Objective To access the effectiveness of modified early warning score (MEWS) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) in predicting the degree of injury and outcome for emergently admitted polytrauma patients.Methods In this single-center prospective study,266 polytrauma patients hospitalized from June 2012 to January 2013 were enrolled.MEWS and APACHE Ⅱ score were collected and compared for the rate of ICU admission,high dependency unit admission,outpatient therapy,death,and discharge within 30 days.Diagnostic and predictive performance of MEWS and APACHE Ⅱ were assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).Results A higher values in MEWS and APACHE Ⅱ were linked to much severe injury,increased likelihood of admission to the ICU or high dependency unit and high mortality.Patients with MEWS value ≥5 had increased risk of death as compared with those with MEWS value ＜ 5 (x2 =90.749,P ＜0.01).MEWS =5,for injury severity evaluation,showed a sensitivity of 85.7％ and specificity of 84.8％.MEWS value≥5 predicted ICU admission with a sensitivity of 80.0％ and specificity of 91.1％ and high dependency unit admission with a sensitivity of 67.9％ and specificity of 79.9％.APACHE Ⅱ score ≥ 21 was associated with increased rate of death,with significant difference from that among patients with APACHE Ⅱ score ＜ 21 (x2 =73.518,P ＜ 0.01).APACHE Ⅱ score =21,for injury severity evaluation,showed a sensitivity of 90.5％ and specificity of 79.5％.APACHE Ⅱ score ≥ 21 predicted ICU admission with a sensitivity of 95.0％ and specificity of 73.6％ and high dependency unit admission with a sensitivity of 88.2％ and specificity of 72.8％.In prediction of prognosis,ICU admission and high dependency unit admission,area under the ROC curve with 95％ CI for NEWS was 0.889 (0.830-0.948),0.937 (0.900-0.975) and 0.946 (0.916-0.977) respectively and for APACHE Ⅱ was 0.939 (0.898-0.979),0.761 (0.677-0.845) and 0.832 (0.782-0.883) respectively.MEWS and APACHE Ⅱ score in death group were (6.4 ± 2.7) points and (29.9 ± 6.4) points,but lowered to (3.0 ± 1.5) points and (16.8 ± 5.7) points respectively in survival group (P ＜ 0.01).Conclusions Both APACHE Ⅱ and MEWS have the ability to discriminate the severity of polytrauma patients and identify the potential of seriously ill patients.MEWS is more suitable for early identification of critically ill trauma patient due to its easy and quick operation as well as low cost,while APACHE Ⅱ is more suitable for evaluation of emergency observing patients and ICU patients.

Objective:To identify the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of gallbladder cancer after radical resection, and to develop and validate the nomogram of predictive model.Methods:The clinical data of 147 patients with gallbladder cancer treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2012 to January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 53 males and 94 females, aged (61.45±10.76) years old. The patients were followed up by outpatient or telephone review. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analysis. The variables of P<0.1 in univariate analysis were included in the minimum absolute convergence and selection operator (LASSO) regression model, and the predictive factors affecting the prognosis of gallbladder cancer were screened. The predictive model was established by multivariate Cox regression analysis, and a nanogram was constructed based on the multivariate Cox regression model. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by consistency index (C index), time-dependent C index curve, receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC). 500 times of Bootstrap sampling were conducted for the calibration of nomogram. Results:The median survival of patients with gallbladder cancer was 22.15 months, and the 1-, 2- and 3-year cumulative survival rates were 65.99%, 46.02% and 35.73%, respectively. LASSO regression analysis showed that age, abdominal pain, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, serum levels of CA-199 and total bilirubin were predictive factors affecting the prognosis of gallbladder cancer (all P<0.05). The prognosis prediction model was established by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The C-index was 0.856 (95% CI: 0.823-0.887). The AUC values for 1-year and 3-year survival probabilities are 0.939 and 0.944, respectively. The calibration chart indicates that this model has a good accuracy. The decision curve analysis confirmed that the net benefit of this model is significantly higher than two extreme situations, indicating its clinical applicability and patients’ benefits. Conclusion:The nomogram for postoperative prognosis of gallbladder cancer based on age, abdominal pain, degree of differentiation, T stage, N stage, serum levels of total bilirubin and CA-199 has a high accuracy, which might affect the treatment decision-making of patients with gallbladder cancer.