1.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.
2.Empirical study of input, output, outcome and impact of community-based rehabilitation stations
Xiayao CHEN ; Ying DONG ; Xue DONG ; Zhongxiang MI ; Jun CHENG ; Aimin ZHANG ; Didi LU ; Jun WANG ; Jude LIU ; Qianmo AN ; Hui GUO ; Xiaochen LIU ; Zefeng YU
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2026;32(1):83-89
ObjectiveTo investigate the present situation of input, output, outcome and impact of all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia in China, and analyze how the input predict the output, outcome and impact. MethodsFrom March 1st to April 30th, 2025, a questionnaire survey was conducted on all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia, covering four dimensions: input, output, outcome and impact. A total of 1 365 questionnaires were distributed. The input included four items: laws and policies, human resources, equipment and facilities, and rehabilitation information management. The output included two items: technical paths and benefits/effectiveness. The outcome included three items: coverage rates, rehabilitation interventions and functional results. The impact included two items: health and sustainability. Each item contained several questions, all of which were described in a positive way. Each question was scored from one to five. A lower score indicated that the situation of the community-based rehabilitation station was more in line with the content described in the question. Regression analysis was performed using the total score of each item of input dimension as independent variables, and the total scores of the output, outcome and impact dimensions as dependent variables. ResultsA total of 1 262 valid questionnaires were collected. The mean values of input, output, outcome and impact of community-based rehabilitation stations were 1.827 to 1.904, with coefficient of variation of 45.892% to 49.239%. The regression analysis showed that, rehabilitation information management, human resources, and laws and policies significantly predicted the output dimension (R² = 0.910, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, all four items in the input dimension predicted both the outcome (R² = 0.850, P < 0.001) and impact dimensions (R² = 0.833, P < 0.001). ConclusionInput, output, outcome and impact of the community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia were generally in line with the content of the questions, although some imbalances were observed. Additionally, the input of community-based rehabilitation stations could significantly predict their output, outcome and impact.
3.Efficacy and Application Characteristics of Cold Chinese Medicines Based on Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020 Edition)
Lu YUE ; Yilong HU ; Jingying YANG ; Xiangxiang WU ; Mingsan MIAO ; Ming BAI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(4):241-248
ObjectiveTo provide a reference for the rational clinical use of cold Chinese medicines by sorting and analyzing their properties, flavors, meridian tropism, primary therapeutic indications, methods of administration, dosages, and precautions as recorded in the 2020 edition of Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China (Chinese Pharmacopoeia). MethodsCold Chinese medicines for internal and external use included in the 2020 edition of Chinese Pharmacopoeia were entered one by one, and their efficacy, properties, flavors, meridian tropism, methods of administration, dosages, and usage precautions were statistically classified and summarized to guide clinical medication use. ResultsA total of 259 cold Chinese medicines for internal use were included and categorized into 18 efficacy groups, mainly comprising heat-clearing drugs, water-excreting and dampness-draining drugs, and phlegm-resolving, cough- and asthma-relieving drugs. Their predominant flavors were bitter, sweet, and pungent, and they primarily entered the liver, lung, and stomach meridians. The main methods of administration included decocting first, grinding into powder for oral use, or preparing into pills or powders, with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. A total of 83 cold Chinese medicines for external use were included, involving 16 efficacy categories. Their main flavors were bitter, sweet, and pungent, primarily entering the liver, lung, and large intestine meridians. The main external application methods were grinding into powder for topical use or preparing decoctions for fumigation and washing, with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. Whether for internal or external use, cold Chinese medicines should be used with caution or contraindicated in pregnant women. ConclusionThe cold Chinese medicines included in the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia are mainly suitable for patients with carbuncles, swellings, and coughs. However, in clinical practice, it is necessary to strictly follow the principles of syndrome differentiation and treatment, pay attention to administration methods and dosages, and use cold medicines rationally and effectively to improve clinical efficacy.
