1.Survival analysis of kidney cancer in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016
Lulu DING ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Yuanyou XU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Jian ZHU
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2023;35(1):48-52
Objective:
To investigate the survival rate and changing trends of kidney cancer patients in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016, so as to provide insights into kidney cancer control.
Methods:
Data pertaining to the incidence of kidney cancer in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016 were captured from the Qidong Municipal Cancer Registration System, and the final follow-up period was December 31, 2021. The observed survival rate, relative survival rate and standardized relative survival rate of kidney cancer were calculated to analyze the survival of kidney cancer, and the trends in survival were analyzed among kidney cancer patients from 1972 to 2016 using annual percent change (APC).
Results:
A total of 554 kidney cancer patients were reported in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016. The 1-, 3- and 5-year observed survival rates, relative survival rates and standardized relative survival rates were 62.27%, 50.54% and 44.04%; 64.31%, 55.71% and 51.93%; and 61.71%, 51.90%, and 51.68%, respectively. The 5-year observed survival rate, relative survival rate and standardized relative survival rate of kidney cancer appeared a tendency towards a rise in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016, with APC of 2.83% (t=4.303, P=0.004), 2.82% (t=3.978, P=0.005) and 3.96% (t=5.898, P=0.001), and the 5-year relative survival rate of kidney cancer was comparable between men and women (53.05% vs. 50.40%; χ2=4.872, P=0.676). There was an age-specific 5-year relative survival rate of kidney cancer (χ2=35.144, P<0.001), with the greatest among patients at ages of 35 to 44 years (64.49%) and the lowest at ages of 75 years and older (30.11%).
Conclusion
The 5-year survival rate of kidney cancer cases appeared a tendency towards a rise in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016. Further specific interventions, depending on age, are needed for management of kidney cancer.
2.Long-term trend of survival rate of malignant tumors in the elderly over sixty years old
Jian ZHU ; Juan YANG ; Jun WANG ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Haizhen CHEN ; Jianguo CHEN
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2022;41(11):1371-1377
Objective:To analyze the survival rate of malignant tumor in the elderly over 60 years old in Qidong city from 1972 to 2016, and to provide basis for prognosis evaluation and prevention.Methods:Based on the data of 66 386 patients with malignant tumor in the elderly over 60 years old in the Qidong cancer registration and reporting system, the survival outcome was tracked by the method of active follow-up and passive follow-up.All of these data were then analyzed by stratification of sex, age, tumor site and hospital level.Results:During the period of 1972 to 2016, the total number of patients with malignant tumors in the elderly were 66 386 cases, accounting for 56.66% of patients in all age groups.The observed survival rate(OSR)of 5 and 10 years were 14.52% and 9.53% and relative survival rate(RSR)of 5 and 10 years were 19.76% and 18.92%, respectively, in the elderly in Qidong.The 5-year RSR was 16.98% for males and 23.91% for females, being a statistically significant( χ2=339.83, P<0.001). The 5-year RSRs of elderly patients in males and females increased from 7.53% and 15.83% in 1972-1976 to 28.06% and 39.01% in 2012-2016, respectively.The 5-year RSR of 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85 years old and over were 22.84%, 20.53%, 17.74%, 18.30%, 18.02% and 14.06%, respectively, with a statistically significant difference( χ2=694.27, P<0.001). Among the top 10 major malignancies, the ranks of 5-year RSR from high to low were breast cancer, prostate cancer, bladder cancer, colorectal cancer, malignant lymphoma, gastric cancer, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer, respectively.A comparison between 2002--2016 and 1972--1986 showed that the increased rank of absolute values of RSR from highest to lowest were prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, female breast cancer, bladder cancer, gastric cancer, malignant lymphoma, liver cancer, esophageal cancer, lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer, respectively.The 5-year RSR of patients diagnosed in the district / township hospitals, county hospitals, city-level 3A hospitals and provincial-level 3A hospitals were 13.97%, 23.71%, 26.12% and 28.55%, respectively, with a statistically significant difference( χ2=841.93, P<0.001). In the 45 years, the average annual percentage change(AAPC)ratio of 5-year OSR was 3.88%( t=6.75, P<0.001), and the 5-year RSR was 3.69%( t=7.44, P=0.001); the AAPC of the 5-year RSR was 3.91%( t=9.66, P<0.001)in males and 3.42%( t=6.08, P=0.001)in females.The AAPC ratio of 5-year RSR in each age group were 4.08% for 60-64 years, 4.18% for 65-69 years, 3.91% for 70-74 years, 3.12% for 75-79 years, 3.81% for 80-84 years, 0.51% for 85 years old and over, respectively.Except for age group of 85 years old and over( P=0.615), significant rising trends were observed in all age groups( P<0.01). Conclusions:Malignant tumors in the elderly have become the major cancer burden in Qidong, and there are significant gender and age differences.The overall survival rate in elderly patients with malignant tumors has been significantly improved in the past 45 years, which may be related to the improvement in the level of diagnosis and treatment and the service capacity of hospitals.
