Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to make realtime predictions on the Aedes egg populations in three selected dengue hotspots of Penang, Malaysia. The weekly ovitrap collection was carried out to determine the abundance of Aedes eggs in field population in some selected areas. The ARIMA models were able to estimate actual egg abundance using two criteria. The first criteria is determine the reliability of statistics and the second is to measure the accuracy of forecasting ability of the model equation. The parsimonious model with a lowest order of AR or MA and RMSE value of the forecast for each data set was considered the best. ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (0,1,1) models were judged to be the best fit for the suburban, urban squatter and urban area data sets respectively. The models were able to forecast the number of eggs within a range of one to eleven weeks. The developed models were able to estimate the egg abundance adequately to permit their use in Aedes control programme in Penang Island. Thus, it can be a useful tool for health officials to improve the management of mosquito control and alert the public to reduce the possibility of dengue outbreaks.

A semi laboratory experiment using 3 cohorts of Aedes albopictus adults was performed to obtain age-specific mortality and fecundity information and to derive statistical estimates of some population growth parameters. Life expectancy was calculated for both males and females. The following population parameters were estimated: intrinsic rate of increase (rm= 0.21), net reproductive (replacement) rate (Ro= 68.70), age at mean cohort reproduction (To=10.55 days), birth rate (B=0.23), death rate (D=0.02) and generation time (G=20.14 days). The high rm/B (0.91) and B/D (11.50) ratios indicated the high colonizing ability of Ae. albopictus in nature.
Upper case Bee ; Aedes albopictus ; Upper case dee ; Population ; Culicidae

OBJECTIVETo generate life table characteristics for the dengue vector Aedes albopictus (A. albopictus) under uncontrolled conditions, incorporating both the aquatic and the adult stages.

METHODSTen females derived from wild pupae were allowed to fully blood-feed on restrained mice. 774 eggs were hatched in seasoned water. F1 larvae were followed for development until their F2 counterparts emerged as adults. Some population parameters were monitored (F1) or estimated (F2).

RESULTSA. albopictus exhibited increased fecundity and egg hatch success. Immature development was quick. Immature survival was high, with lowest rate in the pupal stage. Adult emergence was about 81% and sex ratio was close to 1:1. Generational mortality (K) was about 28%. A high proportion of females completed a reproductive cycle and the obtained parity rate was predicted to lead to higher fecundity in the next generation.

CONCLUSIONSIt can be concluded that natural A. albopictus populations in Penang seem largely determined by quick development in combination with low immature loss and increased oviposition.

Aedes ; growth & development ; physiology ; Animals ; Female ; Insect Vectors ; Malaysia ; Male ; Mice ; Vital Statistics