ObjectiveTo investigate related factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of stone recurrence after surgery based on independent risk factors. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 144 patients with gallstones who underwent endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy in Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital from January 2012 to January 2018, and according to postoperative stone recurrence, the patients were divided into non-recurrence group and recurrence group. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. LASSO and logistic regression analyses were used to analyze independent risk factors for postoperative stone recurrence, and the corresponding nomogram prediction model was plotted according to regression coefficient. The calibration curve was plotted to evaluate the reliability of the predictive nomogram; Harrell consistency index was used to quantify the discriminatory performance of the predictive nomogram; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of this predictive nomogram. ResultsAll 144 patients underwent successful endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, among whom 14 patients (9.7%) experienced stone recurrence after surgery. The multivariate analysis showed that family history (odds ratio ［OR］= 3.245, 95% confidence interval ［CI］: 0.752-13567, P=0.104), regular diet (OR=3.752, 95% CI: 1.067-14.141, P=0.041), stone homogeneity (OR=5.871, 95% CI: 1636-25.390, P=0.010), and medication compliance (OR=0.225, 95% CI: 0.057-0.799, P=0.024) were independent risk factors for recurrence. The nomogram model had an index of concordance (C-index) of 0.835 (95% CI: 0.732-0.938) in the modeling sample and 0.7925 in the verification sample, suggesting that the nomogram model in this study had good accuracy and discrimination. The predictive nomogram had an AUC of 0.835, suggesting that this nomogram had a relatively high predictive value. ConclusionFamily history, regular diet, stone homogeneity, and medication compliance are independent risk factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and the nomogram constructed based on these independent risk factors may help to predict the risk of postoperative stone recurrence.

To study and establish a set technology systems of sampling, investigation, quality control, and data analysis of complex sampling for chronic diseases and risk factor surveillance in China based on the requirements of the WHO and China's national conditions, and provide evidence for the policy making and prevention and control evaluation of chronic diseases and technical support for the research of chronic diseases. Through the study of complex sampling technique, adjustment of surveillance points and evaluation of their representatives, a national and provincial representative surveillance system and a complex weighted data analysis were established. According to the relevant plans, actions, and policies in China and other countries, the surveillance content and index system were studied and constructed, which was in line with China's national conditions, "1 + X" steps surveillance, covering the content of questionnaire , physical measurement, and laboratory testing. Based on modern information technology, a three-level platform of information collection and a multi-center laboratory quality control technology system were established, including sampling, information collection, biological sample management, quality control, and result display. Relying on the above research techniques, a national epidemiological investigation was conducted in China, which covered cerebrovascular disease, mental disorders, digestive system disease, and diabetes complications, to obtain the national representative data. This study reflected the innovation of "combination of medicine and prevention" and multi department cooperation in the fields of clinical medicine and public health and provided some big data for the health policy making and the evaluation of the effects of chronic disease prevention and control.

Objective: To investigate the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia among Chinese adults in different geographic areas, and to analyze the related factors. Methods: China Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance was conducted in 2013, based on 298 counties/districts in 31 provinces of Chinese mainland. The adults aged 18 years old were randomly selected using multi-stage stratified clustering sampling method. Information on chronic disease and risk factors was collected using face-to-face questionnaire interview and physical measurement. Blood samples were collected by local staffs. Serum total cholesterol (TC) was determined using standard method in a central laboratory. After excluding 565 participants missing key variables and 1 558 participants with abnormal TC values, a total of 174 976 participants were included. Weighted prevalence of hypercholesterolemia was calculated. Hypercholesterolemia related individual or geographic determinants were defined using multilevel logistic regression. Results: The prevalence of hypercholesterolemia in Chinese adults age 18 years old and above was 6.9% (95%CI: 6.4%-7.3%), ranged from 3.0% (95%CI: 2.5%-3.4%) in the northwest of China to 14.2% (95%CI: 12.9%-15.5%) in the south (χ²=183.42, P<0.001). The prevalence of hypercholesterolemia was higher in 6 provinces including Tianjin, Liaoning, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan (≥9.0%), but lower in 7 provinces including Shanxi, Shannxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Tibet (<3.9%). There was a 1.27 fold variation in hypercholesterolemia prevalence by provincial level, and 72.5% of the geographical variation in hypercholesterolemia prevalence was account for by area-level determinants. With multilevel logistic analysis, the individual risk factors associated with hypercholesterolemia included aging, higher education level or annual household income per capita, regular drinking, too much red meal intake, inactivity, overweight or obesity. For geographic factors, residents living at south China, counties/districts with higher urbanization rates, higher education level or lower standardized death rates were more likely to have hypercholesterolemia (all P<0.05). Conclusion The prevalence of hypercholesterolemia was high in Chinese adults, it was different between regions and related with characteristics of population, individual behaviors and geographical regions.

