1.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
2.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
3.Safety, dosimetry, and efficacy of an optimized long-acting somatostatin analog for peptide receptor radionuclide therapy in metastatic neuroendocrine tumors: From preclinical testing to first-in-human study.
Wei GUO ; Xuejun WEN ; Yuhang CHEN ; Tianzhi ZHAO ; Jia LIU ; Yucen TAO ; Hao FU ; Hongjian WANG ; Weizhi XU ; Yizhen PANG ; Liang ZHAO ; Jingxiong HUANG ; Pengfei XU ; Zhide GUO ; Weibing MIAO ; Jingjing ZHANG ; Xiaoyuan CHEN ; Haojun CHEN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(2):707-721
Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with radiolabeled SSTR2 agonists is a treatment option that is highly effective in controlling metastatic and progressive neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Previous studies have shown that an SSTR2 agonist combined with albumin binding moiety Evans blue (denoted as 177Lu-EB-TATE) is characterized by a higher tumor uptake and residence time in preclinical models and in patients with metastatic NETs. This study aimed to enhance the in vivo stability, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of 177Lu-EB-TATE by replacing the maleimide-thiol group with a polyethylene glycol chain, resulting in a novel EB conjugated SSTR2-targeting radiopharmaceutical, 177Lu-LNC1010, for PRRT. In preclinical studies, 177Lu-LNC1010 exhibited good stability and SSTR2-binding affinity in AR42J tumor cells and enhanced uptake and prolonged retention in AR42J tumor xenografts. Thereafter, we presented the first-in-human dose escalation study of 177Lu-LNC1010 in patients with advanced/metastatic NETs. 177Lu-LNC1010 was well-tolerated by all patients, with minor adverse effects, and exhibited significant uptake and prolonged retention in tumor lesions, with higher tumor radiation doses than those of 177Lu-EB-TATE. Preliminary PRRT efficacy results showed an 83% disease control rate and a 42% overall response rate after two 177Lu-LNC1010 treatment cycles. These encouraging findings warrant further investigations through multicenter, prospective, and randomized controlled trials.
4.Effects of Baihuang Zhili decoction on intestinal mucosal barrier function of chickens infected with Salmonella pullorum
Xinmiao LI ; Yuxin YANG ; Miao LI ; Haitao SHI ; Wenjun FENG ; Pengfei YI
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(8):1754-1762
One hundred 1-day-old HY-LINE VARIETY BROWN were randomly divided into 5 groups:the blank group,the model group,the Baihuang Zhili decoction low-dose treatment group(1 g/kg),the Baihuang Zhili decoction medium-dose treatment group(2 g/kg)and the Baihuang Zhili decoction high-dose treatment group(4 g/kg).The results showed that:(1)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could restore the integrity of intestinal mucosal barrier structure and reduce inflammation.It significantly increased the expression of tight junction pro-teins ZO-1,Claudin-1 and Occludin in small intestine(P<0.05),and significantly decreased the levels of DAO(diamine axidase)and D(-)-lactic acid(P<0.05).(2)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly increase the number of goblet cells(P<0.05).Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly increase the MUC2 levels of duodenum,and the MUC2 level of ileum in 1 g/kg group and 4 g/kg group was significantly increased(P<0.05),the MUC2 levels of jejunum in 2 g/kg group were significantly increased(P<0.05).(3)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction significantly decreased the sIgA level in duodenum and jeju-num(P<0.05),and the sIgA level in ileum in 1 g/kg group was significantly decreased(P<0.05).The IgG level in serum was significantly decreased(P<0.05).Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly reduce the expression levels of intestinal immune-related genes(IL-1β,IL-2,IL-6,IL-8,TNF-α)(P<0.05).It could significantly decrease the expression levels of immune-related factors(TNF-α,IFN-γ,IL-1β,IL-2)in tonsil of cecum(P<0.05).(4)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could increase Ace,Chao and Shannon index of intestinal flora,reduce Simpson index of intestinal flora,and increase alpha diversity of intestinal microbes.It significantly decreased the relative abundance of Proteobacteria(P<0.05),and significantly increased the rela-tive abundance of Campylobacterota(P<0.05).It also significantly decreased the relative abun-dance of Lactobacillus(P<0.05).In summary,Baihuang Zhili decoction can improve the damage of intestinal mechanical barrier,chemical barrier,immune barrier and microbial barrier caused by pul-lorum disease,and enhance the intestinal immunity.
