BACKGROUND: Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex. METHODS: We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2000 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model. RESULTS: Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714-0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699-0.771). CONCLUSIONS We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.
Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment/statistics & numerical data* ; Humans ; Independent Living/statistics & numerical data* ; Japan ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nursing Homes/statistics & numerical data* ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors

Objective: To investigate frailty progress status and related factors in the elderly living in communities. Methods: A cohort of elderly people aged 65 and over in Pingyi community of Dujiangyan, Sichuan province, was established. Face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted by trained interviewers. The frailty status, cognitive function, nutrition status and other functions of the subjects surveyed were evaluated at baseline survey and during follow-up. The socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of the subjects surveyed were assessed at baseline survey. Binary logistic regressions were used to identify factors associated with frailty progress. Results: A total of 653 elderly people were surveyed in January 2014, and 507 elderly people were followed up while 146 elderly people terminated further follow-up in January 2017. The prevalence rates of frailty and pre-frailty at baseline survey were 11.2% (n=57) and 26.2% (n=133), respectively. After 3 years, 205 subjects (40.4%) surveyed experienced frailty progress, 276 (54.5%) remained to be in frailty state at baseline survey, and 26 (5.1%) had improvement. Disability (OR=8.27, 95%CI: 1.62-42.26), visual problem (OR=2.02, 95%CI: 1.27-3.22), cognitive impairment (OR=1.94, 95%CI: 1.08-3.48), poor self-rated health (OR=1.89, 95%CI: 1.07-3.31), chronic pain (OR=1.57, 95%CI: 1.03-2.40) and older age (OR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.08-1.17) were independently associated with the progress of frailty. In contract, overweight was a protective factor (OR=0.54, 95%CI: 0.34-0.85). Conclusions: Frailty is a dynamic syndrome affected by several socio-demographic factors and geriatric factors. The results of the study can be used in the prevention of frailty progress in the elderly in communities.
Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; China/epidemiology* ; Frail Elderly/statistics & numerical data* ; Frailty ; Geriatric Assessment/statistics & numerical data* ; Humans ; Prospective Studies ; Quality of Life/psychology* ; Surveys and Questionnaires

Objective: To explore the relationship between frailty syndrome and falls in the elderly diabetics, in the communities. Methods: A three-year cohort study involving 653 community-dwelling adults who were over 65 years of age and participated in the Survey of Disease, Psychological and Social Needs in Dujiangyan Pingyi Community. Diabetic patients would include those who self-reported as having histories of diabetes or on anti-hyperglycemic therapies. Frailty, functional and other geriatric status were assessed respectively. Falls was defined as having had multiple falls or at least one event but with injury. Results: The highest prevalence of falls was found in the group of frail diabetic group (62.5%). Data showed that baseline frailty was associated with falls in both diabetic and non-diabetic groups but the odds ratio in the diabetic group was higher than that of the non-diabetic group (OR=3.87, 95%CI: 1.45-10.28 vs. OR=6.68, 95%CI: 1.14-38.99). Conclusion: Frailty could be used as a strong clinical predictor to prevent falls, for the elderly diabetic Chinese living in the communities.
Accidental Falls/statistics & numerical data* ; Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Frail Elderly/statistics & numerical data* ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Geriatric Assessment/methods* ; Humans ; Independent Living ; Odds Ratio ; Prevalence ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Assessment/methods* ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Syndrome

Essential tremor (ET) is one of the most common movement disorders. The prevalence of ET varies substantially among studies. In Korea, there is no well-designed epidemiological study of the prevalence of ET. Thus, we investigated the prevalence of ET in a community in Korea. Standardized interviews and in-person neurological examinations were performed in a random sample of the elderly aged 65 yr or older. Next, movement specialists attempted to diagnose ET clinically. People who showed equivocal parkinsonian features underwent dopamine transporter imaging using [123I]-FP-CIT SPECT, to differentiate ET from parkinsonism. A total of 714 subjects participated in this population-based study. Twenty six of these subjects were diagnosed as having ET. The crude prevalence of ET was 3.64 per 100 persons. Age, gender, or education period were not different between the ET patients and the non-ET subjects. The prevalence of ET was slightly lower than those reported in previous studies. Further studies including more subjects are warranted.
Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Essential Tremor/*diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment/*statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Male ; Prevalence ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Sex Distribution

