Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008.Application of modem information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control.A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study.Eighty-four-month (from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling.The coefficient of determination (R2),normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models.Subsequently,the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016.The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12,with the largest coefficient of determination (R2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC (BIC=3.645) value.The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations (PBox-Ljung (Q)=0.299).The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval,including a major peak during April to June,and again a light peak for September to November.The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively,which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area.Besides,further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set,and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.

OBJECTIVETo establish fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) assay method of detecting proteolytic activity of non-structural protein 3-4A (NS3-4A) serine protease of hepatitis C virus (HCV) for high throughput screening inhibitors against HCV in vitro.

METHODSHCV recombinant plasmid pMAL~c2/NS3-4A was transformed into the E.coli strain K12TB1. Maltose-binding-protein (MBP) NS3-4A fusion protein expression was induced by adding isopropyl-β-D-thiogalacto-pyranoside (IPTG) and purified by affinity chromatography. The proteolytic activity of MBP-NS3-4A protease was analyzed by FRET with the special protease substrate. The reaction system in this model was optimized, and the reliability of the model was evaluated.

RESULTSHigh throughput screening model for HCV NS3-4A protease inhibitors was established, and the best concentrations of enzyme and substrate were optimized. In the model, the Km value of protease was 4.74 μmol/L, Z factor was up to 0.80, and coefficient of variation (CV) was 1.91%. BILN 2061, one of the known HCV protease inhibitors, was measured with the Ki of 0.30 nmol/L.

CONCLUSIONThe assay model using FRET method for HCV NS3 4A serine protease is stable and reliable, and the model is suitable for high throughput screening for HCV NS3 4A protease inhibitors.

Antiviral Agents ; pharmacology ; Drug Evaluation, Preclinical ; Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer ; Hepacivirus ; enzymology ; High-Throughput Screening Assays ; methods ; Protease Inhibitors ; pharmacology ; Viral Nonstructural Proteins ; antagonists & inhibitors ; genetics

OBJECTIVETo evaluate and analyze the misplacement patterns of the pedicle screws in surgical correction of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

METHODSFor this study, 70 consecutive cases of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis treated by posterior instrumented spinal fusion with pedicle screws were investigated from July 2008 to September 2008. Postoperative CT scans were performed in all cases. The patients included 58 girls and 12 boys, with a mean age of 14.5 +/- 2.7 years at surgery (range 12 - 19 years). Pedicle screws were inserted using anatomic landmark with free hand technique. A number of parameters were measured using PacsClient software (PACS) on workstation, which included distances of the penetration of medial, lateral pedicle cortex and anterior vertebral cortex. The distance between edge of aorta and tip of screw should be measured if left pedicle screw penetrated lateral pedicle cortex or anterior vertebral cortex. Misplacement screws with > 2 mm of either pedicular cortex perforation and grievous screws with >4 mm of medial pedicle perforation or contour of aorta were defined. The influencing factors for misplacement screws were analyzed.

RESULTSA total of 1030 pedicle screws were inserted, 773 in thoracic pedicle and 257 in lumbar pedicle. There were 108 (10.5%) misplacement screws, 35 of which penetrated lateral pedicle cortex, 56 of which penetrated medial pedicle cortex, 33 of which penetrated vertebral anterior cortex. Misplacement screw rate of apical vertebra, 5 segments above apical vertebra (AV-5s) and 4 segments below apical vertebra (AV + 4s) were higher than other levels. Most of grievous screws were placed in apical vertebra region.

CONCLUSIONSThe risk factors for misplacement screws included Cobb angle > 90 degrees and vertebrae rotation extent up to III-IV. Care should be exercised during pedicle screw instrumentation in the apical region of the main thoracic curve, AV-5s region and AV + 4s region.

Adolescent ; Bone Screws ; Child ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Scoliosis ; surgery ; Spinal Fusion ; instrumentation ; methods ; Treatment Outcome ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVETo investigate the abnormality of somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) with different curve magnitudes, and to explore its effect on the etiopathogenesis of AIS.

