1.Machine learning to risk stratify chest pain patients with non-diagnostic electrocardiogram in an Asian emergency department.
Ziwei LIN ; Tar Choon AW ; Laurel JACKSON ; Cheryl Shumin KOW ; Gillian MURTAGH ; Siang Jin Terrance CHUA ; Arthur Mark RICHARDS ; Swee Han LIM
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(4):219-226
INTRODUCTION:
Elevated troponin, while essential for diagnosing myocardial infarction, can also be present in non-myocardial infarction conditions. The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm is a machine learning algorithm that considers age, sex and cardiac troponin I (TnI) results to risk-stratify patients for type 1 myocardial infarction.
METHOD:
Patients aged ≥25 years who presented to the emergency department (ED) of Singapore General Hospital with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome with no diagnostic 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were included. Participants had serial ECGs and high-sensitivity troponin assays performed at 0, 2 and 7 hours. The primary outcome was the adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction at 30 days. We compared the performance of MI3 in predicting the primary outcome with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/2-hour algorithm as well as the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) for TnI.
RESULTS:
There were 1351 patients included (66.7% male, mean age 56 years), 902 (66.8%) of whom had only 0-hour troponin results and 449 (33.2%) with serial (both 0 and 2-hour) troponin results available. MI3 ruled out type 1 myocardial infarction with a higher sensitivity (98.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 93.4-99.9%) and similar negative predictive value (NPV) 99.8% (95% CI 98.6-100%) as compared to the ESC strategy. The 99th percentile cut-off strategy had the lowest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and NPV.
CONCLUSION
The MI3 algorithm was accurate in risk stratifying ED patients for myocardial infarction. The 99th percentile URL cut-off was the least accurate in ruling in and out myocardial infarction compared to the other strategies.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Emergency Service, Hospital
;
Middle Aged
;
Electrocardiography
;
Machine Learning
;
Singapore
;
Chest Pain/blood*
;
Troponin I/blood*
;
Myocardial Infarction/blood*
;
Risk Assessment/methods*
;
Aged
;
Algorithms
;
Acute Coronary Syndrome/blood*
;
Adult
;
Sensitivity and Specificity
2.High-sensitivity troponin T and long-term adverse cardiac events among patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome in Singapore.
Ziwei LIN ; Swee Han LIM ; Siang Jin Terrance CHUA ; E Shyong TAI ; Yiong Huak CHAN ; Arthur Mark RICHARDS
Singapore medical journal 2019;60(8):418-426
INTRODUCTION:
Prognostic thresholds for 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) have been studied for high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but there is limited data on the prognostic performance of hsTnT for one-year MACE.
METHODS:
We prospectively measured hsTnT (in ng/mL up to two decimal places) at 0, 2 and 7 hours for patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of ACS to our emergency department from March 2010 to April 2013. We assessed the prognostic performance of hsTnT cut-offs for 30-day and one-year MACE, and the utility of delta-hsTnT in predicting MACE.
RESULTS:
Among 2,444 patients studied, 273 (11.2%) developed MACE (including index MACE) by 30 days and 359 (14.7%) patients developed MACE at one year. The suggested hsTnT cut-off for 30-day MACE was ≥ 10 ng/L at 0 hour (positive predictive value [PPV] 33.5%, negative predictive value [NPV] 94.5%) and 7 hours (PPV 37.3%, NPV 94.5%), and ≥ 20 ng/L at 2 hours (PPV 36.9%, NPV 96.9%). For one-year MACE, the suggested cut-off was also ≥ 10 ng/L at all readings. Plasma hsTnT ≥ 30 ng/L at any reading gave PPV > 54% and NPV > 93% for 30-day MACE. Absolute 0-2 hour and 2-7 hour delta-hsTnT ≥ 10 ng/L gave PPV > 50% for 30-day and one-year MACE.
CONCLUSION
Patients with 0-, 2- or 7-hour hsTnT ≥ 30 ng/L and 0-2 hour delta-hsTnT ≥ 10 ng/L had PPV > 50% for 30-day and one-year MACE, and should be investigated thoroughly.
