Objective:To investigate the prognostic value of gastroepiploic lymph node (GLN) metastasis in transverse colon cancer.Methods:The propensity score matching and retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 371 patients with transverse colon cancer who were admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from November 2010 to November 2017 were collected. There were 202 males and 169 females, aged from 21 to 92 years, with a median age of 58 years. Patients were performed complete mesocolic excision combined with GLN dissection by one group of surgeons. Of the 371 patients with transverse colon cancer, 15 cases had positive GLN metastasis (GLN+), and 356 cases had negative GLN metastasis (GLN-). Observation indicators: (1) the propensity score matching conditions and comparison of baseline data between GLN- patients and GLN+patients with transverse colon cancer after propensity score matching; (2) follow-up and survival of GLN- patients and GLN+patients with transverse colon cancer; (3) influencing factors for prognosis of patients with transverse colon cancer. Patients were followed up by outpatient examination or telephone interview to detect tumor metastasis and survival. Follow-up was conducted once every 3 months within postoperative 2 years, once every 6 months within postoperative 2-5 years and once a year thereafter up to January 2020. The propensity score matching was conducted by 1∶4 matching using the nearest neighbor method. Measurement data with skewed distribution were described as M (range), and comparison between groups was analyzed using the rank sum test. Count data were represented as absolute numbers, and comparison between groups was analyzed using the chi-square test or Fisher exact probability. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rates and draw survival curves, and Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the COX proportional hazard regression model. The variables with P<0.10 in the univariate analysis were included for multivariate analysis. Results:(1) The propensity score matching conditions and comparison of baseline data between GLN- patients and GLN+ patients with transverse colon cancer after propensity score matching: 55 of 371 patients had successful matching, including 44 GLN- patients and 11 GLN+ patients. Before propensity score matching, the age, cases in stage 0 or stage 1 of M staging, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen were 60 years(range, 24-92 years), 328, 22, 4.1 μg/L(range, 0.2-343.7 μg/L) for GLN- patients, respectively, versus 67 years(range, 21-79 years), 11, 4, 5.0 μg/L(range, 0.7-952.4 μg/L) for GLN+ patients, showing significant differences in the above indicators between the two groups ( Z=-1.440, χ2=9.031, Z=-2.086, P<0.05). After propensity score matching, the above indicators were 58 years(range, 45-67 years), 40, 4, 4.0 μg/L(range, 2.0-10.0 μg/L) for GLN- patients, respectively, versus 67 years(range, 59-71 years), 9, 2, 5.0 μg/L(range, 8.0-19.0 μg/L) for GLN+ patients, showing no significant difference between the two groups ( Z=-1.580, χ2=0.105, Z=-0.821, P>0.05). (2) Follow-up and survival of GLN- patients and GLN+ patients with transverse colon cancer: GLN- patients and GLN+ patients with transverse colon cancer were followed-up for 12-92 months and 1-70 months, with a median time of 53 months and 30 months respectively. Three cases of GLN- patients and 2 cases of GLN+patients had postoperative liver metastasis, respectively, showing no significant difference between the two groups ( χ2 =0.344, P>0.05). One case of GLN- patients and 3 cases of GLN+ patients had heterochronous lung metastasis, respectively, showing a significant difference between the two groups ( χ2 =4.870, P<0.05). The 5-year disease progression-free survival rates were 82.3% and 33.9% for GLN- patients and GLN+ patients, respectively, showing a significant difference between the two groups ( χ2 =13.366, P<0.05). (3) Influencing factors for prognosis of patients with transverse colon cancer: results of univariate analysis showed that pT staging, pN staging, M staging and GLN metastasis were related factors for prognosis of patients with transverse colon cancer ( hazard ratio=1.599, 5.107, 4.511, 6.273, 95% confidence interval as 0.467-5.471, 1.867-13.971, 1.385-14.694, 2.052-19.176, P<0.05). Results of multivariate analysis showed that pN staging, M staging and GLN metastasis were independent influencing factors for prognosis of patients with transverse colon cancer ( hazard ratio=6.399, 6.163, 4.024, 95% confidence interval as 2.028-20.189, 1.666-22.800, 1.177-13.752, P<0.05). Conclusion:For the patients with transverse colon cancer, GLN metastasis is associated with high postoperative heterochronous lung metastasis rate and poor prognosis. GLN metastasis is an independent prognostic factor for patients with transverse colon cancer.

