1.Review of current situation and future strategies on prevention and control of Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the Pacific Island States
Marika Nomura ; Hiroko Miura ; Midori Ishikawa
Journal of International Health 2016;31(4):309-321
In the Pacific island states, in addition to the traditional health issues common in developing countries, such as maternal and child health and communicable diseases, the increase in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), e.g., obesity and diabetes, has become a serious problem. NCDs account for 80% of all deaths in this region, and the increase in early deaths of people younger than 70 years old is of particular concern. It has also been pointed out that the cost of countermeasures against NCDs are constricting government finances, and enhancing a health system that supports such countermeasures is also an urgent challenge. However, with respect to international health cooperation in Japan, the present status of NCDs and the associated statistical data in the Pacific island states are not likely to be addressed. Therefore, in this report, we comprehensively explain the present status of and approaches to NCDs around the world based on the World Health Organization (WHO), including those in the Pacific island states. By taking advantage of health indicators, we confirm the disease structure present in the 10 Pacific island states that cooperate bilaterally with Japan and then discuss the approaches in these states. As a result, although countermeasures against NCDs have been actively implemented in the Pacific island states in accordance with the WHO strategies, no tendency for the prevalence of NCDs to improve has been seen. To promote countermeasures against NCDs in the Pacific island states in the future, it will be necessary to engage in analysis and discussion of the present situation, to develop human resources, taking into consideration the region-specific characteristics of the islands, and to accumulate sufficient numbers of successful local stories consistent with the local strategies.
2.Investigation of the Appropriate Threshold for Warning Dosage and Development of a Predictive Logistic Regression Model to Detect Dose- Error of Prednisolone Tablets
Hiroyasu SATO ; Yoshinobu KIMURA ; Masahiro OHBA ; Yoshiaki ARA ; Susumu WAKABAYASHI ; Hiroko NOMURA ; Hiroaki WATANABE
Japanese Journal of Drug Informatics 2023;25(3):157-163
Objective: The wrong dose of high-risk drugs such as oral steroids is a serious issue that needs to be addressed. This study aims to determine the appropriate upper tolerable dose threshold and to develop a multi-variable logistic regression model to detect dose-errors in oral prednisolone tablets.Methods: Data on Prednisolone prescriptions were obtained from a single center. Out of the data collected, positive cases consisted of cases where dose-related modifications were made. A univariate logistic regression model was developed with the current daily dose. In the model, the Youden Index was used to determine the upper tolerable dose threshold. The investigation was done to determine whether the performance of the multivariate model was improved by adding clinical department and previous prescription information as variables.Results: Univariate models (AUC: 0.645) with only current daily doses and estimated optimal thresholds of 6 mg/day or 11 mg/day, respectively were determined to be appropriate. Including variables improved the performance of the predictive model; the best performing model (AUC: 0.840) was derived when the following variables were entered: “current daily dose,” “current prescription days,” “clinical department,” “daily dose of the previous prescription,” and “prescription days of the previous prescription”.Conclusion: A single upper tolerance limit is insufficient to determine dose adequacy for prednisolone tablets owing to their broad clinical dose range. Itmay be possible to develop a high-performance dose audit support model by adding information.