Objective: To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) according to the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha, and to explore the feasibility of the multiple seasonal ARIMA in predicting the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence. Methods: EVIEWS 6.0 was used to establish multiple seasonal ARIMA according to the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence from May 2008 to August 2013 in Changsha, and the data of the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence from September 2013 to February 2014 were served as the examinedsamples of the multiple seasonal ARIMA, then the errors were compared between the forecasted incidence and the real value. Finally, the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from March 2014 to August 2014 was predicted by the model. Results: Atfer the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identiifcation and model diagnosis, the multiple seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was established. The R2 value of the model iftting degree was 0.81, the root mean square prediction error was 8.29 and the mean absolute error was 5.83. Conclusion: hTe multiple seasonal ARIMA is a good prediction model, and the iftting degree is good. It can provide reference for the prevention and control work in hand-foot-mouth disease.

Objective To explore the significance of peritubular capillary C4d deposition in histopathological changes, renal function and prognosis of the patients with antibody-mediated chronic rejection (AMCR). Methods Deposition of C4d in the kidney was examined by irnmunohistochemistry on routine paraffin-embedded sections using anti-C4d polyclonal antibody. Seventy-seven patients were divided into C4d+ group (n = 35) and C4d- group (n = 42). The relationship of C4d and renal function,histopathological changes and prognoses of allografts were analyzed. Results The number of patients with tubular atrophy and glomerular basement membrane proliferation in C4d+ group was significantly more than that in C4d group (P＜0.05). Mean serum creatinine level was significantly higher in C4d+ group than in C4d- group 12 months after renal transplantation [(379.1 + 260.2)μmol/L vs (260.5 + 175.3) μmol/L, P＜0.05]. According to Kaplan-Meier analysis, the one-year graft survival rate was lower in the C4d+ group (62.9% ) than in the C4d- group (83.3% ) (logrank P＜0.05). Conclusion Patients with C4d deposition are associated with tubular atrophy and glomerular basement membrane proliferation. The serum creatinine level in C4d+ patients was significantly higher than in C4d- group at the 12th month after transplantation. More patients with C4d deposition lost their grafts during the study period.

Objective To evaluate the feasibility and clinical effect of stage Ⅰ posterior vertebral corpectomy filled with titanium mesh cages plus long-segmental instrumentation for treatment of Denis type D and E severe unstable thoracolumbar burst fracture.Methods A retrospectively review was made on 14 patients with Denis type D and E severe unstable thoracolumbar burst fracture,having had posterior vertebral corpectomy,titanium mesh bone grafting and long-segmental pedicle screw fixation.Parameters recorded were operation time,amount of bleeding,bone fusion and reduction,postoperative complications,low back pain,neurological performance,restoration and loss of anterior vertebral height,correction and loss of kyphosis,and intraspinal space occupying lesion.Results Mean operation time was 207.1 min (range,148-306 min) and blood loss was 585 ml (range,300-1,500 ml).Intraoperative fracture reduction was satisfactory.Follow-up ranged from 18 to 54 months (mean,28 months),which showed no complications of infection,screw-rod breakage,loosening or shifting of the internal fixation device,titanium mesh subsidence and pseudarthrosis,and no signs of adjacent segment degeneration.Six months after operation,CT scan showed bony fusion of the bone-implant interface.At the final follow-up,the Denis pain scale improved significantly including 12 patients with completely relieve of pain (P1) and 2 ache slightly but no need of taking painkiller (P2).Neurological functions were improved by 1-3 degree in all patients.Percentage of anterior vertebral height was (41.2 ± 8.9)％ before operation,significantly reduced to (8.3 ± 4.8) ％ one week after operation and to (8.9 ± 5.1) ％ at the final follow-up (P ＜0.01).Mean loss of anterior vertebral height was 0.6％.Sagittal kyphotic angle was (36.9 ± 4.9) °before operation,significantly reduced to (8.1 ± 3.4) ° one week after operation and (8.5 ± 3.8) °at the final follow-up (P ＜0.01).Mean loss of kyphotic angle was 0.9°.Ratio of intraspinal space occupancy was (74.9 ± 11.3) ％ before operation but recovered to (4.1 ± 1.6) ％ one week after operation and (1.8 ± 1.4) ％ at the final follow-up,with significant differences in pair comparison (P ＜ 0.01).Conclusion The use of posterior vertebral corpectomy and fusion with titanium mesh cage fusion in conjunction with long-segment instrumentation are effective for spinal canal decompression,fracture reduction,three-column reconstruction as well as rigid fusion at one stage,lumbar pain relief,neurological function recovery,prevention of correction loss and vertebral height restoration.