Objective:To investigate the feasibility and safety of sphincter-preserving surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) with consolidation chemotherapy in the interval period or total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) for low rectal cancer.Methods:A descriptive case series study was carried out. Clinical data of patients with locally advanced low rectal cancer (LALRC) who achieved complete clinical response (cCR) or nearly cCR (near-cCR) after nCRT at the Department of Colorectal Surgery of Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from May 2015 to February 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Case inclusion criteria: (1) Low rectal adenocarcinoma within 6 cm from the anal verge. (2) After nCRT, tumor presented markedly regression as mucosal nodule or abnormalities, superficial ulcer, scar or a mucosal erythema (< 2 cm); no regional lymph node metastasis or distant metastasis was found in rectal ultrasonography, pelvic MRI and PET-CT; MRI showed obvious fibrosis in the original tumor site; and post-treatment CEA was normal. (3) The patient and the family members adhered to receive the transanal full-thickness local excision with informed consent. (4) When the residual lesions were difficult to detect after nCRT, patients received the watch and wait (W&W) strategy. Exclusion criteria: (1) Before nCRT, pathological results showed poorly differentiated or signet-ring cell carcinoma; lateral lymph node metastasis was suspected. (2) When the residual lesion size was more than 3 cm after nCRT, it was difficult to perform local excision. The consolidation nCRT group received 3-4 cycles of CAPOX regimen (oxaliplatin and capecitabine) or six cycles of mFOLFOX6 (oxaliplatin, leucovorin, and 5-fluorouracil) combined with the long-course radiotherapy (intensity-modulated radiation therapy with a total dose of 50.4Gy). Patients with concurrent chemotherapy more than or equal to five cycles of CAPOX or eight cycles of mFOLFOX6 were defined as total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) group. Local resection was recommended for patients who were near-cCR according to modified MSKCC criteria 8-33 weeks after the end of radiotherapy. Patients with a near-cCR, who were judged as ycN0 according to PET-CT and MRI and were ypT0 after local excision, could enter the W&W strategy. Patients with pathologic stage more advanced than ypT1, and those with positive resection margin, or lymphovascular invasion were recommended for salvage radical surgery after local excision. The ypT1 patients with a negative resection margin and without lymphovascular invasion might receive the W&W management carefully if they refused radicalsurgery to sacrifice the sphincter for low rectal cancer.Results:Of 32 patients, 14 were males and 18 were females with the average age of 59 years old. Twenty-three patients underwent consolidation nCRT, and 9 received TNT. The first evaluation after treatments showed 19 cases with cCR and 13 with near-cCR. Twenty-nine patients received local excision while 3 patients with undetectable lesions received W&W policy. Four cases (12.5%) underwent salvage radical surgery with abdominoperineal resection. After local excision, 3 cases underwent salvage radical surgery immediately, and the final pathologic result was ypT3N0, ypT2N0, and ypT2N0 respectively, of whom 2 cases were in the group of consolidation CRT and 1 was in the TNT group. Of these 3 cases, 1 case with an initial cT3 stage showed a pathologic stage of ypT1 and a negative circumferential resection margin after consolidation nCRT and local excision, however, the final pathologic stage was ypT3 with fragmented tumor deposits in the mesorectum after the salvage radical surgery. Meanwhile 1 patient in the TNT group receiving W&W suffered from intraluminal regrowth after 7.4 months follow-up and underwent salvage abdominoperineal resection. One patient in the consolidation nCRT group died of stroke 42.5 months after local resection. Another patient in the TNT group had cerebral metastasis 10 months after the W&W policy, but no local recurrence was found in the pelvic cavity, then received resection of the metastatic tumors. The average follow-up for all the patients was 23 (5-51) months. The cumulative local regrowth rate was 5.0%. The overall survival rate was 85.7%, and the sphincter-preservation rate was increased from 25.0% (28/32) in the original plan to 87.5% (28/32) actually. The 3-year disease-free survival rate was 89.7%. The 3-year organ-preserving survival rate was 85.7%, and the 3-year stoma-free survival rate was 82.5%. At present, 31 patients still survived.Conclusions:After nCRT with consolidation chemotherapy or TNT for low rectal cancer, patients with cCR, ycN0 according to PET-CT and MRI, and ypT0 after local excision, can consider the W&W strategy. Strict patient selection with a near-cCR for local resection and sphincter-preserving strategy can reduce the local regrowth of cancer, and the short-term outcomes are satisfactory.

