1.Hemichorea and myoclonus in Filipino patients with cerebral toxoplasmosis: A report of two cases.
Sta. Maria Mark Anthony J ; Roxas Artemio A
Philippine Journal of Neurology 2012;16(1):50-
BACKGROUND: This paper synthesizes two unique cases of an adult Filipino patient presenting with involuntary unilateral extremity movements which upon further workup revealed cerebral toxoplasmosis as their primary etiology, further revealing their immunocompromised states. To our best knowledge there is limited available data on cerebral toxoplasmosis in our local setting.
RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The Filipino population is not spared from the pervasive global upsurge of AIDS cases as well as HIV-related infections. The aim of this report is to document the clinical features and diagnostics of two patients with cerebral toxoplasmosis presenting with unilateral involuntary extremity movements to heighten the level of awareness of Filipino physicians on the need to further explore possible etiologies of common neurological signs and symptoms as well as document additional cases of HIV-related infection in our country.
CASE DESCRIPTION: The first case is a 30 year old male with no comorbidities who presented with fever and sudden onset of choreoathetoid movements of the left extremities. MRI revealed a rim enhancing nodule in the left supraorbital frontal lobe and in the middle cerebral peduncle. The second case is a 40 year old male, known hypertensive, initially diagnosed to have pulmonary tuberculosis, who presented with sudden onset of focal left arm myoclonic jerks. MRI revealed a rim enhancing cortical nodule on the right precentral gyrus. Both lesions were consistent with characteristics of toxoplasmosis. Both patients also showed positive serological titers for toxoplasmosis and had low CD4 T-cell count on flow cytometry. Both patients were treated with high dose trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and were further worked up for HIV-related infections.
CONCLUSION: Majority of Filipino patients are still not provided with the opportunity to be diagnosed and treated for HIV-related infections, with one reason being the low index of suspicion for such cases. There is still limited amount of data available locally regarding patients presenting with Cerebral Toxoplasmosis, and that common neurological signs and symptoms as presented in this report should provide the much needed enlightenment in a physician's clinical eye to entertain such etiologies.
Human ; Male ; Adult ; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ; Cd4-positive T-lymphocytes ; Cerebral Peduncle ; Hiv Infections ; Myoclonus ; Toxoplasmosis, Cerebral ; Trimethoprim, Sulfamethoxazole Drug Combination ; Tuberculosis, Pulmonary ; Chorea
2.Decisions based on health economic analysis
Michael Ian Sta Maria ; Jane Efflyn Lardizabal-Bunyi
The Filipino Family Physician 2022;60(1):63-69
Family and community practitioners sometimes will decide on what community-oriented interventions to propose and implement. The cost and effectiveness of such interventions are often debated by policy makers. A set of formal, quantitative methods for comparing alternative strategies in resource use and expected outcomes is known as health economic analysis. This article presents a tool to help family and community practitioners decide on the cost and effectiveness of such interventions.
Evidence-Based Practice
;
Economics, Medical
3.Three years after Typhoon Ondoy until Habagat rains: Prevalence of acute stress disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder among residents of Barangay Tumana, Marikina: A cross-sectional analytical study.
Danice Justine L LAÑ ; AS-STA. MARIA
The Philippine Journal of Psychiatry 2018;40(2):3-10
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of Acute Stress Disorder and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder among residents of Barangay Tumana, Marikina exposed to Typhoon Ondoy in September 2009 and Habagat rains in August 2012.
METHODOLOGY: The Acute Stress Disorder Scale (ASDS) and Impact of Events Scale-Revised (IESR) were administered to 212 subjects. Trauma history was also obtained. When screened positive for Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) and/or Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), a confirmatory diagnosis was done through psychiatric clinical interview.
RESULTS: The study showed a prevalence rate of 10% for ASD and 5% for PTSD. Co-morbid ASD and PTSD were seen in 4% of the subjects. Frequency and type of prior traumatic events were not significantly different among subjects who were positive or negative for ASD/PTSD diagnoses.
