-119
Objective To analyze the risk factors associated with early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exo-tropia and establish a Nomogram prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 243 cases(486 eyes)of concomitant exotropia treated in the Ophthalmology Department of our hospital from October 2015 to October 2021.The patients were divided into a training set(n=170)and a validation set(n=73)at a ratio of 7∶3.The Lasso re-gression,Boruta algorithm,and random forest algorithm were used to screen risk variables related to postoperative recur-rence of concomitant exotropia.The Spearman correlation analysis and variance inflation factor(VIF)were used to assess collinearity among variables,and a Nomogram prediction model was established using multivariate Cox regression.The re-ceiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,and clinical decision curve of the model at 6 months,18 months,and 24 months after surgery were used to assess the efficacy of the model.Results Three machine learning methods in-cluding Lasso regression,Boruta algorithm,and random forest algorithm identified six significant variables that might con-tribute to early recurrence after strabismus surgery from 22 risk variables in both training and validation sets.No collineari-ty was found among the six variables(r<0.6,VIF<5).Multivariate Cox regression revealed that strabismus type(inter-mittent exotropia),preoperative strabismus angle,best-corrected visual acuity(BCVA)in the right eye,BCVA in both eyes,and surgical procedures(unilateral lateral rectus recession)were risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia.Meanwhile,a Nomogram prediction model was constructed based on these 6 factors.The receiver operating characteristic,calibration,and clinical decision curves indicated that the prediction model had good accuracy,consistency,and clinical applicability.Conclusion Nomogram prediction model can effectively predict the risk of early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia,and provides a reference for ophthalmologists to intervene early in pa-tients.
4.Age-period-cohort analysis and prediction of the disease burden of age-relat-ed macular degeneration in China from 1990 to 2021
Jing XIE ; Zhengjing WANG ; Mei YANG ; Hongfang HU ; Liang FENG ; Su ZHAO
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2025;45(1):33-38
Objective To analyze the changing trend of the disease burden of age-related macular degeneration(AMD)in China from 1990 to 2021 and the impact of age,period,and cohort effects,and to predict the standardized prev-alence and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate of AMD in China from 2022 to 2035.Methods The data on the preva-lence of AMD,the number of AMD patients,DALYs,and DALY rates in China from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD 2021).The segmented regression model was used to analyze the trend changes in the prev-alence and DALY of patients with AMD in China,the age-period-cohort(APC)model was employed to estimate the age,period,and cohort effects related to the prevalence risk and DALY risk of AMD,and the Bayesian age-period cohort model was used to analyze the standardized prevalence and DALY rate of AMD in China from 2022 to 2035.Results Compared with 1990,the number of AMD patients and the prevalence of this disease in China in 2021 increased by 199.94%and 148.02%,respectively,and the DALYs and DALY rate increased by 183.95%and 134.80%,respectively,with the higher value of relevant indicators observed in females compared with males.From 1990 to 2021,the standardized prevalence of AMD in China showed an increasing trend,with the average annual percentage change(AAPC)being 0.17%.In contrast,the standardized DALY rate of AMD showed a decreasing trend,with the AAPC being-0.03%.The results of the age-peri-od-cohort model showed that the longitudinal age curves for both the prevalence and DALY rate of AMD in China showed an increasing and then decreasing trend,peaking at 85-89 years of age.Over time,the prevalence risk of AMD increased and then decreased,while the DALY risk continued to decline.The birth cohort analysis results showed that the overall fluctua-tion of the AMD prevalence risk cohort effect in China was small,with a decline first and then a fluctuating increase.Mean-while,the DALY risk gradually decreased as the birth cohort moved backward.It can be predicted that both the standard-ized prevalence and the standardized DALY rate of AMD may present an upward trend in China from 2022 to 2035.Conclu-sion From 1990 to 2021,the standardized prevalence of AMD in China displays an upward trend,while its standardized DALY rate exhibits a downward trend.Notably,the disease burden is more pronounced in the female population compared with the male population.With the continued aging of the population,it can be predicted that both the standardized preva-lence and DALY rate of AMD will escalate from 2022 to 2035.This finding underscores the need for targeted interventions,particularly for elderly women.Meanwhile,it is necessary to enhance health education for the whole population and formu-late effective public health policies to alleviate the disease burden associated with AMD in China.
