OBJECTIVE:To explore the new drug purchasing mode using autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) prediction model for improvement of the working quality and efficiency in hospital drug storeroom.METHODS:Drug consumption data from week 1 to week 47 in 2008 were collected.According to ABC method,category A drugs were defined among which 10 kinds of drugs were sampled randomly.Based on the data of from week 1 to week 44 in 2008,software SPSS13 was applied for the modeling and fitting of ARIMA model.The established model was applied to predict the data of from week 45 to 47,with the predicated data compared with the actual consumption data.RESULTS:The predicted purchasing amount using ARIMA model were consistent with the actual consumption data,with prediction accuracy for quantity at 89.19% and prediction accuracy for whole unit of purchased drugs at 97.56%,respectively.CONCLUSIONS:Good fitting and high short-medium term predication accuracy were obtained in the prediction using ARIMA model,and which could provide scientific support for drug purchasing and help manage the drug stock reasonably without appearance of out of stock or overstock.

BACKGROUND: Neurological complications after coronary artery bypass grafting still have a high incidence rate, and the etiology is multiple.OBJECTIVE: To retrospectively investigate the occurrence and relevant factors of severe neurological complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).METHODS: A total of 761 consecutive patients with undergoing CABG were included in this study from September 2002 to August 2009 at the Nanjing Drumtower Hospital, including 443 males and 318 females, aged from 32-89 years. All patients were grouped according to age(more than or less than 70-year-old) and on pump or off pump coronary surgery. Disclose the relationship between the risk factors and the neurological complications by statistics analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Totally 41 patients had serious neurological complications in this study. There was a higher complication incidence in 570-year-old group patients (n=22) than < 70-year-old group (n=19)(14.9% vs. 3.1%, P< 0.001). The neurological complications incidence was similar in on-Pump CABG group (n =7) and off-Pump CABG group (n = 34) (5.3% vs.5.4%, P=0.39). The incidence rate of severe neurological complications was high in carotid artery stenosis > 50% patients. A total of 8 cases died, 2 for massive hemorrhage of gastrointestinal tract; 1 for severe sepsis; 4 for multiple organ dysfunction syndrome;1 for epilepsia gravior postoperatively. Finally, 33 cases survived. The average time of follow up was 3 years, 3 cases died, 3 cases recovery from limitation of limb or hand movement partly, and 1 case had severe mental retardation. Results displayed that elderly patients(= 70 years) undergoing CABG are at higher risk of neurological dysfunction. Carotid artery stenosis is the most risk factor. There are no significant effects on postoperative complications between on-pump CABG and off-pump CABG.

Objective To investigate whether two polymorphism sites of the the exon 2 Lys65Lys(G/A) and exon 9 Va1365Met(G/A) in T ceils immunoglobulin domain and mucin domain protein-4(TIM-4) are associated with asthma in Chinese Han population of Hubei province. Methods The polymorphisms were de-tected with polymerase ehain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism(PCR-RFLP) in 185 cases of al-lergic asthma and 162 healthy controls. The genotype and allele frequencies were calculated and analyzed. Re-sults(1)The genotype frequencies of G/G, G/A and A/A in Lys65Lys(G/A)polymorphism were 0.840, 0.160 and 0 respectively in the healthy population, and were 0.859, 0.141 and 0 respectively in the allergic asthma population. No significant difference in genotype and allele frequencies was found between asthma pa-tients and the control subjects (P=0.603, P=0.618). (2) The polymorphism of the Val365 Met(G/A) was not detected in our study. Conclusion There is polymorphism site of the exon 2 Lys65Lys(G/A)in TIM-4, but this polymorphism site is not associated with asthma in Han nationality in Hubei Chinese population. There is no SNP of the exon 9 Val365Met(G/A) in TIM-4 in Chinese Han population of Hubei province.