3.Long-term trend analysis of survival rate for pancreas cancer in Qidong County, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016
Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Chunsun FAN ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU
Chinese Journal of Pancreatology 2022;22(5):353-358
Objective:To analyze the survival of pancreatic cancer cases in Qidong County, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016, and provide a basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention of pancreatic cancer.Methods:Data from a total of 4 341 registered pancreatic cancer patients in Tumor Registry of Qidong from January 1972 to December 2016 were selected, and all the patients were followed up until December 31, 2021. 1-, 3- and 5-year observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were calculated and tested by Hakulinen likelihood ratio test method using SURV (3.01) software. Age-standardized relative survival rate (ARSR) was calculated according to the International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS). Joinpoint (4.7.0.0) software was used to conduct the annual percentage change (APC) of pancreas cancer survival rate.Results:1-, 3- and 5-year OSR of pancreatic cancer were 13.82%, 5.87% and 4.70%, and 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR were 14.50%, 6.80% and 6.02%, respectively. 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR increased from 11.76%, 4.84% and 3.29% in 1972—1976 to 18.80%, 7.39% and 6.49% in 2012—2016. The uptrends of RSR were statistically significant (χ 2=59.84, P<0.001). 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR for male were 14.31%, 6.40% and 5.82%, and 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR for female were 14.74%, 7.28% and 6.26%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference on RSR between male and female (χ 2=6.68, P=0.463). The 5-year RSR for the age group of 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years old were 8.14%, 6.74%, 4.69% and 5.24%, respectively, and the survival rate was decreased with age. There was a statistically significant difference on RSR among different age groups (χ 2=19.52, P=0.012). 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR of pancreas cancer were 14.67%, 6.84% and 6.04%. For male, 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR were 14.36%, 6.42% and 5.79%, and for female were 15.25%, 7.55% and 6.47%, respectively. Period trend analysis showed that the APC of 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR was 0.91% ( t=1.94, P=0.094), -0.22% ( t=-0.30, P=0.774) and -0.77% ( t=-0.95, P=0.374) from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong. The APC of 5-year ARSR in male and female were -1.50% ( t=-1.31, P=0.232) and 1.11% ( t=0.37, P=0.722); there were no statistically significant increase or decrease for both male and female among ARSR in nine periods (5 years as a period). The APC of 5-year RSR among 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and ≥75 years old were 2.46% ( t=0.57, P=0.588), 3.16% ( t=0.87, P=0.413), 0.95% ( t=0.26, P=0.805) and -2.56% ( t=-2.61, P=0.035), respectively. Except for ≥75 years old age group who had a statistically significant downward trend, there were no statistically significant upward trend in the other age groups. Conclusions:The overall survival rate of pancreatic cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 has been at a low level, and it is necessary to introduce a standardized multi-disciplinary treatment mode to improve treatment efficacy and survival rate.
4.Trend analysis of diabetes deaths and prediction of life expectancy without causes in Qidong City in 1990-2019
Yuanyou XU ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Jianguo CHEN ; Jian ZHU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2022;33(4):28-32
Objective To study and analyze the trend of diabetes death and the impact of life expectancy in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a basis for formulating health policies. Methods Based on the surveillance data of deaths from all causes in Qidong City and the population data over the years from 1990 to 2019, the residents' diabetes mortality and temporal trends were analyzed. Joinpoint4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate relevant indicators including crude mortality (CR), age-standardized rates by China population (CASR), annual percentage change (APC), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR). Results The CR of diabetes in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 was 15.12/100 000, with a rate of 12.72/100 000 in males and a rate of 17.45/100 000 in females. The total CASR was 7.58/100 000, including 6.47/100 000 for males and 8.59/100 000 for females. Trend analysis showed that the APC of CR and CASR was 9.31% and 5.26% in males, and 8.12% and 4.40% in females, respectively. The APC of CR and CASR in the 45-64 years old group was 2.59% and 4.85%, respectively. The APC of CR and CASR in the 65 years old and above group was 7.20% and 9.79%, respectively. There were statistically significant differences except for the 15-44 years old group. The life expectancy of residents in Qidong City rose from 73.95 years in 1990 to 82.91 years in 2019 (APC=0.38, P<0.001), and life expectancy without diabetes rose from 74.01 years in 1990 to 83.39 years in 2019 (APC=0.39, P<0.001). Conclusion In the past 30 years, the diabetes mortality and life loss of residents in Qidong City have been increasing year by year and the trend is obvious. Women's diabetes mortality and life loss are higher than those in men. The level and increase rate of diabetes mortality in the high age group are higher than those in the low age group. It is necessary to carry out key intervention for the corresponding population.