BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the disease burden of alopecia areata (AA) in China exceeds the global average. Therefore, accurate and updated epidemiological information is crucial for policymakers. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively assess the disease burden of AA in China. METHODS: The following four key indicators were utilized: the prevalence of cases; disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR); and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of AA according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological burden of AA in China during 2021, examined changes between 1990 and 2021, and performed a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis to predict trends over the course of the next decade (2022-2030). Additionally, a Gaussian process regression model was applied to estimate the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the ASPR and ASDR of AA at the provincial level between 1992 and 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the estimated number of patients with AA in China was approximately 3.49 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.37-3.62 million); of these patients, 1.20 million (95% UI, 1.16-1.25 million) were male and 2.29 million (95% UI, 2.20-2.37 million) were female. This large number of patients with AA resulted in a total of 114,431.25 DALYs (95% UI, 74,780.27-160,318.96 DALYs). Additionally, the ASPR and ASDR were 224.61 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 216.73-232.65 per 100,000 population) and 7.41 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 4.85-10.44 per 100,000 population), respectively; both of these rates were higher than the global averages. The most affected demographic groups were young and female individuals 25-39 years of age. Slight regional disparities were observed, with the northern and central regions of China bearing comparatively higher burdens. Between 1990 and 2021, the health loss and disease burden caused by AA in China remained relatively stable. The ASPR and ASDR of AA increased with the GDP when the annual GDP was less than 2 trillion Chinese yuan; however, a downward trend was observed as the GDP surpassed 2 trillion Chinese yuan. A slight upward trend in the disease burden of AA in China is predicted to occur over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS AA continues to be a public health concern in China that shows no signs of declining. Targeted efforts for young individuals and females are necessary because they experience a disproportionately high burden of AA.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Alopecia Areata/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of individuals with diabetes worldwide are at risk of developing diabetic kidney disease (DKD), which is not only the leading cause of kidney failure, but also significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, causing significant societal health and financial burdens. This study aimed to describe the burden of DKD and explore its cross-country epidemiological status, predict development trends, and assess its risk factors and sociodemographic transitions. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2021, data on DKD due to type 1 diabetes (DKD-T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (DKD-T2DM) were analyzed by sex, age, year, and location. Numbers and age-standardized rates were used to compare the disease burden between DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM among locations. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the potential drivers. Locally weighted scatter plot smoothing and Frontier analysis were used to estimate sociodemographic transitions of DKD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: The DALYs due to DKD increased markedly from 1990 to 2021, with a 74.0% (from 2,227,518 to 3,875,628) and 173.6% (from 4,122,919 to 11,278,935) increase for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM, respectively. In 2030, the estimated DALYs for DKD-T1DM surpassed 4.4 million, with that of DKD-T2DM exceeding 14.6 million. Notably, middle-sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile was responsible for the most significant DALYs. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were major drivers for the increased DKD DALYs in most regions. Interestingly, the most pronounced effect of positive DALYs change from 1990 to 2021 was presented in high-SDI quintile, while in low-SDI quintile, DALYs for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM presented a decreasing trend over the past years. Frontiers analysis revealed that there was a negative association between SDI quintiles and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) in DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM. Countries with middle-SDI shouldered disproportionately high DKD burden. Kidney dysfunction (nearly 100.0% for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM), high fasting plasma glucose (70.8% for DKD-T1DM and 87.4% for DKD-T2DM), and non-optimal temperatures (low and high, 5.0% for DKD-T1DM and 5.1% for DKD-T2DM) were common risk factors for age-standardized DALYs in T1DM-DKD and T2DM-DKD. There were other specific risk factors for DKD-T2DM such as high body mass index (38.2%), high systolic blood pressure (10.2%), dietary risks (17.8%), low physical activity (6.2%), lead exposure (1.2%), and other environmental risks. CONCLUSIONS DKD markedly increased and varied significantly across regions, contributing to a substantial disease burden, especially in middle-SDI countries. The rise in DKD is primarily driven by population growth, aging, and key risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and kidney dysfunction, with projections suggesting continued escalation of the burden by 2030.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Male ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Diabetic Nephropathies/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/complications* ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: The FAVOR (Comparison of Quantitative Flow Ratio Guided and Angiography Guided Percutaneous Intervention in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease) III China trial demonstrated that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) lesion selection using quantitative flow ratio (QFR) measurement, a novel angiography-based approach for estimating fractional flow reserve, improved two-year clinical outcomes compared with standard angiography guidance. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of QFR-guided PCI from the perspective of the current Chinese healthcare system. METHODS: This study is a pre-specified analysis of the FAVOR III China trial, which included 3825 patients randomized between December 25, 2018, and January 19, 2020, from 26 centers in China. Patients with stable or unstable angina pectoris or those ≥72 hours post-myocardial infarction who had at least one lesion with a diameter stenosis between 50% and 90% in a coronary artery with a ≥2.5 mm reference vessel diameter by visual assessment were randomized to a QFR-guided strategy or an angiography-guided strategy with 1:1 ratio. During the two-year follow-up, data were collected on clinical outcomes, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), estimated costs of index procedure hospitalization, outpatient cardiovascular medication use, and rehospitalization due to major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). The primary analysis calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as the cost per MACCE avoided. An ICER of ¥10,000/MACCE event avoided was considered economically attractive in China. RESULTS: At two years, the QFR-guided group demonstrated a reduced rate of MACCE compared to the angiography-guided group (10.8% vs . 14.7%, P <0.01). Total two-year costs were similar between the groups (¥50,803 ± 21,121 vs . ¥50,685 ± 23,495, P = 0.87). The ICER for the QFR-guided strategy was ¥3055 per MACCE avoided, and the probability of QFR being economically attractive was 64% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥10,000/MACCE avoided. Sensitivity analysis showed that QFR-guided PCI would become cost-saving if the cost of QFR were below ¥3682 (current cost: ¥3800). Cost-utility analysis yielded an ICER of ¥56,163 per QALY gained, with a 53% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥85,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing PCI, a QFR-guided strategy appears economically attractive compared to angiographic guidance from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03656848.
Humans ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/methods* ; Male ; Female ; Coronary Angiography/methods* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Coronary Artery Disease/surgery* ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Fractional Flow Reserve, Myocardial/physiology*