ObjectiveTo investigate the efficacy of rapamycin combined with CsA/Tacrolimus (Tac) in chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN).MethodsFifty-three cases of CAN accepted the quadruple immunosuppressive drug program,which contained rapamycin combined with CsA/Tac and MMF and prednisone,and CsA/Tac and MMF were reduced to the original amount of 25％ to 50％.After treatment for 12 months,more relevant indicators,including serum creatinine,glomerular filtration rate,serum cholesterol,triglycerides,urinary protein,GPT and bilirubin and other changes were observed.ResultsIn the patients receiving quadruple regimen of rapamycin during 12 months,the blood Ccr was decreased from (161.51 ± 106.48)μmol/L before treatment to (126.51 ± 56.2)μmol/L after treatment for 6 months (P＜0.05) and to (123.43 ± 54.18)μmol/L after for 12 months (P＜0.01).The GFR was increased from (0.754 ± 0.302) ml/s before treatment to (0.952 ± 0.347)ml/s after treatment for 6 months (P＜0.05) and to (1.007 ± 0.394) ml/s after treatment for 12 months (P＜0.01).Cholesterol and triglycerides in patients had no significant change before and after treatment.The positive rate of proteinuria after treatment showed an increasing trend from 9.4％ before treatment to 26.4％ after treatment for 12 months.ConclusionThe quadruple program of rapamycin combined with CsA/FK506 and MMF can significantly improve Ccr and GFR in patients with CAN,but it can increase the incidence of proteinuria in patients:

Objective To assess the therapeutic efficacy of a recombined adenovirus expressing p53 (rAd-p53) via intrapleural injec-tion in the treatment of lung cancer with malignant pleural effusion. Methods Thirty-six cases with lung cancer and malignant pleural effu-sion were randomly divided into two groups,which were given intravenous injection of Nedaplatin with (observation group,n=20) or without (control group,n=16) intrapleural injection of rAd-p53,respectively. Between the two groups,the efficacy in treatment of pleural effusion, the amelioration of maximal ventilatory volume ( MVV) ,Kamofsky scoring ( KPS) and quality of life were compared. Results The efficacy in treatment of pleural effusion in observation group are significantly higher than that in control group(17/20 vs. 50%,P<0. 05). The cases with KPS≥80 in observation group were significantly increased following treatment (5/20 vs. 11/20,P <0. 05). However,there was no difference with the cases in control group. Conclusion Intrapleural injection of recombinant adenovirus expressing p53 (rAd-p53) is effec-tive to reduce the occurrence of malignant pleural effusion and increase the quality of life remarkably.

In this paper, the mechanism of destroying human alveolar epithelial cells and pulmonary tissue by 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was discussed firstly. There may be multiple mechanisms including killing directly the target cells and hyperinflammatory responses. Secondly, the clinical features, CT imaging, short-term and long-term pulmonary function damage of the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) was analyzed. Finally, some suggestions for thoracic surgery clinical practice in non-epidemic area during and after the epidemic of COVID-19 was provided, to help all the thoracic surgery patients receive active and effective treatment.