METHODSPosterior tibial nerve SEPs were evaluated on 489 young operative treated AIS patients with a Cobb angle >40 degrees and 45 age-matched healthy control individuals. Absence of SEPs waveforms, prolongation of peek latency or asymmetrical peek latency were defined as pathological change. Base on the control reference, the incidence of pathological SEPs was determined in AIS group. The association of abnormal SEPs and curve severity for AIS patients was also assessed.

RESULTSPeek latency corrected for body height was slightly longer in AIS patients than in controls, however, with no significant difference. Inter side difference of latency was significantly larger in AIS patients. Abnormal SEPs were found in 166 of 489 AIS patients. Among these, 17 (10.2%) showed absent waveforms, 50 (30.1%) had unilateral latency prolongation, 38 (22.9%) had bilateral latency prolongation, and 120 (72.3%) showed significant inter side difference. Statistical analysis failed to show a correlation between abnormal SEPs and the curve severity of spinal deformity.

CONCLUSIONDisorder of somatosensory pathways does exist in a subgroup of AIS patients, and it might be a primary factor other than secondary change, and could play an import role in the etiopathogenesis of AIS.

Adolescent ; Case-Control Studies ; Child ; Evoked Potentials, Somatosensory ; physiology ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Retrospective Studies ; Scoliosis ; pathology ; physiopathology ; Spine ; pathology ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVETo survey the distribution of influenza A subtypes in external environment and investigate the infectious status of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry-exposed population in Wuhan.

METHODSSeventy-eight external environmental samples (water, cage surface and fecal samples) were collected from 3 habitats of wild migratory birds and 5 urban live-poultry markets in 2010. In 13 avian influenza monitoring points, 249 serum samples were collected from people living around habitats of wild migratory birds or working in live poultry markets. Real-time RT-PCR method was adopted to detect influenza A virus from external environmental samples; and multiple RT-PCR method and specific H3, H5, H7 and H9 primers were then applied to analyze the subtypes of the positive samples. The levels of H5N1 antibody in poultry-exposed population were tested by horse hemagglutination inhibition test and two avian influenza inactivated antigens: A/Hubei/1/10 and A/Anhui/1/05.

RESULTSOf the 50 external environmental samples collected from live poultry markets, 17 samples were determined to be influenza A virus positive (positive rate 34.0%), including specific subtypes as follows: 4 samples of H5 single-positive subtype, 3 samples of H9 single-positive subtype, 4 samples of H3 and H5 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H3 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H5 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, 2 samples of H3, H5 and H9 mixed-positive subtype, but no H7 positive subtype was found. The 28 external environmental samples collected from habitats of wild migratory birds were all influenza A virus negative. Considering different types of external environmental samples, the influenza A virus positive rates in water, cage surface and fecal samples were 37.5% (6/16), 16.7% (5/30) and 18.8% (6/32), respectively. There were total 100 samples of serum whose A/Hubei/1/10 antigen inhibiting titers ≥ 40, accounting for 40.2%; while 36 samples of serum (14.5%) whose A/Anhui/1/05 antigen inhibiting titers ≥ 40 were found. The difference had statistical significance (χ(2) = 41.433, P < 0.05). Among the 249 serum samples collected from poultry-exposed population, 5 samples were H5N1 antibody positive against A/Hubei/1/10 antigen (inhibition titer ≥ 160), which came from 4 different live poultry markets, however, no positive serum sample against A/Anhui/1/05 antigen was found.

CONCLUSIONMultiple subtypes of avian influenza virus simultaneously prevailed in Wuhan urban poultry markets. Moreover, results from the distribution of avian influenza virus in external environment were consistent with the level of H5N1 antibody in poultry-exposed population.

Animals ; Antibodies, Viral ; blood ; Birds ; virology ; China ; Environment ; Humans ; Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype ; immunology ; Occupational Exposure ; Poultry ; virology

BACKGROUNDHomoharringtonine (HHT) is effective in treating late stage chronic myelogenous leukaemia (CML), but little is known about long term maintenance during complete cytogenetic response. Long term efficacy and toxicity profiles of low dose HHT were evaluated in this study.

