5.Estimation of COVID-19 incidence in Shanghai under optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies.
Xin Yu WANG ; Meng Di ZHANG ; Wen Long ZHU ; Zhi Xi LIU ; Wei Bing WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(4):552-560
Objective: To quantitatively estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in different backgrounds, including vaccination coverage, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures, home quarantine willingness and international arrivals, and the demands of healthcare resource in Shanghai in the context of optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the natural history of 2019-nCoV, local vaccination coverage and NPI performance, an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infections-Removed (SEIR) epidemic dynamic model was established for the estimation of the incidence of COVID-19 and demand of hospital beds in Shanghai by using the data on December 1, 2022 as the basis. Results: Based on current vaccination coverage, it is estimated that 180 184 COVID-19 cases would need treatment in hospitals in Shanghai within 100 days. When the booster vaccination coverage reaches an ideal level, the number of the cases needing hospitalization would decrease by 73.20%. School closure or school closure plus workplace closure could reduce the peak demand of regular beds by 24.04% or 37.73%, respectively, compared with the situation without NPI. Increased willingness of home quarantine could reduce the number of daily new cases and delay incidence peak of COVID-19. The number of international arrivals has little impact on the development of the epidemic. Conclusions: According to the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and the actual situation of vaccination in Shanghai, the incidence of COVID-19 and health resource demand might be reduced by increasing vaccination coverage and early implementation of NPI.
Humans
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COVID-19/prevention & control*
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Incidence
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China/epidemiology*
;
Epidemics/prevention & control*
;
SARS-CoV-2
6.Progress in research on HIV cluster detection and response.
Huan Chang YAN ; Yu LIU ; Shi Xing TANG ; Jing GU ; Yuan Tao HAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(4):677-682
HIV cluster detection and response (CDR) is a critical strategy to end the HIV epidemic by offering information to identify prevention and care services gaps. The risk metrics for HIV clusters can be classified into three groups: growth-based metrics, characteristic-based metrics, and phylogeny-based metrics. When identifying HIV risk clusters, the public health response can reach people in the affected networks, including people with undiagnosed HIV, people with diagnosed HIV who might not be accessing HIV care or other services, and people without HIV who would benefit from prevention services. To provide references for HIV precise prevention in China, we summarized the risk metrics and the intervention measures for CDR.
Humans
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HIV Infections/prevention & control*
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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology*
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Public Health
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Epidemics/prevention & control*
;
China/epidemiology*
7.Discussion on Management of Epidemic Prevention Consumables in Response to COVID-19 in Our Hospital.
Wenjun MAO ; Shuang CHEN ; Lei ZHANG ; Huijun SUN
Chinese Journal of Medical Instrumentation 2020;44(4):363-366
Compared with normal medical consumables, the management of epidemic prevention consumables in response to COVID-19 is special. Based on the practical management experience of a hospital in Shanghai, this article expounds through various aspects such as classified protection requirements, interpretation of domestic and foreign standards for epidemic prevention consumables, targeted use countermeasures, material supply of Hubei medical teams, and the management of inbound and outbound of epidemic prevention consumables, covering the whole process of epidemic prevention consumables management. The purpose of this paper is to provide ideas and references for the management of epidemic prevention materials.
Betacoronavirus
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China
;
Coronavirus Infections
;
epidemiology
;
prevention & control
;
therapy
;
Epidemics
;
Hospitals
;
Humans
;
Pandemics
;
prevention & control
;
Pneumonia, Viral
;
epidemiology
;
prevention & control
;
therapy
8.Epidemiological characteristics of local COVID-19 epidemics and control experience in routine prevention and control phase in China.
Yan ZHOU ; Jian Peng XIAO ; Jian Xiong HU ; Hao Jie ZHONG ; Qian ZHANG ; Xin Shan XIE ; Guan Hao HE ; Zu Hua RONG ; Jian Xiang ZHAN ; Wen Jun MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(4):466-477
The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing in the world, the risk of COVID-19 spread from other countries or in the country will exist for a long term in China. In the routine prevention and control phase, a number of local COVID-19 epidemics have occurred in China, most COVID-19 cases were sporadic ones, but a few case clusters or outbreaks were reported. Winter and spring were the seasons with high incidences of the epidemics; border and port cities had higher risk for outbreaks. Active surveillance in key populations was an effective way for the early detection of the epidemics. Through a series of comprehensive prevention and control measures, including mass nucleic acid screening, close contact tracing and isolation, classified management of areas and groups at risk, wider social distancing and strict travel management, the local COVID-19 epidemics have been quickly and effectively controlled. The experiences obtained in the control of the local epidemics would benefit the routine prevention and control of COVID-19 in China. The occurrence of a series of COVID-19 case clusters or outbreaks has revealed the weakness or deficiencies in the COVID-19 prevention and control in China, so this paper suggests some measures for the improvement of the future prevention and control of COVID-19.
COVID-19/prevention & control*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Contact Tracing
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Epidemics/prevention & control*
;
Humans
;
Pandemics/prevention & control*
;
SARS-CoV-2
9.Current Status and Progress of Early Lung Cancer Screening under the Normal State of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control.
Yuyang WANG ; Na ZHOU ; Dong LIU ; Xiaochun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2021;24(1):31-35
Lung cancer is the malignant tumor with the highest incidence in China. Early detection and identification of symptomatic lung cancer patients and timely screen out asymptomatic patients from high-risk groups require multiple cooperation. At present, although combined imaging, serology, genomics, proteomics and other methods have been combined to screen for suspected lung cancer, there are still problems such as missed diagnosis and misdiagnosis. Meanwhile, the spread of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has brought new challenges to early lung cancer screening. Under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the work of early lung cancer screening should be changed accordingly: improve the population's awareness of cancer prevention and control, strengthen the management of medical procedures, improve the efficiency of tumor detection, optimize detection technology, and utilize internet and big data platforms rationally. We should establish an ideal model, combining multiple screening methods, which is streamlined and efficient for early lung cancer screening under normal epidemic prevention and control.
.
COVID-19/epidemiology*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Early Detection of Cancer
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Epidemics
;
Humans
;
Lung Neoplasms/prevention & control*