Introduction: Supracondylar fracture of the humerus is the most common fracture around the elbow in children. Pinning with Kirschner wires (K-wires) after open or closed reduction is generally accepted as the primary treatment modality. However, it comes with the risk of persistent instability and if the K-wire is not inserted properly, it may cause displacement and varus deformity. We present our two-year experience with a new technique of lateral external fixation and K-wiring of the humeral supracondylar fracture. Materials and Methods: A total of seven children with irreducible Gartland Type III supracondylar humeral fracture were treated with closed reduction and lateral external fixation and lateral Kirschner wiring. Patients with ipsilateral radial or ulnar fracture, open fracture and presence of neurovascular impairment pre-operatively were excluded. All the patients were followed up at one, three and six weeks and three and six months. The final outcomes were assessed based on Flynn's criteria. Results: All the patients achieved satisfactory outcomes in terms of cosmetic and functional aspects. All patients except one (85.5%) regained excellent and good cosmetic and functional status. One patient (14.3%) sustained pin site infection which resolved with oral antibiotic (CheckettsOtterburn grade 2). There was no neurological deficit involving the ulnar nerve and radial nerve. Conclusion: The introduction of lateral external fixation and lateral percutaneous pinning provide a promising alternative method for the treatment of humeral supracondylar fracture. This study demonstrates that it has satisfactory cosmetic and functional outcomes with no increased risk of complications compared to percutaneous pinning.
Humeral Fractures

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak. METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison. RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario). CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.