OBJECTIVETo evaluate the prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and deltaMELD in liver failure patients infected with hepatitis B virus.

METHODSBased on prospective study design, 98 hospitalized cases were studied and followed up for 24 weeks. The clinical data were recorded. We calculated the score of MELD and deltaMELD, and also compare the score between the survival group and death group. Using ROC curve plotting obtained the better decisive threshold. The case fatality rate were compared at different time points which the patients were classified by the best critical value of MELD and deltaMELD. We draw the Kaplan-Meier survival curve of different group and analyse the change of survival rate by log-rank analysis.

RESULTS52 of 97 patients died and 46 survive during 24 weeks of followup. There was significant difference between the two groups for MELD and deltaMELD (P < 0.01). The case fatality rate in group which MELD > or = 23 was obviously higher than in that MELD < 23. The rate in group which deltaMELD > 4.5 was obviously higher than in that deltaMELD < 4.5 (P < 0.001). The area under curve (AUC) for the twelfth and 24th week's prognosis judgment of deltaMELD (0.823, 0.815) was larger than that of MELD (0.680, 0.684) (P < 0.05). Survival analyses (Kaplan-Meier) indicated that there were significant differences in cumulative survival rates among the groups which were grouped by optimization critical value ( P = 0. 000).

CONCLUSIONSThe scoring system of MELD also applied to the forecasting of prognosis for severe hepatitis B patients in China. The accuracy of deltaMELD to predict the prognosis was higher than that of MELD. The combination of MELD and deltaMELD showed good clinical practical value.

End Stage Liver Disease ; diagnosis ; Hepatitis B ; complications ; Humans ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Liver Failure ; etiology ; mortality ; Models, Biological ; Prognosis ; ROC Curve ; Severity of Illness Index

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The modification of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system (Refit MELD) and the modification of MELD-Na (Refit MELDNa), which optimized the MELD coefficients, were published in 2011. We aimed to validate the superiority of the Refit MELDNa over the Refit MELD for the prediction of 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of patients admitted with hepatic cirrhosis and ascites to the Konkuk University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2011. The Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa were compared using the predictive value of the 3-month mortality, as assessed by the Child-Pugh score. RESULTS: In total, 530 patients were enrolled, 87 of whom died within 3 months. Alcohol was the most common etiology of their cirrhosis (n=271, 51.1%), and the most common cause of death was variceal bleeding (n=20, 23%). The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) for the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores were 0.754, 0.791, and 0.764 respectively; the corresponding values when the analysis was performed only in patients with persistent ascites (n=115) were 0.725, 0.804, and 0.796, respectively. The significant difference found among the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores was between the Child-Pugh score and Refit MELD in patients with persistent ascites (P=0.039). CONCLUSIONS: Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa exhibited good predictability for 3-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. However, Refit MELDNa was not found to be a better predictor than Refit MELD, despite the known relationship between hyponatremia and mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites.
Adult ; Aged ; Alcohol Drinking ; Area Under Curve ; *Ascites ; End Stage Liver Disease/complications/*diagnosis/mortality ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis/complications/*diagnosis ; Male ; Middle Aged ; *Models, Theoretical ; ROC Curve ; Retrospective Studies ; Severity of Illness Index ; Survival Analysis