1.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
2.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
3.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
4.Predicting Mortality and Cirrhosis-Related Complications with MELD3.0: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis
Jihye LIM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; Ji Won HAN ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Hyun YANG ; Heechul NAM ; Hae Lim LEE ; Do Seon SONG ; Sung Won LEE ; Hee Yeon KIM ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Chang Wook KIM ; U Im CHANG ; Soon Woo NAM ; Seok-Hwan KIM ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Myeong Jun SONG
Gut and Liver 2025;19(3):427-437
Background/Aims:
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 for predicting mortality and liver-related complications compared with the Child-Pugh classification, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, the MELD, and the MELD sodium (MELDNa) score.
Methods:
We evaluated a multicenter retrospective cohort of incorporated patients with cirrhosis between 2013 and 2019. We conducted comparisons of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the MELD3.0 and other models for predicting 3-month mortality. Additionally, we assessed the risk of cirrhosis-related complications according to the MELD3.0 score.
Results:
A total of 3,314 patients were included. The mean age was 55.9±11.3 years, and 70.2% of the patients were male. Within the initial 3 months, 220 patients (6.6%) died, and the MELD3.0had the best predictive performance among the tested models, with an AUROC of 0.851, outperforming the Child-Pugh classification, ALBI grade, MELD, and MELDNa. A high MELD3.0score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Compared with that of the group with a MELD3.0 score <10 points, the adjusted hazard ratio of the group with a score of 10–20 pointswas 2.176, and that for the group with a score of ≥20 points was 4.892. Each 1-point increase inthe MELD3.0 score increased the risk of cirrhosis-related complications by 1.033-fold. The risk of hepatorenal syndrome showed the highest increase, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.149, followed by hepatic encephalopathy and ascites.
Conclusions
The MELD3.0 demonstrated robust prognostic performance in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, the MELD3.0 score was linked to cirrhosis-related complications, particularly those involving kidney function, such as hepatorenal syndrome and ascites.
5.Independent and Combined Effects of Particulate Matter and Sleep Deprivation on Human Skin Barrier
Il Joo KWON ; Eun Jung LEE ; Jong Ho PARK ; Ji Young KIM ; Seohyun PARK ; Yu Jeong BAE ; Shinwon HWANG ; Hye-won NA ; Nari CHA ; Geunhyuk JANG ; Hyoung-June KIM ; Hae Kwang LEE ; Sang Ho OH
Annals of Dermatology 2025;37(3):131-139
Background:
The exposome encompasses all factors people encounter through life, with the skin constantly exposed. While particulate matter (PM) and sleep deprivation are known to contribute to barrier dysfunction, their combined effects remain unclear.
Objective:
To evaluate the independent and combined effects of PM exposure and short-term sleep deprivation on skin barrier function.
Methods:
Forty healthy Korean women (aged 24–58 years) were enrolled in this study. Forearms were divided into 4 sites: control, PM exposure, sleep deprivation, and PM plus sleep deprivation. Parameters such as trans-epidermal water loss (TEWL), hydration, elasticity, roughness, and redness were measured at baseline and post-exposure. RNA sequencing and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction were conducted on tape-stripped skin samples.
Results:
PM exposure significantly increased TEWL (+25.59%, p<0.01), roughness (+21.9%, p<0.01), and redness (+13.7%, p<0.0001) while reducing elasticity (−3.98%, p<0.01). Sleep deprivation modestly reduced elasticity (−1.39%, p<0.05) without affecting other parameters.Combined PM and sleep deprivation did not further exacerbate barrier dysfunction compared to PM alone. RNA sequencing revealed reduced FLG and LORICRIN expression and upregulated endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress markers (HSP90B1, CANX) in both PM and sleep deprivation conditions.
Conclusion
PM exposure impaired skin barrier function, while short-term sleep deprivation alone did not significantly affect the barrier, either independently or in combination with PM.However, it was observed that the sleep deprivation-only, while not directly causing barrier damage, induced changes in ER stress-related gene expression in tape-stripped skin samples, like the PM exposure-only. This suggests that such signaling pathways could potentially exacerbate skin barrier deterioration.