Objective Less surveys on the economic burden of hepatitis B (HB)-related diseases have been conducted in China,so the socioeconomic harm caused by the diseases is not clear and the key parameters for economic evaluation of hepatitis B prevention and treatment are lacking.This study aimed to analyze the direct,indirect and intangible expenditures of hospitalized patients with HB-related diseases during hospitalization and during a year in different areas of China.Methods The hospitals for infectious diseases and the large general hospitals in 12 areas in China were selected in the study.All the inpatients with HB-related diseases were surveyed by cluster sampling of consecutive cases.The direct expenditure included direct medical cost and direct non-medical cost.The indirect expenditure,including work loss of patients and caregivers,were calculated by using human capital method for urban and rural populations in 12 areas.The intangible expenditure were reflected by willing to pay and stochastic tournament.The influencing factors of direct and indirect costs were identified by stepwise linear multi-variation regression analysis.Results A total of 27 hospitals in 12 areas were included in the survey.A total of 4 718 cases were surveyed,the overall response rate was 77.7％.The average hospital stay was 29.2 days (27-34) and the hospitalization expenditure was averagely 16 832.80 yuan (RMB) per case,in which the highest proportion (61.2％)was medicine fees [10 365.10 yuan (RMB)].The average direct expenditure and indirect expenditure were consistent with the severity of illness,which were 18 336.10 yuan (RMB) and 4 759.60 yuan (RMB) respectively,with the ratio of 3.85:1.The direct medical expenditure [17 434.70 yuan (RMB)] were substantially higher than the direct non-medical expenditure [901.40 yuan (RMB)].It was found that the hospitalization expenses was highest in direct medical expenditure and the transportation expenses was highest in direct non-medical expenditures.Among the average indirect expenditure,the loss of income for the patients [3 832.50 yuan (RMB)] was higher than that for the caregivers [927.20 yuan (RMB)],The total direct and indirect expenditure was highest for liver transplantation,followed by severe hepatitis,hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis,acute hepatitis B,compensated cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis B.The influencing factors for both direct and indirect expenditure were high hospital level,severity of hepatitis B,living in urban area,antiviral therapy,long hospitalization and monthly income of family.For average 3.74 outpatient visits and 1.51 hospitalization,the average annual direct,indirect and intangible expenditure for HB-related diseases were 30 135.30,6 253.80 and 44 729.90 yuan (RMB) [totally 81 119.00 yuan (RMB)],accounting for 37.3％,7.7％ and 55.0％,respectively.Of the annual direct medical expenditure [28 402.80 yuan (RMB)],which were much higher than non-medical expenditure [1 732.50 yuan (RMB)],hospitalization expenditure [26 074.20 yuan (RMB)] was higher than outpatient visit expenditure [4 061.10 yuan (RMB)].The annual indirect expenditures for outpatient visit and hospitalization were 763.60 and 5 490.10 yuan (RMB),respectively.Of the annual intangible expenditure,the highest was that for/primary hepatocellular carcinoma,followed by cirrhosis,chronic hepatitis B,severe hepatitis B,liver transplantation and acute hepatitis B.Conclusions A heavy economic burden has been caused by HB-related diseases in China,and patients are more likely to rely on medical service rather than non-medical service.It is necessary to take effective treatment measures to prevent the adverse outcome of HB related diseases and achieve significant economic benefits.The influence of HB related diseases on mental health of the people can be reflected by an economics term,intangible expenditure.

