Objective To compare the accuracy of the seasonal time series decomposition method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction of incidence of tuberculosis(TB) in order to facilitate early-warning.Methods The seasonal decomposition model and ARIMA model were constructed by SPSS20.0 software based on time series of monthly TB incidence between January 2005 and December 2014 in Urumqi,China.The obtained models were used to forecast the monthly incidence in 2015 and compared with the actual incidence respectively.Results Between 2005 and 2014,the incidence of TB was higher during March,April and May in Urumqi.A linear fitting model and a cubic curve fitting model were constructed by the time series seasonal decomposition method.The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 18.75% and 92.25%,respectively.The predicted values of the linear model were lower than actual values and the predicted values of the cubic curve model were higher than actual values.An ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,0)12 fitting model was established by ARIMA method.The MAPE of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 9.46% and there were no significant differences between the predicted and actual values.Conclusion The ARIMA method is better than the seasonal decomposition method for predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Urumqi.

AIM:To observe the alterations in cognition of growing rats exposed to chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH) and to explore its underlying mechanisms. METHODS:Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats (3-week-old～4-week-old and 80 g to 100 g),which had been trained to complete the 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze,were randomly divided into 4 groups:2-weeek-CIH group (2IH),4-week-CIH group (4IH),-week -control group (2C) and 4-weeek-control group (4C). The intermittent hypoxia model was induced by putting the animals in an intermittent hypoxia cabin. When intermittent hypoxia was terminated,spatial memory of these growing rats was tested by 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze task,then,one rat in each group was randomly selected for ultrastructural observation. The hippocampus and prefrontal cortexes of the rats were collected for analyzing the mRNA and protein expression of CREB by RT-PCR and Western blotting,respectively. RESULTS:(1) In the 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze task,the results indicated that the rats in the 4 groups displayed significant difference in their performance assessed by three measuremens:the reference memory error,the working memory error and total memory error (P 0. 05,respectively). CONCLUSION:Exposure to experimentally-induced IH in growing rats is associated with time related spatial memory impairment. Chronic intermittent hypoxia leads to the disorders of neuron ultra-structure in memory related brain regions. It also inhabits the CREB transduction,expression and CREB phosphorylation,decreases the synthesis of the memory related protein. These factors maybe contribute to learningmemory impairment of growing rats exposed to chronic intermittent hypoxia.

Objective:To investigate the potentially inappropriate medication(PIM)among elderly patients with chronic diseases in Shanghai communities and related influence factors.Method:Six community Health service Centers were choosen using stratified sampling. Total 968 elderly patients with chronic diseases who visited to the outpatient clinic of Shanghai Community Health Service Centers from July to August 2018 were included in the study. The PIM was investigated according to the 2015 Beers criteria. The χ 2 test and multivariate logistic regression model were used to analyze factors related to the PIM. Results:The survey showed that 317 elderly patients had PIM with 412 person-doses. In 134 person-doses, the PIM was unrelated to the disease; in 18 person-doses, PIM was caused by interaction of drug with disease/symptoms; in 259 person-doses PIM was related to the drugs that should be cautiously used for elderly; only in 1 person-dose the PIM was caused by the interaction between drugs. The drugs with the highest proportion of PIM were diuretics, benzodiazepines and aspirin. There were significant differences in age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers between elderly patients with PIM and those without PIM (χ 2=42.28, 35.51, 46.47, 38.46; all P<0.05). The main PIM-related factors were age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers. Conclusion:The study shows that the prevalence of PIM among elderly chronic diseases patients in Shanghai communities is relatively high, which is associated with the age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers.