BACKGROUND: Most studies have evaluated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients based on a set of generic disability weights (DWs). This study aimed to apply local CRC-stage-specific DWs to estimate the burden of DALYs for CRC (CRC-DALYs) in populations in China and consider the influence of local screening coverage of CRC. METHODS: A prevalence-based model was constructed using data from various sources. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated mainly via cumulative prevalence data (based on CRC incidence rates, population numbers, and survival rates), stage-specific proportions of CRC, and DWs of the local population. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated based on the CRC mortality rates and standard life expectancies. CRC incidence and mortality rates for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 were estimated by joinpoint regression, and the corresponding DALYs were predicted. The main assumption was made for CRC screening coverage. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the impact of population, DWs, and coverage. RESULTS: In 2017, among the Chinese population, the estimated number of CRC-DALYs was 4,303,314 (11.9% for YLDs). If CRC screening coverage rate in China (2.3%) remains unchanged, the overall DALYs in 2030 are predicted to increase by 37.2% (45.1% of those aged ≥65 years). More optimistically, the DALYs would then decrease by 0.7% in 2030 (from 5,902,454 to 5,860,200) if the coverage could be increased to 25.0%. A sensitivity analysis revealed that using local DWs would change the base-case values by 5.7%. CONCLUSIONS The estimated CRC-DALYs in China using population-specific DWs were considerably lower (with a higher percentage of YLDs) than the global burden of disease (GBD) estimates (5,865,004, of 4.6% for YLDs), suggesting the impact extent of applying local parameters. Sustainable scale-up CRC screening needs to be in place to moderate the growth trend of CRC-DALYs in China.
Humans ; Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Prevalence ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Incidence

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. METHODS: The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality* ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Chronic Disease ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology* ; Aged

