1.Winning The War Against Covid-19 In Malaysia: An Achievable Goal?
Mohd Hafiz Jaafar ; Amirah Azzeri
Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine 2020;20(1):148-149
The World Health Organization (WHO) has initially categorised COVID-19 infection as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in late January 2020 and later on declared the outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. On February 4, 2020 the first Malaysian positive COVID-19 patients was detected. It was estimated through a thorough decision tree technique, cumulatively 22,000 positive patients were expected to be infected nationwide. At the current rate of disease detection, screening yield and clinical capacity in Malaysia, the identification of the positive patients will have to be continuously done until middle of May 2020. In addition, a prediction with the forecasted testing capacity was also conducted. In contrast with the earlier estimation, massive testing causes the number of positive patients to be saturated earlier, by the end of April 2020. Based on the projection, 346, 307 cumulative tests will be conducted with 225,100 cumulative positive cases will be identified. Of the numbers, the cumulative number of patients in care would be 17,631 with 705 cumulative number of admission to intensive care unit and 353 cumulative patients required for ventilator. The cumulative death and cumulative discharge are expected to be 394 and 6008 respectively. Currently, it is challenging for Malaysia to flatten the epidemic curve due to the constraints of healthcare resources. These challenges potentially highlight the need for realistic strategies with regard to the country’s capacity.
2.Period Poverty: A Neglected Public Health Issue
Hafiz JAAFAR ; Suraya Yasmin ISMAIL ; Amirah AZZERI
Korean Journal of Family Medicine 2023;44(4):183-188
Period poverty is a global community health dilemma that has long been overlooked. This condition is described as having insufficient access to menstrual products, education, and sanitation facilities. Briefly, period poverty means that millions of women are subjected to injustice and inequity due to menstruation. This review aimed to explore the definition, challenges, and effects of period poverty on the community, especially among women at their productive ages. In addition, suggestions to minimize the impact of period poverty are discussed. A search strategy was applied using the keywords “period poverty,” “period equity,” “period poverty,” and “menstrual hygiene” in Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, MEDLINE, and PubMed electronic databases, journals, and articles on relevant topics. Trained researchers conducted a keyword search from January 2021 to June 2022. Based on the reviewed studies, it has been proven that many countries are still affected by the period stigma and taboo, inadequate exposure to menstrual health and its management, lack of education about menstruation, and shortage of access to menstrual products and facilities. The next step is to reduce and slowly eliminate the period poverty issue by conducting more research to increase clinical evidence and future references. This narrative review could inform policymakers of the magnitude of the burden related to this issue and guide them to develop effective strategies to minimize the impact of poverty, especially during the challenging years of the post-coronavirus disease 2019 era.
3.PREDICTION OF DISEASE BURDEN AND HEALTHCARE RESOURCE UTILIZATION THROUGH SIMPLE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS USING MATHEMATICAL APPROACHES, AN EXPERIENCE FROM UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA MEDICAL CENTRE
Amirah binti Azzeri ; Nur Farhan Abudl Hakim ; Mohd Hafiz Jaafar ; Maznah Dahlul ; Sajaratulnisah Othman ; Tunku Kamarul Zaman Tunku Zainol Abidin
Journal of University of Malaya Medical Centre 2020;23(Special Issue COVID19):10-15
The sudden surge in the number of healthcare utilizations compels the hospital to plan for its future needs. Several time-series projections of Covid-19 were conducted to forecast the disease burden and resources utilization through simple predictive analytics. The projections revealed a rapid increase in the number of cases and patient in care at the hospital. It was estimated that the number of patients in care to range from 62 to 81 and 89 to 121 patients daily in the second and third phase of movement control order respectively. It was estimated that more than 100,000 plastic aprons, 80,000 sterile and non-sterile isolation gowns, 40,000 masks N95 and face shields, 30,000 gloves and nearly 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizers are needed until late May. Hence, a simple mathematical algorithm is a helpful tool to manage hospital resources during the pandemic.
COVID-19
4.THE IMPACT OF MOVEMENT CONTROL ORDER DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON HEALTHCARE UTILISATION: HOW DOES THE PROJECTED PATIENT WORKLOAD COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF PATIENTS IN CARE?
Amirah binti Azzeri ; Nur Farhan Abdul Hakim ; Hafiz Jaafar ; Maznah Dahlui ; Sajaratulnisah Othman ; Tunku Kamarul Zaman Tunku Zainol Abidin
Journal of University of Malaya Medical Centre 2021;24(SPECIAL ISSUE):22-25
The rising healthcare demand during COVID-19 outbreak may endanger patients and forces hospital to plan for future needs. Predictive analyses were conducted to monitor hospital resources at one of the gazetted COVID-19 hospitals in Malaysia. Simultaneously, a real-time observation on patient’s volume was conducted to understand the actual trend of healthcare resource utilisations. All the projections were directly compared to the actual number of patients in-care. This predictive study was done at University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC) using various sources of data. The projections revealed a steady increase in the number of cumulative cases until April 2020 followed by an exponential increase in the number of cumulative positive cases in Malaysia. When a comparison between the projection and actual data was done, it was found that the initial projections estimated a range that is 50% to 70% higher during the first three phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) compared to the actual number of COVID-19 patients at UMMC. Subsequent projections were done by using recent estimations from the national database and it was estimated that the number of patients treated will be less than 10 each day up until the end of May 2020. The accuracy of this estimation is 95% when compared to the actual number of COVID-19 patients in care. In conclusion, the practice of continuous projections and real-time observation through predictive analysis using mathematical calculations and algorithms is one of the useful tools to facilitate hospital management to allocate adequate resource allocations.
COVID-19