2.Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.
Hongrui ZHAO ; Zhenping ZHAO ; Xuan YANG ; Yuchang ZHOU ; Ainan JIA ; Jiangmei LIU ; Peng YIN ; Yamin BAI ; Zhenxing YANG ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Xiujuan ZHANG
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(4):626-635
The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Mortality, Premature/trends*
;
Diabetes Mellitus/mortality*
;
Goals
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
3.Urban-rural disparities in mortality due to stroke subtypes in China and its provinces, 2015-2020.
Yi REN ; Jia YANG ; Peng YIN ; Wei LIU ; Zheng LONG ; Chen ZHANG ; Zixin WANG ; Haijie LIU ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Qingfeng MA ; Junwei HAO
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(11):1345-1354
BACKGROUND:
Death burden of stroke is severe with over one-third rural residents in China, but there is still a lack of specific national and high-quality reports on the urban-rural differences in stroke burden, especially for subtypes. We aimed to update the understanding of urban-rural differences in stroke deaths.
METHODS:
This is a descriptive observational study. Data from the national mortality surveillance system, which covers 323.8 million with 605 disease surveillance points (DSPs) across all 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China. All deaths from stroke as the underlying cause from 2015 to 2020 according to DSPs. Crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were estimated through DSPs. Average annual percentage change was used to explain the change in mortality rate.
RESULTS:
From 2015 to 2020, the majority of deaths from all stroke subtypes occurred in rural areas. There were significant differences between the changes of urban and rural ASMRs. On the whole, the changes in urban areas were evidently better, and the ASMR differences were basically expanding. Stroke ASMR in urban China decreased by 15.5%. The rural ASMR of ischemic stroke increased by 12.9%. The rural and urban ASMRs of intracerebral hemorrhage decreased by 24.9% and 27.4%, and those of subarachnoid hemorrhage decreased by 29.5% and 40.4%, respectively. The highest ASMRs of all stroke subtypes and the increasing trend of ischemic stroke ASMR make rural males the focus of stroke management.
CONCLUSIONS
The death burden of stroke varies greatly between urban and rural China. Rural residents face unique challenges.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Stroke/mortality*
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Urban Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Adult
4.Expert consensus: reducing free-sugar for caries prevention
Xiaojuan ZENG ; Xuenan LIU ; Min LIU ; Yan SI ; Ying ZHANG ; Jianqiang LAI ; Xianbin DING ; Chang SU ; Xiang SI ; Youguang LU ; Huancai LIN ; Shuguo ZHENG ; Wensheng RONG ; Minquan DU ; Xiaoyan OU ; Rongmin QIU ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Chunxiao WANG
Chinese Journal of Stomatology 2025;60(4):311-319
In modern society, sugary foods have become an integral part of many people′s lives. However, excessive sugar consumption has adverse effects on both overall health and oral health, serving as a contributing factor to the global increasing incidence in oral diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, obesity, and diabetes. In response to the health risks related to high-sugar diets, the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Dental Federation (FDI) have proposed initiatives and recommendations, with various governments implementing different policies and strategies to reduce sugar intake. Chinese government has also taken proactive measures. The "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)" initiative introduced by the State Council in 2019 established a crucial benchmark in limiting the average daily intake of added sugar to 25 g per person forward to 2030. Experts from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the field of oral health have meticulously examined the impacts of sugar reduction on oral health, as well as strategies, methods, and practical considerations related to reducing sugar intake through several meeting and wrote the "Expert consensus: reducing free-sugar for caries prevention", which was subsequently reviewed and revised based on the feedback from multiple stakeholders. They have conducted thorough analyses of global trends in sugar reduction and best practices to provide valuable insights to China for crafting effective policies and strategies on sugar reduction. This consensus mainly includes the classification of free sugars, the latest scientific evidence on dental caries, recommendations from WHO on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, nutrition labeling, advertising, food reform, adjusting supply systems, education, and promotion strategies, as well as sugar reduction actions taken by various governments around the world. Combining the actual situation in China, policy recommendations and authoritative popular science knowledge on sugar reduction for caries prevention to public are proposed to advocate for experts in multiple fields to focus on sugar reduction for caries prevention, promote the work process, and provide the scientific basis for oral health educators.
