Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Objective This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Urumqi City, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi City. Methods We collected and analyzed the reported HFMD cases in Urumqi City from the National Information System for Infectious Diseases Reporting during the period of 2014-2022. Results A total of 17 138 cases of HFMD were reported in Urumqi City from 2014 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.66/100 000. The overall trend showed a decrease, and the peak months were from May to July. The top three districts with the highest incidence rates were High-tech Zone, Shayibake District, and Tianshan District. The male-to-female ratio was 1.48:1，and there were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among gender (χ²=2.28,P>0.05). The majority of cases (90.23%) were children aged 0-6 years, primarily scattered children, and other enterovirus strains became dominant after 2017. Conclusion HFMD has shown a decreasing trend in Urumqi City, Xinjiang in recent years. The disease primarily affects pre-school children, and other enterovirus strains have become the dominant strains in the area. It is recommended to develop scientifically effective prevention and control measures based on the local situation to control the spread of HFMD.