Objective: To investigate the geographical variation of prediabetes in adults in different regions of China, and to analyze the related factors of prediabetes. Methods: Data was obtained from China Chronic Disease and Related Risk Factor Surveillance in 2013. The surveillance adopted multiple-stage stratified cluster random sampling method, which sampled 177 099 residents aged above 18 years old among 298 surveillance points in 31 provinces of Chinese Mainland. Questionnaire interview was used to obtain demographic variables, personal living style, and socio-economical information. Physical examination was conducted and fasting venous blood sample and (oral glucose tolerance test-2 hours, OGTT-2 h) venous blood sample were obtained from the participants. A total of 171 567 residents aged 18 and above were included in the analysis. The prevalence of prediabetes was analyzed by provinces and by China's geographical regions, after complex weighting. Multilevel logistic models were established to explore the related factors of prediabetes on the area level and individual level. Results: The prevalence of prediabetes among residents aged 18 and above was 16.6% (95%CI: 15.6%-17.6%) in China. The prevalence of prediabetes was the highest (18.3%) in the south China and lowest (13.1%) in the northwest area. The difference of the prevalence in different areas were not statistically significant (P=0.510). If categorized the prevalence of prediabetes into 5 groups by quintile, Hainan, Jilin, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan and Chongqing were in the highest group of prevalence of prediabetes (18.6%-22.7%), and Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Jiangxi were in the lowest group (7.6%-12.6%). The variance of prevalence of prediabetes on the county level (MOR: 1.60 (95%CI:1.53-1.67)) was more diverse than the province level (MOR: 1.21(95%CI:1.08-1.29)) and higher than the street level (1.23 (95%CI:1.14-1.30)). Several factors increased risk of pre-diabetes, including smoking, hazardous drinking and harmful drinking, drinking in the past 30 days, overweight, obesity, central obesity, sugary drink intake, hypertension, high total cholesterol, high triglycerides, high blood low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low blood high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all P<0.05). After adjusted the above variables, 92.5% of variance of prediabetes prevalence conld be explained on the provincial level. Conclusion The geographical distribution of prediabetes in adults in China differed by geographic areas, and it significantly varied on the county level. The related variables included demographic variables, personal behavior, and geographic related variables.

Objective: To evaluate the provincial representativeness of China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2013. Methods: The Sixth National Population Census data which was collected by National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China was used to calculate proportion of population who aged 65 and above, mortality rate, the proportion of non-agriculture population, the illiteracy rate and urbanization rate in order to evaluate the surveillance system in each province. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine the statistically differences between the surveillance system and corresponding general population. Results: Among the 298 disease surveillance points (DSPs) in China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System, there were 111, 85, and 102 DSPs located in the east, middle, and west area of China, which covering 13.90%, 11.48%, and 12.28% of the total population, respectively. The surveillance system covered 169 million of the population of China, accounting for 12.70% of Chinese population. The number of DSPs by provinces ranges from 6 (Hainan, Qinghai, and Ningxia) to 14 (Shandong, Guangdong and Henan). It indicated that mortality rate (DSP: 0.238%; Province: 0.482%) and the illiteracy rate (DSP: 15.54%; Province: 26.22%) among DSPs in Tibet were significantly lower than the provincial level, on the other hand, the proportion of non-agriculture population among DSPs (40.6%) was significantly higher than the provincial level (18.8%). The urbanization rate among Jiangxi DSPs (43.4%) was significantly lower than the provincial level (59.9%). The proportion of non-agriculture population among Shandong DSPs (32.8%) was significantly higher than the provincial level (24.2%), however, the illiteracy rate among Shandong DSPs (3.86%) was significantly lower than the provincial level (5.25%). Other than the provinces mentioned above, there was no statistical differences (P>0.05) among proportions of population who aged 65 and above, mortality rates, the proportions of non-agriculture population, the illiteracy rates and urbanization rate between provincial surveillance system and corresponding area. Conclusion Other than 3 provinces, in general, China Non-communicable and Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance System had provincial representativeness.

