BACKGROUND: Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex. METHODS: We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2000 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model. RESULTS: Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714-0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699-0.771). CONCLUSIONS We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.
Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment/statistics & numerical data* ; Humans ; Independent Living/statistics & numerical data* ; Japan ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nursing Homes/statistics & numerical data* ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to identify patient safety awareness and emergency response ability and affecting factors perceived by nursing homes and home visiting caregivers. METHODS: This study was a descriptive study that conveniently extracts nursing caregivers who care for elderly patients in S and G provinces, Korea. Data collection was done by structural questionnaires from April to May 2018. A total of 204 responses consisting of 103 nursing homes and 101 home visiting caregivers were used for data analysis in SPSS Win 22.0. RESULTS: Patient safety awareness and emergency response ability of nursing homes caregivers with each 4.24±0.50, 74.26±09.57 was each higher than that of the home visiting caregivers with 3.68±0.49, 68.02±12.12 (p < .001). The affecting factors of the patient safety awareness were working place, safety education, and daily average working hours with 12 or more (F = 27.30, p < .001) and that of emergency response ability were number of patients per personnel with 9 or more and emergency situation experience (F=14.00, p < .001). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that it is necessary to develop a safety education program that can share indirectly experience emergency situations that occur on the job site.
Aged ; Caregivers* ; Data Collection ; Education ; Emergencies* ; House Calls* ; Humans ; Korea ; Nursing Homes* ; Nursing* ; Patient Safety* ; Statistics as Topic ; Workplace

BACKGROUNDFalls are the most frequently reported adverse events in inpatient settings. We conducted a retrospective case-control study of inpatient falls within aged care wards in a tertiary hospital to investigate the associated characteristics of elderly patients suffering from falls and fall-related characteristics.

METHODSConsecutive retrospective cross-sectional design spanned July 2006 to December 2008.

PATIENT GROUPInformation on all aged care inpatients who suffered from 1 or more falls was extracted from Incident Information Management System (IIMS). Further details about the particular admission(s) were obtained from patients' medical records, e.g., patients' characteristics and circumstances surrounding the falls. Randomly selected aged care patients who did not suffer from a fall and who were discharged from the hospital in the same period served control group. Characteristics among patients with single fall and recurrent falls, as well as non-fallers were compared.

RESULTSOf the 438 falls evaluated, 71.9% occurred in patients' room and 18.9% in patients' bathroom/toilet. The common activities were moving/transferring and taking shower/toileting, respectively, 70.3%, 12.1% while occurring falls; and time of falls had a high peak during 9:00-11:00 a.m. Many were unassisted while falling. The common contributing factors for fall were intrinsic factors. Patients with recurrent falls were more likely to have lower Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score. Logistic regression analysis showed length of stay longer than five weeks, dementia and stroke were independent risk factors for recurrent falls; and living in hostel/nursing home preadmission, needing assistance with mobility, cognitive impairment, stroke, incontinence and arthritis/osteoporosis were independent risk factors for fall.

CONCLUSIONSIn an aged care ward, falls are independently associated with recurrent factors. Cognitive impairment/dementia was a strong risk factor for falls, and main causes leading to fall were intrinsic factors. For patients with cognitive impairment/dementia and behavioral disorder providing special and effective interventions is of paramount importance for reducing the incidence of fall in an aged care ward in hospital settings.

Accidental Falls ; statistics & numerical data ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Case-Control Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Nursing Homes ; statistics & numerical data ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors

INTRODUCTIONIn the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.

MATERIALS AND METHODSThe proportion of community-dwelling older adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.

RESULTSBy 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older). Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159 (53%) are estimated to have 3 or more.

CONCLUSIONThe number of elderly Singaporeans with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in 2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.

