A clinical prediction model can be applied to several challenging clinical scenarios: screening high-risk individuals for asymptomatic disease, predicting future events such as disease or death, and assisting medical decision-making and health education. Despite the impact of clinical prediction models on practice, prediction modeling is a complex process requiring careful statistical analyses and sound clinical judgement. Although there is no definite consensus on the best methodology for model development and validation, a few recommendations and checklists have been proposed. In this review, we summarize five steps for developing and validating a clinical prediction model: preparation for establishing clinical prediction models; dataset selection; handling variables; model generation; and model evaluation and validation. We also review several studies that detail methods for developing clinical prediction models with comparable examples from real practice. After model development and vigorous validation in relevant settings, possibly with evaluation of utility/usability and fine-tuning, good models can be ready for the use in practice. We anticipate that this framework will revitalize the use of predictive or prognostic research in endocrinology, leading to active applications in real clinical practice.
Asymptomatic Diseases ; Checklist ; Consensus ; Dataset ; Endocrinology ; Health Education ; Mass Screening

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To compare the performance of latest commercially available endoscopic ultrasound biopsy needles. METHODS: Six latest commercially available needles were tested on a freshly harvested bovine liver; the tested needles included three 19 G, one 20 G, and two 22 G needles. Five biopsies were performed per needle with 10 mL of wet suction. The primary outcome was the number of complete portal tracts (CPTs) per needle aspirate. The secondary outcomes were the mean specimen length and mean fragment length. Analysis of variance and Tukey’s test were applied. RESULTS: All 19 G needles and the 20 G needle yielded similar mean CPTs and were superior to the SharkCore 22 G needle (p<0.001 adjusted for multiplicity). There was no statistically significant difference in total specimen length among the three 19 G needles and the 20 G needle tested. The two 22 G needles performed similarly with respect to the number of CPTs, mean fragment length, and mean specimen length (adjusted p=0.07, p=0.59, and p=0.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The specimen adequacy was similar among the 3 latest commercially available 19 G needles. The endoscopist may choose a larger-bore needle based on availability without concerns of specimen adequacy. Further studies are needed to assess the ease of needle use in various anatomical locations and to confirm the optimal needle design.
Biopsy ; Biopsy, Fine-Needle ; Endosonography ; Liver ; Needles ; Suction ; Ultrasonography

Background: Risk assessment tools have been actively studied, and they summarize key predictors with relative weights/importance for a disease. Currently, standardized screening scores for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)—two key global health problems—are available in United States and Korea. We aimed to compare and evaluate screening scores for DM (or combined with prediabetes) and CKD, and assess the risk in contemporary United States and Korean populations. Methods: Four (2×2) models were evaluated in the United States-National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2015–2018) and Korea-NHANES (2016–2018)—8,928 and 16,209 adults. Weighted statistics were used to describe population characteristics. We used logistic regression for predictors in the models to assess associations with study outcomes (undiagnosed DM and CKD) and diagnostic measures for temporal and cross-validation. Results: Korean adult population (mean age 47.5 years) appeared to be healthier than United States counterpart, in terms of DM and CKD risks and associated factors, with exceptions of undiagnosed DM, prediabetes and prehypertension. Models performed well in own country and external populations regarding predictor-outcome association and discrimination. Risk tests (high vs. low) showed area under the curve >0.75, sensitivity >84%, specificity >45%, positive predictive value >8%, and negative predictive value >99%. Discrimination was better for DM, compared to the combined outcome of DM and prediabetes, and excellent for CKD due to age. Conclusion Four easy-to-use screening scores for DM and CKD are well-validated in contemporary United States and Korean populations. Prevention of DM and CKD may serve as first-step in public health, with these self-assessment tools as basic tools to help health education and disparity.

Purpose: Psychiatric hospital length of stay (LOS) is not affected solely by socio-clinical factors but also by legal procedures. This study examined the associations between legal procedures and LOS. Methods: Data from 521 patients with psychiatric illnesses hospitalized over 2013-2015 were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the predictors of longer (> 14 days) or prolonged (> 30) LOS with socio-clinical factors and legal procedures including court-ordered interventions (assisted outpatient treatment, medication over objection, and retention). Results: Longer LOS occurred in 246 patients and 99 had prolonged LOS. Legal procedures affected 57 patients, with 11 assisted outpatient treatments, 39 cases of medication over objection, and 16 retentions. Longer LOS was significantly associated with six factors including older age, unmarried status, non-Hispanic race, risk of violence, schizophrenia, and legal procedures. Legal procedures had the strongest association. Longer/prolonged LOS yielded qualitatively similar associations. Conclusion Among 521 psychiatric inpatients, approximately 11% were mandated to receive interventions/procedures by the courts. Court-ordered legal procedures were strongly associated with longer LOS. Mental health providers may consider legal procedures for patients at high treatment/ medication noncompliance risk as early as patient admission to inpatient units to prevent, intervene or prepare for a longer or prolonged LOS.

Pruritus (itching) is classically defined as an unpleasant cutaneous sensation that leads to scratching behavior. Although the scientific criteria of classification for pruritic diseases are not clear, it can be divided as acute or chronic by duration of symptoms. In this study, we investigated whether skin injury caused by chemical (contact hypersensitivity, CHS) or physical (skin-scratching stimulation, SSS) stimuli causes initial pruritus and analyzed gene expression profiles systemically to determine how changes in skin gene expression in the affected area are related to itching. In both CHS and SSS, we ranked the Gene Ontology Biological Process terms that are generally associated with changes. The factors associated with upregulation were keratinization, inflammatory response and neutrophil chemotaxis. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway shows the difference of immune system, cell growth and death, signaling molecules and interactions, and signal transduction pathways. Il1a , Il1b and Il22 were upregulated in the CHS, and Tnf, Tnfrsf1b, Il1b, Il1r1 and Il6 were upregulated in the SSS. Trpc1 channel genes were observed in representative itching-related candidate genes. By comparing and analyzing RNA-sequencing data obtained from the skin tissue of each animal model in these characteristic stages, it is possible to find useful diagnostic markers for the treatment of itching, to diagnose itching causes and to apply customized treatment.
Animals ; Biological Processes ; Chemotaxis ; Classification ; Cytokines ; Dermatitis, Contact* ; Gene Expression ; Gene Ontology ; Genome ; Hypersensitivity ; Immune System ; Interleukin-6 ; Mice* ; Models, Animal ; Neutrophils ; Pruritus* ; RNA* ; Sensation ; Sequence Analysis, RNA* ; Signal Transduction ; Skin* ; Transcriptome ; Transient Receptor Potential Channels ; Up-Regulation ; Wound Healing