5.Estimation of COVID-19 incidence in Shanghai under optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies.
Xin Yu WANG ; Meng Di ZHANG ; Wen Long ZHU ; Zhi Xi LIU ; Wei Bing WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(4):552-560
Objective: To quantitatively estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in different backgrounds, including vaccination coverage, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures, home quarantine willingness and international arrivals, and the demands of healthcare resource in Shanghai in the context of optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the natural history of 2019-nCoV, local vaccination coverage and NPI performance, an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infections-Removed (SEIR) epidemic dynamic model was established for the estimation of the incidence of COVID-19 and demand of hospital beds in Shanghai by using the data on December 1, 2022 as the basis. Results: Based on current vaccination coverage, it is estimated that 180 184 COVID-19 cases would need treatment in hospitals in Shanghai within 100 days. When the booster vaccination coverage reaches an ideal level, the number of the cases needing hospitalization would decrease by 73.20%. School closure or school closure plus workplace closure could reduce the peak demand of regular beds by 24.04% or 37.73%, respectively, compared with the situation without NPI. Increased willingness of home quarantine could reduce the number of daily new cases and delay incidence peak of COVID-19. The number of international arrivals has little impact on the development of the epidemic. Conclusions: According to the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and the actual situation of vaccination in Shanghai, the incidence of COVID-19 and health resource demand might be reduced by increasing vaccination coverage and early implementation of NPI.
Humans
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COVID-19/prevention & control*
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Incidence
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China/epidemiology*
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Epidemics/prevention & control*
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SARS-CoV-2
6.Progress in research on HIV cluster detection and response.
Huan Chang YAN ; Yu LIU ; Shi Xing TANG ; Jing GU ; Yuan Tao HAO
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(4):677-682
HIV cluster detection and response (CDR) is a critical strategy to end the HIV epidemic by offering information to identify prevention and care services gaps. The risk metrics for HIV clusters can be classified into three groups: growth-based metrics, characteristic-based metrics, and phylogeny-based metrics. When identifying HIV risk clusters, the public health response can reach people in the affected networks, including people with undiagnosed HIV, people with diagnosed HIV who might not be accessing HIV care or other services, and people without HIV who would benefit from prevention services. To provide references for HIV precise prevention in China, we summarized the risk metrics and the intervention measures for CDR.
Humans
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HIV Infections/prevention & control*
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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology*
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Public Health
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Epidemics/prevention & control*
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China/epidemiology*
7.Discussion on Management of Epidemic Prevention Consumables in Response to COVID-19 in Our Hospital.
Wenjun MAO ; Shuang CHEN ; Lei ZHANG ; Huijun SUN
Chinese Journal of Medical Instrumentation 2020;44(4):363-366
Compared with normal medical consumables, the management of epidemic prevention consumables in response to COVID-19 is special. Based on the practical management experience of a hospital in Shanghai, this article expounds through various aspects such as classified protection requirements, interpretation of domestic and foreign standards for epidemic prevention consumables, targeted use countermeasures, material supply of Hubei medical teams, and the management of inbound and outbound of epidemic prevention consumables, covering the whole process of epidemic prevention consumables management. The purpose of this paper is to provide ideas and references for the management of epidemic prevention materials.
Betacoronavirus
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China
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Coronavirus Infections
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epidemiology
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prevention & control
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therapy
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Epidemics
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Hospitals
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Humans
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Pandemics
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prevention & control
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Pneumonia, Viral
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epidemiology
;
prevention & control
;
therapy
8.Epidemiological characteristics of local COVID-19 epidemics and control experience in routine prevention and control phase in China.
