Objective To compare the accuracy of the seasonal time series decomposition method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction of incidence of tuberculosis(TB) in order to facilitate early-warning.Methods The seasonal decomposition model and ARIMA model were constructed by SPSS20.0 software based on time series of monthly TB incidence between January 2005 and December 2014 in Urumqi,China.The obtained models were used to forecast the monthly incidence in 2015 and compared with the actual incidence respectively.Results Between 2005 and 2014,the incidence of TB was higher during March,April and May in Urumqi.A linear fitting model and a cubic curve fitting model were constructed by the time series seasonal decomposition method.The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 18.75% and 92.25%,respectively.The predicted values of the linear model were lower than actual values and the predicted values of the cubic curve model were higher than actual values.An ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,0)12 fitting model was established by ARIMA method.The MAPE of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 9.46% and there were no significant differences between the predicted and actual values.Conclusion The ARIMA method is better than the seasonal decomposition method for predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Urumqi.

AIM:To observe the alterations in cognition of growing rats exposed to chronic intermittent hypoxia (CIH) and to explore its underlying mechanisms. METHODS:Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats (3-week-old～4-week-old and 80 g to 100 g),which had been trained to complete the 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze,were randomly divided into 4 groups:2-weeek-CIH group (2IH),4-week-CIH group (4IH),-week -control group (2C) and 4-weeek-control group (4C). The intermittent hypoxia model was induced by putting the animals in an intermittent hypoxia cabin. When intermittent hypoxia was terminated,spatial memory of these growing rats was tested by 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze task,then,one rat in each group was randomly selected for ultrastructural observation. The hippocampus and prefrontal cortexes of the rats were collected for analyzing the mRNA and protein expression of CREB by RT-PCR and Western blotting,respectively. RESULTS:(1) In the 8-arm (4-arm baited) radial maze task,the results indicated that the rats in the 4 groups displayed significant difference in their performance assessed by three measuremens:the reference memory error,the working memory error and total memory error (P 0. 05,respectively). CONCLUSION:Exposure to experimentally-induced IH in growing rats is associated with time related spatial memory impairment. Chronic intermittent hypoxia leads to the disorders of neuron ultra-structure in memory related brain regions. It also inhabits the CREB transduction,expression and CREB phosphorylation,decreases the synthesis of the memory related protein. These factors maybe contribute to learningmemory impairment of growing rats exposed to chronic intermittent hypoxia.

Objective:To investigate the potentially inappropriate medication(PIM)among elderly patients with chronic diseases in Shanghai communities and related influence factors.Method:Six community Health service Centers were choosen using stratified sampling. Total 968 elderly patients with chronic diseases who visited to the outpatient clinic of Shanghai Community Health Service Centers from July to August 2018 were included in the study. The PIM was investigated according to the 2015 Beers criteria. The χ 2 test and multivariate logistic regression model were used to analyze factors related to the PIM. Results:The survey showed that 317 elderly patients had PIM with 412 person-doses. In 134 person-doses, the PIM was unrelated to the disease; in 18 person-doses, PIM was caused by interaction of drug with disease/symptoms; in 259 person-doses PIM was related to the drugs that should be cautiously used for elderly; only in 1 person-dose the PIM was caused by the interaction between drugs. The drugs with the highest proportion of PIM were diuretics, benzodiazepines and aspirin. There were significant differences in age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers between elderly patients with PIM and those without PIM (χ 2=42.28, 35.51, 46.47, 38.46; all P<0.05). The main PIM-related factors were age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers. Conclusion:The study shows that the prevalence of PIM among elderly chronic diseases patients in Shanghai communities is relatively high, which is associated with the age, kinds of diseases, kinds of drugs and times of visiting community health service centers.