4.Long-term Outcomes of Medical Therapy Versus Coronary Revascularisation in Patients with Intermediate Stenoses Guided by Pressure Wire.
Hongyu SHI ; Chi Hang LEE ; Mark Y Y CHAN ; Adrian F LOW ; Swee Guan TEO ; Koo Hui CHAN ; Rishi SETHI ; Arthur Mark RICHARDS ; Huay Cheem TAN
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2015;44(5):157-163
INTRODUCTIONThis study aimed to examine the long-term clinical outcomes of coronary fractional flow reserve (FFR)-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a real-world population in an Asian tertiary centre.
MATERIALS AND METHODSAll patients who underwent FFR measurement for intermediate coronary lesions in our centre from June 2002 to December 2009 were enrolled. A threshold of FFR ≤0.75 was used for revascularisation. All the patients were prospectively followed-up for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) of death, myocardial infarction (MI), target vessel revascularisation (TVR) and stent thrombosis.
RESULTSBased on FFR measurement, 368 (57%) patients were treated medically while 278 (43%) underwent revascularisation. At a mean follow-up duration of 29.7 ± 16 months, 53 (14.4%) patients in the medical therapy group and 32 (11.5%) patients in the revascularised group experienced MACE (P = 0.282). There were no statistical differences in all the clinical endpoints between the 2 groups.
CONCLUSIONMedical therapy based on FFR measurement is associated with low incidences of MACE at long-term follow-up.
Adult ; Aged ; Aspirin ; therapeutic use ; Coronary Stenosis ; complications ; diagnosis ; therapy ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ; methods ; Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors ; therapeutic use ; Retrospective Studies ; Ticlopidine ; analogs & derivatives ; therapeutic use ; Treatment Outcome
5.High-grade culprit lesions are a common cause of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.
Michael LIANG ; Takashi KAJIYA ; Mark Y CHAN ; Edgar TAY ; Chi-Hang LEE ; Arthur Mark RICHARDS ; Adrian F LOW ; Huay Cheem TAN
Singapore medical journal 2015;56(6):334-338
INTRODUCTIONConventional knowledge holds that the majority of ruptured atherosclerotic plaques causing ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are found in moderate stenoses that produce < 50% loss of arterial diameter. This study aimed to analyse the culprit lesions in patients who presented with STEMI and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) at our institution.
METHODSPatients who underwent PPCI between June 2008 and August 2010 at our institution were included in the analysis. Quantitative coronary angiography was performed for the culprit lesions immediately after antegrade flow was restored by thrombectomy, low-profile balloon predilatation or guidewire crossing.
RESULTSA total of 1,021 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 57 ± 12 years and 85.2% were male. Lesion measurement was done after coronary flow was restored by thrombectomy (73.1%), balloon dilatation (24.1%) and following guidewire passage across the lesion (2.8%). Mean minimal luminal diameter was 1.1 ± 0.5 mm, mean reference vessel diameter was 2.8 ± 0.6 mm, mean diameter stenosis was 61 ± 16% and mean lesion length was 16 ± 6 mm. Most (80.2%) of the culprit lesions had diameter stenoses > 50% (p < 0.01). Although balloon angioplasty was performed in 24.1% of the patients, the majority (64.2%) still had diameter stenoses > 50%. High-grade stenoses (> 50%) were more frequently observed in male patients (p = 0.04).
CONCLUSIONContrary to the existing paradigm, we found that most of the patients with STEMI in our institution had culprit lesions with diameter stenosis > 50%.
Adult ; Aged ; Angioplasty ; Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary ; Constriction, Pathologic ; Coronary Angiography ; Coronary Vessels ; surgery ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ; Plaque, Atherosclerotic ; complications ; Reference Values ; Retrospective Studies ; Rupture ; complications ; ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction ; etiology ; surgery ; Sex Factors ; Thrombectomy ; methods

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