Objective Many environmental epidemiological studies have shown the associations between short-term exposure of air pollution and daily deaths.However,the generally available population data only contain a small number of measured confounding factors,which is faced with the problem that a large number of unobserved confounding factors are not included in the model,resulting in biased estimates.The instrumental variable method can solve the problem of estimating the effects caused by unobserved confounders.In this paper,We used the instrumental variable method to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on daily mortality.Methods We collected daily PM2.5 concentrations,meteorological data,and nonaccidental daily deaths in a Chinese city from 2016 to 2019.We used boundary layer height and wind speed as instrumental variables to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on nonaccidental daily mortality.Negative exposure control was used to test the hypothesis of instrumental variables.Meanwhile time series bootstrap method was used to estimate confidence interval.We compared the results of the generalized additive model and instrumental variable method.Results The instrumental variable method showed that PM2.5 was significantly related to daily deaths.For every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 concentrations,the nonaccidental daily deaths increased by 0.94%(95%CI:0.39%～1.55%).Negative exposure control results showed no correlation between negative exposure and nonaccidental deaths(P=0.19),indicated that the aforementioned instrumental variable model was not affected by unmeasured and uncontrolled confounders.The traditional generalized additive model estimated that for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations,the nonaccidental deaths would increase by 0.24%(95%CI:0.01%～0.47%).Conclusion The instrumental variable method estimated that PM2.5 concentrations were significantly correlated with the nonaccidental daily deaths.Boundary layer height and wind speed can be used as instrumental variables to estimate the effects of PM2.5 concentrations on nonaccidental deaths.

Purpose To evaluate the quality assessed by iconographic diagnostic test system using ROBIS. Materials and Methods"Diagnostic tests, system evaluation, Meta analysis, diagnoses*test, diagnoses*trial, systematic review, meta-analysis" were used as search term to retrieve relevant literatures recorded in CBM, CNKI, Wanfang Data, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library from January. 1, 2014 to December. 31, 2016. After two independent researchers screened the literature and extracted the information, the quality of included literatures was evaluated using ROBIS. Results Totally 219 articles were included in the study, including 93 Chinese literatures and 126 English literatures. The results of subgroup analysis showed that the quality difference between Chinese and English documents was statistically significant (P=0.018); the quality difference between the Chinese literatures and those of other regions was statistically significant (P<0.001); there was no statistical significance in quality difference regarding the year of publication (P=0.34). The ROBIS evaluation results showed that there were only 15 literatures (6.85%) with low-risk, including 2 Chinese literatures and 13 English literatures. Conclusion The quality evaluated by Chinese and English diagnostic test system, which is publicly published in iconographic diagnostic test from 2014 to 2016, is generally low, and the quality of literatures published by domestic scholars and in Chinese is still behind international levels. The maker of system evaluation in this field should prepare their research plans in advance and fully report them in future research, adequately obtain evidence, minimize bias in respects of document screening, information extraction, and evaluation of original research bias, and take into account of results stability, based on which the quality of system evaluation in this field should be further improved.

Objective:To investigate the value of serum CD64, heparin binding protein (HBP) and procalcitonin (PCT) in early diagnosis of septic shock and its prognostic value.Methods:The clinical data of 40 children with sepsis (sepsis group) and 40 children with septic shock (septic shock group) in Children′s Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to November 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. PCT was detected by chemiluminescence, HBP was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and CD 64 was detected by flow cytometry. All children were followed up within 1 month after discharge, and the occurrence of poor prognosis (including multiple organ failure and death) was recorded. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of serum CD 64, HBP and PCT for septic shock. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for poor prognosis in children with septic shock. Results:The serum CD 64, HBP and PCT in septic shock group were significantly higher than those in sepsis group: 0.667 ± 0.120 vs. 0.501 ± 0.115, (116.46 ± 11.41) μg/L vs. (87.34 ± 23.49) μg/L and (11.41 ± 1.25) μg/L vs. (9.29 ± 1.31) μg/L respectively, and there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). ROC curve analysis result showed that the area under curve (AUC) of serum CD 64, HBP and PCT for predicting septic shock were 0.837, 0.894 and 0.880 respectively, and the optimal cut-off values were 0.586, 106.2 μg/L and 11.28 μg/L respectively; the AUC of serum CD 64, HBP and PCT combined detection for predicting septic shock was 0.914, with a sensitivity of 75.7%, specificity of 96.0%, and accuracy of 71.7%. According to the optimal cut-off values of serum CD 64, HBP and PCT, 40 children with septic shock were divided into high expression group and low expression group. The prognosis was good in 25 cases and bad in 15 cases. The incidence of poor prognosis in CD 64 high expression group, HBP high expression group and PCT high expression group was significantly higher than that in corresponding CD 64 low expression group, HBP low expression group and PCT low expression group: 56.52% (13/23) vs. 2/17, 10/17 vs. 21.74% (5/23) and 11/18 vs. 18.18% (4/22), and there was statistical difference ( P<0.01 or <0.05). Multivariate Logistics regression analysis result showed that serum CD64, HBP and PCT were independent risk factors for poor prognosis in children with septic shock ( OR = 0.818, 1.204 and 3.633; 95% CI 0.674 to 0.994, 1.022 to 1.419 and 1.090 to 12.108; P = 0.043, 0.026 and 0.036). Conclusions:The serum levels of CD 64, HBP and PCT in children with septic shock are significantly increased, which play an important role in the occurrence and development of septic shock, and which have predictive value for septic shock. The combined detection of the 3 indexes could be used to evaluate the prognosis, with a higher predictive value.