OBJECTIVES: The association between the spread of infectious diseases and climate parameters has been widely studied in recent decades. In this paper, we formulate, exploit, and compare three variations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model incorporating climate data. The SIR model is a well-studied model to investigate the dynamics of influenza viruses; however, the improved versions of the classic model have been developed by introducing external factors into the model. METHODS: The modification models are derived by multiplying a linear combination of three complementary factors, namely, temperature (T), precipitation (P), and humidity (H) by the transmission rate. The performance of these proposed models is evaluated against the standard model for two outbreak seasons. RESULTS: The values of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) improved as they declined from 8.76 to 7.05 and from 98.12 to 93.01 for season 2013/14, respectively. Similarly, for season 2014/15, the RMSE and AIC decreased from 8.10 to 6.45 and from 117.73 to 107.91, respectively. The estimated values of R(t) in the framework of the standard and modified SIR models are also compared. CONCLUSIONS: Through simulations, we determined that among the studied environmental factors, precipitation showed the strongest correlation with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Moreover, the SIR+P+T model is the most efficient for simulating the behavioral dynamics of influenza in the area of interest.
Basic Reproduction Number ; Climate ; Communicable Diseases ; Epidemiology ; Humidity ; Influenza, Human* ; Iran* ; Least-Squares Analysis ; Orthomyxoviridae ; Seasons

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to extend an epidemiological model (SEIHFR) to analyze epidemic trends, and evaluate intervention efficacy. METHODS: SEIHFR was modified to examine disease transmission dynamics after vaccination for the Ebola outbreak. Using existing data from Liberia, sensitivity analysis of various epidemic scenarios was used to inform the model structure, estimate the basic reproduction number ℜ₀ and investigate how the vaccination could effectively change the course of the epidemic. RESULTS: If a randomized mass vaccination strategy was adopted, vaccines would be administered prophylactically or as early as possible (depending on the availability of vaccines). An effective vaccination rate threshold for Liberia was estimated as 48.74% among susceptible individuals. If a ring vaccination strategy was adopted to control the spread of the Ebola virus, vaccines would be given to reduce the transmission rate improving the tracing rate of the contact persons of an infected individual. CONCLUSION: The extended SEIHFR model predicted the total number of infected cases, number of deaths, number of recoveries, and duration of outbreaks among others with different levels of interventions such as vaccination rate. This model may be used to better understand the spread of Ebola and develop strategies that may achieve a disease-free state.
Africa, Western ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ebolavirus ; Humans ; Liberia ; Mass Vaccination ; Vaccination ; Vaccines

Objective: To evaluate effectiveness of the precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province. Methods: Based on the incidence data of COVID-19 and case epidemiological survey report in Ningbo in December 2021, the incidence curve of COVID-19 was generated and a dynamics model was developed to estimate the case number of under different intervention measures. The basic reproduction number (R₀) and real-time reproduction number (R_t) were calculated to evaluate intervention effect. Results: A total of 74 cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Ningbo as of 17 December, 2021. The R₀ was estimated to be 4.3. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, the R_t showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on December 11 and 0.4 on December 14. The model fitting results showed that the actual case number was close to the estimated case number (76 cases) when the effectiveness of intervention was 90%. The number of cases decreased by 98.4% compared with that if no intervention was taken. Conclusion: The precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 have obvious effect, which can facilitate the rapid control of COVID-19 epidemic in Ningbo.
Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Incidence ; Surveys and Questionnaires

As over 1000 new cases of HIV/AIDS occur in Korea annually, preventive health programs against HIV/AIDS are urgently needed. Since phylodynamic studies have been suggested as a way to understand how infectious diseases are transmitted and evolve, phylodynamic inferences can be a useful tool for HIV/AIDS research. In particular, phylodynamic models are helpful for dating the origins of an epidemic and estimating its basic reproduction number. Thus, the introduction of phylodynamics would be a highly valuable step towards controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Korea.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Biological Evolution ; Communicable Diseases ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; HIV ; Korea* ; Molecular Epidemiology

OBJECTIVES: The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy. METHODS: The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA. RESULTS: The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease. CONCLUSION: Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.
Basic Reproduction Number ; Coronavirus Infections* ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Early Intervention (Education) ; Incidence ; Korea ; Mass Media ; Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus* ; Middle East* ; Public Health ; Social Problems

Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/virology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disease Outbreaks ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Sex Ratio ; Young Adult