5.Impact of premature deaths from malignant tumors on life expectancy among Chinese residents, 1990-2021
Xinyi LIAO ; Yuchang ZHOU ; Jiangmei LIU ; Yunning LIU ; Maigeng ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(1):87-94
Objective:To analyze premature deaths from malignant tumors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, and to quantify the extent to which changes in premature mortality from malignant tumors affect life expectancy among people aged 30 to 69 years.Methods:Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data on selected causes of death in China, the malignant tumor mortality rate was estimated for Chinese residents aged 30-69 years from 1990 to 2021, and life expectancy and de-malignant cause-of-death life expectancy were calculated based on the abridged life table for the Chinese population. Arriaga's decomposition method was used to assess the extent to which changes in malignant tumors mortality contributed to changes in life expectancy for people aged 30-69 years and Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) for people aged 30- 69 years.Results:From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese people aged 30-69 years decreased from 154.29/100 000 to 98.58/100 000, and the change in the mortality rate of malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years contributed to the increase of life expectancy of about 0.78 years, and the largest contribution was made by the age group aged 55-59 years, which was about 0.17 years. Among the top 10 malignant tumors, the largest "positive contributions" are stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, and liver cancer, with a cumulative contribution of 0.55 years, while pancreatic cancer hurts the increase of overall life expectancy. The PGLEs of malignant tumors for the population aged 30-69 years will be 1.69 years in 2021, which is higher for men (1.97 years) than for women (1.32 years). The top 5 malignant tumors causing loss of life expectancy in the population were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and liver cancer, in that order. Compared with 1990, in 2021, PGLEs for malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years increased in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Yunnan and Guizhou, and the rest saw a decline, with the largest decrease in Anhui Province.Conclusions:The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese residents aged 30-69 years declined from 1990 to 2021;the change in mortality rate of malignant tumors showed a positive effect on the growth of life expectancy, the change in PGLEs of malignant tumors varied among provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and premature deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and gastrointestinal malignant tumors still need to be paid attention to.
6.Analysis and prediction of the disease burden of esophageal cancer by province in China from 1990 to 2019
Zhiyuan CHENG ; Tinglu WANG ; Yunfei JIAO ; Jinlei QI ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Rong WAN ; Zhaoshen LI ; Luowei WANG
Chinese Journal of Digestion 2025;45(3):156-161
Objective:To analyze the prevalence, trends in disease burden, and risk factors of esophageal cancer in various provinces of China from 1990 to 2019.Methods:Utilizing data from the 2019 global burden of disease study, the disease burden of esophageal cancer of 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, as well as Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region of China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed. The disease burden of esophageal cancer in China was described with the number (and incidence) of cases, the number (and mortality) of death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and their age-standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis and t-test were used to evaluate the annual percent change and the average annual percent change (AAPC). Scatter plots and Spearman correlation coefficients were performed to analyze the correlation between the disease burden of esophageal cancer and the socio-demographic index (SDI), as well as DALY in each province. Results:In 2019, there were 278 121 new cases of esophageal cancer and 257 316 deaths in China, increased by 60.13% and 45.70% respectively compared with 1990. The top 3 provinces with the highest age-standardized incidence of esophageal cancer were Sichuan Province (25.96/100 000), Jiangsu Province (23.80/100 000), and Fujian Province (21.98/100 000). From 1990 to 2019, except for Jiangsu Province and Sichuan Province, the age-standardized incidence in other provinces showed a declining trend. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs of esophageal cancer decreased in all provinces as well as in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions of China. The attributable risk factors of esophageal cancer caused deaths in China mainly included smoking, alcohol consumption, high body mass index, and low fruit intake, accounting for 91.38% of all the cases. With the increase of the SDI, the age-standardized rates of DALY in high incidence areas of esophageal cancer (Sichuan Province, Jiangsu Province, Fujian Province, Henan Province, Chongqing City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, and Anhui Province) demonstrated a trend of initially decline and then an upward. In contrast, the age-standardized rates of DALY of esophageal cancer in other provinces, as well as in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions of China, showed a trend of initially upward and then decline. The age-standardized rate of DALY of esophageal cancer showed a negative correlation with SDI ( r=-0.315, P<0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer generally demonstrated a downward trend. The AAPC was -1.43% ( t=-19.16, P<0.001) for incidence and -1.83% ( t=-29.63, P<0.001) for mortality, respectively. It is projected that by 2044, the actual number of new esophageal cancer cases in China will increase from 278 121 in 2019 to 291 206 in 2044, and the actual number of deaths will increase from 257 316 to 275 856. Conclusions:In recent years, the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China remains a serious status, with significant differences in geography and gender. It is projected that by 2044, the number of new esophageal cancer cases and deaths in China will continue to increase. Effective strategies and policies are urgently needed to reduce the disease burden.
7.Expert consensus: reducing free-sugar for caries prevention
Xiaojuan ZENG ; Xuenan LIU ; Min LIU ; Yan SI ; Ying ZHANG ; Jianqiang LAI ; Xianbin DING ; Chang SU ; Xiang SI ; Youguang LU ; Huancai LIN ; Shuguo ZHENG ; Wensheng RONG ; Minquan DU ; Xiaoyan OU ; Rongmin QIU ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Chunxiao WANG
Chinese Journal of Stomatology 2025;60(4):311-319
In modern society, sugary foods have become an integral part of many people′s lives. However, excessive sugar consumption has adverse effects on both overall health and oral health, serving as a contributing factor to the global increasing incidence in oral diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, obesity, and diabetes. In response to the health risks related to high-sugar diets, the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Dental Federation (FDI) have proposed initiatives and recommendations, with various governments implementing different policies and strategies to reduce sugar intake. Chinese government has also taken proactive measures. The "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)" initiative introduced by the State Council in 2019 established a crucial benchmark in limiting the average daily intake of added sugar to 25 g per person forward to 2030. Experts from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the field of oral health have meticulously examined the impacts of sugar reduction on oral health, as well as strategies, methods, and practical considerations related to reducing sugar intake through several meeting and wrote the "Expert consensus: reducing free-sugar for caries prevention", which was subsequently reviewed and revised based on the feedback from multiple stakeholders. They have conducted thorough analyses of global trends in sugar reduction and best practices to provide valuable insights to China for crafting effective policies and strategies on sugar reduction. This consensus mainly includes the classification of free sugars, the latest scientific evidence on dental caries, recommendations from WHO on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, nutrition labeling, advertising, food reform, adjusting supply systems, education, and promotion strategies, as well as sugar reduction actions taken by various governments around the world. Combining the actual situation in China, policy recommendations and authoritative popular science knowledge on sugar reduction for caries prevention to public are proposed to advocate for experts in multiple fields to focus on sugar reduction for caries prevention, promote the work process, and provide the scientific basis for oral health educators.