Objective:To investigate the feasibility and safety of sphincter-preserving surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) with consolidation chemotherapy in the interval period or total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) for low rectal cancer.Methods:A descriptive case series study was carried out. Clinical data of patients with locally advanced low rectal cancer (LALRC) who achieved complete clinical response (cCR) or nearly cCR (near-cCR) after nCRT at the Department of Colorectal Surgery of Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from May 2015 to February 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Case inclusion criteria: (1) Low rectal adenocarcinoma within 6 cm from the anal verge. (2) After nCRT, tumor presented markedly regression as mucosal nodule or abnormalities, superficial ulcer, scar or a mucosal erythema (< 2 cm); no regional lymph node metastasis or distant metastasis was found in rectal ultrasonography, pelvic MRI and PET-CT; MRI showed obvious fibrosis in the original tumor site; and post-treatment CEA was normal. (3) The patient and the family members adhered to receive the transanal full-thickness local excision with informed consent. (4) When the residual lesions were difficult to detect after nCRT, patients received the watch and wait (W&W) strategy. Exclusion criteria: (1) Before nCRT, pathological results showed poorly differentiated or signet-ring cell carcinoma; lateral lymph node metastasis was suspected. (2) When the residual lesion size was more than 3 cm after nCRT, it was difficult to perform local excision. The consolidation nCRT group received 3-4 cycles of CAPOX regimen (oxaliplatin and capecitabine) or six cycles of mFOLFOX6 (oxaliplatin, leucovorin, and 5-fluorouracil) combined with the long-course radiotherapy (intensity-modulated radiation therapy with a total dose of 50.4Gy). Patients with concurrent chemotherapy more than or equal to five cycles of CAPOX or eight cycles of mFOLFOX6 were defined as total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) group. Local resection was recommended for patients who were near-cCR according to modified MSKCC criteria 8-33 weeks after the end of radiotherapy. Patients with a near-cCR, who were judged as ycN0 according to PET-CT and MRI and were ypT0 after local excision, could enter the W&W strategy. Patients with pathologic stage more advanced than ypT1, and those with positive resection margin, or lymphovascular invasion were recommended for salvage radical surgery after local excision. The ypT1 patients with a negative resection margin and without lymphovascular invasion might receive the W&W management carefully if they refused radicalsurgery to sacrifice the sphincter for low rectal cancer.Results:Of 32 patients, 14 were males and 18 were females with the average age of 59 years old. Twenty-three patients underwent consolidation nCRT, and 9 received TNT. The first evaluation after treatments showed 19 cases with cCR and 13 with near-cCR. Twenty-nine patients received local excision while 3 patients with undetectable lesions received W&W policy. Four cases (12.5%) underwent salvage radical surgery with abdominoperineal resection. After local excision, 3 cases underwent salvage radical surgery immediately, and the final pathologic result was ypT3N0, ypT2N0, and ypT2N0 respectively, of whom 2 cases were in the group of consolidation CRT and 1 was in the TNT group. Of these 3 cases, 1 case with an initial cT3 stage showed a pathologic stage of ypT1 and a negative circumferential resection margin after consolidation nCRT and local excision, however, the final pathologic stage was ypT3 with fragmented tumor deposits in the mesorectum after the salvage radical surgery. Meanwhile 1 patient in the TNT group receiving W&W suffered from intraluminal regrowth after 7.4 months follow-up and underwent salvage abdominoperineal resection. One patient in the consolidation nCRT group died of stroke 42.5 months after local resection. Another patient in the TNT group had cerebral metastasis 10 months after the W&W policy, but no local recurrence was found in the pelvic cavity, then received resection of the metastatic tumors. The average follow-up for all the patients was 23 (5-51) months. The cumulative local regrowth rate was 5.0%. The overall survival rate was 85.7%, and the sphincter-preservation rate was increased from 25.0% (28/32) in the original plan to 87.5% (28/32) actually. The 3-year disease-free survival rate was 89.7%. The 3-year organ-preserving survival rate was 85.7%, and the 3-year stoma-free survival rate was 82.5%. At present, 31 patients still survived.Conclusions:After nCRT with consolidation chemotherapy or TNT for low rectal cancer, patients with cCR, ycN0 according to PET-CT and MRI, and ypT0 after local excision, can consider the W&W strategy. Strict patient selection with a near-cCR for local resection and sphincter-preserving strategy can reduce the local regrowth of cancer, and the short-term outcomes are satisfactory.