5.Establishment of Allogeneic Kidney Transplantation Technical System in Banna Miniature Pig Inbred Strain
Ying ZHANG ; Ziwei PENG ; Chang YANG ; Jing WANG ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Gen CHEN ; Hongye ZHAO ; Hongjiang WEI
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2025;45(5):623-633
Objective To establish a technical system for allogeneic kidney transplantation surgery in pigs using the Banna miniature pig inbred strain,and to evaluate it through routine blood tests,liver and kidney function tests,thus providing reference data for the preparation of allogeneic kidney transplantation models.Methods A total of 4 cases of allogeneic kidney transplantation surgeries were performed,including 1 case of single kidney transplantation in a healthy pig,2 cases of kidney transplantation after unilateral nephrectomy,and 1 case of kidney transplantation after bilateral nephrectomy.Before kidney transplantation,cross-matching and complement-dependent cytotoxicity(CDC)tests were used for matching between donor and recipient pigs.After kidney transplantation,peripheral blood samples were regularly collected from pigs for routine blood tests,liver function tests,and kidney function tests,and color Doppler ultrasound technology was used to detect blood supply to the transplanted kidneys.After reaching the experimental endpoint,both kidneys of pig DR1 and the left kidney of pig DR3 were collected and hematoxylin-eosin(HE)staining was performed to evaluate pathological changes in the transplanted kidneys.Results Recipient pigs DR1 and DR3 died at 17 days and 30 days after surgery respectively,while recipient pigs R and DR2 remained in good condition during the 30-day observation period.The results of liver and kidney function test showed that in pig DR1,alanine aminotransferase(ALT)levels increased on postoperative day 1(>1 000 U/L),peaked on postoperative day 7(1 300 U/L),and aspartate aminotransferase(AST)levels peaked on postoperative day 1(>3 000 U/L).On postoperative day 17,ALT and AST levels remained high(ALT,500 U/L;AST,700 U/L).In pigs R,DR2,and DR3,ALT and AST levels returned to normal around day 17.Serum creatinine(Crea)levels in pig R remained stable without postoperative increase.Crea levels in pigs DR1 and DR2 showed transient elevation on postoperative day 1,then gradually returned to normal(<100 μmol/L).Crea levels in pig DR3 remained below 500 μmol/L from postoperative days 2-10,but increased between days 11-28,reaching up to 1 500 μmol/L,indicating gradual loss of kidney function.Ultrasound results showed that the preoperative resistive index(RI)of recipient pig R was 0.91.On postoperative day 24,renal cortex and medulla showed abundant blood flow signals with RI value of 0.88,which was close to the pre-transplantation RI value.For pig DR2,the RI value on postoperative day 17 was 0.89,with poor renal cortex blood flow and relatively good renal medulla blood flow.In pig DR1 on postoperative day 17,no blood flow signals were detected in the transplanted kidney.HE staining results showed that the non-transplanted healthy right kidney of pig DR1 had normal structure,while the transplanted left kidney showed blurred glomerular structure and nuclear dissolution,indicating that the left kidney had lost function before removal.In the transplanted left kidney of pig DR3,large numbers of red blood cells and lymphocyte infiltration were observed in glomeruli and renal tubules,indicating possible coagulation dysfunction and rejection reactions after kidney transplantation.Conclusion Banna miniature pig inbred strain is used as experimental animals to perform four cases of allogeneic pig-to-pig kidney transplantation.The physiological parameters of the recipient pig and the function of the transplanted kidney are monitored after surgery using routine blood tests,liver and kidney function tests,color Doppler ultrasound,and pathological examinations.The allogeneic pig-to-pig kidney transplantation technical system established in the study can provide a foundation for clinicians to conduct kidney transplantation surgeries.
6.Establishment of a method for acquisition, perfusion, preservation and transportation of the genetically modified donor pig kidneys
Feiyan ZHU ; Yaobo ZHAO ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Taiyun WEI ; Wenjie CHENG ; Kai LIU ; Yuexiao BAO ; Yaling LOU ; Hongjiang WEI ; Kaixiang XU
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):272-279
Objective To establish a method for acquisition, perfusion, preservation and transportation of the genetically modified pig kidneys. Methods An eight genetically modified pig was utilized as experimental subject. Prior to kidneys procurement, the health status of the pig was assessed through hematology examination, and the vascular structure of the kidneys was examined using imaging techniques. Following kidneys acquisition, the pig kidneys were perfused and subsequently packaged into the cryogenic storage container labeled "For Organ Transportation Only" for interprovincial transport after communicating the transportation process with transportation department. To evaluate pathological damage to the pig kidneys, a serious of methods were employed such as hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining, real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) fluorescence staining and enzyme-linked immune absorbent assay (ELISA). Results The preoperative examination of the eight genetically modified pig showed that the serum creatinine was 73.2 μmol/L, blood urea nitrogen was 2.8 mmol/L and hemoglobin was 116 g/L, all within the normal range, indicating normal renal function. CT angiography revealed no lesions in the pig kidneys, and no dilation, stenosis or premature branching of the blood vessels. The total time of obtaining the left and right kidneys from the eight genetically modified pig was (125 ± 10) min, with a blood loss of (20 ± 2) mL. The warm ischemia times were 3 min and 7 min, respectively. The perfusion and trimming times of the left and right kidneys were 36 min and 41 min, respectively. After perfusion, both kidneys were white and moist. The cold preservation and transportation time was 8 h. HE staining showed that some glomeruli were shrunk, and the lumens of the surrounding renal tubules were slightly depressed and swollen with partial inner membrane shedding and microvacuoles formed when the kidneys were preserved for 8 h. The level of cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase-3 messenger RNA in the kidneys tissue gradually increased with the extension of cold preservation time after 2 h (P<0.05). TUNEL fluorescence staining showed that only a small number of cells underwent apoptosis after 8 h of cold preservation, which was not significantly different from that at 0 h (P>0.05). ELISA results showed that the contents of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatinine in the preservation solution remained relatively stable, but the content of kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1) gradually increased with the extension of preservation time, suggesting that the pig kidneys had mild injury. Conclusions By establishing methods for acquisition, perfusion, preservation and transportation of the kidneys from genetically modified donor pig, it is possible to effectively and reliably use genetically modified pig kidneys for xenotransplantation.