BACKGROUND: Gout is a chronic disease primarily caused by elevated urate levels, severely affecting joint health. Its global distribution varies, and updated data for China are lacking. This study aimed to analyze the current burden and trends of gout globally and in China, examining the burden by gender, age, and risk factors while providing future predictions. METHODS: This descriptive epidemiological secondary analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021 study. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) were used to assess the gout burden. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed across global regions, genders, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. The burden in China was further examined by gender, age, and associated risk factors. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends. Gout burden in China and the United States was compared. RESULTS: In 2021, gout affected 57 million people globally, with 9.4 million new cases and 1.75 million DALYs. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increased by 17.2%, 21.9%, and 21.3%, respectively. Males experienced a significantly higher burden, with greater ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increasing with higher SDI levels. In China, male ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were over 2.8 times those of females, and the burden increased with age. In 2021, 31.4% of gout-related DALYs in China were attributed to high body mass index and 7.6% to kidney dysfunction. Between 1990 and 2021, the high body mass index-related burden of gout rose annually for both genders, while the kidney dysfunction-related gout burden remained stable. By 2050, the burden of gout in China is expected to continue increasing, with a slower rise in females and a decline in males after an initial increase. However, the overall burden will remain substantial. In comparison, the gout burden will be higher in the United States than in China. CONCLUSIONS Gout is becoming a significant health burden globally and in China, particularly among Chinese males and older individuals. With the aging population and lifestyle changes exacerbating the issue, effective strategies and measures are essential to prevent or reduce gout-related health issues.
Humans ; Gout/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; China/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death and long-term disability worldwide, including China. This study aimed to provide timely updates on stroke burden and stroke-related risk factors to help improve population-based prevention and control strategies. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021, incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were used to estimate stroke burden trend from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, China had 4.1 million incident stroke cases, 26.3 million prevalent stroke cases, 2.6 million stroke related deaths, and 53.2 million stroke related DALYs, compared to 11.9 million incident stroke cases, 93.8 million prevalent stroke cases, 7.3 million stroke related deaths, and 160.5 million stroke-related DALYs worldwide. In 2021, the top six risk factors contributing to stroke burden were high blood pressure, air pollution, tobacco consumption, dietary risk factors, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high fasting plasma glucose, both in China and worldwide. From 1990 to 2021, China had significant increases of incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate for stroke, with estimates of 100.6 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 87.2, 114.1)%, 102.9 (95% UI: 95.5, 110.9)%, 40.0 (95% UI: 14.9, 72.3)% and 15.7 (95% UI: -4.6, 41.2)%, respectively, while global incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate for total stroke showed relatively moderate increases or even decreases, with estimates of 15.0 (95% UI: 12.1,18.0)%, 25.8 (95% UI: 23.7, 28.0)%, -2.6 (95% UI: -10.6, 5.5)%, and -10.7 (95% UI: -17.7, -3.6)%, respectively. CONCLUSION Stroke remains a huge disease burden worldwide and in China, and compared to the worldwide China has a significantly higher burden of stroke.
Humans ; Stroke/etiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Female ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Male

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and is associated with a significant Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We analyzed the trends in PD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden in China, and compared them with global data. METHODS: Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, mortality, DALYs, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for PD were extracted from the GBD, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. We describe the epidemiology of PD at global and Chinese levels, analyze trends in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2021 by joinpoint regression models, and decompose PD burden according to population size, age structure, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS: GBD 2021 estimated 508,378 (95% UI: 430,499-592,748) incident cases of PD, 92,035 (95% UI: 75,908-108,133) deaths, and 2,159,514 (95% UI: 1,826,196-2,521,344) DALYs in China, with the higher age-standardized rate (ASR) in incidence, mortality and DALYs than the global levels. The DALY burden of PD in China increased slightly from 1990 to 2021, consistent with the global upward trend. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that the ASR of incidence in China increased faster than the global average, while the ASR of mortality decreased, with the fastest decline in 2004-2014. Decomposition analysis revealed that men and the middle sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile (32.82%) were responsible for the most significant DALYs, whose changes were primarily driven by population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of PD showed an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2021, which was primarily driven by population growth and aging. This study highlights the significant challenges in controlling and managing PD, including the increase in cases and gender differences, which may provide guidance for comprehensive strategies to address the changing profiles of PD in China.
Humans ; Parkinson Disease/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Male ; Incidence ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness ; Adolescent ; Pattern Analysis, Machine

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the disease burden of spinal fractures in China from 1990 to 2021 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), aiming to provide evidence for developing prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS: Epidemiological data on spinal fractures in China, the United States of America (USA), and globally were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were applied to analyze temporal trends. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were calculated, with comparisons of gender- and age-group disparities. RESULTS: In 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs of spinal fractures in China increased by 52.28%, 113.68%, and 106.98%, respectively, compared to 1990. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates rose by 11.80%, 16.11%, and 14.79%, respectively. The disease burden escalated significantly with age, peaking in individuals aged ≥75 years. Males exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and DALYs rates than females. Comparative analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate in China (4.19/100 000) was lower than that in globally (6.62/100 000) and USA (15.92/100 000). However, China showed an upward trend [annual average percentage change (AAPC)=0.19%], contrasting with a declining trend in the USA (AAPC=-0.08%). CONCLUSION The escalating disease burden of spinal fractures in China is closely linked to population aging, gender disparities, and insufficient targeted prevention policies. Future strategies should integrate age- and gender-specific interventions, including strengthened osteoporosis prevention, trauma risk control, and big data-driven precision measures, to mitigate this burden.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Spinal Fractures/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Adult ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged, 80 and over ; United States/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child