Objective: To screen out the potential gene biomarkers to predict responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer and to explore the main downstream pathways of resistance. Methods: The gene expression profiles (GSE35452) of locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy from 46 specimens (24 responders, TRG 0/1, and 22 non-responders, TRG 2/3) were downloaded from the GEO database. The differentially expressed genes were identified to screen out the potential biomarkers by use of the GCBI platform. GO and KEGG pathways enrichment analysis were performed to integrate enrichment results of differentially expressed genes. Signal-signal interaction network was constructed and analyzed to screen out potential main downstream pathways. Results: A total of 1079 differentially expressed genes were screened, including 657 up-regulated and 422 down-regulated ones. Among these genes, REG4 had the maximum fold change value of -6.029 491. In GO term, these differentially expressed genes were mainly enriched in molecule metabolic process, cell cycle, DNA-dependent transcription, signal transduction and apoptotic process. The KEGG pathways enrichment analysis showed that the differentially expressed genes were enriched in 65 KEGG pathways, including metabolic pathways, cell cycle and metabolism pathways. Signal-signal interaction network analysis showed that MAPK signaling pathway and cell cycle pathway might play a determinant role in the development of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy resistance. Further analysis showed that CDKN1B, CDKN2A, RBL1, TFDP1, CCND2, CCNE2, CDC6 and CDK6 in cell cycle might induce chemoradiotherapy resistance by blocking G1/S phase cell cycle arrest, decreasing the apoptosis of tumor cells and increasing S phase ratio of chemoradiotherapy resistance. Conclusion G1/S phase cell cycle arrest blocking plays an important role in the development of chemoradiotherapy resistance in patients with rectal cancer. Moreover, the key genes, such as REG4, may be useful in predicting responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the efficacy of radiotherapy combined with surgery for locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Clinical data of patients with locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (T3-4 and/or N+) diagnosed by postoperative pathology from 1992 to 2013 were retrieved from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients with local excision only, tumor biopsy or combined organ excision and incomplete follow-up information were excluded. All the enrolled patients were divided into three groups according to different treatments, including surgery alone (SA) group, preoperative radiotherapy combined with surgery (RT+S) group and surgery combined with postoperative radiotherapy (S+RT) group. The extracted data included basic data of patients and tumor, treatment status, and follow-up results. The χ² test was used to compare the count data. Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve and calculate the survival rate. The survival was analyzed and compared by Log-rank test. The R language 2.8.1 was used to match the patients as 1:1 pairing through the propensity score matching (PSM). The matching variables included gender, age at diagnosis, year at diagnosis, ethnicity, degree of tissue differentiation, TNM stage, depth of invasion, making the baseline data of subgroups comparable. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis of prognostic factors. RESULTS: A total of 2 149 patients with locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma were enrolled in the study, including 1 255 males (58.4%) and 894 females (41.6%). There were 706 patients (32.9%) in the SA group, 772 patients (35.9%) in the RT+S group and 671 patients (31.2%) in the S+RT group. In SA, RT+S and S+RT groups, the median overall survival time was 39, 85, and 74 months respectively; the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 38.7%, 56.5%, and 55.2% respectively; the median cancer-specific survival (CSS) time was 86, 127, and 111 months respectively, and the 5-year CSS rate was 53.7%, 62.2% and 60.7% respectively. In comparison among the 3 groups, the 5-year OS rate and CSS rate in the SA group were significantly lower than those in the RT+S group and S+RT group (all P<0.001); the 5-year OS rate and CSS rate between RT+S group and S+RT group were not significantly different (P=0.166 and 0.392,respectively). After the baseline data of subgroups were corrected through PSM, the 5-year OS rate and CSS rate in the SA group (n=375) were significantly lower than those in the RT+S group (n=375)(OS:40.1% vs. 54.5%, P<0.001; CSS:54.3% vs. 63.3%, P=0.023). The 5-year OS rate and CSS rate in the SA group (n=403) were also lower than those in the S+RT group (n=403) (OS:37.4% vs. 54.7%,P<0.001;CSS:51.6% vs. 61.0%,P=0.031). The 5-year OS rate and CSS rate between RT+S group (n=363) and S+RT group (n=363) were not significantly different (OS:51.7% vs. 55.5%, P=0.789; CSS:57.7% vs. 60.5%, P=0.484). Cox multivariate analysis showed that radiotherapy (HR=0.845, 95%CI: 0.790 to 0.903, P=0.001) was an independent prognostic factor for OS of locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma; radiotherapy (HR=0.907, 95% CI: 0.835 to 0.985, P=0.021) was also an independent prognostic factor affecting CSS in patients with locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSION As compared with surgery alone, surgery combined with preoperative or postoperative radiotherapy is beneficial to the long-term survival of patients with locally advanced rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma.
Adenocarcinoma, Mucinous ; pathology ; radiotherapy ; surgery ; therapy ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Neoplasm Staging ; Proctectomy ; Prognosis ; Radiotherapy, Adjuvant ; Rectal Neoplasms ; pathology ; radiotherapy ; surgery ; therapy ; Retrospective Studies ; SEER Program ; Survival Analysis ; Treatment Outcome