7.Prevalence and risk factors of depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions
Journal of Shenyang Medical College 2025;27(2):123-128,173
Objective:To investigate the prevalence of depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions and analyze its risk factors.Methods:Using convenience sampling,196 non-bedridden elderly individuals from integrated medical and elderly care institutions in Chizhou from Jan 2023 to Jan 2024 were selected as subjects.The Geriatric Depression Scale-15(GDS-15)was used to assess the depression levels of the elderly.A general information questionnaire,the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI),and the SF-12 Health Survey were used to collect factors related to depression in non-bedridden elderly.Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions.Results:Among the 196 non-bedridden elderly individuals,68 exhibited depression,with a detection rate of 34.69%.Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that lower education level(OR=2.644,95%CI:1.259-5.551),lack of physical exercise(OR=2.976,95%CI:1.456-6.081),cognitive training(OR=2.981,95%CI:1.446-6.145),and social activities(OR=3.822,95%CI:1.805-8.093),poorer health status(OR=3.450,95%CI:1.578-7.543),and lower quality of life(OR=3.979,95%CI:1.890-8.375)were independent risk factors for depression(P<0.05).Conclusions:The detection rate of depression among non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions is relatively high.Targeted interventions,such as strengthening mental health management,promoting cultural education,physical exercise,and social participation,and improving quality of life,should be implemented to prevent depression.
8.Establishment of Allogeneic Kidney Transplantation Technical System in Banna Miniature Pig Inbred Strain
Ying ZHANG ; Ziwei PENG ; Chang YANG ; Jing WANG ; Hongfang ZHAO ; Gen CHEN ; Hongye ZHAO ; Hongjiang WEI
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2025;45(5):623-633
Objective To establish a technical system for allogeneic kidney transplantation surgery in pigs using the Banna miniature pig inbred strain,and to evaluate it through routine blood tests,liver and kidney function tests,thus providing reference data for the preparation of allogeneic kidney transplantation models.Methods A total of 4 cases of allogeneic kidney transplantation surgeries were performed,including 1 case of single kidney transplantation in a healthy pig,2 cases of kidney transplantation after unilateral nephrectomy,and 1 case of kidney transplantation after bilateral nephrectomy.Before kidney transplantation,cross-matching and complement-dependent cytotoxicity(CDC)tests were used for matching between donor and recipient pigs.After kidney transplantation,peripheral blood samples were regularly collected from pigs for routine blood tests,liver function tests,and kidney function tests,and color Doppler ultrasound technology was used to detect blood supply to the transplanted kidneys.After reaching the experimental endpoint,both kidneys of pig DR1 and the left kidney of pig DR3 were collected and hematoxylin-eosin(HE)staining was performed to evaluate pathological changes in the transplanted kidneys.Results Recipient pigs DR1 and DR3 died at 17 days and 30 days after surgery respectively,while recipient pigs R and DR2 remained in good condition during the 30-day observation period.The results of liver and kidney function test showed that in pig DR1,alanine aminotransferase(ALT)levels increased on postoperative day 1(>1 000 U/L),peaked on postoperative day 7(1 300 U/L),and aspartate aminotransferase(AST)levels peaked on postoperative day 1(>3 000 U/L).On postoperative day 17,ALT and AST levels remained high(ALT,500 U/L;AST,700 U/L).In pigs R,DR2,and DR3,ALT and AST levels returned to normal around day 17.Serum creatinine(Crea)levels in pig R remained stable without postoperative increase.Crea levels in pigs DR1 and DR2 showed transient elevation on postoperative day 1,then gradually returned to normal(<100 μmol/L).Crea levels in pig DR3 remained below 500 μmol/L from postoperative days 2-10,but increased between days 11-28,reaching up to 1 500 μmol/L,indicating gradual loss of kidney function.Ultrasound results showed that the preoperative resistive index(RI)of recipient pig R was 0.91.On postoperative day 24,renal cortex and medulla showed abundant blood flow signals with RI value of 0.88,which was close to the pre-transplantation RI value.For pig DR2,the RI value on postoperative day 17 was 0.89,with poor renal cortex blood flow and relatively good renal medulla blood flow.In pig DR1 on postoperative day 17,no blood flow signals were detected in the transplanted kidney.HE staining results showed that the non-transplanted healthy right kidney of pig DR1 had normal structure,while the transplanted left kidney showed blurred glomerular structure and nuclear dissolution,indicating that the left kidney had lost function before removal.In the transplanted left kidney of pig DR3,large numbers of red blood cells and lymphocyte infiltration were observed in glomeruli and renal tubules,indicating possible coagulation dysfunction and rejection reactions after kidney transplantation.Conclusion Banna miniature pig inbred strain is used as experimental animals to perform four cases of allogeneic pig-to-pig kidney transplantation.The physiological parameters of the recipient pig and the function of the transplanted kidney are monitored after surgery using routine blood tests,liver and kidney function tests,color Doppler ultrasound,and pathological examinations.The allogeneic pig-to-pig kidney transplantation technical system established in the study can provide a foundation for clinicians to conduct kidney transplantation surgeries.