6.Practice guidelines for managing extrahepatic biliary tract cancers
Hyung Sun KIM ; Mee Joo KANG ; Jingu KANG ; Kyubo KIM ; Bohyun KIM ; Seong-Hun KIM ; Soo Jin KIM ; Yong-Il KIM ; Joo Young KIM ; Jin Sil KIM ; Haeryoung KIM ; Hyo Jung KIM ; Ji Hae NAHM ; Won Suk PARK ; Eunkyu PARK ; Joo Kyung PARK ; Jin Myung PARK ; Byeong Jun SONG ; Yong Chan SHIN ; Keun Soo AHN ; Sang Myung WOO ; Jeong Il YU ; Changhoon YOO ; Kyoungbun LEE ; Dong Ho LEE ; Myung Ah LEE ; Seung Eun LEE ; Ik Jae LEE ; Huisong LEE ; Jung Ho IM ; Kee-Taek JANG ; Hye Young JANG ; Sun-Young JUN ; Hong Jae CHON ; Min Kyu JUNG ; Yong Eun CHUNG ; Jae Uk CHONG ; Eunae CHO ; Eui Kyu CHIE ; Sae Byeol CHOI ; Seo-Yeon CHOI ; Seong Ji CHOI ; Joon Young CHOI ; Hye-Jeong CHOI ; Seung-Mo HONG ; Ji Hyung HONG ; Tae Ho HONG ; Shin Hye HWANG ; In Gyu HWANG ; Joon Seong PARK
Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery 2024;28(2):161-202
Background:
s/Aims: Reported incidence of extrahepatic bile duct cancer is higher in Asians than in Western populations. Korea, in particular, is one of the countries with the highest incidence rates of extrahepatic bile duct cancer in the world. Although research and innovative therapeutic modalities for extrahepatic bile duct cancer are emerging, clinical guidelines are currently unavailable in Korea. The Korean Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery in collaboration with related societies (Korean Pancreatic and Biliary Surgery Society, Korean Society of Abdominal Radiology, Korean Society of Medical Oncology, Korean Society of Radiation Oncology, Korean Society of Pathologists, and Korean Society of Nuclear Medicine) decided to establish clinical guideline for extrahepatic bile duct cancer in June 2021.
Methods:
Contents of the guidelines were developed through subgroup meetings for each key question and a preliminary draft was finalized through a Clinical Guidelines Committee workshop.
Results:
In November 2021, the finalized draft was presented for public scrutiny during a formal hearing.
Conclusions
The extrahepatic guideline committee believed that this guideline could be helpful in the treatment of patients.
7.Factors Associated with Reaching Mid-Parental Height in Patients Diagnosed with Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Childhood and Adolescent Period
So Yoon CHOI ; Sujin CHOI ; Byung-Ho CHOE ; Jae Hong PARK ; Kwang-Hae CHOI ; Hae Jeong LEE ; Ji Sook PARK ; Ji-Hyun SEO ; Jae Young KIM ; Hyo-Jeong JANG ; Suk Jin HONG ; Eun Young KIM ; Yeoun Joo LEE ; Ben KANG
Gut and Liver 2024;18(1):106-115
Background/Aims:
The recent update on the Selecting Therapeutic Targets in Inflammatory Bowel Disease initiative has added normal growth in children as an intermediate target in Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. We aimed to investigate factors associated with reaching midparental height (MPH) in patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease in childhood and the adolescent period.
Methods:
This multicenter retrospective observational study included pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease that had reached adult height. Factors associated with reaching MPH were investigated by logistic regression analyses.
Results:
A total of 166 patients were included in this study (128 Crohn’s disease and 38 ulcerative colitis). Among them, 54.2% (90/166) had reached their MPH. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that height Z-score at diagnosis and MPH Z-score were independently associated with reaching MPH (odds ratio [OR], 8.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.44 to 17.90;p<0.001 and OR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.24; p<0.001, respectively). According to the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cutoff level of "height Z-score at diagnosis minus MPH Z-score" that was associated with reaching MPH was –0.01 with an area under the curve of 0.889 (95% CI [0.835 to 0.944], sensitivity 88.9%, specificity 84.2%, positive predictive value 87.0%, negative predictive value 86.5%, p<0.001).
Conclusions
Height Z-score at diagnosis and MPH Z-score were the only factors associated with reaching MPH. Efforts should be made to restore growth in pediatric patients who present with a negative “height Z-score at diagnosis minus MPH Z-score.”
8.Effect of Biliary Drainage on the Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Bile Duct Invasion
Keungmo YANG ; Hyun YANG ; Chang Wook KIM ; Hee Chul NAM ; Ji Hoon KIM ; Ahlim LEE ; U Im CHANG ; Jin Mo YANG ; Hae Lim LEE ; Jung Hyun KWON ; Soon Woo NAM ; Soon Kyu LEE ; Pil Soo SUNG ; Ji Won HAN ; Jeong Won JANG ; Si Hyun BAE ; Jong Young CHOI ; Seung Kew YOON ; Hee Yeon KIM
Gut and Liver 2024;18(5):877-887
Background/Aims:
Bile duct invasion (BDI) is rarely observed in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), leading to hyperbilirubinemia. However, the efficacy of pretreatment biliary drainage for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice is currently unclear. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of biliary drainage on the prognosis of these patients.
Methods:
We retrospectively enrolled a total of 200 HCC patients with BDI from multicenter cohorts. Patients without obstructive jaundice (n=99) and those who did not undergo HCC treatment (n=37) were excluded from further analysis. Finally, 64 patients with obstructive jaundice (43 subjected to drainage and 21 not subjected to drainage) were included. Propensity score matching was then conducted.