METHODSOne hundred and six patients with CML received 1.5 mg/m(2) of HHT alone by continuous daily infusion for seven to nine days every four weeks. Of 79 patients in the control group, 31 were treated with interferon alpha (IFN-alpha) and 48 with hydroxycarbamide. For 17 patients who failed to achieve cytogenetic response within 12 months' treatment of IFN-alpha, HHT was administered. Quantitative RT-PCR was used to detect the BCR-ABL mRNA expression in 36 Philadelphia positive CML patients enrolled after 2007. Haematological and cytogenetic responses were evaluated in all patients at the 12th month of follow-up. Long term efficacy was assessed in a follow-up with a median time of 54 months (12 months-98 months).

RESULTSAfter 12 months of therapy, cytogenetic response rate of the HHT, IFN-alpha and hydroxycarbamide groups were 39/106, 14/31 and 3/48, and corresponding molecular cytogenetic response rates 6/18, 3/8 and 0. Of the 17 patients who received HHT as salvage treatment, 6 achieved cytogenetic response (3 major). At the 48 months' follow-up, cytogenetic response was maintained in 32/39 patients treated with HHT. Patients who had cytogenetic response in HHT group or treated with IFN-alpha also showed longer median chronic durations, which were 45 months (12 months-98 months) and 49 months (12 months-92 months) respectively, indicating a longer survival time.

CONCLUSIONSLow dose HHT alone showed considerable short term and long term efficacy in the treatment of late stage CML. It may also be a good choice for patients who have failed imatinib, IFN-alpha treatment or haematopoietic stem cell transplantation or cannot afford these treatments.

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Antineoplastic Agents, Phytogenic ; therapeutic use ; Female ; Fusion Proteins, bcr-abl ; genetics ; Harringtonines ; therapeutic use ; Humans ; Interferon-alpha ; therapeutic use ; Leukemia, Myelogenous, Chronic, BCR-ABL Positive ; drug therapy ; genetics ; pathology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Treatment Outcome ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVETo analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age, period and cohort on esophageal cancer mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986 - 2010, and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016 - 2020.

METHODSAll of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986 - 2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province. The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other. The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982. Intrinsic estimator model (IE model)was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters. Age effect, period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately. The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016 - 2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model.

RESULTSA total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986 - 2010. The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100, 000. Among men, the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100, 000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100, 000 during 2006 - 2010. For women, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100, 000 to 39.05 per 100, 000 at the same two calendar periods. The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable, the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly. The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016 - 2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women. Compared with 2006 - 2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71% and 11.08%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONSThe mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986 - 2010. This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect. The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually.

Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; China ; epidemiology ; Cohort Studies ; Esophageal Neoplasms ; mortality ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality ; trends

Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; epidemiology ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Hepatitis B ; epidemiology ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks.Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation(BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

BACKGROUNDIn humans telomerase is expressed in most cancers and immortal cell lines, and activation of telomerase may play important roles in tumorigenesis and immortalization. This study was to investigate the roles of telomerase activity (TA) and human telomerase RNA (hTR) in sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid.

METHODSThe telomerase repeated amplification protocol (TRAP) was used to demonstrate telomerase activity in 12 cases of sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid. In situ hybridization (ISH) was used to demonstrate the expression of hTR in 55 cases of paraffin-embedded sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid, and the results were compared with the proliferative index determined by Mib-1 immuno-labeling, histological patterns and recurrence of the tumor.

RESULTSDifferent telomerase activity was shown in the 12 cases of sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid. The positive expression of hTR was 85.5% (47/55) in tumor cells, but not in the adjacent tissues. The positive expression of hTR was correlated with the proliferative activity (as assessed by Mib-1 immunolabelling, r = 0.942, P < 0.001) and the differentiation of sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid (chi(2) = 17.621, P < 0.001), but not significantly related to tumor recurrence. The level of hTR expression increased with the decrease of differentiation of sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid.

CONCLUSIONSThe results suggest that the up-regulation of telomerase expression plays some roles in tarsal gland carcinogenesis, and the expression of hTR is a useful marker for malignant degree of sebaceous carcinoma of the eyelid.

Biomarkers, Tumor ; analysis ; Eyelid Neoplasms ; enzymology ; pathology ; Humans ; In Situ Hybridization ; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ; enzymology ; RNA ; analysis ; Sebaceous Gland Neoplasms ; enzymology ; pathology ; Telomerase ; analysis