4.Progress on antisense oligonucleotide in the field of antibacterial therapy
Jia LI ; Xiao-lu HAN ; Shi-yu SONG ; Jin-tao LIN ; Zhi-qiang TANG ; Zeng-ming WANG ; Liang XU ; Ai-ping ZHENG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2025;60(2):337-347
With the widespread use of antibiotics, drug-resistant bacterial infections have become a significant threat to human health. Finding new antibacterial strategies that can effectively control drug-resistant bacterial infections has become an urgent task. Unlike small molecule drugs that target bacterial proteins, antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) can target genes related to bacterial resistance, pathogenesis, growth, reproduction and biofilm formation. By regulating the expression of these genes, ASO can inhibit or kill bacteria, providing a novel approach for the development of antibacterial drugs. To overcome the challenge of delivering antisense oligonucleotide into bacterial cells, various drug delivery systems have been applied in this field, including cell-penetrating peptides, lipid nanoparticles and inorganic nanoparticles, which have injected new momentum into the development of antisense oligonucleotide in the antibacterial realm. This review summarizes the current development of small nucleic acid drugs, the antibacterial mechanisms, targets, sequences and delivery vectors of antisense oligonucleotide, providing a reference for the research and development of antisense oligonucleotide in the treatment of bacterial infections.
5.Role of amino acid metabolism in autoimmune hepatitis and related therapeutic targets
Peipei GUO ; Yang XU ; Jiaqi SHI ; Yang WU ; Lixia LU ; Bin LI ; Xiaohui YU
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(3):547-551
Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear, but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system, while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH, in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.
6.Individualized treatment and pharmaceutical care for breast cancer complicated with chronic kidney disease
Lu YU ; Xudong WU ; Ming ZHANG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(7):853-857
OBJECTIVE To provide a reference for individualized treatment and pharmaceutical care for patients with breast cancer complicated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS Clinical pharmacists participated in the anti-tumor treatment and pharmaceutical care for a breast cancer patient with CKD. Clinical pharmacists reviewed guidelines and literature to assist the clinical physician in formulating the initial neoadjuvant treatment plan (docetaxel+trastuzumab+paltuzumab) and provided monitoring recommendations for potential adverse drug reactions, such as vomiting, myelosuppression, renal impairment, cardiotoxicity. In response to the patient’s acute kidney injury after treatment, clinical pharmacists assisted the physician in analyzing the cause of the adverse reaction through causality assessment. Taking into account the patient’s preferences, docetaxel was substituted with paclitaxel (which did not require dose adjustment based on renal function). The clinical pharmacists collaborated with the physician to establish a postoperative targeted therapy regimen (trastuzumab+pertuzumab). Taking into account the patient’s positive estrogen receptor status, the clinical pharmacists recommended to initiate regular anastrozole administration after the completion of radiotherapy and undergo periodic bone density assessments. RESULTS The clinical physician accepted the suggestions from the clinical pharmacists. The patient successfully completed preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy and postoperative targeted therapy, and was discharged with medication (anastrozole). During the treatment process, the patient did not experience adverse reactions such as myelosuppression, cardiotoxicity, or the occurrence of osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS Clinical pharmacists analyzed and adjusted the preoperative and postoperative antitumor treatment plans based on the patient’s renal function. They promptly assessed the correlation between antitumor drugs and acute kidney injury, and actively implemented comprehensive pharmaceutical care to ensure medication safety for breast cancer patients with CKD.