Yan ZHOU ; Jian Peng XIAO ; Jian Xiong HU ; Hao Jie ZHONG ; Qian ZHANG ; Xin Shan XIE ; Guan Hao HE ; Zu Hua RONG ; Jian Xiang ZHAN ; Wen Jun MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2022;43(4):466-477
The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing in the world, the risk of COVID-19 spread from other countries or in the country will exist for a long term in China. In the routine prevention and control phase, a number of local COVID-19 epidemics have occurred in China, most COVID-19 cases were sporadic ones, but a few case clusters or outbreaks were reported. Winter and spring were the seasons with high incidences of the epidemics; border and port cities had higher risk for outbreaks. Active surveillance in key populations was an effective way for the early detection of the epidemics. Through a series of comprehensive prevention and control measures, including mass nucleic acid screening, close contact tracing and isolation, classified management of areas and groups at risk, wider social distancing and strict travel management, the local COVID-19 epidemics have been quickly and effectively controlled. The experiences obtained in the control of the local epidemics would benefit the routine prevention and control of COVID-19 in China. The occurrence of a series of COVID-19 case clusters or outbreaks has revealed the weakness or deficiencies in the COVID-19 prevention and control in China, so this paper suggests some measures for the improvement of the future prevention and control of COVID-19.
COVID-19/prevention & control*
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China/epidemiology*
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Contact Tracing
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Epidemics/prevention & control*
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Humans
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Pandemics/prevention & control*
;
SARS-CoV-2
9.Analysis on prevalence and epidemic risk of animal plague in different ecological plague foci in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Bo Xi LIU ; Ran DUAN ; Hao Hui WANG ; Da Yu ZHANG ; Shuai QIN ; Hong Yan LUO ; Jun LIU ; Jun Rong LIANG ; De Ming TANG ; Huai Qi JING ; Jian WANG ; Xin WANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2022;56(1):9-14
The risk of plague epidemics and relapse of various types of plague foci persists in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. For Marmota sibirica plague foci, the animal plague has not been found but antibody has been detected positive. Nowadays, Marmota sibirica has been increasing in population and distribution in China. In bordering countries Mongolia and Russia, the animal plague has been continuously prevalent. For Spermophilus dauricus plague foci, the animal plague has been taken place now and then. Compared to the above foci, the animal plague is most prevalent in Meriones unguiculatus plague foci and frequently spread to humans. Due to higher strain virulence and historical disaster in Marmota sibirica plague foci and Spermophilus dauricus plague foci, plague prevention and control should be strengthened on these foci. In addition to routine surveillance, epidemic dynamics need to be further monitored in these two foci, in order to prevent their relapse and spread to humans.
Animals
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China/epidemiology*
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Epidemics
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Humans
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Plague/prevention & control*
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Prevalence
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Sciuridae
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Yersinia pestis
10.Application and reflection of laboratory-based monitoring in early warning of infectious diseases.
Hai Jian ZHOU ; Zhi Gang CUI ; Biao KAN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2022;56(4):401-404
Despite the fact that our cognition towards infectious disease prevention, the advanced technology and the economic status of the whole society has made a great progress in the last decade, the outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia has again enabled the public to acquire more about super-challenges of infectious diseases, epidemics and the relevant preventive measurements. In order to identify the epidemic signals in early stage or even before the onset of epidemic, the data research and utilization of a series of factors related to the occurrence and transmission of infectious diseases have played a significant role in research of prevention and control during the whole period of surveillance and early warning. Laboratory-based monitoring for the etiology has always been an important part of infectious disease warning system due to pathogens as the direct cause of such diseases. China has initially established a laboratory-based monitoring and early warning system for bacterial infectious diseases based on the Chinese Pathogen Identification Network with an aim to identify pathogens, outbreaks and sources. This network has played an essential role in early detection, tracking and precise prevention and control of bacterial infectious diseases, such as plague, cholera, and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis. This issue focuses on the function of laboratory-based monitoring during the period of early warning, prevention, and control of bacterial infectious diseases, and conducted a wide range of researches based on the analysis of the epidemic and outbreak isolates, together with field epidemiological studies and normal monitoring systems. All of these could illustrate the effect of laboratory surveillance in the infectious disease risk assessment and epidemic investigation. At the same time, we have put forward our review and expectation of scenarios about laboratory-based monitoring and early warning technologies to provide innovative thoughts for promoting a leapfrog development of infectious disease monitoring and early warning system in China.
Bacterial Infections/epidemiology*
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COVID-19
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Communicable Diseases/epidemiology*
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Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control*
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Epidemics
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Humans
;
Laboratories