Objective:To understand the regular leisure-time physical activity status of residents aged ≥60 years in China and to explore the potential influencing factors.Methods:National Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance were conducted in 298 counties (districts) in China in 2018, which covered 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities), using a multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method to select 194 779 permanent residents aged ≥18 years, using a questionnaire containing the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. A face-to-face survey to obtain demographic information about the survey respondents, the frequency of moderate and vigorous-intensity leisure-time physical activity in their spare time and time, and other information related to chronic diseases and risk factors. Daily temperatures of 298 monitored counties (districts) in 2018 were obtained by inversion of satellite remote sensing data information such as MODIS, OMI, and AIRS, and the number of parks in 2017 was obtained by me. In this study, 68 379 residents aged ≥60 years who completed the survey and had complete information on leisure-time physical activity-related variables, temperature, and parks were used as survey respondents, and the prevalence of regular leisure-time physical activity and average weekly exercise time was calculated by gender in groups of age, urban and rural areas, education level, and geography. Multi-factor logistic regression models were used to analyze the individual and environmental influences on the regular exercise rate. All the results were weighted according to a complex sampling scheme.Results:The prevalence of regular leisure-time physical activity of residents aged ≥60 years in China in 2018 was 13.1% (95% CI: 12.1%-14.0%). The figures were slightly higher for men [13.6% (95% CI: 12.6%-14.7%)] than for women [12.5% (95% CI: 11.5%-13.5%)]; urban [17.5% (95% CI: 15.9%-19.1%)] were significantly higher than those in rural areas [9.6% (95% CI: 8.8%-10.4%)]; the prevalence of regular leisure-time physical activity in East China [15.1% (95% CI: 13.3%-16.9%)] was higher than those in other regions; older residents in counties (districts) with ≥28 parks [17.3% (95% CI: 15.3%-19.2%)] the highest. The average weekly exercise time of elderly residents in China was 68.3 (95% CI: 63.5-73.2) minutes; among them, men [74.3 (95% CI: 68.1-80.5) minutes] was higher than women [62.5 (95% CI: 57.8-67.2) minutes]; urban [89.8 (95% CI: 82.0-97.7) minutes] were higher than rural [51.4 (95% CI: 46.8-56.1) minutes]. The results of the multi-factorial logistic analysis showed that factors such as: living in rural areas, lower annual household income for literacy, poorer self-rated health status, and lack of parks in the area of residence were associated with a lower prevalence of regular leisure-time physical activity among elderly residents. Conclusions:The prevalence of regular leisure-time physical activity among elderly residents in China is still at a low level, and exercise time needs to be improved. We should increase the publicity of "national fitness", pay attention to the disadvantaged elderly groups and provide more suitable activity places to encourage more elderly residents to participate in leisure-time physical activity.

Objective:To evaluate the role of sonic hedgehog (Shh)/glioma-associated oncogene homolog 1 (Gli1) signaling pathway in sleep deprivation-induced cognitive impairment in young mice.Methods:Forty-eight SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 4 weeks, weighing 14-16 g, were divided into 3 groups ( n=16 each) by the random number table method: control group (C group), sleep deprivation group (SD group) and Shh agonist SAG group (SD+ SAG group). Multi-platform water environment method was used to prepare the sleep deprivation model in mice, and the sleep deprivation was 20 h a day for 10 consecutive days.In SD+ SAG group, SAG 10 mg/kg was intraperitoneally injected at 5 min before each sleep deprivation, while the equal volume of normal saline was intraperitoneally injected in group C and group SD.The mice underwent novel object recognition and Y-maze tests at 24 h after development of the model.Mice were sacrificed after the behavioral testing, and the hippocampi were isolated for determination of the density of dendritic spines in hippocampal CA1 region (by Golgi staining), expression of Gli1 and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in hippocampal tissues (by Western blot), and expression of Gli1 and BDNF mRNA in hippocampal tissues (by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction). Results:Compared with group C, the preference index in novel object recognition and Y-maze tests and density of dendritic spines in CA1 region were significantly decreased, and the expression of Gli1 and BDNF protein and mRNA in hippocampus was down-regulated in group SD ( P<0.05). Compared with group SD, the preference index in novel object recognition and Y-maze tests and density of dendritic spines in CA1 region were significantly increased, and the expression of Gli1 and BDNF protein and mRNA in hippocampus was up-regulated in group SD+ SAG ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Inhibition of Shh/Gli1 signaling pathway and reduction of plasticity of dendritic spines of hippocampal neurons are involved in sleep deprivation-induced cognitive impairment in young mice.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of sleep deprivation on the expression of sirtuin 6 (SIRT6) in the cerebellum of immature mice.Methods:Fifty SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 4 weeks, weighing 14-16 g, were divided into 2 groups ( n=25 each) using a random number table method: control group (Con group) and sleep deprivation group (SD group). The chronic sleep deprivation model was prepared by using the multi-platform water environment method, with 20 h of sleep deprivation per day for 10 consecutive days. After sleep deprivation, a balance beam experiment was performed to test the balance and coordination ability of mice. The mice were sacrificed after anesthesia and cerebellar lobular IV-VI (4-6 cb) tissues were taken for microscopic examination of the ultrastructure (with a transmission electron microscope) and for determination of the dendritic spine density of cerebellar 4-6cb Purkinje neurons (by Golgi staining), co-expression of SIRT6 and Calbindin D-28k (CbD-28k) and expression of glucose transporter Glut3 of cerebellar 4-6cb (by immunofluorescence staining). Results:Compared with group Con, the duration of passage through the balance beam was significantly prolonged, and the number of posterior foot slips was increased, the synaptic gap of cerebellar 4-6cb neurons was increased, the thickness of postsynaptic density was increased, the density of dendritic spines of Purkinje cells and the number of positive cells co-expressing SIRT6 and CbD-28k were decreased, and the expression of Glut3 was down-regulated in group SD ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The mechanism by which sleep deprivation decreases the abilities of balance and coordination is related to down-regulating SIRT6 expression in cerebellar Purkinje cells and decreasing neuronal glucose metabolism, thus damaging the synaptic plasticity of cerebellum in immature mice.

