Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

The incidence of gastrointestinal dysfunction is high in critically ill patients with enteral nutrition. This article describes the concepts related to gastrointestinal dysfunction, risk factors, monitoring methods and enteral nutrition strategies based on the monitoring of gastrointestinal dysfunction, with a view to providing reference for improving the quality of enteral nutrition in critically ill patients.

Background/Aims: Existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models are derived mainly from pretreatment or early on-treatment parameters. We reassessed the dynamic changes in the performance of 17 HCC models in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) during long-term antiviral therapy (AVT). Methods: Among 987 CHB patients administered long-term entecavir therapy, 660 patients had 8 years of follow-up data. Model scores were calculated using on-treatment values at 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, and 5 years of AVT to predict threeyear HCC occurrence. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). The original model cutoffs to distinguish different levels of HCC risk were evaluated by the log-rank test. Results: The AUROCs of the 17 HCC models varied from 0.51 to 0.78 when using on-treatment scores from years 2.5 to 5. Models with a cirrhosis variable showed numerically higher AUROCs (pooled at 0.65–0.73 for treated, untreated, or mixed treatment models) than models without (treated or mixed models: 0.61–0.68; untreated models: 0.51–0.59). Stratification into low, intermediate, and high-risk levels using the original cutoff values could no longer reflect the true HCC incidence using scores after 3.5 years of AVT for models without cirrhosis and after 4 years of AVT for models with cirrhosis. Conclusions The performance of existing HCC prediction models, especially models without the cirrhosis variable, decreased in CHB patients on long-term AVT. The optimization of existing models or the development of novel models for better HCC prediction during long-term AVT is warranted.

Objective:To analyze the statuses of CD8 + T cell exhaustion in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection and co-infection. Methods:A total of 87 patients infected with HIV and/or MTB in Wuxi Fifth People′s Hospital and Taicang First People′s Hospital from August 2019 to January 2020 were enrolled, including 18 cases of HIV infection, 34 cases of active tuberculosis (ATB), 19 cases of latent tuberculosis infection (LTB), seven cases of HIV coinfected with ATB, and nine cases of HIV coinfected with LTB. Another 11 healthy controls were also included. The peripheral blood of all subjects was collected for cell surface staining and intracellular cytokine staining, and flow cytometry was used to detect the expressions of activation molecules including CD62 ligand, CD44 and CD127, the transcription factor like eomesodermin (EOMES), T cell factor 1 (TCF-1), T-box expressed in T cells (T-bet), B lymphocyte-induced maturation protein 1 (Blimp-1), inhibitory receptors including programmed death-1 (PD-1) and T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 3 (Tim-3) on CD8 + T cells. Mann-Whitney U test was used for statistical analysis. Results:The mean fluorescence intensities (MFIs) of the activation molecules CD62 ligand and CD44 in the HIV group were lower than those in the healthy control group, while the inhibitory receptor Tim-3 was higher than that in the healthy control group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=31.00, 1.00 and 0.00, respectively, all P<0.010). The MFIs of CD62 ligand and CD44 in HIV coinfected with LTB group were lower than those in LTB group, while PD-1 and Tim-3 were higher than those in LTB group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=4.00, 26.00, 6.00 and 3.00, respectively, all P<0.010). The MFIs of CD62 ligand, CD44 and CD127 in HIV coinfected with ATB group were lower than those in ATB group, while PD-1 and Tim-3 were higher than those in ATB group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=9.00, 40.00, 45.50, 28.00 and 7.00, respectively, all P<0.010). The proportion of terminal effector CD8 + T cells in the HIV group was higher than that in the healthy control group, while the proportion of central memory CD8 + T cells was lower than that in the healthy control group. The differences were both statistically significant ( U=15.00 and 33.00, respectively, both P<0.010). The proportion of terminal effector CD8 + T cells in the HIV coinfected with LTB group was higher than the LTB group, while the proportion of central memory CD8 + T cells was lower than that in the LTB group. The differences were both statistically significant ( U=7.00 and 20.00, respectively, both P<0.010). The proportion of terminal effector CD8 + T cells in the HIV coinfected with ATB group was higher than that in ATB group, while the proportion of central memory CD8 + T cells was lower than that in ATB group. The differences were statistically significant (both U=7.00, P<0.001). The expression level of PD-1 + Tim-3 + T cells in HIV group was higher than that in healthy control group, that in HIV coinfected with LTB group was higher than that in LTB group, and that in HIV coinfected with ATB group was higher than that in ATB group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=21.00, 6.00 and 5.50, respectively, all P<0.001). The MFI of transcription factors EOMES and TCF-1 in HIV coinfected with LTB group were lower than those in HIV group, while the MFI of T-bet was higher than that in HIV group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=3.00, 4.00 and 9.00, respectively, all P<0.001). The MFI of EOMES and TCF-1 in HIV coinfected with ATB group were lower than those in HIV group, while the MFI of T-bet and Blimp-1 were higher than those in the HIV group. The differences were all statistically significant ( U=11.00, 14.00, 7.00 and 22.00, respectively, all P<0.050). Conclusions:MTB co-infected with HIV patients present lower immune function and a higher degree of CD8 + T cell exhaustion. In addition, HIV patients co-infected with LTB and ATB have a higher degree of CD8 + T cell exhaustion than HIV infected patients.