Objective To screen out the potential gene biomarkers to predict responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer and to explore the main downstream pathways of resistance. Methods The gene expression profiles (GSE35452) of locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy from 46 specimens (24 responders, TRG 0/1, and 22 non?responders, TRG 2/3) were downloaded from the GEO database. The differentially expressed genes were identified to screen out the potential biomarkers by use of the GCBI platform. GO and KEGG pathways enrichment analysis were performed to integrate enrichment results of differentially expressed genes. Signal?signal interaction network was constructed and analyzed to screen out potential main downstream pathways. Results A total of 1079 differentially expressed genes were screened, including 657 up?regulated and 422 down?regulated ones. Among these genes, REG4 had the maximum fold change value of –6.029 491. In GO term, these differentially expressed genes were mainly enriched in molecule metabolic process, cell cycle, DNA?dependent transcription, signal transduction and apoptotic process. The KEGG pathways enrichment analysis showed that the differentially expressed genes were enriched in 65 KEGG pathways, including metabolic pathways, cell cycle and metabolism pathways. Signal?signal interaction network analysis showed that MAPK signaling pathway and cell cycle pathway might play a determinant role in the development of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy resistance. Further analysis showed that CDKN1B, CDKN2A, RBL1, TFDP1, CCND2, CCNE2, CDC6 and CDK6 in cell cycle might induce chemoradiotherapy resistance by blocking G1/S phase cell cycle arrest, decreasing the apoptosis of tumor cells and increasing S phase ratio of chemoradiotherapy resistance. Conclusion G1/S phase cell cycle arrest blocking plays an important role in the development of chemoradiotherapy resistance in patients with rectal cancer. Moreover, the key genes, such as REG4, may be useful in predicting responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