Objective To explore the effect of fime particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μtm (PM2.5) on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China.Methods Daily average concentrations of PM2.5,cardiovascular disease mortality data and environmental data were collected from January 1,2013 to December 31,2015 in seven cities of China,including Shijiazhuang,Haerbin,Shanghai,Wuhan,Guangzhou,Chengdu and Xi'an.We linked generalized additive model with Quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the association between daily concentrations of PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality at single-city level and multi-city level,after adjusting for the long-term and seasonal trend,as well as meteorological factors and the effect of "days of week".Results The single-pollutant model indicated that there were marked differences in association strength in these cities,among which the effect in Guangzhou was strongest.At multi-city level,a 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 0.315％ (95％CI:0.133％-0.497％) of daily cardiovascular disease mortality.From lag0 to lag2,the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality decreased,while it was strongest on lag01.In the two-pollutant model,the estimated effect decreased in all the cities with the adjustments of SO2 or NO2.The insignificant combined results suggested that PM2.5 might have combined effect with other pollutants.Each 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with increases of 0.371％ (95％CI:0.141％-0.600％) and 0.199％ (95％ CI:0.077％-0.321％) of cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females,respectively.The effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality increased with age and decreased with educational level,although the differences between different subgroups were insignificant.The dose-response relationship between PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality was non-linear and non-threshold,with a steeper curve at lower concentrations.Conclusion The increases of PM2.5 concentration can result in the increase of daily cardiovascular mortality.

Objective To analyze deaths that attributable to high fasting plasma glucose and its impact on life expectancy among Chinese residents in 2013.Methods Data from the Mortality Surveillance Programs in National Disease Surveillance Points System and the China Chronic Disease Surveillance (2013) were used.Death attributed to high fasting plasma glucose and its impact on the life expectancy of Chinese residents were estimated,based on the principle of population attributable fraction.Results In 2013,the total number of deaths attributed to high fasting plasma glucose among aged ≥25 years old was 621 thousand,with 333 thousand males and 288 thousand females.Diseases related to the number of deaths caused by high fasting plasma glucose would include ischemic heart disease (212 thousand) as the most important one.Cerebrovascular disease appeared the 2nd place,with around 181 thousand cases and then followed by diabetes (145 thousand),chronic kidney disease (52 thousand) and tuberculosis (31 thousand).After removal of the effects on high blood glucose exposure,the life expectancy of Chinese residents in 2013 would have reached 76.5 years old,an average increase of 0.7 years,compared to the average life expectancy of all deaths,with men having an increase of 0.7 years and women of 0.8 years,respectively.Conclusions High fasting plasma glucose appeared an important risk factor for mortality and life expectancy on the Chinese residents.Programs related to prevention and control of high fasting plasma glucose and related diseases should be strengthened.