8.Impact of premature deaths from malignant tumors on life expectancy among Chinese residents, 1990-2021
Xinyi LIAO ; Yuchang ZHOU ; Jiangmei LIU ; Yunning LIU ; Maigeng ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(1):87-94
Objective:To analyze premature deaths from malignant tumors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, and to quantify the extent to which changes in premature mortality from malignant tumors affect life expectancy among people aged 30 to 69 years.Methods:Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data on selected causes of death in China, the malignant tumor mortality rate was estimated for Chinese residents aged 30-69 years from 1990 to 2021, and life expectancy and de-malignant cause-of-death life expectancy were calculated based on the abridged life table for the Chinese population. Arriaga's decomposition method was used to assess the extent to which changes in malignant tumors mortality contributed to changes in life expectancy for people aged 30-69 years and Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) for people aged 30- 69 years.Results:From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese people aged 30-69 years decreased from 154.29/100 000 to 98.58/100 000, and the change in the mortality rate of malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years contributed to the increase of life expectancy of about 0.78 years, and the largest contribution was made by the age group aged 55-59 years, which was about 0.17 years. Among the top 10 malignant tumors, the largest "positive contributions" are stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, and liver cancer, with a cumulative contribution of 0.55 years, while pancreatic cancer hurts the increase of overall life expectancy. The PGLEs of malignant tumors for the population aged 30-69 years will be 1.69 years in 2021, which is higher for men (1.97 years) than for women (1.32 years). The top 5 malignant tumors causing loss of life expectancy in the population were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and liver cancer, in that order. Compared with 1990, in 2021, PGLEs for malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years increased in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Yunnan and Guizhou, and the rest saw a decline, with the largest decrease in Anhui Province.Conclusions:The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese residents aged 30-69 years declined from 1990 to 2021;the change in mortality rate of malignant tumors showed a positive effect on the growth of life expectancy, the change in PGLEs of malignant tumors varied among provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and premature deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and gastrointestinal malignant tumors still need to be paid attention to.
9.Trend of Prostate Cancer Mortality in China from 2011 to 2020 and Prediction from 2021 to 2030
Zhe LIU ; Lin YANG ; Xuehua HU ; Jinlei QI ; Jiangmei LIU ; Lijun WANG ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Peng YIN
China Cancer 2025;34(3):171-177
[Purpose]To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020,and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030.[Methods]The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS)from 2011 to 2020,the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),years of life lost(YLL)and age-standardized YLL rate.Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the trend of change.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mor-tality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate can-cer in the future.Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality.[Results]The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105.The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105,respectively.From 2011 to 2020,the number of prostate cancer deaths,ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend,AAPC was 5.4%(95%CI:4.7%~6.1%),1.5%(95%CI:1.4%~1.6%)and 1.1%(95%CI:1.1%~1.2%),respective-ly.The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions.Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above.In 2030,it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105.Population aging,changes in age-specific mortality rates,and natural population growth accounted for 24.75%,2.77%,and 7.45%of the changes in total deaths of prostate can-cer,respectively.[Conclusion]The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China.Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer.
10.Trend of Prostate Cancer Mortality in China from 2011 to 2020 and Prediction from 2021 to 2030
Zhe LIU ; Lin YANG ; Xuehua HU ; Jinlei QI ; Jiangmei LIU ; Lijun WANG ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Peng YIN
China Cancer 2025;34(3):171-177
[Purpose]To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020,and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030.[Methods]The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS)from 2011 to 2020,the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),years of life lost(YLL)and age-standardized YLL rate.Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the trend of change.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mor-tality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate can-cer in the future.Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality.[Results]The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105.The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105,respectively.From 2011 to 2020,the number of prostate cancer deaths,ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend,AAPC was 5.4%(95%CI:4.7%~6.1%),1.5%(95%CI:1.4%~1.6%)and 1.1%(95%CI:1.1%~1.2%),respective-ly.The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions.Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above.In 2030,it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105.Population aging,changes in age-specific mortality rates,and natural population growth accounted for 24.75%,2.77%,and 7.45%of the changes in total deaths of prostate can-cer,respectively.[Conclusion]The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China.Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer.

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