Objective: To select the common syndrome factors of menopausal syndrome through questionnaire investigation among experts. Methods: Firstly, a questionnaire was constructed on the basis of our previous research, and then investigation of the experts by the questionnaire was carried out. The experts came from twelve tertiary hospitals (6 cities) in China, and engaged in clinical practice of gynecology of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) or integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine. The common TCM syndrome factors of menopausal syndrome were selected based on consent degree of the experts in mean value, full marks ratio, rank sum and variation coefficient. Results: One hundred sets of the questionnaires were sent out and ninety-eight sets were returned back. The callback rate was 98%. In accordance with cumulative percentage of expert agreement and complete agreement more than 50% and the coefficient variation less than 0.25, we confirmed the common TCM syndrome factors of menopause syndrome. The syndrome factors related to disease location were kidney, liver, heart, and spleen, and those related to the nature of disease were yin deficiency, deficiency of essence, yang deficiency, hyperactivity of yang, qi deficiency, qi stagnation, blood deficiency, and blood stasis. Conclusion: Expert consultation questionnaire can collect consensus opinions of experts and is effective for identifying common TCM syndrome factors of a disease. The TCM syndrome factors acquired through the study may provide the evidence for establishment of TCM syndrome diagnosis criteria for the disease in future.

Objective To understand the patients of congenital microtia malformation families knowledge of skin expander and influencing factors. Methods Self-made questionnaire to sample survey of 500 cases of our department (Plastic Surgery Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, the second microtia concer) patients′ families. Results 47.8％(239/500) of 500 patients of expander knowledge level is high, 41.2％(206/500) pass the exam, 11.0％(55/500) fall the exam, only 13.4％(67/500) really have a comprehensive understanding on expander achieve excellent. Scores of male and female were (16.06 ± 1.99) points and (16.39 ± 2.16) points, t = 1.752, P > 0.05, there was no statistically significant difference comparing the 2 group. Patients′ families score of different cultural levels, respectively (14.06 ± 2.36), (14.98 ± 2.02), (16.54 ± 2.00), (16.73 ± 1.88) points, F = 21.736, P < 0.01, difference of four groups was statistically significant. Different age patients′families score ( 16.21 ± 1.96), (16.62 ± 2.14), (14.86 ± 2.11), (13.98 ± 2.02), (13.73 ± 1.88) points, F = 15.685, P > 0.05, there was no statistically significant difference comparing the 5 groups. Patients with different professional families score (13.25 ± 2.19), (13.79±2.27), (16.08±1.89), (14.10±2.08), (14.13±2.35), (14.45±2.09), (14.56±1.75), (16.84± 1.81) points, F = 2.737, P < 0.01, difference of eight groups was statistically significant. Conclusions Congenital microtia patients′families skin expander knowledge needs to be improved, it is necessary to take various forms, conduct for families of expander knowledge through propaganda and education.

Objective To explore the feasibility and curative effect of extracellular matrix (ECM) fibrinolytic therapy in order to cure radiation-induced brachial plexopathy (RIBP) and to discuss the principle, indication and precautions. Methods The treatment was taken on 16 cases that had a definite clinical diagnosis and we took a systematic examination to make sure that there was no recurrence or metastasis of the tumor.Brachial plexus and tender area block was taken once a week by injection of mixture of hyaluronidase, hexadecadrol, Vitamine B12 and lidocaine. The therapy was applied for 6 to 12 weeks. Results All the patients were followed up for a period of 0.5 to 10 years. Four cases had an evident alleviation of the symptoms and got a function resumption of hands; 5 cases had an alleviation of pain and improvement of sensation and the progress of illness were terminated, but motor function didn't have improvement; 7 cases had a continued aggravation of the symptoms. All the cases found improvement in electromyography. Concluslon The aim of fibrinolytic therapy is to dissolve the extra ECM such as hyaluronic acid around nerves in order to achieve a new homeostasis. It can relieve the conglutination and entrapment at nerve inside and outside, reduce the pressure of neuraxon and create an availing condition for the regenesis of nerve and the regain of function.