CONCLUSION: There was a significant prevalence of ASD/PTSD diagnoses among residents exposed to Typhoon Ondoy and Habagat, thus the need for developing a means of early detection and immediate therapeutic intervention in Filipino communities exposed to natural disasters.
Human ; Prevalence ; Stress Disorders, Traumatic, Acute ; Stress Disorders, Post-traumatic ; Cyclonic Storms
4.How to conduct and write a cohort study.
Michael Ian N. Sta. Maria ; Nicolas R. Gordo Jr.
The Filipino Family Physician 2024;62(1):42-50
Cohort studies is an epidemiologic study that follows a group of individuals who share a common characteristic at the start of the study to observe the emergence of outcomes. Cohort studies are classified based on the population characteristics from where they were drawn, the way the data collection occurred or if its open or closed. This allows the computation of the absolute risk or the incidence of an outcome. There are several advantages in conducting a cohort study, such as clarity of temporal relationship of the exposure and outcome, permits the computation of incidence, permits multiple effects of a single exposure, and avoids selection bias on admission. While there are advantages, there are also disadvantages in doing this study, such as it requires long follow-up, need of large sample size, maybe costly, and may make it difficult to argue causation due to the presence of confounding. The statistical test that can be used to analyze the results will depend on the type of variable used. Statistical test such as T-test, Chi square test, and Regression can be used. Writing the final report follows the STROBE guidelines.
Cohort Studies ; Epidemiologic Studies
5.A preliminary study on the mosquito repellent effect of tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) oil.
Gabriel Ma Teresita ; Teodosio Gracia B ; Dayrit Johannes F ; Sta. Ana Maria Lour
Journal of the Philippine Dermatological Society 2005;14(1):33-37
BACKGROUND: Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) are now considered as major health problems in the Philippines. N,N,-dietyl-3-toluamide (DEET) is recognized as the most effective against Aedes aegypti. However, the concern about its use have underscored the need to find a safer alternative repellent.
OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine and compare the repellent activity of tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) oil against Aedes aegypti with 7% DEET using a double-blind controlled experimental trial
METHODOLOGY: Twenty healthy subjects were allocated systematically by alternate assignment into three treatment groups (Control vs. Tea Tree oil, control vs. 7 percent DEET, Tea Tree oil vs DEET). All subjects were exposed to Aedes aegypti for 5 minutes every hour for 8 hours and the number of mosquitoes biting/landing were recorded and compared for each treatment group
RESULTS: Fifty percent tea tree oil has a repellent activity against Aedes aegypti and its efficacy is comparable to 7% DEET. Both treatments were equally effective in repelling mosquitoes for 7 hours. No cutaneous reactions to both repellents were noted
CONCLUSION: The efficacy of tea tree oil is comparable to 7% DEET and is recommended as an alternative natural mosquito repellent.
Human ; Aedes ; Deet ; Dengue ; Healthy Volunteers ; Insect Repellents ; Melaleuca ; Severe Dengue ; Tea ; Tea Tree Oil ; Trees
6.Effectiveness of health education interventions directed to patient, family, community on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in family and community practice: A meta-analysis.
Anna Guia O. LIMPOCO ; Roseanne Sharon C. BORROMEO ; Nenacia Ranali Nirena R. PALMA-MENDOZA ; Maria Catherine P. LIM ; Jardine S. STA ANA,
The Filipino Family Physician 2021;59(1):2-18
Background:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the contributors to the burden of non-communicable disease. Health education is a key component in COPD management. Effective health education interventions directed to patient, family and community are necessary to prevent exacerbations, emergency room visits, hospitalizations and improve quality of life for patients with COPD. The general objective of the study was to determine effectiveness of health education interventions directed to patient, family and community. Specifically, to determine the effect on the number of acute exacerbations, COPD related emergency room visits and hospitalizations, improvement in the quality of life and patient satisfaction.