7.Mechanism of Wendantang in Intervention of ApoE-/- Hyperlipidemic Mice Based on Liver Metabolomics
Yun ZHOU ; Songren YU ; Lu ZHANG ; Wenting LIN ; Keming YU ; Min XIA ; Zhijun ZENG ; Yanhua JI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(10):1-9
ObjectiveTo explore the mechanism of action of Wendantang on ApoE-/- hyperlipidemic mice using non-targeted metabolomics technology. MethodsMale C57BL/6J mice served as the normal control group (n=6), and they were fed with regular chow, while male ApoE-/- mice constituted the high-fat group (n=30), and they were fed with a 60% high-fat diet. After 11 weeks of model establishment, the mice in the high-fat group were randomly divided into the model group, simvastatin group (3.3 mg·kg-1), and high-dose, medium-dose, and low-dose groups of Wendantang (26, 13, 6.5 g·kg-1, respectively, in terms of crude drug amount), with six mice in each group. The normal control group and the model group were gavaged with an equivalent volume of normal saline, and all groups continued to be fed their respective diets, receiving daily medication for 10 weeks with weekly body weight measurements. Serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), free fatty acids (NEFA), blood glucose (GLU), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were detected in the mice. Pathological changes in liver tissue were observed using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining, and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF-MS/MS) was employed for metabolomic analysis of mouse liver tissue. ResultsCompared to the normal control group, the model group exhibited significantly increased body weight, blood lipid levels, and liver function (P<0.05, P<0.01), with disordered liver tissue structure, swollen hepatocytes, and accompanying vacuolar fatty degeneration and inflammatory cell infiltration. Compared to the model group, the simvastatin group and Wendantang groups showed significantly reduced body weight, TG, NEFA, GLU, ALT, and AST levels (P<0.05, P<0.01), with a significant increase in HDL-C levels (P<0.05, P<0.01), demonstrating a dose-dependent effect. The lesion of the liver tissue section was obviously improved after administration, tending towards a normal liver tissue morphology. Analysis of liver metabolites revealed 86 differential metabolites between the normal control group and the model group, with the high-dose group of Wendantang able to regulate 56 of these metabolites. Twenty-two differential metabolites associated with hyperlipidemia were identified, mainly including chenodeoxycholic acid, hyocholic acid, taurine, glycocholic acid, dihydroceramide, hydroxy sphingomyelin C14∶1, arachidonic acid, and linoleic acid, enriching 22 metabolic pathways, with 4 being the most significant (P<0.05), namely primary bile acid biosynthesis, sphingolipid metabolism, unsaturated fatty acid biosynthesis, and linoleic acid metabolism pathways. ConclusionWendantang can improve blood lipid levels and liver function in ApoE-/- hyperlipidemic mice, which may be related to the regulation of primary bile acid biosynthesis, sphingolipid metabolism, unsaturated fatty acid biosynthesis, and linoleic acid metabolism pathways.
8.Effect and mechanism of bumetanide on lung injury in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease model rats
Yu LEI ; Jing LU ; Wenjuan HE ; Jiaying GU ; Dengfeng ZHOU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(8):939-944
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect and mechanism of bumetanide on lung injury in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) model rats. METHODS COPD rat model was induced by lipopolysaccharide, and they were randomly divided into model group (COPD group), bumetanide low-dose and high-dose groups (Bumetanide-L group, Bumetanide-H group), bumetanide high-dose+Yes-associated protein/transcriptional coactivator containing PDZ-binding motif (YAP/TAZ) signaling pathway activator group (Bumetanide-H+PY-60 group), with 12 rats in each group. Another 12 normal rats were selected as normal control group (Control group). Thirty minutes before modeling, bumetanide/normal saline was inhaled or/and PY-60/ normal saline was injected into the tail vein. On the next day after the completion of modeling and drug administration, the pulmonary function index of the rats in each group was measured [forced expiratory volume in 0.3 seconds (FEV0.3), forced vital capacity (FVC), peak expiratory flow (PEF), FEV0.3/FVC]. The levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and IL-1β in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) were determined; the pathological morphology of lung tissue and degree of pulmonary fibrosis were observed. The expression levels of transforming growth factor- β (TGF- β), α -smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) and TAZ protein as well as the phosphorylation of YAP protein in lung tissues were detected. RESULTS Compared with COPD group, the pathological injury of lung tissue in Bumetanide-L and Bumetanide-H groups was alleviated; the exfoliation of lung epithelial cells, tube wall thickening and the degree of pulmonary fibrosis were alleviated; inflammatory cell infiltration was reduced, and blue collagen deposition was reduced; FEV0.3, FVC, FEV0.3/FVC and PEF were significantly increased, while the lung injury score, levels of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1β, expression levels of TGF-β, α-SMA and TAZ protein and the phosphorylation of YAP protein were significantly decreased (P<0.05). PY-60 could significantly reverse the improvement effects of bumetanide on above indexes (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Bumetanide can alleviate lung injury, inflammatory response and pulmonary fibrosis in COPD rats, and its mechanism is related to inhibiting YAP/TAZ signaling pathway.