Objective To observe the effect of tacrolimus(FK506)in promoting repair of the injured spinal cord pathway after neural stem cell transplantation in rats. Methods A neurysm clip was used to compress the T8 spinal cord segment of SD rats under microscope to establish model of spinal cord injury.The rats were randomly divided into three groups seven days after injury,ie,control group (injection of normal saline at the injury center),transplantation group(injection of neural stem cells,NSCs,at the injury center),FK506 group(injection of NSCs at the injury center plus 7 days of intrapernerve conduction was compared by using the Basso-Beatfle-Bresnahan (BBB) scale,BDA tracing,somatosensory evoked potential(SEP)and motor evoked potentials(MEP)monitoring at 1,2,4 and 8weeks. Results The motor function of the hind limb after injury was recovered in various degrees with time,with the most significant recovery at 4 weeks.The BBB score reached 6,the maximum at 8 weeks.BDA tracing showed that some nerve fibers were found crossing the injured center of the spinal cord one week later in FK506 group and cell transplantation group,that BDA-positive labeled corticospinal tract fibets were seen across the injury site in all groups by the end ofthe eight weeks.In the FKS06 group,the regeneration could be observed even as 1.7 cm away from tlle injury center.SEP latency was significantly shorter in the FK506 group after two weeks(P<0.05)and the MEP latency in the FK506 group was shortened significantly at four weeks compared with the other groups(P<0.05),indicating that the immunosuppressants could promote the recovery of the injured spihal cord,shorten the latency of SEP and MEP，improve SEP at early stage and MEP at late stage．Conclusions Systemic application immuno suppressive agents FK506 plays an important role in neuroprotection and neurotrophy，which promotes the repair of the injured spinal cord after neural stem cell transplantation．

To define the weighting coefficients of the symptoms and signs in the diagnosis of corresponding traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome elements of ulcerative colitis based on expert questionnaire investigation.

Objective To compare the safety and efficacy of carotid artery stenting (CAS) and carotid endarterectomy(CEA) for the treatment of carotid stenosis. Methods The electronic databases (PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CNKI, VIP and Wanfang) were searched in order to retrieve randomized controlled trials (RCTs) about comparing CAS and CEA for the treatment of carotid stenosis. Cochrane collaboration's RevMan 5.0.24 were used for analyzing data. Results Twelve RCTs totalling 6903 patients (3460 patients were randomized to CAS and 3443 randomized to CEA) with symptomatic or asymptomatic stenosis were included in the meta-analysis. There were significantly higher 30-day relative risks after CAS than after CEA for death or any stroke [RR=1.64, 95%CI (1.33-2.03), P＜0.00001] and for stroke [RR=1.70, 95%CI (1.34-2.14), P＜0.00001]. The relative risks of myocardial infarction [RR=0.62, 95%CI (0.39-0.97), P=0.04] and cranial neuropathy [RR=0.07, 95%CI (0.03-0.16), P＜0.00001] was significantly less after CAS than after CEA. The relative risks of death [RR=1.27, 95%CI (0.82-1.96), P=0.29] or disabling stroke within 30 days [RR=1.33, 95%CI (0.78-2.28), P=0.29] and any stroke or death at 1 year after the procedures [RR=0.96, 95%CI (0.63-1.46), P=0.84] did not differ significantly between CAS and CEA operation. Conclusions CEA remains the first choice for treatment of carotid stenosis for patients with low surgery risk. For patients with high surgery risk and unsuitable for surgery, CAS has more advantages. It is reasonable to view CAS and CEA as complementary rather than competing modes of therapy.

Objective In order to understand the children's blood lead load and presence status of blood lead levels,provide the first-hand information on further preventive intervention in high lead hyperlipidemia.Methods This study routinely collected 5 to 9-year-old children's blood,a total of 1963 cases.Peripheral blood lead levels was detected by atomic absorption spectrometry.Results Blood lead ≥ 100μg/L is 45 cases in 1963 cases of children, the rate is 2.3%, the highest is 439μg/L,only one.Other 44 persons' blood lead level is 100 ~ 200μg/L,average 149.2μg/L.Conclusion The children's blood lead levels in Beilun district of Ningbo city is in normal state in general,not high blood lead load.