Methods:
This study only included comparative clinical trials randomized or non- randomized, parallel or cross-over clinical trial design, cohort study involving humans as the participants. It also includes published studies in peer reviewed journals of PubMed, clinical trials registered Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the grey literature. There were no foreign language studies included relevant to this review. The non-comparative clinical trials, outcomes research or real-world data, animal experiments, reviews and case reports were excluded. The study population of reviewed literature has an established diagnosis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease based on the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria for diagnosis of COPD. Studies involving COPD patients who have other co morbidities were also included. The patients with COPD in the study were similar to patients consulting in family and community medicine practice clinics in the Philippines. Data synthesis was done separately for each type of intervention, i.e., patient directed, family directed, community directed health education intervention on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. Quantitative analysis was only possible for studies reporting similar outcomes and units of measures such as number of COPD-related hospitalizations and emergency room visits for health education intervention directed to patient and improvement in the quality-of-life scores for health education intervention directed to family and community. Narrative synthesis was done when it was not feasible to include studies to do pooled analysis due to any of the following reasons such as different outcomes and when outcomes not reported as means with standard deviation. The Review Manager 5 software was used in the analysis of the data. Sensitivity analysis was done by restricting the analysis to published studies and with low risk of bias.
Results:
A total of ten studies were included. Health education interventions directed to patient has no benefit in decreasing the number of COPD related emergency room visits (1.84, 95% CI 0.94,2.74) and insufficient evidence to decrease the number of COPD related hospitalizations (4.33,95%CI-4.69,13.34). Health education intervention directed to family have insufficient evidence to improve the quality of life among patients with COPD (0.35,95% CI -0.49,1.19). Community directed health education intervention have significantly improved the quality of life among patients with COPD (-1.95,95% CI -3.37, -0.53).The studies had low risk for bias in terms of random sequence generation, allocation concealment and blinding of outcome assessment except for one study that was a non-randomized trial (Tabari et al, 2018). The highest risk for bias across the studies was the non-blinding of the participants. The withdrawals or dropouts in one study exceeded 20%. Three studies reported non possibility of blinding the assessor (Marques et al 2015, Nguyen et al 2019, Tabari et al 2018). Furthermore, five studies (Gallefos, 2004, Hernandez et al 2015, Tabari et al 2018, Van Wetering et al 2010, Marques et al, 2015) did not report the use of intention to treat analysis
Discussion
Effective health education interventions directed to patient, family and community in conjunction with standard of care may decrease exacerbations, hospitalizations, emergency visits, better quality of life and patient satisfaction. The studies included for this review were heath education interventions solely directed to patient, to family and to community and not a combination of the interventions directed to patient and family, or patient and community, or patient and family and community. Overall, health education interventions are integrated in a patient centered family focused community-oriented care for COPD. Health education is just one of the components of the integrated care on COPD. Better control of COPD is likely due to the combined effects of the different care components. Hence, there is a need for more randomized controlled trials on health education interventions directed to patient and family. Inclusion of COPD related hospitalizations, emergency room visits, acute exacerbations as outcome measures in health education interventions directed to patient, family and community is useful to provide evidence in effectiveness of the intervention. The authors declare no financial or funding involvement in the development and implementation of this study. This protocol was registered with Research Grants Administration Office (RGAO) with Registration No. RGAO-2020-1276, Research Implementation Development Office (RIDO) and to the Research Committee of the Philippine Academy of Family Physicians. The study was given Certification of Exemption from Ethical Review by the University of the Philippines Research Ethics Board (UPMREB CODE: UPMREB 2020-783-EX
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive
7.Clinical practice guideline and pathway for the evaluation and management of children with diarrhea in family and community practice
Jane Eflyn L. Lardizabal-Bunyi ; Michael Angelo J. Arteza ; Irene Veron Chico ; Jesusa Evangelista ; Daisy M. Medina ; Michael Ian Sta. Maria ; Alfonso Syoei R. Yoshida ; Noel L. Espallardo
The Filipino Family Physician 2022;60(2):353-373
Background:
Diarrhea is among the common causes of morbidity and mortality in children. It is defined as the passage of three or more loose or liquid stools per day (or more frequent passage than is normal for the individual). It does not include frequent passing of formed stool and passing of loose, pasty stools by breastfed babies. It is usually a symptom of an infection in the intestinal tract, caused by variety of organisms, which is spread through contaminated food or drinking water, or from person-to-person as a result of poor hygiene. Diarrhea can last several days and can leave the body without the water and salts that are necessary for survival causing significant number of mortality and morbidity among children. At the level of primary care, diagnosis, management and treatment of food- and waterborne-diseases, which commonly present as diarrhea, lack the necessary protocols and standards, thus, the creation of this clinical pathway.