5.Analysis of the incidence and age characteristics of colorectal cancer in cancer registration areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019
Jin ZHOU ; Weigang MIAO ; Jinyi ZHOU ; Ran TAO ; Pengfei CAI ; Pengfei LUO ; Renqiang HAN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(7):1054-1062
Objective:To analyze the trend of colorectal cancer incidence and age changes in cancer registration areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019.Methods:Based on the continuous and complete data of 16 cancer registries with qualified quality control in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019, the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate by Segi World Standard Population (ASIRW), age-specific incidence rate, mean age at onset, standardized mean age at onset, standardized age-specific incidence proportion, and incidence proportion of the population over 60 years old of colorectal cancer were calculated. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of crude incidence rate, ASIRW, age-specific incidence rate, and incidence proportion of the population over 60 years, respectively. Birth cohort models were constructed to analyze the incidence of colorectal cancer and its trends in the population born from 1929 to 2019. Linear regression models were used to analyze the correlation between mean age at onset, standardized mean age at onset and the year of onset.Results:From 2009 to 2019, a total of 48 036 new cases of colorectal cancer were collected from 16 cancer registries in Jiangsu Province, including 27 508 males and 20 528 females. The crude incidence rate and ASIRW of colorectal cancer in Jiangsu Province increased from 19.00/100 000 and 12.32/100 000 in 2009 to 33.49/100 000 and 16.75/100 000 in 2019, respectively, showing a significant upward trend (CR: AAPC=5.99%, ASIRW: AAPC=3.54%, P<0.001). The increase of ASIRW was greater in males than that observed in females (males: AAPC=4.31%, females: AAPC=2.34%, P<0.001), and greater in rural areas than in urban areas (rural areas: AAPC=4.03%, urban areas: AAPC=3.13%, P<0.001). The incidence of people over 50 years old increased significantly by year, with the 60~69 age group exhibiting a more rapid increase ( AAPC=4.97%, P<0.05). In the birth cohort, the incidence increased rapidly in the population over 50 years with the passage of birth year, with AAPCs ranging from 1.76% to 7.05% ( P<0.05). From 2009 to 2019, the standardized mean age at onset of colorectal cancer increased by 0.10 years annually. The proportion of standardized age-specific incidence exhibited a trend of increase in older age groups, and the incidence proportion of the population over 60 years old showed a significant yearly increase ( AAPC=0.86%, P<0.001). Conclusion:From 2009 to 2019, the incidence, mean age at onset and the incidence proportion of the population over 60 years old of colorectal cancer in Jiangsu Province could exhibit a rapid upward trend. The increase is particularly pronounced in males and rural areas. Additionally, the age-specific incidence distribution reveals a trend of increase in older age groups. Therefore, targeted adjustments and comprehensive prevention measures should be strengthened.
6.Arterial resection in pancreatic cancer surgery: a single-center review on 135 procedures
Xumin HUANG ; Kai ZHANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Lingdong MENG ; Lei TIAN ; Zipeng LU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Min TU ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of General Surgery 2025;40(3):188-194
Objective:To investigate the clinical efficacy of pancreatic cancer surgery with arterial resection.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 135 patients undergoing pancreatectomies with arterial resection in Pancreas Center, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from Sep 2013 to Dec 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.Results:There were 77 males and 58 females, with age [ M( IQR)] of 63 (14) years old. Among the 135 patients, 122 (90.4%) were distal pancreatectomies, 8 (5.9%) were pancreaticoduodenectomies, 4 (3.0%) were total pancreatectomies and 1 (0.7%) was resection for local recurrence after distal pancreatectomy. There were 120 (88.9%) celiac axis resections, 11 (8.1%) hepatic artery resections, 1 (0.7%) superior mesenteric artery resection and 3 (2.2%) other artery resections. Simultaneous portal vein-superior mesenteric vein or organ resection accounted for 26.7% (36/135) and 29.6% (40/135),respectively. The median blood loss was 300 (300) ml and the median operation time was 275 (105) minutes. The 90-day mortality rate was 7.4% (10/135). The overall morbidity rate was 70.4% (95/135) while the major morbidity rate was 18.5% (25/135). Postoperative hemorrhage occurred in 8.9% (12/135), clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula in 57.0% (77/135), bile leak in 0.74% (1/135), delayed gastric emptying in 9.6% (13/135), liver failure in 3.7% (5/135) and transient liver enzyme elevation in 44.4% (60/135). All of the 135 cases were confirmed as pancreatic cancer histologically, including 54.6% (71/130) moderately differentiated, 45.4% (59/130) poorly differentiated and no for well differentiated. The median tumor size was 4.5 (2.3) cm. The median number of harvested lymph nodes was 14 (13) and the percentage of N0, N1 and N2 according to AJCC 8th staging system was 27.1% (36/133), 52.6% (70/133) and 20.3% (27/133), respectively. The R 0 resection was achieved in 40 of 123 cases (32.5%), whose margins of specimens were assessed circumferentially based on the 1mm rule. The median overall survival time (MST) after surgery was 22.5 months, and the median progress-free survival time was 16.1 months. The overall survival rate at 1-, 2- and 5-year was 71.5%, 45.1% and 11.3%, respectively. The MST of patients who received no adjuvant therapy, chemotherapy after surgery was 8.4 months, 25.3 months, respectively. Conclusions:Pancreatectomy with arterial resection is generally safe and feasible. Survival outcome improves significantly when combined with adjuvant chemotherapy.