Objective: To investigate the current status, temporal trend and achieving Health China 2030 reduction target of probability of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease in China both at national and provincial level during 1990 to 2015. Methods: Using the results of Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), according to the method of calculating premature mortality probability recommended by WHO, the current status and temporal trend by different gender from 1990 to 2015 were calculated, analyzed, and compared. Referring to " Health China 2030" target of reduction 30% of probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs, we evaluated the difficulty of achieving the reduction target among provinces (not including Taiwan). Results: From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, and chronic respiratory disease were all declined consistently for both men and women in China, the total of four main NCDs decreased from 30.69% to 18.54% with higher decreasing in women (from 25.97% to 12.40%) than that in men (from 34.94% to 24.19%). In 2015, the top five provinces in terms of probability of premature mortality caused by four main NCDs were Qinghai (28.81%), Tibet (25.88%), Guizhou (24.67%), Guangxi (23.56%), and Xinjiang (23.21%) in turn, while the top five provinces with the lowest probability were Shanghai (8.40%), Beijing (9.39%), Hong Kong (10.10%), Macao (10.31%), and Zhejiang (11.70%). If achieving the " Health China 2030" target, the probabilities of premature mortality in Qinghai and Tibet with the highest probability should decline to about 20.17%, and 18.12%, respectively in 2030, while 5.88%, and 6.57% in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. From 1990 to 2015, the probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 2.00% a year on average, the top five provinces with the fastest decline were Beijing (3.48%), Shanghai (3.24%), Zhejiang (2.81%), Fujian (2.75%), and Guangdong (2.67%), and 11 provinces including these five provinces could achieve the " Health China 2030" target by the usual rate of decline, while other 22 provinces could not achieve the target, they need greater rate of decline in order to achieve the target. Conclusion From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality of four main NCDs were declined consistently in China both at national and provincial level, compared with women, the men had higher probabilities and declined slower, there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among provinces. Based on the results from 1990 to 2015, there were about two thirds of the provinces, which the task of achieving the Health China 2030 target will be daunting.

Objective: To analyze the burden of disease attributable to low fruit intake among Chinese population aged ≥15 years old between 1990 and 2013. Methods: We used data from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Burden of Disease Study to study the situation in China. The population attributable fraction was calculated to estimate and compare the death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributed to low fruit intake between 1990 and 2013 in China (excluded Taiwan, China). An average world population age structure of the period 2000-2025 was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates. Results: Deaths attributable to low fruit intake accounted for 11.02% of all death in 2013, which were higher than it in 1990 (10.38%). In 2013, the number of deaths attributed to low fruit intake in China increased to 1 046 500 from 793 800 in 1990. From 1990-2013, the age-standardized death rate attributable to low fruit intake decreased from 113.04/100 000 to 79.80/100 000. DALYs caused by low fruit intake increased from 18.346 5 million in 1990 to 21.296 7 million in 2013. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized DALY rate attributed to low fruit intake decreased by 34.67%. In 2013, the top three provinces with the highest burden of disease attributed to low fruits intake were Tibet, Guizhou and Xinjiang provinces, with standardized DALY rate at 2 612.53/100 000, 2 281.85/100 000 and 2 198.22/100 000, respectively. Compared with the results in 1990, the standardized DALY attributed to low fruits intake decreased, especially in Tianjin, where decreased by 63.61%; followed by Aomen, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Beijing, where decreased by 59.74%, 59.53%, 56.64% and 53.88%, respectively. Conclusion Compared with the situation in 1990, the burden of disease attributable to low fruit intake decreased in 2013, but the situation is still serious, especially in Tibet, Guizhou and Xinjiang provinces, where the burden decreased comparatively slowly.

Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (201 thousands reduction). BMI control would have the greatest impact on ischemic heart disease (86 thousands reduction) and hypertensive heart disease (45 thousands reduction). If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, in 2030, the life expectancy of Chinese population would reach to 79.0 years old, compared to 2013, increasing by 3.3 years old, the labor force at the age of 15-64 years old would loss 1.932 million. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, life expectancy would increase to 81.7 years old and the number of labor force lost would decrease to 1.467 million. Blood pressure, smoking and BMI control would have much greater impact on life expectancy (4.9, 4.0 and 3.8 years old respectively) and labor force lost (630 thousands, 496 thousands and 440 thousands respectively). Conclusion Risk factors control would play an important role in reducing NCD death, improving life expectancy of residents and reducing loss of labor force. Among them, the control of blood pressure raising, smoking and BMI raising would have a greater contribution to the improvement of population health status.