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of a dengue fever outbreak in Hunan province in 2018.Methods:Real-time PCR assay was performed for the laboratory diagnosis of 8 suspected dengue fever cases. Etiological surveillance was performed in 186 suspected dengue fever cases and fever cases who had close contacts with dengue fever patients. C6/36 cells was used for the virus isolation from acute phase serum. By sequencing the full length of E genes of 15 dengue virus strains, phylogenetic analysis was performed based on the sequences obtained, including reference sequences from the NCBI GenBank database, the serotypes and gene subtypes of the virus were analyzed to trace the possible source of transmission. An emergency monitoring of vector density and a retrospective survey of sero-epidemiology in healthy population were conducted in the epidemic area.Results:In the serum samples of 8 suspected patients, 6 were dengue virus RNA positive, and 4 were NS1 antigen positive. In 186 suspected patients, 96 were dengue virus nucleic acid, NS1 antigen or antibody positive in etiological test. A total of 64 dengue virus strains were isolated. The phylogenetic analysis showed that all the dengue virus strains belonged to type 2, which might be from Guangdong or Zhejiang provinces. The Bretub index was up to 65, indicating an extremely high risk of transmission. The positive rate of the dengue virus IgG antibody was 0.53%(2/377) in retrospective survey of 377 healthy people.Conclusion:The field epidemiologic and the molecular genetics analyses showed the outbreak of dengue fever in Hunan in 2018 was caused by imported cases and dengue virus 2.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) will reduce the cardiopulmonary function and increase perioperative risk. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of preoperative short-term high intensity lung rehabilitation training on lung function and postoperative complications in patients with COPD who are eligible for lung cancer surgery. METHODS: We analysis of 101 patients with COPD and a diagnosis of lung cancer, with 43 patients in pulmonary rehabilitation group and 58 patients in conventional group. The pulmonary function, postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) and length of stay (LOS) will be compared between the two groups, the lung function will be compared before and after the rehabilitation at the same time. RESULTS: There were no significant difference between the two groups in general information, lung function before surgery, postoperative pulmonary infection [8 (18.6%) vs 17 (29.3%)], atelectasis [1 (2.3%) vs 1 (1.7%)], respiratory failure [1 (2.3%) vs 2 (3.4%)] and postoperative LOS [(8.93±3.78) d vs (9.62±3.98) d, P>0.05]. In the rehabilitation group, the FEV1 [(2.06±0.45) L vs (2.15±0.45) L, P<0.001] and PEF [(4.32±0.90) L/s vs (5.15±1.05) L/s, P<0.001) were higher, and PCO2 [(42.42±2.79) mmHg vs (41.58±2.98) mmHg, P=0.009] was lower after rehabilitation, significantly. The increase value of FEV1 in moderate to severe COPD group was higher than that of the mild COPD group after the rehabilitation [(0.16±0.05) L, 8.6% vs (0.06±0.05) L, 2.8%, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The short-term highly-intensity lung rehabilitation can improve lung function in lung cancer patients with COPD, and the improvement of pulmonary function in moderate to severe COPD patients is more obviously.
Female ; Humans ; Lung Neoplasms ; complications ; rehabilitation ; surgery ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Perioperative Period ; Postoperative Complications ; etiology ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ; complications ; Retrospective Studies ; Safety

Objective: To analyze the effectiveness and response status of China Infectious Disease Automated Alert and Response System (CIDARS) in Hunan province from 2012 to 2016 for improving the system. Methods: To collect the early warning signals, the number of suspected events, the result of on-site investigation, the signal response time and the result of public health emergencies, and the χ² test, correlation analysis and non-parametric test were used to analyze the information on CIDARS in Hunan Province during the period from 2012 to 2016. Results: A total of 108 188 signals were generated by the CIDARS in Hunan Province; The warning involved 30 kinds of infectious diseases and 138 counties (districts), and each county (district) received 3.00 weekly warning messages on average; 100% early warning signal was responded, 2 h response rate was 92.43%; The median response time (P25-P75) was 0.28 (0.11-0.77) h in the single case warning, and the five-year timely response rate showed an upward trend year by year (trend χ²=58.89, P<0.05); the median response time (P25-P75) was 0.56 (0.28~1.06) h in the time series warning, and the five-year timely response rate showed no trend (trend χ²=2.43, P>0.05); the time series warning response was more timely than the single case warning, and the difference between the two timely response rates was statistically significant(χ²=5156.60, P<0.05). The studies showed that the sensitivity, specificity, and detection timeliness of the system were 84.80%, 69.53%, and 2.80 d, respectively; There was no significant difference in the infectious diseases detecting timeliness of CIDARS(H=8.75, P>0.05); the system had the best effect in rubella, and the positive likelihood ratio of rubella is 4.36. Conclusions CIDARS in Hunan province runs well overall with high sensitivity and timely response to the early warning signals, but the specificity of the early warning system needs to be improved. The quality of the epidemic report of infectious diseases needs to be further improved, and the early warning parameters and warning method should be adjusted according to the characteristics of different diseases and the differences among different regions.