Objective To establish an autoregression moving average (ARMA) model for predicting general traffic accidents and analyzing distributional difference on time series and frequency of common traffic accident so as to provide certain basis for a prediction model with better stability and accuracy. Methods The data of road traffic accidents in one newly developed zone of Chongqing in 2000-2005 were collected. The monthly distribution regularity of road traffic accidents was analyzed with descriptive epidemiologic method. ARMA model was set up for retrospective and prospective prediction. The predicted data were compared. Results Based on the characteristics of monthly distribution, the frequency of general traffic accidents in this area showed a cyclic fashion. The frequency of general traffic accidents predicted by ARMA model had over 80% of coincidence with the actual value. Conclusion The ARMA model can be used to predict the frequency of general traffic accidents, with better accuracy of short-term prediction than the long-term prediction.

Objective To explore the value and method of using carbon nanoparticles in endoscopic treatment of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.Method 74 cases were randomly divided into two groups,34 cases in experimental group which were injected with carbon nanoparticles,and 40 cases in the control group without any injection.All cases were analyzed in terms of the tumor size,the number of lymph nodes and parathyroid gland injury.Results All patients underwent the operation smoothly.The postoperative pathological specimens result showed there was no statistical difference of carcinoma size between the two groups.The number of lymph nodes dissected was 177 in the control group and 220 in the experimental group (the rate of lymph node black staining rate was 89％).In the experimental group,the average number of lymph node detected in each patient was 6.47±2.13,more than 4.42±1.91 in the control group.The number of parathyroid glands found in the experimental group was 3 and 11 in the control group,and the difference had no statistical significance.Postoperative temporary laryngeal recurrent nerve injury occurred to 2 cases in each group,and no statistical difference was found.Conclusion Using carbon nanoparticles in endoscopic treatment of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma can increase the detection rate of lymph node,and to some extent,reduce the parathyroid injury.It has a certain clinical significance,However,care should be taken to avoid contamination of the mirror field of view.

Objective: To evaluate and compare the surgery prognosis of the papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients who underwent conventional and endoscopic thyroidectomies via areola. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2017, 887 patients with PTC underwent thyroidectomy. The A group of 693 patients underwent traditional thyroidectomy, and B group of 194 patients underwent endoscopic thyroidectomy. Clinicopathologic characteristics, surgical methods, pathological features and complications were analyzed and compared between two groups. Results: The mean age of A group was older than B group: (45.2 ± 11.5) years vs. (34.9 ± 9.4) years, P<0.01. The drainamount and drain maintenance in B group were significantly higher than those in A group (P<0.01). The operative methods in two group had significant difference (P<0.01). The patients in B group were successful in operation and no one transferred to open operation. The tumor size in the A group was larger than that in B group, and more bilateral multifocal tumors were in A group (P<0.01). The number of lymph nodes dissection in A group was more than that in B group (P<0.01). There was no significant difference in the postoperative complications (P > 0.05). Conclusions The results show that patients with PTC who underwent conventional and endoscopic thyroidectomies via areola have similar surgical prognosis.Therefore, choosing the appropriate cases for endoscopic thyroidectomy via breast areola approach may be regarded as an alternative surgical technique to conventional thyroidectomy which has the oncological safety and cosmetic results.