Objective:Our study aims to determine histological regression and clinical improvement after long-term antiviral therapy in hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis patients.Methods:Treatment-na?ve chronic hepatitis B patients with histologically or clinically diagnosed liver cirrhosis were enrolled. Liver biopsies were performed after 5 years entecavir-based antiviral treatment. Patients were followed up every 6 months. Cirrhosis regression was evaluated based on Metavir system and P-I-R score. Clinical improvement was evaluated before and after the long-term treatment. Kruskal Wallis test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used for continuous variables, Fisher's exact test was used for categorical variables and multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis.Results:Totals of 73 patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis were enrolled. Among them, 30 (41.1%) patients were biopsy proved liver cirrhosis and the remaining 43 (58.9%) cirrhotic patients were diagnosed by clinical features. Based on Metavir system and P-I-R score, 72.6% (53/73) patients attained histological regression. Furthermore, 30.1% (22/73) were defined as significant regression (Metavir decrease ≥2 stage), 42.5% (31/73) were mild regression (Metavir decrease 1 stage or predominantly regressive by P-I-R system if still cirrhosis after treatment) and 27.4% (20/73) were the non-regression. Compared to levels of clinical characteristics at baseline, HBV DNA, ALT, AST, liver stiffness(decreased from 12.7 to 6.4 kPa in significant regression, from 18.1 to 7.3 kPa in mild regression and from 21.4 to 11.2 kPa in non-regression)and Ishak-HAI score significantly decreased after 5 years of anti-HBV treatment, while serum levels of platelets and albumin improved remarkably ( P<0.05). In multivariate analysis, only the pre-treatment liver stiffness level was associated with significant regression ( OR=0.887, 95% CI: 0.802-0.981, P=0.020). Conclusions:After long-term antiviral therapy, patients with HBV-related cirrhosis are easily to attain improvements in clinical parameters, while a certain percentage of these patients still cannot achieve histological reversal.

Objective:To clarify the effect and related factors of antiviral therapy on the change of esophageal varices in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis.Methods:Fifty-two cases with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis who underwent endoscopy before and after antiviral therapy were selected from prospective cohorts. Patients were divided into three groups: no, mild, and moderate-severe based on the degree of esophageal varices. The changes in the severity of esophageal varices in each group were compared after antiviral therapy. Clinical characteristics (platelet, liver and kidney function, liver stiffness, and virological response) of patients with different regressions were analyzed. Measurement data were analyzed by independent sample t-test, one-way ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis H test, and Chi-Square test was used for count data.Results:All patients received entecavir-based antiviral therapy. The median treatment time was 3.1 (2.5-4.4) years. The proportion of patients without esophageal varices increased from 30.8% to 51.9%, the proportion of mild esophageal varices decreased from 40.4% to 30.8%, and the proportion of patients with moderate-to-severe esophageal varices decreased from 28.8% to 17.3% ( χ2=14.067, P=0.001). A total of 40.4% of patients had esophageal varices regression, and 13.5% had esophageal varices progression. The progression rate was significantly higher in patients with moderate-severe esophageal varices than patients with mild and no esophageal varices ( χ2=28.126, P<0.001), and 60.0% of patients with moderate-severe esophageal varices still remained in moderate-severe state after antiviral treatment. Baseline platelet count and 5-year mean change rates were significantly lower in patients with progressive moderate-to-severe esophageal varices than in those without progression (+3.3% vs. +34.1%, Z=7.00, P=0.027). Conclusion:After effective antiviral treatment, 40.4% of patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis combined with esophageal varices has obtained esophageal varices regression, but those with moderate to severe esophageal varices still have a considerable risk of progression while receiving mono antiviral treatment only. Thrombocytopenia and without significant improving are the clinical signs of progression risk after receiving antiviral treatment.

Objective: To study the preventive effect of Timosaponin BⅡ (T-BⅡ) -loaded temperature/ion-sensitive nasal in situ hydrogels (ISGs) on Alzheimer's disease (AD), its preparation technology, characteristics and in vivo effects were evaluated.Methods: The morphological and rheological properties were evaluated. The preventive effects of T-BⅡ ISG on scopolamine-induced AD in mice were determined with the index of muscarinicreceptor 1 (M1) expression and pathological changes. Results: Results revealed that T-BⅡ ISG significantly increased the content of M1 choline receptors in the hippocampus of mice and ameliorated the damage incurred to the hippocampal cornu ammonis 1 (CA1) area. Conclusion: T-BⅡ ISGs is a reasonable and convenient method of exerting an obvious preventive effect on mice with AD induced by scopolamine. This, thereby, lays forth a new treatment option for preventing AD.