Objective:
The main goal of this clinical pathway was to provide guidance to family and community physicians, and other primary care physicians in managing acute diarrhea among immunocompetent pediatric patients.
Methods:
ADAPTE process was used in CPG development. Existing guidelines on acute diarrhea among pediatric patients were retrieved and appraised using the AGREE II tool. Recommendation statements from the guidelines that passed the AGREE II tool were reviewed. Recommendation statements that will help answer the clinical questions posed in the creation of the clinical pathway were adapted. For clinical questions were not answered by the available guideline recommendations, a de novo method was conducted. The adapted recommendation statements and the supporting summary of evidences were sent for external review prior to consensus development. Suggestions provided in both steps were discussed and incorporated in the final manuscript, as appropriate.
Key Recommendation Statements:
These key recommendation statements addressing the clinical assessment, diagnosis, interventions (pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic), and patient outcomes that are relevant in the outpatient or primary care setting in the Philippines were based on the summarized key evidences from the systematic review of literature conducted using the ADAPTE process. Clinical Assessment
Recommendation 1. A focused medical history that includes questions on duration, frequency, characteristics, associated symptoms, consumption of raw, ill-prepared, or rotten food; intake of antibiotics, contaminated food or water; and history of travel should be obtained. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 2. Physical examination should be done to assess the nutritional status, degree of dehydration, severity of disease, and presence of complications and comorbid conditions. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 3. Degree of dehydration should be classified into No Dehydration, Mild to Moderate Dehydration, or Severe Dehydration. (Weak recommendation, Moderate quality evidence)
Recommendation 4. Children with acute infectious diarrhea who have any of the following conditions should be admitted to the hospital: severe dehydration, inability to tolerate fluids orally, suspected electrolyte abnormalities, altered consciousness, abdominal distention, respiratory distress, pneumonia, meningitis/encephalitis, sepsis, moderate to severe malnutrition, suspected surgical condition, or conditions for safe follow-up and home management are not met. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Diagnostic Tests
Recommendation 5. Routine diagnostic tests are not necessary among children with acute diarrhea. (Strong recommendation, Low quality evidence)
Recommendation 6. Stool examination may only be requested if the patient present with moderate to severe condition, bloody diarrhea, or amoebiasis and parasitism is being considered at time of epidemic. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 7. Diagnostic tests may be requested if concomitant conditions like pneumonia, urinary tract infection, sepsis or meningitis are suspected; or if abdominal distension is observed post-hydration. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 8. Stool culture, serologic test, rapid diagnostic test, PCR determination and serum biomarkers are not recommended in family and community practice. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Pharmacologic Treatment
Recommendation 9. Reduced osmolarity oral rehydration solution (ORS), commercial or home-made is recommended to replace previous and ongoing losses. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 10. The volume and frequency of reduced osmolarity oral rehydration solution (ORS) should be dependent on patient’s age or weight, severity of dehydration and ongoing losses. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 11. Severe dehydration should be managed in the hospital with intravenous hydration. (Strong recommendation, High quality of evidence)
Recommendation 12. Routine empiric antibiotic treatment is not recommended in children with acute infectious diarrhea. (Strong recommendation, Very low quality evidence)
Recommendation 13. Antibiotic treatment may be given to children with Cholera, Shigella, typhoidal Salmonella, amoebiasis, and giardiasis. The choice of antibiotic must be guided by the local Antibiotic Surveillance Program. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 14. In general, antibiotic treatment should not be given in children with non-typhoidal Salmonella. It may be given in children with underlying conditions i.e., immunodeficiency, corticosteroid or immunosuppressive therapy. (Strong recommendation, Very low quality evidence)