9.Association between lifestyle and cardiovascular-metabolic risk factor aggregation in a young and middle-aged male occupational population
Baoyi LIANG ; Lyurong LI ; Yingjun CHEN ; Lingxiang XIE ; Gaisheng LIU ; Liuquan JIANG ; Lu YU ; Qingsong CHEN
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2025;42(4):385-391
Background Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors may be associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic risk factor aggregation (CMRF≥ 2), and few studies have focused on the correlation between the two in occupational populations. Objective To investigate the current status of CMRF≥2 and the compliance of healthy lifestyle in male occupational personnel, explore the effect of lifestyle on cardiometabolic risk, and provide reference for formulating healthy behavior promotion strategies and reducing cardiometabolic risk in occupational populations. Methods The study subjects were selected from male workers who completed occupational health examinations at an occupational disease prevention and control hospital in Shanxi Province from May to December 2023, and
10.Effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor empagliflozin in alleviating uremic cardiomyopathy and related mechanism
Shi CHENG ; Yeqing XIE ; Wei LU ; Jiarui XU ; Yong YU ; Ruizhen CHEN ; Bo SHEN ; Xiaoqiang DING
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2025;32(2):248-258
Objective To investigate the effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (empagliflozin, EMPA) on myocardial remodeling in a mouse uremic cardiomyopathy (UCM) model induced by 5/6 nephrectomy, through the phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (PKB/AKT)/p65 signaling pathway. Methods The animals were divided into three groups: Sham group (n=6), UCM group (n=8), and UCM+EMPA group (n=8). A UCM model was established in C57BL/6N mice using the 5/6 nephrectomy. Starting from 5 weeks post-surgery, EMPA or a placebo was administered. After 16 weeks, blood pressure, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, 24-hour urine glucose and urine sodium were measured. Cardiac structure and function were assessed by echocardiography. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and Masson trichrome staining were used to observe pathological changes in the heart and kidneys. Wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) staining was used to evaluate myocardial hypertrophy. The real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) was used to detect the expression levels of myocardial hypertrophy- and fibrosis-related mRNAs. Western blotting was used to detect the expression levels of PI3K, AKT and p65 in myocardial tissues. Results After 16 weeks, UCM group exhibited significantly higher blood pressure, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen than sham group (P<0.01); UCM+EMPA group exhibited lower blood pressure, serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, and higher 24 h urine sodium and glucose than UCM group (P<0.05). Echocardiographic results showed ventricular remodeling in the UCM group, evidenced by left ventricular wall thickening, left ventricular enlargement, increased left ventricular mass, and decreased systolic function (P<0.05); ventricular remodeling was alleviated (P<0.05), though there was no significant improvement in systolic function in UCM+EMPA group. HE and Masson stainings revealed myocardial degeneration, necrosis, and interstitial fibrosis in UCM group (P<0.01); the myocardial pathology improved with reduced collagen deposition in UCM+EMPA group (P<0.01). WGA staining confirmed myocardial hypertrophy in UCM group (P<0.01), while myocardial hypertrophy was alleviated in UCM+EMPA group (P<0.01). RT-qPCR results showed myocardial hypertrophy- and fibrosis-related genes (NPPA, NPPB, MYH7, COL1A1, COL3A1, TGF-β1) were upregulated in UCM group (P<0.05), but downregulated in UCM+EMPA group. Western blotting showed PI3K, p-AKT/AKT ratio, and p-p65/p65 ratio were increased in UCM group, but decreased in UCM+EMPA group (P<0.05). Conclusion EMPA can improve myocardial hypertrophy and fibrosis in the UCM mouse model, and it may play the role through inhibiting the PI3K/AKT/p65 signaling pathway.


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