7.Effects of Baihuang Zhili decoction on intestinal mucosal barrier function of chickens infected with Salmonella pullorum
Xinmiao LI ; Yuxin YANG ; Miao LI ; Haitao SHI ; Wenjun FENG ; Pengfei YI
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(8):1754-1762
One hundred 1-day-old HY-LINE VARIETY BROWN were randomly divided into 5 groups:the blank group,the model group,the Baihuang Zhili decoction low-dose treatment group(1 g/kg),the Baihuang Zhili decoction medium-dose treatment group(2 g/kg)and the Baihuang Zhili decoction high-dose treatment group(4 g/kg).The results showed that:(1)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could restore the integrity of intestinal mucosal barrier structure and reduce inflammation.It significantly increased the expression of tight junction pro-teins ZO-1,Claudin-1 and Occludin in small intestine(P<0.05),and significantly decreased the levels of DAO(diamine axidase)and D(-)-lactic acid(P<0.05).(2)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly increase the number of goblet cells(P<0.05).Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly increase the MUC2 levels of duodenum,and the MUC2 level of ileum in 1 g/kg group and 4 g/kg group was significantly increased(P<0.05),the MUC2 levels of jejunum in 2 g/kg group were significantly increased(P<0.05).(3)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction significantly decreased the sIgA level in duodenum and jeju-num(P<0.05),and the sIgA level in ileum in 1 g/kg group was significantly decreased(P<0.05).The IgG level in serum was significantly decreased(P<0.05).Baihuang Zhili decoction could significantly reduce the expression levels of intestinal immune-related genes(IL-1β,IL-2,IL-6,IL-8,TNF-α)(P<0.05).It could significantly decrease the expression levels of immune-related factors(TNF-α,IFN-γ,IL-1β,IL-2)in tonsil of cecum(P<0.05).(4)Compared with the model group,Baihuang Zhili decoction could increase Ace,Chao and Shannon index of intestinal flora,reduce Simpson index of intestinal flora,and increase alpha diversity of intestinal microbes.It significantly decreased the relative abundance of Proteobacteria(P<0.05),and significantly increased the rela-tive abundance of Campylobacterota(P<0.05).It also significantly decreased the relative abun-dance of Lactobacillus(P<0.05).In summary,Baihuang Zhili decoction can improve the damage of intestinal mechanical barrier,chemical barrier,immune barrier and microbial barrier caused by pul-lorum disease,and enhance the intestinal immunity.
8.Trends of Incidence and Age at Onset of Leukemia in Jiangsu Cancer Registration Areas from 2009 to 2019
Haiyan LU ; Xinxin DONG ; Xingxing ZHU ; Dekun ZHANG ; Yuxue YANG ; Xiaolan ZHAO ; Renqiang HAN ; Jinyi ZHOU ; Ran TAO ; Weigang MIAO ; Pengfei LUO
China Cancer 2025;34(2):125-131
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of incidence and age at onset of leukemia in Jiangsu cancer registration areas from 2009 to 2019.[Methods]The continuous monitoring data of leukemia from 2009 to 2019 were collected from 16 cancer registries in Jiangsu Province.All datasets were checked and evaluated based on data quality control criteria and were included in the analysis.Crude incidence rate(CIR),age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC),the average annual percentage change(AAPC),the standardized average age at onset,the changes in the age structure of incidence and the changes in the birth cohort by year were calculated.[Results]The incidence rate of leukemia significantly increased from 5.22/105 in 2009 to 7.88/105 in 2019,with a significant upward trend(for CIR,AAPC=4.95%,95%CI:3.82%~6.09%;for ASIRC,AAPC=2.97%,95%CI:1.52%~4.43%).The incidence rates were in-creased in all age groups and increased with the birth cohort by years.There was a tendency of backward shift for the age composition of the population,with the increasing of composition for those over 60 years old.The mean age at onset increased from 48.62 years old in 2009 to 57.96 years old in 2019,with a backward shift in the mean age(β=0.773,P<0.001),and the mean age at onset increased with the year only in rural areas after standardization(β=0.428,P=0.017).[Conclusion]Leukemia incidence rate in Jiangsu Province increased from 2009 to 2019,and the age at onset has shifted backwards.It's important to strengthen the early prevention and control of leukemia.