Objective To screen out the potential gene biomarkers to predict responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer and to explore the main downstream pathways of resistance. Methods The gene expression profiles (GSE35452) of locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy from 46 specimens (24 responders, TRG 0/1, and 22 non?responders, TRG 2/3) were downloaded from the GEO database. The differentially expressed genes were identified to screen out the potential biomarkers by use of the GCBI platform. GO and KEGG pathways enrichment analysis were performed to integrate enrichment results of differentially expressed genes. Signal?signal interaction network was constructed and analyzed to screen out potential main downstream pathways. Results A total of 1079 differentially expressed genes were screened, including 657 up?regulated and 422 down?regulated ones. Among these genes, REG4 had the maximum fold change value of –6.029 491. In GO term, these differentially expressed genes were mainly enriched in molecule metabolic process, cell cycle, DNA?dependent transcription, signal transduction and apoptotic process. The KEGG pathways enrichment analysis showed that the differentially expressed genes were enriched in 65 KEGG pathways, including metabolic pathways, cell cycle and metabolism pathways. Signal?signal interaction network analysis showed that MAPK signaling pathway and cell cycle pathway might play a determinant role in the development of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy resistance. Further analysis showed that CDKN1B, CDKN2A, RBL1, TFDP1, CCND2, CCNE2, CDC6 and CDK6 in cell cycle might induce chemoradiotherapy resistance by blocking G1/S phase cell cycle arrest, decreasing the apoptosis of tumor cells and increasing S phase ratio of chemoradiotherapy resistance. Conclusion G1/S phase cell cycle arrest blocking plays an important role in the development of chemoradiotherapy resistance in patients with rectal cancer. Moreover, the key genes, such as REG4, may be useful in predicting responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

Objective To screen out the potential gene to predict regional lymph node metastasis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and develop a 6-gene model using an artificial neural network (ANN).Methods The gene expression profiles (GSE46862) of locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy from 64 specimens (21 with ypN-and 43 with ypN+) were downloaded from the gene expression omnibus (GEO) database.The differentially expressed genes were identified to screen out the potential biomarkers through the Gene-Cloud of Biotechnology Information (GCBI) platform.The top 6 genes were screened out for building model.An ANN model was trained and validated using the SPSS Modeler software.The study samples were allocated randomly into the training sample group and testing sample group with a 7∶3 ratio.The training samples and testing samples were respectively used for building an ANN model and independent back-substitution test.Observation indicators:(1) screening results of differentially expressed genes;(2) analysis results of ANN model.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive abilities of ANN and each biomarker.Results (1) Screening results of differentially expressed genes:A total of 50 genes were screened.Six top genes included IL6,AKR1B1,AREG,SELE,ROBO1 and CD274.(2) Analysis results of ANN model:Six top genes were selected to construct a three-layer ANN model with a 7-5-2 structure.The IL6 made the greatest effect on the ANN model,followed by ROBO1,AKR1B1,AREG,CD274 and SELE.The AUC was 0.929.The sensitivity and specificity of ANN model were 96.7％ and 85.7％,and accuracy of training samples was 93.2％.In the independent back-substitution test,sensitivity and specificity were 92.3％ and 85.7％,and accuracy of testing samples was 90.0％.Conclusion The prediction ANN model based on multiple molecular markers (IL6,ROBO1,AKR1B1,AREG,CD274 and SELE) for regional lymph node metastases in LARC patients after CRT would be beneficial in selecting potential candidates for rectum-preserving surgery following CRT for LARC.

OBJECTIVETo establish a nomogram model to predict the peritoneal metastasis in colon cancer patients without distant metastasis by preoperative imaging examination.

METHODSClinicopathological data of colon cancer patients without distant metastasis by preoperative imaging examination who underwent surgery in our department between January 2000 and December 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. Predictors of peritoneal carcinomatosis were analyzed by univariate and Logistic multivariate analyses. Base on the independent predictors by multivariable analysis results, a nomogram model was formulated with further use of R software. The total score was calculated by the addition of each predictor score, indicating the corresponding risk of peritoneal metastasis. The score was greater in the nomogram, and the risk was higher in peritoneal implantation metastasis. A receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve was then constructed to evaluate the predictive abilities of the various preoperative factors and nomogram.