Objective:To evaluate the role of sonic hedgehog (Shh)/glioma-associated oncogene homolog 1 (Gli1) signaling pathway in sleep deprivation-induced cognitive impairment in young mice.Methods:Forty-eight SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 4 weeks, weighing 14-16 g, were divided into 3 groups ( n=16 each) by the random number table method: control group (C group), sleep deprivation group (SD group) and Shh agonist SAG group (SD+ SAG group). Multi-platform water environment method was used to prepare the sleep deprivation model in mice, and the sleep deprivation was 20 h a day for 10 consecutive days.In SD+ SAG group, SAG 10 mg/kg was intraperitoneally injected at 5 min before each sleep deprivation, while the equal volume of normal saline was intraperitoneally injected in group C and group SD.The mice underwent novel object recognition and Y-maze tests at 24 h after development of the model.Mice were sacrificed after the behavioral testing, and the hippocampi were isolated for determination of the density of dendritic spines in hippocampal CA1 region (by Golgi staining), expression of Gli1 and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in hippocampal tissues (by Western blot), and expression of Gli1 and BDNF mRNA in hippocampal tissues (by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction). Results:Compared with group C, the preference index in novel object recognition and Y-maze tests and density of dendritic spines in CA1 region were significantly decreased, and the expression of Gli1 and BDNF protein and mRNA in hippocampus was down-regulated in group SD ( P<0.05). Compared with group SD, the preference index in novel object recognition and Y-maze tests and density of dendritic spines in CA1 region were significantly increased, and the expression of Gli1 and BDNF protein and mRNA in hippocampus was up-regulated in group SD+ SAG ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Inhibition of Shh/Gli1 signaling pathway and reduction of plasticity of dendritic spines of hippocampal neurons are involved in sleep deprivation-induced cognitive impairment in young mice.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of sleep deprivation on the expression of sirtuin 6 (SIRT6) in the cerebellum of immature mice.Methods:Fifty SPF healthy male C57BL/6 mice, aged 4 weeks, weighing 14-16 g, were divided into 2 groups ( n=25 each) using a random number table method: control group (Con group) and sleep deprivation group (SD group). The chronic sleep deprivation model was prepared by using the multi-platform water environment method, with 20 h of sleep deprivation per day for 10 consecutive days. After sleep deprivation, a balance beam experiment was performed to test the balance and coordination ability of mice. The mice were sacrificed after anesthesia and cerebellar lobular IV-VI (4-6 cb) tissues were taken for microscopic examination of the ultrastructure (with a transmission electron microscope) and for determination of the dendritic spine density of cerebellar 4-6cb Purkinje neurons (by Golgi staining), co-expression of SIRT6 and Calbindin D-28k (CbD-28k) and expression of glucose transporter Glut3 of cerebellar 4-6cb (by immunofluorescence staining). Results:Compared with group Con, the duration of passage through the balance beam was significantly prolonged, and the number of posterior foot slips was increased, the synaptic gap of cerebellar 4-6cb neurons was increased, the thickness of postsynaptic density was increased, the density of dendritic spines of Purkinje cells and the number of positive cells co-expressing SIRT6 and CbD-28k were decreased, and the expression of Glut3 was down-regulated in group SD ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The mechanism by which sleep deprivation decreases the abilities of balance and coordination is related to down-regulating SIRT6 expression in cerebellar Purkinje cells and decreasing neuronal glucose metabolism, thus damaging the synaptic plasticity of cerebellum in immature mice.

Intestinal fungal dysbiosis is closely associated with the development and progression of many diseases including tumors. The disruption of fungal communities is involved in tumorigenesis and progression through inducing aberrant host immune responses and the production of certain metabolites as well as promoting the establishment of interactions with bacteria. Fungal dysbiosis is a potential marker for early detection of digestive tumors and a factor influencing the efficacy of tumor therapy. Studying the association between gut fungi and digestive tumors may facilitate the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of digestive tumors.

Objective To investigate the correlation between atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and the severity of hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) and the value of AIP combined with Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in the early prediction of severe HTG-AP (sHTG-AP). Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 170 patients with HTG-AP who were hospitalized in The General Hospital of Central Theater Command from January 2017 to December 2021, and according to related guidelines, they were divided into the sHTG-AP group with 28 patients and non-sHTG-AP group with 142 patients. Peripheral blood samples were collected from all patients within 24 hours after admission, and the two groups were compared in terms of sex, age, laboratory test results, AIP, BISAP score, and modified CT severity index (MCTSI) score. The chi-square test or the Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups; the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between groups. The Spearman rank correlation test was used to investigate the correlation between each factor and the severity of HTG-AP, and the binary logistic regression analysis were used to investigate the independent risk factors for sHTG-AP. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to assess the predictive efficacy of each indicator. Results There were significant differences between the two groups in the medical history of diabetes, lymphocyte count, albumin, Ca 2+ , triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, AIP, BISAP score, MCTSI score, length of hospital stay, and hospital costs (all P < 0.05). The sHTG-AP group had a longer length of hospital stay, higher hospital costs, and a higher AIP value. AIP (odds ratio [ OR ]=1.244, 95% confidence interval [ CI ]: 1.062-1.458, P =0.007), BISAP score ( OR =5.525, 95% CI : 1.646-18.543, P =0.006), and MCTSI score ( OR =2.029, 95% CI : 1.245-3.305, P =0.004) were risk factors for sHTG-AP. AIP, BISAP score, and MCTSI score were positively correlated with the severity of HTG-AP ( r =0.291, 0.631, and 0.649, all P < 0.001), and AIP was positively correlated with BISAP score and MCTSI score ( r =0.190 and 0.215, both P < 0.05). AIP had an optimal cut-off value of 1.095 in predicting sHTG-AP, and AIP, BISAP score, and AIP combined with BISAP score had an area under the ROC curve of 0.759, 0.887, 0.925, respectively, a sensitivity of 0.821, 0.857, and 0.786, respectively, and a specificity of 0.627, 0.817, and 0.937, respectively (all P < 0.001). Conclusion AIP is a risk factor for sHTG-AP and is correlated with disease severity, and AIP combined with BISAP score has a relatively high value in the early prediction of sHTG-AP.