9.Comparative Study on the Differences in Average Transaction Costs Per-referral of Patients in Different Models of Integrated Delivery Systems
Chunping HU ; Jinxin CUI ; Dongfang ZHU ; Qiuping ZHAO ; Pengfei WANG ; Jian WU ; Yadong NIU ; Yudong MIAO
Chinese Hospital Management 2025;(9):46-50,56
Objective To compare the differences in the average transaction costs per-referral patients under different models of Integrated Delivery Systems(IDS).Methods Using a typical case sampling method,it selected referred patients from three IDS models:the county medical alliance in D City(Qinghai Province),the urban medical consortium in J District(Zhengzhou City,Henan Province),and the health management coalition in N County(Shandong Province).Structured questionnaires collected demographics,average transaction costs per-referral and cost perceptions.t-tests and ANOVA assessed cost differences;generalized linear regression identified influencing factors.Results Among 915 patients,the average transaction costs per-referral were 1 035.05 yuan(county alliance),195.31 yuan(urban consortium),and 700.97 yuan(health management coalition),with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).The urban consortium exhibited lower time costs and specialized input costs.Key influencing factors included older age(county alliance),education level,employment status,and referral travel time(urban consortium),as well as urban-rural disparities(health management coalition).Patients'cost perceptions significantly differed across models(P<0.05).Conclusion The urban medical consortium demonstrated the lowest patient the average transaction costs,highlighting its institutional advantage in minimizing financial burdens.
10.Risk factors of acute Kemmochi type V anterior talofibular ligament injury in X-ray negative children and their predictive efficacy
Yangkun DING ; Jiazhi YU ; Pengfei MU ; Xiangfei LIU ; Tao LIU ; Lili MIAO
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(7):663-668
Objective:To explore the risk factors of acute Kemmochi type V anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL) injury in X-ray negative children and their predictive efficacy .Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 92 children with X-ray negative ATFL injury, who were treated at the outpatient department of Jinan Children′s Hospital from June 2023 to March 2025, including 55 boys and 37 girls, aged 5-14 years [8.8(7.0, 11.0)years]. The cause of injury was low-energy ankle sprain and X-ray examination showed no fracture, ie, X-ray negative. According to the Kemmochi classification for ATFL injury, the injury was classified as type V (Kemmochi type V group) in 42 patients and type I-IV (non-Kemmochi type V group) in 50. Gender, age, side of injury, time from injury to first visit, physical examination at the first visit [positive result of ankle inversion test, weight-bearing ability assessment, visual analogue score (VAS)], X-ray examination at the first visit (presence of os subfibulare), and musculoskeletal ultrasound examination at the first visit (swelling degree of ATFL, ankle joint effusion, enhanced blood flow signal of ATFL) were recorded in both groups. Univariate analysis and binary Logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate and determine the independent risk factors for X-ray negative Kemmochi type V ATFL injury in children. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each independent risk factor for Kemmochi type V ATFL injury. Results:Univariate analysis showed significant differences between the two groups in age, VAS, ATFL swelling degree, and ankle joint effusion ( P<0.05) but no significant differences in gender, side of injury, time from injury to the first visit, positive result of ankle inversion test, weight-bearing ability assessment, presence of os subfibulare or enhanced blood flow of ATFL ( P>0.05). Binary Logistic regression analysis indicated that age ( OR=0.79, 95% CI 0.65, 0.97, P<0.05) and ATFL swelling degree ( OR=6.97, 95% CI 1.38, 35.32, P<0.05) were significantly correlated with Kemmochi type V ATFL injury in X-ray negative children. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC for age and ATFL swelling degree were 0.65(95% CI 0.54, 0.75) and 0.78(95% CI 0.68, 0.86) and the AUC for age combined with ATFL swelling degree was 0.83(95% CI 0.74, 0.90). The optimal threshold values of age and ATFL swelling degree were 9.3 years and 1.0 mm. Conclusions:Age and ATFL swelling degree are independent risk factors for Kemmochi type V ATFL injury in X-ray negative children. Both age and ATFL swelling degree have relatively high independent predictive efficacy, and the combined predictive efficacy of the two is even higher.

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