Objective:To establish a disease risk prediction model for the newborn screening system of inherited metabolic diseases by artificial intelligence technology.Methods:This was a retrospectively study. Newborn screening data ( n=5 907 547) from February 2010 to May 2019 from 31 hospitals in China and verified data ( n=3 028) from 34 hospitals of the same period were collected to establish the artificial intelligence model for the prediction of inherited metabolic diseases in neonates. The validity of the artificial intelligence disease risk prediction model was verified by 360 814 newborns ' screening data from January 2018 to September 2018 through a single-blind experiment. The effectiveness of the artificial intelligence disease risk prediction model was verified by comparing the detection rate of clinically confirmed cases, the positive rate of initial screening and the positive predictive value between the clinicians and the artificial intelligence prediction model of inherited metabolic diseases. Results:A total of 3 665 697 newborns ' screening data were collected including 3 019 cases ' positive data to establish the 16 artificial intelligence models for 32 inherited metabolic diseases. The single-blind experiment ( n=360 814) showed that 45 clinically diagnosed infants were detected by both artificial intelligence model and clinicians. A total of 2 684 cases were positive in tandem mass spectrometry screening and 1 694 cases were with high risk in artificial intelligence prediction model of inherited metabolic diseases, with the positive rates of tandem 0.74% (2 684/360 814)and 0.46% (1 694/360 814), respectively. Compared to clinicians, the positive rate of newborns was reduced by 36.89% (990/2 684) after the application of the artificial intelligence model, and the positive predictive values of clinicians and artificial intelligence prediction model of inherited metabolic diseases were 1.68% (45/2 684) and 2.66% (45/1 694) respectively. Conclusion:An accurate, fast, and the lower false positive rate auxiliary diagnosis system for neonatal inherited metabolic diseases by artificial intelligence technology has been established, which may have an important clinical value.

Objective:To investigate the diagnostic values of interleukin-22 (IL-22), interferon-γ(IFN-γ)and macrophage migration inhibition factor (MIF) in pleural effusion for tuberculosis pleurisy.Methods:From April 2018 to May 2019, a total of 77 patients including 45 cases of tuberculous pleurisy, 19 cases of malignant pleurisy, 13 cases of parapneumonia and 13 cases of healthy control in Wuxi Fifth People′s Hospital were enrolled. The levels of IL-22, IFN-γ and MIF in plasma and pleural effusion were detected by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Mann-Whitney U test was used for statistical analysis.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic values of IL-22, IFN-γ and MIF for tuberculous pleurisy. Results:The median levels of IL-22, IFN-γ, MIF and adenosine deaminase in 45 cases with pleural effusion in tuberculosis pleurisy group were 396.8 ng/L, 2 200.0 ng/L, 241.3 μg/L and 70.8 U/L, respectively, which were all significantly higher than 32 cases with non-tuberculosis pleurisy group, including 19 cases with malignant pleurisy and 13 cases with parapneumonia (52.8 ng/L, 232.3 ng/L, 179.6 μg/L and 17.0 U/L, respectively). The differences were all statistically significant ( U=179.000, 118.500, 287.000, 162.000, respectively, all P<0.05). The median levels of IL-22 and IFN-γ in plasma of tuberculosis pleurisy group were 20.0 ng/L and 45.9 ng/L, respectively, which were both higher than healthy control group (14.3 ng/L and 33.4 ng/L, respectively). The level of MIF was 96.2 μg/L, which was lower than healthy control (159.5 μg/L). The differences were all statistically significant ( U=74.000, 13.000 and 73.000, respectively, all P<0.05). The areas under ROC curve (AUC) of IL-22, IFN-γ and MIF in pleural effusion for the diagnosis of tuberculosis pleurisy were 0.876, 0.917 and 0.682, respectively.The sensitivities were 93.75%, 100.00% and 63.64%, respectively; the specificities were 82.22%, 91.11% and 65.85%, respectively. The median levels of IL-22 and IFN-γ in plasma in tuberculosis pleurisy group at two months of follow-up after anti-tuberculosis therapy were 16.0 ng/L and 33.9 ng/L, respectively, which were both lower than baseline (20.0 ng/L and 44.7 ng/L, respectively). The differences were both statistically significant ( U=2.156 and 2.221, respectively, both P<0.05). Conclusion:IFN-γ and IL-22 in pleural effusion could be used as effective indicators to identify tuberculous pleurisy, and the dynamic monitoring of IL-22 in patients′plasma could be an important biomarker in evaluating the efficacy of anti-tuberculosis treatment.