Results:
The biliary drainage group showed longer overall survival (median 10.13 months vs 4.43 months, p=0.004) and progression-free survival durations (median 7.00 months vs 1.97 months, p<0.001) than the non-drainage group. Multivariate analysis showed that biliary drainage was a significantly favorable prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, 0.42; p=0.006) and progression-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.30; p<0.001). Furthermore, in the evaluation of first response after HCC treatment, biliary drainage was beneficial (p=0.005). Remarkably, the durations of overall survival (p=0.032) and progression-free survival (p=0.004) were similar after propensity score matching.
Conclusions
Biliary drainage is an independent favorable prognostic factor for HCC patients with BDI and obstructive jaundice. Therefore, biliary drainage should be contemplated in the treatment of advanced HCC with BDI to improve survival outcomes.
9.Disease Awareness, Medical Use Behavior, Diagnosis and Treatment Status, Quality of Life and Comorbidities in Primary Cicatricial Alopecia Patients: A Multicenter Survey
Seo Won SONG ; Dong Geon LEE ; Hoon KANG ; Bark-Lynn LEW ; Jee Woong CHOI ; Ohsang KWON ; Yang Won LEE ; Beom Joon KIM ; Young LEE ; Jin PARK ; Moon-Bum KIM ; Do Young KIM ; Sang Seok KIM ; Byung Cheol PARK ; Sang Hoon LEE ; Gwang Seong CHOI ; Hyun-Tae SHIN ; Chang Hun HUH ; Yong Hyun JANG ; Soo Hong SEO ; Jiehyun JEON ; Hyun Sun PARK ; Chong Hyun WON ; Min Sung KIM ; Byung In RO ; Ji Hyun LEE ; Ji Hae LEE ; Dong Soo YU ; Yu Ri WOO ; Hyojin KIM ; Jung Eun KIM
Korean Journal of Dermatology 2024;62(4):206-217
Background:
Primary cicatricial alopecia (PCA) is a rare disease that causes irreversible destruction of hair follicles and affects the quality of life (QOL).
Objective:
We aimed to investigate the disease awareness, medical use behavior, QOL, and real-world diagnosis and treatment status of patients with PCA.
Methods:
A self-administered questionnaire was administered to patients with PCA and their dermatologists. Patients aged between 19 and 75 years who visited one of 27 dermatology departments between September 2021 and September 2022 were included.
Results:
In total, 274 patients were included. The male-to-female ratio was 1:1.47, with a mean age of 45.7 years. Patients with neutrophilic and mixed PCA were predominantly male and younger than those with lymphocytic PCA. Among patients with lymphocytic PCA, lichen planopilaris was the most common type, and among those with neutrophilic PCA, folliculitis decalvans was the most common type. Among the total patients, 28.8% were previously diagnosed with PCA, 47.0% were diagnosed with PCA at least 6 months after their first hospital visit, 20.0% received early treatment within 3 months of disease onset, and 54.4% received steady treatment. More than half of the patients had a moderate to severe impairment in QOL. Topical/intralesional steroid injections were the most common treatment. Systemic immunosuppressants were frequently prescribed to patients with lymphocytic PCA, and antibiotics were mostly prescribed to patients with neutrophilic PCA.
Conclusion
This study provides information on the disease awareness, medical use behavior, QOL, diagnosis, and treatment status of Korean patients with PCA. This can help dermatologists educate patients with PCA to understand the necessity for early diagnosis and steady treatment.
10.Estimating the number of severe COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths averted by a nationwide vaccination campaign in Republic of Korea
Ji Hae HWANG ; Ju Hee LEE ; Eun Jung JANG ; Ryu Kyung KIM ; Kil Hun LEE ; Seon Kyeong PARK ; Sang Eun LEE ; Chungman CHAE ; Sangwon LEE ; Young Joon PARK
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 2023;14(3):164-172
Objectives:
The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency promotes vaccination by regularly providing information on its benefits for reducing the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to analyze the number of averted severe COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths by age group and quantify the impact of Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign.
Methods:
We analyzed an integrated database from the beginning of the vaccination campaign on February 26, 2021 to October 15, 2022. We estimated the cumulative number of severe cases and COVID-19-related deaths over time by comparing observed and estimated cases among unvaccinated and vaccinated groups using statistical modeling. We compared daily age-adjusted rates of severe cases and deaths in the unvaccinated group to those in the vaccinated group and calculated the susceptible population and proportion of vaccinated people by age.
Results:
There were 23,793 severe cases and 25,441 deaths related to COVID-19. We estimated that 119,579 (95% confidence interval [CI], 118,901–120,257) severe COVID-19 cases and 137,636 (95% CI, 136,909–138,363) COVID-19-related deaths would have occurred if vaccination had not been performed. Therefore, 95,786 (95% CI, 94,659–96,913) severe cases and 112,195 (95% CI, 110,870–113,520) deaths were prevented as a result of the vaccination campaign.
Conclusion
We found that, if the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign had not been implemented, the number of severe cases and deaths would have been at least 4 times higher. These findings suggest that Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign reduced the number of severe cases and COVID-19 deaths.

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