Recommendation 15. Among children older than six months, zinc supplementation of 10-20 mg per day for 10-14 days may be offered to reduce the duration and severity of diarrhea, and recurrence in the next two to three months (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 16. Racecadotril may be offered to reduce ongoing loss of water and electrolytes. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 17. Probiotics may be offered to reduce the duration of diarrhea. Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG), Saccharomyces boulardii and Lactobacillus reuteri are strains with evidence of effectiveness. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 18. Anti-emetics and antidiarrheal drugs are generally not recommended because of their side-effects. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Non-pharmacologic Interventions
Recommendation 19. Among children with acute diarrhea, age-appropriate feeding should be continued. There is no need to modify or restrict diet. (Strong recommendation, Moderate quality of evidence)
Recommendation 20. Among infants with diarrhea, breastfeeding must be continued. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Recommendation 21. If diet was restricted because of frequent vomiting, early refeeding must be done. (Strong recommendation, Moderate quality evidence)
Recommendation 22. All members of the family must be encouraged regular hand washing with soap and water. (Strong recommendation, Moderate quality evidence)
Recommendation 23. Family members must observe proper food handling, have access to safe drinking water, and observe proper waste disposal. (Strong recommendation, Low quality evidence)
Recommendation 24. Community level intervention that encourages hand washing, proper food handling, appropriate waste disposal and ensuring safe drinking water must be done. (Strong recommendation, Low quality evidence)
Expected Patient Outcomes
Recommendation 25. After each encounter the patient or guardian must understand the nature of acute diarrhea, its management and potential complications. (Strong recommendation, Low quality evidence)
Recommendation 26. The management plan must be a mutual agreement between the family physician and the guardian. (Strong recommendation, Low quality evidence)
Recommendation 27. For the management of a child with acute diarrhea, the family physician must target for resolution of dehydration, resolution of diarrhea, prevention of relapse, hospitalization, complications and early detection of adverse events. (Strong recommendation, High quality evidence)
Dissemination and Implementation
This clinical pathway will be published in the “The Filipino Family Physician” journal, which is accessible in the PAFP journal website. PAFP’s Committee on Research will disseminate the clinical pathway through distribution to its subspecialty and affiliate societies, chapters, training programs, and primary care practitioners; and continuing development sessions of the PAFP. Monitoring of the uptake of the clinical pathway will be through the number of downloads at the website and requests for copies. This clinical pathway may be used as a guide by family and community physician and primary care physicians in a primary care setting. Tabular presentation of the clinical pathway was included as a tool for implementation. Monitoring of implementation will be via continuous quality improvements activities, which can be a self-initiated activity of the member as recommended in the Universal Healthcare, or as a chapter or group activity.
8.Clinical pathway for the diagnosis and management of patients with COVID-19 in family practice
Maria Victoria Concepcion P. Cruz ; Noel L. Espallardo ; Policarpio B. Joves Jr. ; Anna Guia O. Limpoco ; Jane Eflyn Lardizabal-Bunyi ; Nenacia Ranali Nirea R. Palma-Mendoza ; Michael Ian Sta Maria ; Jake Cortez ; Mark Bitong ; Johann Montemayor
The Filipino Family Physician 2021;59(2):128-145
Background:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide, causing a pandemic. The Philippines ranks 3rd in Southeast Asia with more than 15,000 confirmed cases, and a case fatality rate of 6.01%, close to the global average of 6.33%.
Objective:
This clinical pathway was developed to guide family and community physicians on the diagnosis and initial management of COVID-19 in terms of 1) clinical history and physical examination; 2) laboratory and ancillary procedures to be requested; 3) pharmacologic interventions; 4) non-pharmacologic interventions, and 5) patient outcomes to expect.