BACKGROUND: The living arrangement has been suggested as an important factor affecting health. Recent studies have also suggested that there was a risk among elderly persons who were not alone. This study examined whether the detailed living arrangement was associated with a future decline in functional capacity in the elderly, by gender, in a Japanese suburban city. METHODS: A 3-year longitudinal questionnaire survey (baseline: 2011; follow-up: 2014) for aged 65 years or older was conducted in Kurihara city, Japan. Of the respondents in the baseline survey, we analyzed those who scored 13 points (a perfect score which indicates the highest functional capacity; n = 2627) on the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence at the baseline. The exposure was living arrangement at baseline, divided into five categories: "with spouse only," "living alone," "with child and his/her spouse," "with child without his/her spouse," and "with other family/person." The outcome was the decline in functional capacity at the follow-up survey (score decreased to 10 points or less from 13 points). RESULTS: Of the 2627 analyzed population, 1199 (45.6%) were men. The incidence of the decline was 5.8% in men and 5.9% in women. Multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, educational attainment, and health behavior and condition revealed that in women, the odds ratio of the decline was higher in living with child and his/her spouse (2.41, 95% confidence interval; 1.10-5.28) referring to living with spouse only. When adjusting activities inside and outside the home such as housework additionally, the association was attenuated to marginal significance (2.25, 0.98-5.18). No statistical significance was observed in men. CONCLUSIONS These results suggested that living with child and spouse of a child was associated with the future decline in women's functional capacity.
Activities of Daily Living ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment ; Humans ; Independent Living ; statistics & numerical data ; Japan ; Longitudinal Studies ; Male ; Self Report

Objective: To evaluate the frailty status and understand the relationship between the incidence of fall and frailty status in the elderly in Beijing. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in old people aged ≥60 years in Longtan community of Dongcheng district in Beijing from November 2015 to January 2016. The information about any fall during the past year and frailty status of the elderly were collected with a standardized structured questionnaire in face-to-face interviews. The frailty status of elderly people was assessed with frailty index (FI) method. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between fall and frailty status among the elderly. Results: Among 1 557 old people surveyed, the incidence of fall was 17.8% (277/1 557) during the past year. The incidence of fall in women (21.0%, 192/277) was statistically higher than that in men (13.3%, 85/277) (χ(2)=15.288, P=0.000). The median (quartile) value of FI of the elderly surveyed was 0.09 (0.08); and women had a higher FI median value than men [0.10 (0.08) versus 0.08 (0.07)](Z=5.376, P=0.000). The median FI value (quartile range) of 277 old people with history of fall in previous year was 0.12 (0.11), which was higher than the median FI value of 0.08 (0.07) of 1 280 old people without fall history (Z=7.501, P=0.000). Logistic regression analysis showed that higher FI value was associated with more risks for fall; and FI value showed the greatest impact on the incidence and frequency of fall (OR=1.093, 2.234) compared with other related factors of fall, such as age and gender. Conclusion: Frailty status has a greater impact on both incidence and frequency of fall compared with other factors in elderly people in Beijing; more attention should be paid to weak and old adults in the prevention of fall.
Accidental Falls/statistics & numerical data* ; Adult ; Aged ; Beijing ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Frail Elderly ; Frailty ; Geriatric Assessment ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Urban Population

BACKGROUND: Among former Olympic-level athletes, engagement in different sport disciplines has been associated with mortality risk in subsequent years. However, limited evidence is available on whether engagement in different sport disciplines at a young age is associated with locomotive syndrome (LS) risk later in life. This study examined the relationship between engagement in different sport disciplines during university years and LS risk in older age among former university athletes. METHODS: Participants were 274 middle-aged and 294 older men alumni who graduated from a school of physical education in Japan. LS risk was defined as answering "yes" to any of the Loco-check questions. Data on university sports club membership were collected using questionnaires. University clubs were classified into three groups of cardiovascular intensity (low, moderate, high), following the classification system of sport disciplines by the American College of Cardiology. This classification considers the static and dynamic components of an activity, which correspond to the estimated percent of maximal voluntary contraction reached and maximal oxygen uptake achieved, respectively. University clubs were grouped based on the risk of bodily collision (no, yes) and extent of physical contact (low, moderate, high). Relationships between engagement in different sport disciplines and LS risk were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, and adjusted for age, height, weight, joint disease, habitual exercise, and smoking and drinking status. RESULTS: Adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the low, moderate, and high cardiovascular intensity sports were 1.00 (reference), 0.48 (0.22-1.06, P = 0.070), and 0.44 (0.20-0.97, P = 0.042) in older men, respectively; however, there was no significant association between these parameters among middle-aged men. Engagement in sports associated with physical contact and collision did not affect LS risk in either group. CONCLUSIONS Engagement in sports associated with high cardiovascular intensity during university years may reduce the risk of LS in later life. Encouraging young people to participate in such activities might help reduce LS prevalence among older populations.
Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Athletes/statistics & numerical data* ; Exercise ; Geriatric Assessment ; Humans ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Locomotion ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mobility Limitation ; Motor Disorders/etiology* ; Postural Balance ; Prevalence ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; Sports/statistics & numerical data* ; Syndrome ; Young Adult

INTRODUCTIONFalls are common among older people. Previous studies have shown that falls were multifactorial. However, data regarding community-dwelling Chinese population are minimal. We aimed to study factors associated with falls among community-dwelling older Chinese people.