Activities of Daily Living ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Forecasting ; Health Services for the Aged ; statistics & numerical data ; Homes for the Aged ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Independent Living ; Long-Term Care ; statistics & numerical data ; trends ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Singapore

PURPOSE: An increasing elderly population reflects a great need for readily accessible, clinically useful methods to identify mortality-related factors in nursing home residents. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with the deaths of nursing home residents. METHODS: Data was collected from a Minimal Data Set of 195 elderly nursing home residents, followed by analysis of demographic factors, disease and nursing condition factors, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), cognitive function, behavioral patterns, and dysfunctional status. RESULTS: Major factors associated with death among nursing home residents were identified as dyspnea (odds ratio [OR] = 4.88), problematic behaviors (OR = 3.95), and ADL (OR = 3.61). These variables accounted for 31.1% of the variance in death. CONCLUSION: Dyspnea, problematic behaviors, and ADL data were identified as the key factors associated with death among nursing home residents. Future plans for the prediction of death among nursing home residents can be made by nursing staff, factoring in these identified variables, to ensure more comfortable conditions and more responsive care.
Activities of Daily Living ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Dyspnea/mortality ; Female ; Homes for the Aged/*statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Long-Term Care/*statistics & numerical data ; Male ; Mortality/*trends ; Nursing Homes/*statistics & numerical data ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Risk Factors ; Social Behavior Disorders/mortality

INTRODUCTIONThere is a high prevalence of polypharmacy and inappropriate medication use in Singapore nursing homes. This study primarily explored the benefits of pharmacist reviews in local nursing homes. The secondary aims were to review the potential cost savings gained from following the pharmacists' recommendations and to identify the possible risks associated with polypharmacy and inappropriate medication use.

METHODSA retrospective period prevalence study was performed. We analysed the pharmacotherapy problems highlighted by pharmacists in three nursing homes and the rate of acceptance of pharmacists' recommendations. Data was collected in two phases: (a) a one-month pre-setup period, during which 480 patients were reviewed (i.e. one-time review before weekly pharmacist visits); and (b) a six-month post-setup period, during which the 480 patients were reviewed again. Pharmacotherapy problems were classified according to a clinical pharmacist recommendation taxonomy and potential risks were identified. Monthly cost savings were calculated and compared with the monthly costs of pharmacist reviews.

RESULTSA total of 392 pharmacotherapy problems were identified, with pharmacist recommendations noted for each problem. Among the 392 recommendations, 236 (60.2%) were accepted. The pharmacotherapy problems were analysed for potential risks, including falls (16.0%) and constipation (13.1%). The acceptance rates were higher during the post-setup period compared to the pre-setup period (p < 0.0001). Total direct acquisition cost savings during the pre- and post-setup periods were SGD 388.30 and SGD 876.69, respectively.

CONCLUSIONThe provision of pharmaceutical care to nursing home residents resulted in improved medication safety and quality of care.

Aged ; Drug Costs ; Drug Utilization Review ; economics ; statistics & numerical data ; Female ; Health Care Costs ; Humans ; Inappropriate Prescribing ; economics ; statistics & numerical data ; Male ; Nursing Homes ; Pharmaceutical Services ; economics ; Pharmacists ; Polypharmacy ; Prevalence ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk ; Singapore

This study was conducted to detail tooth loss patterns in older adults with special needs. A total of 491 elderly subjects with special needs were retrospectively selected and followed during 10/1999-12/2006. Medical, dental, cognitive, and functional assessments were abstracted from dental records and used to predict risk of tooth loss. Tooth loss events were recorded for subjects during follow-up. Chi-squared tests were used to study the association between tooth loss and the selected risk factors. Logistic, poisson, and negative binomial regressions were developed to study tooth loss patterns. Overall, 27% of the subjects lost at least one tooth during follow-up. Fourteen subjects had tooth loss events per 100 person-years. Tooth loss pattern did not differ significantly among different special-needs subgroups (i.e. community-dwelling vs. long-term care, physically disabled vs. functionally independent). Special-needs subjects with three or more active dental conditions at arrival had more than twice the risk of losing teeth than those without any existing conditions. After adjusting other factors, the number of carious teeth or retained roots at arrival was a significant predictor of tooth loss for older adults with special needs (P = 0.001). These findings indicate that appropriately managing active caries and associated conditions is important to prevent tooth loss for older adults with special needs.
Aged ; Analysis of Variance ; Chi-Square Distribution ; Cohort Studies ; Dental Care for Aged ; statistics & numerical data ; Dental Caries ; epidemiology ; Disabled Persons ; statistics & numerical data ; Follow-Up Studies ; Geriatric Assessment ; Humans ; Incidence ; Independent Living ; Logistic Models ; Longitudinal Studies ; Minnesota ; epidemiology ; Nursing Homes ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Tooth Loss ; epidemiology