Method:
The PAFP Clinical Pathways Group reviewed the published medical literature to identify, summarize, and operationalize the evidence in clinical publication on the management of patients with COVID-19 in family and community practice.
Recommendations:
The recommendations are time-bound tasks on patient care processes, in terms of history and physical examination, laboratory tests, pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions. The recommendations are presented as a table and algorithm.
Implementation
At the clinic level, self-audit using the recommendations of this clinical pathway as the standard may be done. At the organizational level, the PAFP should establish a new model of quality improvement initiative where self-practice audits are included as part of the program.
COVID-19
;
Family Practice
9.06-5 Spa therapy and rheumatoid arthritis - Quality of life
Isabel SANTOS ; Oscar RIBEIRO ; Claudia RIBEIRO ; Pedro CANTISTA ; Carlos VASCONCELOS
The Journal of The Japanese Society of Balneology, Climatology and Physical Medicine 2014;77(5):471-472
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, systemic, inflammatory disorder of unknown etiology. It is characterized by symmetric, polyarticular pain, swelling, morning stiffness, and fatigue. RA has a variable course, often with periods of exacerbations and, less frequently, true remissions. Outcomes are also variable, ranging from the rarely seen remitting disease to severe disease that brings disability and in some patients premature death. Without treatment, the majority of patients will experience progressive joint damage and, in some patients, this results in significant disability within just a few years. Improvement in health related quality of life is one of the most important goals in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and therefore must be pursued as a crucial aim in clinical practice. This paper draws from 49 qualitative interviews conducted with RA patients, before starting a program of Spa Therapy and aims to get an overview of their main RA related difficulties, worries, and overall understanding of quality of life. Information on the patients’ physical function was also obtained by means of the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ). Patients present a mean HAQ score of 1.42 (SD=0.69). Main findings from the interviews highlight the importance given to being autonomous and feeling independent and healthy. In addition, underlying psychological problems (e.g. depressive signs; coping with progressive dependence) and concerns with social relationships (e.g. perceived support, loneliness) emerged as significant facets of living with the disease. Despite different treatments, RA still has many deleterious consequences which from the patients’ perspective include, among other, persistent pain, functional disability, fatigue, and depression. Along with treating RA signs and associated medical evolution, medical staff should consider and deeply understand the patients’ needs, expectations and main perceived determinants of their quality of life.
10.Predictive Models for Forecasting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases: Relevance to Public Health Services
Alvin O. Cayogyog ; Reynaldo O. Cuizon ; Felix C. Chavez Jr ; Randy A. Tudy
International Journal of Public Health Research 2024;14(no.1):1876-1887
Introduction:
The global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has continually jeopardized vulnerable populations encompassing children, youth, elders, and individuals with immunodeficiency and comorbidities.
Methods:
In recognizing the crucial role of predictive analytics in shaping public health decisions, this study utilizes a predictive design, drawing on official data from the Department of Health (DOH) in the Davao Region, Philippines, spanning 57 days from March 15 to May 10, 2020. By comparing the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the research aims to provide a scientific foundation for informed decision-making by public health authorities.
Result:
Analysis revealed that the SIR model emerged as the most effective in identifying trends and forecasting future cases. Despite both models indicating a substantial reduction in infection rates, caution is advised against discontinuing control and preventive measures due to the latent potential for another surge. The findings underscore the necessity for scientifically forecasted data to guide decision-makers in enhancing the responsiveness of public health services during similar and potentially worsening conditions.
Conclusions
Hence, this study contributes to the ongoing pandemic preparedness and responsiveness discourse. Its emphasis on predictive analytics, particularly the SIR model, offers valuable insights for authorities tasked with safeguarding public health. The significance lies in addressing the current situation in the Davao region and providing a template for future scenarios. As the world grapples with the unpredictable nature of infectious diseases, informed decision-making based on scientific forecasts becomes imperative for effective public health management.