9.Prevalence and risk factors of depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions
Journal of Shenyang Medical College 2025;27(2):123-128,173
Objective:To investigate the prevalence of depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions and analyze its risk factors.Methods:Using convenience sampling,196 non-bedridden elderly individuals from integrated medical and elderly care institutions in Chizhou from Jan 2023 to Jan 2024 were selected as subjects.The Geriatric Depression Scale-15(GDS-15)was used to assess the depression levels of the elderly.A general information questionnaire,the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI),and the SF-12 Health Survey were used to collect factors related to depression in non-bedridden elderly.Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for depression in non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions.Results:Among the 196 non-bedridden elderly individuals,68 exhibited depression,with a detection rate of 34.69%.Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that lower education level(OR=2.644,95%CI:1.259-5.551),lack of physical exercise(OR=2.976,95%CI:1.456-6.081),cognitive training(OR=2.981,95%CI:1.446-6.145),and social activities(OR=3.822,95%CI:1.805-8.093),poorer health status(OR=3.450,95%CI:1.578-7.543),and lower quality of life(OR=3.979,95%CI:1.890-8.375)were independent risk factors for depression(P<0.05).Conclusions:The detection rate of depression among non-bedridden elderly in integrated medical and elderly care institutions is relatively high.Targeted interventions,such as strengthening mental health management,promoting cultural education,physical exercise,and social participation,and improving quality of life,should be implemented to prevent depression.
10.Machine learning-based screening of risk factors of early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia and establishment of a Nomogram predic-tion model
Jing XIE ; Li PU ; Zhengjing WANG ; Hongfang HU ; Liang FENG ; Su ZHAO
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology 2025;45(2):115-119
Objective To analyze the risk factors associated with early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exo-tropia and establish a Nomogram prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 243 cases(486 eyes)of concomitant exotropia treated in the Ophthalmology Department of our hospital from October 2015 to October 2021.The patients were divided into a training set(n=170)and a validation set(n=73)at a ratio of 7∶3.The Lasso re-gression,Boruta algorithm,and random forest algorithm were used to screen risk variables related to postoperative recur-rence of concomitant exotropia.The Spearman correlation analysis and variance inflation factor(VIF)were used to assess collinearity among variables,and a Nomogram prediction model was established using multivariate Cox regression.The re-ceiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,and clinical decision curve of the model at 6 months,18 months,and 24 months after surgery were used to assess the efficacy of the model.Results Three machine learning methods in-cluding Lasso regression,Boruta algorithm,and random forest algorithm identified six significant variables that might con-tribute to early recurrence after strabismus surgery from 22 risk variables in both training and validation sets.No collineari-ty was found among the six variables(r<0.6,VIF<5).Multivariate Cox regression revealed that strabismus type(inter-mittent exotropia),preoperative strabismus angle,best-corrected visual acuity(BCVA)in the right eye,BCVA in both eyes,and surgical procedures(unilateral lateral rectus recession)were risk factors for early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia.Meanwhile,a Nomogram prediction model was constructed based on these 6 factors.The receiver operating characteristic,calibration,and clinical decision curves indicated that the prediction model had good accuracy,consistency,and clinical applicability.Conclusion Nomogram prediction model can effectively predict the risk of early recurrence after surgery for concomitant exotropia,and provides a reference for ophthalmologists to intervene early in pa-tients.

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