MATERIALS AND METHODSWe conducted a cross-sectional study in a community hospital in Taiwan in 2010. Our sample included 671 elders from the 3680 examinees of the free annual Senior Citizens Health Examination. Participants were interviewed with a detailed questionnaire, and 317 elders were further invited for serum vitamin D tests. The main outcome was falls in the previous 12 months. Predictor variables included sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle risk factors, body stature, frailty, serum 25 (OH) D levels, and medications.

RESULTSThe mean age of the 671 participants was 75.7 ± 6.4 years old, and 48.7% of which were female. Fallers comprised 21.0% of the study population. In multivariate models, female gender (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.32), loss of height in adulthood (aOR: 1.52), low body weight (aOR: 2.69), central obesity (aOR: 1.67), frailty (aOR: 1.56), polypharmacy (aOR: 2.18) and hyperglycaemia (aOR: 1.56) were factors associated with falls. Vitamin D insufficiency (serum 25 (OH) D levels <30 ng/mL) was not associated with falls (OR: 0.78; 95% CI, 0.38 to 1.60) (n = 317) in this study.

CONCLUSIONAmong community-dwelling older people in Taiwan, falls were mainly associated with female gender, polypharmacy, frailty, reduced body height, low body weight or central obesity, and hyperglycaemia. In addition to other risk factors, body stature should be considered as a novel risk factor when screening elders at risk for falls.

Accidental Falls ; prevention & control ; statistics & numerical data ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Body Constitution ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Demography ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment ; methods ; Humans ; Hyperglycemia ; epidemiology ; Independent Living ; statistics & numerical data ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Odds Ratio ; Polypharmacy ; Risk Assessment ; methods ; statistics & numerical data ; Risk Factors ; Sex Factors ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Taiwan ; epidemiology

BACKGROUND: To let the early elderly live well, understanding how lifestyle and psychosocial factors related to a decline in competence in daily living is important. METHODS: We investigated the associations between lifestyle and psychosocial factors at age 64 years and a decline in the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence score of ≥ 2 points at age 70 years among the participants in comprehensive medical check-ups living in a city in Japan. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed separately for men and women. RESULTS: Of the 1113 eligible men and 1203 eligible women, 110 men and 80 women showed a deteriorated competence in daily living during the 6 years. In men, risk was increased with ≥ 2 nighttime awakenings (multivariable odds ratio [mOR] 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-3.86) and living alone (mOR 4.68, 95% CI 1.22-18.0), whereas risk was significantly decreased with a medium or fast gait (mOR 0.37 and 0.21, 95% CI 0.21-0.67 and 0.08-0.58) and high academic achievement (mOR 0.32 and 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.53 and 0.25-0.72). In women, risk was decreased with high life satisfaction (mOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.91) and participation in community activities (mOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.86) but increased with depressive mood (mOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.09-3.18). CONCLUSION Living alone for men and low life satisfaction for women at age 64 years were markedly associated with the risk of a subsequent declining competence in daily living.
Activities of Daily Living ; psychology ; Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Community-Based Participatory Research ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment ; Healthy Aging ; Humans ; Independent Living ; psychology ; statistics & numerical data ; Japan ; Life Style ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Physical Functional Performance ; Protective Factors ; Risk Factors ; Surveys and Questionnaires

BACKGROUND: The Fujiwara-kyo Osteoporosis Risk in Men (FORMEN) study was launched to investigate risk factors for osteoporotic fractures, interactions of osteoporosis with other non-communicable chronic diseases, and effects of fracture on QOL and mortality. METHODS: FORMEN baseline study participants (in 2007 and 2008) included 2012 community-dwelling men (aged 65-93 years) in Nara prefecture, Japan. Clinical follow-up surveys were conducted 5 and 10 years after the baseline survey, and 1539 and 906 men completed them, respectively. Supplemental mail, telephone, and visit surveys were conducted with non-participants to obtain outcome information. Survival and fracture outcomes were determined for 2006 men, with 566 deaths identified and 1233 men remaining in the cohort at 10-year follow-up. COMMENTS The baseline survey covered a wide range of bone health-related indices including bone mineral density, trabecular microarchitecture assessment, vertebral imaging for detecting vertebral fractures, and biochemical markers of bone turnover, as well as comprehensive geriatric assessment items. Follow-up surveys were conducted to obtain outcomes including osteoporotic fracture, cardiovascular diseases, initiation of long-term care, and mortality. A complete list of publications relating to the FORMEN study can be found at https://www.med.kindai.ac.jp/pubheal/FORMEN/Publications.html .
Aged ; Bone Density ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Cohort Studies ; Geriatric Assessment ; Humans ; Independent Living ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Long-Term Care/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Osteoporosis/etiology* ; Osteoporotic Fractures/etiology* ; Risk Factors