Objective Comparing the performance of the two nonparametric Bayesian methods for benchmark dose estimating under different dose response data,then comparing them with traditional parametric methods.Methods Introduce the basic principle of the nonparametric Bayesian method based on weighted process and stochastic process separately,then compared the estimations through simulate study and instance analysis.Results The simulate study shows that the posterior estimates were reasonably close to the target true BMD value for the two nonparametric methods,and NBP2 is more desirable compared to NPB1.The nine examples indicate that the BMD estimates from the nonparametric approaches generally fall into or very near the interval of those obtained from BMDS and nonparametric approaches tend to produce lower BMDLs than the parametric modeling approaches.Conclusion The posterior estimates were reasonably close to the target true BMD value for the two nonparametric methods,especially when standard parametric models fail to fit to the data adequately.The NPB2 method is slightly bet-ter than the NPB1 method in the aspect of estimation result and the software operation speed.

Objective To examine the prevalence,disease spectrum of non-communicable chronic diseases and its risk factors among the elderly residents in Xiamen.Methods The elderly residents aged 60 or over in Xiamen were selected by stratified randomly sampling to analyze the spectrum of chronic disease.The data were analyzed by x2 test,trend x2 test and unconditional logistic regression.Results A total of 14292 elderly were investigated.The prevalence of chronic diseases was 63.3 ％.With the age increasing,the prevalence was also increased,the female residents had a higher prevalence compared with male,and the city was higher than the rural area(P ＜0.001).While suffering from two or more chronic diseases accounted for 31.9 ％.The top 5 of the most prevalent chronic diseases were osteoarthritis (30.5 ％),hypertension (30.1％),diabetes mellitus (9.7 ％),heart disease (7.9 ％),and gastrointestinal disease (7.6％).Sex,age,residence,marital status,loneliness,self-rated health are the influencing factors of the elderly in Xiamen.Conclusion More attention should be paid to the impact of osteoarthritis,hypertension,diabetes,heart disease and gastrointestinal gallbladder disease on the health of the elderly,especially osteoarthritis,and targeted to multiple chronic diseases comprehensive prevention and control and management.

Objective The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is an important descriptive indicator for competing risk data in medical follow-up study.However,the upper and lower limits of the classic confidence interval (CI) of CIF may be exclusive the boundaries.In this paper,the CI estimators based on five different transformations and their performances are studied.Methods The CIs of CIF are constructed based on the linear (classical),log,log (-log),arcsine and logit transformation,respectively.Through the simulation study,the average deviations of the false coverage probabilities for all CIs are comprehensively investigated by the ANOVA technology.Results The simulation results show that the CIs based on linear and arcsine transformation have a large positive deviation.Log transformation is prone to fluctuations and has a minimum negative deviation,only log (-log) transformation is closest to the expected constant 0,and most robust and reliable.Conclusion Combined with the simulation results and example,CIs base on linear and log transformation are easy to have wide range and unstable performance,and can not overcome the bounds being negative or above 1;the arcsine and logit is slightly fluctuated,but their performances are relatively balanced;only performance of log(-log) is the most robust and reliable.

Objective To construct a new index(abbreviate FQ statistic) for testing the balance of covariates among 3 groups;to compare the power of hypothesis testing,standardized difference and FQ statistics to test the balance of covariates among 3 groups.Methods Using pooled variance to build FQ Statistic;Calculating propensity score for each individual by using ordinal logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression;Comparing the power of hypothesis testing,standardized difference and FQ statistics to test the balance of covariates among 3 groups by Monte Carlo simulation.Results The distribution of a covariate can be considered balanced among the 3 groups if FQ statisticsis less than 0.2.The power of hypothesis test is affected by sample size but FQ statistics and standardized difference.The power of FQ statistics and standardized difference to test the balance of covariates among 3 groups are higher than hypothesis testing,and both highly consistent.Conclusion FQ statistics and standardized differences are valid methods to test the balance of covariates among 3 groups.With more convenient calculating step than standardized difference,FQ statistic has more advantages in applications.

Objective To analyze the direct economic burden and average hospitalization cost of lung cancer in China from 2011 to 2015, to provide data support for the prevention and control of lung cancer and health insurance policies. Methods By using inpatient medical record home page dataset to estimate the total hospital expenses of lung cancer. Using the outpatient hospitalization cost ratio of cancer specialized hospitals to estimate the overall medical expenses of lung cancer. Based on the inpatient medical record home page dataset, and analyzed the average hospitalization cost of lung cancer. Results The total cost of lung cancer in China reached 24.31 billion yuan in 2015, accounting for about 0.6％ of the total health expenses; from 2011 to 2015, lung cancer medical costs have concentrated in the grade 3 general hospitals; people over 60 consumed the major medical costs of lung cancer and the proportion was still rising year by year; the average hospitalization cost of lung cancer was reduced in 2015; drug proportion in various hospitals declined steadily from 2011 to 2015; the average hospitalization cost was the highest in the 18 -40 age group. Conclusion The effect of health care reform was gradually revealed, and the increase of medical expenses was controlled within the tolerable range. Notably, we should accelerate the improvement of the price compensation mechanism, and at the same time, we should aim to improve the level of catastrophic health care for the elderly.

Objective To explore the application of auto regressive time varying models in network building of time se-ries microarray data.Methods We used actual data to carry out a preliminary discussion about the properties of auto regressive time varying models.Results Analysis results of actual data suggested that auto regressive time varying models can perform well whether the number of timepoint is large or small,and it can recognize the network’s dynamic variation rule.Conclusion Auto regressive time varying models is applicable to network building of time series microarray data.

Objective To analyze the influence of NRCMS polices evolutionon residents’utilizationof outpatient serv-ices.Methods Based on the same individual balance panel data in two years of three counties in Ji＇nan city,we build panel dat-amodel and conductrandom effects of binary choice panel data model,random effects Poisson regression model,difference in differences(DID)model to analyze the influence.Results Our study shows that the four-week consultation rate in 2011 in-creased by 4. 1% compared to 2008.Age,self-ratedhealthstatus,suffering from chronic diseases or not,the distance to the nearest medical institution have an influence on outpatient service utilization.The new rural cooperative medical outpatient reimburse-ment policy has an effect on thefour-week consultation rate of middle-income residents and high-income residents.The NCMS policy tends to benefit middle and high-income groups.Conclusion we should increase NCMS outpatient compensation level of low-income residents appropriately.

Objective　This paper presents formula for determining the sample size required in case-control study to estimate vaccine efficacy VE with adjusting the precision of confidence interval.Methods　Formula to calculate sample size is derived from the principle of relative width of the confidence interval.Results　Prespecified relative width may regulate and control the precision of confidence interval and may reflects magnitude of the sample size.Conclusion　Sample size calculated by formula will assure that the investigator understand accurately the degree of point estimates of VE close to the true value of VE in the population.

Objective Implement random sample from a simulation population,to evaluate the The impact of samplesize and sample-process on several usual importance evaluate methods,observe the stability of those methods.Methods This study introduced existed importance methods,using PROC SURVEYSELECT procedure to sample a fixed population for 1000 times,generating 1000 same size sample,to evaluate the stability of relative importance methods.We sampled the population to generate datasets with different sample size to observe impact of sample-size on those methods.Results The sum of squared correlation coefficients' estimator is bigger than model R-square,squared standardized regression coefficients' sum is smaller.In contrary,sum of the Product Measure,Relative Weight and Dominance Analysis are extremely close to model R-square.When the sample size small than 1000,the estimator have obviously variation,but the variation decreased when the sample size rise up.Conclusion The dominance analysis has best stability,also has the best match of model R2 in those methods.

Objective To calculate the social economic burden of mental illness,and to analyze the economic impact of different patients with mental illness in Shandong Province.Methods Direct method was used to calculate the direct economic burden,and human capital method was employed to estimate the indirect economic burden.Results The social economic burden increased from 10.076 billion in 2005 to 31.277 billion in 2013,and the proportion of the social economic burden accounting for GDP of Shandong province was between 0.5 ％ ～ 0.7％.The economic burden caused by women,18-39 years old patients,rural patients and mood disorders was higher than that of men,more than 55 years-old patients,urban patients and other diagnoses,respectively.Conclusions The economic burden brought by mental illness was heavy and increasing during 2005-2013.The economic burden caused by different people was heterogeneous.