The fungal microbiota from self-retained soil and tongue coating of 18 patients with precancerous lesions of upper gastrointestinal (PLUG) were sequenced. The diversity of α, β in and the structure of the microbial community were analyzed, and the association of them was quantified by using the Spearman rank correlation method. The richness index (1.67±2.79) and the diversity index (0.25±0.10) of the fungal microbiota from tongue coating of PLUG patients were significantly lower than those from soil (4.00±4.69; 0.99±0.18) (all P values<0.001). The relative abundance of 11 taxa from tongue coating of these PLUG patients was positively associated with that from soil (all P values<0.05).

OBJECTIVETo determine the clinical value of portable sleep testing by Watch-PAT (PAT) in children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS).

METHODFifty cases of snoring children aged 3-11 years were randomly selected to undergo the polysomnography (PSG) and PAT simultaneously at the same night. The consistency of sleep parameters in OSAS and non - OSAS children were compared with PSG as reference standard, and ROC curve analysis was performed to assess the sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of OSAS with PAT portable sleep monitor.

RESULTFourteen cases were diagnosed as OSAS in 6-11 years group by PAT and PSG. But in 3-5 years group, only six children were diagnosed as OSAS, there was significant difference between PAT and PSG (P < 0.05). Among those 6-11 years old children, compared with non-OSAS, PAT study showed that III+IV stage sleep ((30.5 ± 2.4)% vs. (38.2 ± 2.3)%, χ(2)=4.31, P<0.05), REM sleep duration ((8.9 ± 2.5)% vs. (18.3 ± 2.1)%, χ² =4.31, P<0.05), TST ((458 ± 78) min vs. (522 ± 56) min, t=4.85, P<0.05) and sleep efficiency ((83.5 ± 3.1)% vs. (93.5 ± 3.5)%, t=3.75, P<0.05) decreased, I+II stage sleep ((61.5 ± 4.4)% vs. (44.1 ± 3.5)%, χ² =6.07, P<0.05), arousal index ((29.5 ± 8.2)/h vs. (10.6 ± 5.6)/h, t=3.70, P<0.05), AHI ((7.6 ± 5.3)/h vs. (2.1 ± 2.0)/h, t=2.40, P<0.05), RDI((18.2 ± 5.1)/h vs. (6.5 ± 3.9)/h, t=3.85, P<0.05) increased in OSAS children. Furthermore, the total sleep time (TST) ((458 ± 78) min vs. (430 ± 76) min, t=2.90, P<0.05) and sleep efficiency ((83.5 ± 3.1) % vs. (81.9 ± 4.3) %, t=2.45, P<0.05) were higher by PAT than scored by PSG. ROC curve analysis showed the best threshold selection of AHI 5.0, the sensitivity was 0.952, the specificity was 0.858. AHI 7.0, the sensitivity was 0.968, the specificity was 0.985. AHI 10, the sensitivity was 0.985 and the specificity was 0.99, but AHI 1.0, the sensitivity was 0.852 and the specificity was 0.785.

CONCLUSIONPAT can be used at home in school age children due to the high consistency with PSG and the high compliance.

Child ; Child, Preschool ; Humans ; Polysomnography ; methods ; ROC Curve ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Sleep ; Sleep Apnea, Obstructive ; diagnosis ; Sleep Stages ; Snoring ; physiopathology