Intestinal fungal dysbiosis is closely associated with the development and progression of many diseases including tumors. The disruption of fungal communities is involved in tumorigenesis and progression through inducing aberrant host immune responses and the production of certain metabolites as well as promoting the establishment of interactions with bacteria. Fungal dysbiosis is a potential marker for early detection of digestive tumors and a factor influencing the efficacy of tumor therapy. Studying the association between gut fungi and digestive tumors may facilitate the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of digestive tumors.

Objective:To explore the bioaccessibility of the main metal components in welding fume welding fume in simulated lung fluid, and to evaluate the exposure level of each metal component in combination with the EPA inhalation exposure risk assessment model.Methods:In November 2022, the microscopic morphology characteristics of welding fumes were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, the bioaccessibility of each metal component in lung fluid simulated normal and lung inflammatory states was analyzed by in vitro simulation method, and the exposure level of each metal component was calculated in combination with the EPA inhalation exposure risk assessment model.Results:The main metal components in carbon dioxide gas shielded welding fumes were Fe, Mn, Zn, Ti, Al, Cu, Cr, Cd, Ni and As, and the bioaccessibility in simulated normal lung interstitial fluid was 0.82%-1.84%, 5.07%-9.41%, 4.52%-7.23%, 5.10%-8.67%, 20.48%-29.60%, 5.27%-9.83%, 4.80%-7.56%, 0.07%-1.08%, 6.48%-13.84% and 33.02%-42.81%. The bioaccessibility of the above metal components in the lung fluid under simulated lung inflammation was 14.79%-27.45%, 34.53%-46.11%, 35.31%-59.13%, 16.45%-22.51%, 60.78%-76.51%, 26.58%-34.12%, 15.32%-25.87%, 2.0%-5.7%, 34.77%-43.33% and 71.34%-88.36%, respectively. Compared with the simulated lurg interstitial fluid, the bioaccessibility of metal components in the lung fluid under the simulated inflammatory state was increased, and the difference was statistically significant ( P<0.05). The average daily exposure dose Mn in the two simulated lung fluids exceeded the inhalation reference limit (>50 times), and the average daily exposure dose Ti and Cr in the simulated lung inflammation exceeded the reference limit (>1.3 times) . Conclusion:Attention should be paid to the bioaccessibility characteristics of metal components in the exposure level and hazard assessment of welding fumes.

The fungal microbiota from self?retained soil and tongue coating of 18 patients with precancerous lesions of upper gastrointestinal (PLUG) were sequenced. The diversity of α, β in and the structure of the microbial community were analyzed, and the association of them was quantified by using the Spearman rank correlation method. The richness index (1.67±2.79) and the diversity index (0.25±0.10) of the fungal microbiota from tongue coating of PLUG patients were significantly lower than those from soil (4.00± 4.69; 0.99±0.18) (all P values<0.001). The relative abundance of 11 taxa from tongue coating of these PLUG patients was positively associated with that from soil (all P values<0.05).

The fungal microbiota from self?retained soil and tongue coating of 18 patients with precancerous lesions of upper gastrointestinal (PLUG) were sequenced. The diversity of α, β in and the structure of the microbial community were analyzed, and the association of them was quantified by using the Spearman rank correlation method. The richness index (1.67±2.79) and the diversity index (0.25±0.10) of the fungal microbiota from tongue coating of PLUG patients were significantly lower than those from soil (4.00± 4.69; 0.99±0.18) (all P values<0.001). The relative abundance of 11 taxa from tongue coating of these PLUG patients was positively associated with that from soil (all P values<0.05).