RESULTSA total of 1 417 patients were defined as above and enrolled in the study. The median age was (60.5±13.3) years, 835 cases (58.9%) were male, and 132 cases (9.3%, 132/1417) were diagnosed with synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis during operation. Univariate analysis showed that peritoneal metastasis was associated with age, incidence of abdominal pain, incidence of mucous bloody stool, CEA level, traversible rate, tumor diameter, ratio of infiltrating type cancer, differentiation, histological type, cT staging and cN staging (all P<0.05). Logistic multivariate analysis revealed that younger age (OR:0.974, 95%CI: 0.958 to 0.990, P=0.001), later clinical T stage (OR: 2.949, 95%CI: 1.588 to 5.476, P=0.001), lesion not traversible(OR: 0.519, 95%CI: 0.314 to 0.858, P=0.011), infiltrative gross type (OR: 1.812, 95%CI: 1.099 to 2.987, P=0.020), larger tumor (OR: 1.044, 95%CI: 0.998 to 1.093, P=0.061), higher preoperative serum CEA level(OR:1.004,95%CI: 1.001 to 1.007, P=0.007) and histopathologic type of mucinous or signet ring cell adenocarcinoma (OR:1.642, 95%CI: 1.009 to 2.673, P=0.046) were independent risk factors. The nomogram model was further established based on above 7 independent risk factors, whose total score was 350 and area under the ROC curve was 0.753(P=0.000).

CONCLUSIONThe nomogram model can be helpful to screen the colon cancer patients with high risk of peritoneal metastasis and to avoid unnecessary laparotomy for colon cancer patients without distant metastasis by preoperative imaging examination.

OBJECTIVETo establish a nomogram to predict long-term survival in non-metastatic colorectal cancer patients.

METHODSA retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery in the Department of Colorectal Surgery of Affiliated Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University between January 2000 and December 2014. Univariate and multivariate analyses on disease-free survival (DFS) were performed using the Cox proportional regression model. Based on the multivariate analysis results, a prognostic nomogram was formulated to predict the probability for DFS. Concordance index was applied in predictive evaluation of the nomogram and calibration curves were drawn to test the nomogram's prediction and actual observation of the 5-year DFS rate. The predictive ability of nomogram was compared with AJCC-7 staging system.

RESULTSA total of 2 641 patients were identified. The median age was 59.3 years old, and 60.3% of cases were men. The number of patients with TNM stage 0, I(, II( and III( was 96, 505, 923 and 1043, respectively. The most common tumor site was the rectum, accounting for 43.2%. A total of 413 (15.6%) patients underwent neoadjuvant treatment. The most common gross type of tumor was ulcerative type, accounting for 79.5%. The 3- and 5-year DFS rate was 85.8% and 79.8%, respectively. Based on the Cox proportional regression model, the following six factors were independently associated with reduced DFS rate and were selected for the nomogram: older age, higher pathologic T stage, higher pathologic N stage, higher preoperative serum CEA level, infiltrative gross type and perineural invasion. The results of the nomogram showed that the score of T0, T1, T2, T3 and T4 stage was 0, 2.2, 3.9, 4.1 and 6, respectively, and the score of N0, N1 and N2 was 0, 3.8 and 9.3, respectively. For gross type, the score of expanding type, ulcerative type and infiltrative type was 6, 9 and 10, respectively. The score of perineural invasion was 5.2. Higher scores were added to older age and higher CEA level. The total scores were calculated by taking the sum of the points from all predictors. Higher total score was associated with poor DFS. The prognostic nomogram differentiated well and showed a concordance index of 0.718, which was better than AJCC-7 staging system (concordance index=0.683). Also, the calibration of nomogram predictions was good.

CONCLUSIONSA nomogram based on 6 independently prognostic factors to predict long-term survival in non-metastatic colorectal cancer patients is established successfully. The nomogram can be conveniently used to facilitate the accurate individualized prediction of DFS rates in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer.