Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

ObjectiveTo investigate the present situation of input, output, outcome and impact of all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia in China, and analyze how the input predict the output, outcome and impact. MethodsFrom March 1st to April 30th, 2025, a questionnaire survey was conducted on all registered community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia, covering four dimensions: input, output, outcome and impact. A total of 1 365 questionnaires were distributed. The input included four items: laws and policies, human resources, equipment and facilities, and rehabilitation information management. The output included two items: technical paths and benefits/effectiveness. The outcome included three items: coverage rates, rehabilitation interventions and functional results. The impact included two items: health and sustainability. Each item contained several questions, all of which were described in a positive way. Each question was scored from one to five. A lower score indicated that the situation of the community-based rehabilitation station was more in line with the content described in the question. Regression analysis was performed using the total score of each item of input dimension as independent variables, and the total scores of the output, outcome and impact dimensions as dependent variables. ResultsA total of 1 262 valid questionnaires were collected. The mean values of input, output, outcome and impact of community-based rehabilitation stations were 1.827 to 1.904, with coefficient of variation of 45.892% to 49.239%. The regression analysis showed that, rehabilitation information management, human resources, and laws and policies significantly predicted the output dimension (R² = 0.910, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, all four items in the input dimension predicted both the outcome (R² = 0.850, P < 0.001) and impact dimensions (R² = 0.833, P < 0.001). ConclusionInput, output, outcome and impact of the community-based rehabilitation stations in Inner Mongolia were generally in line with the content of the questions, although some imbalances were observed. Additionally, the input of community-based rehabilitation stations could significantly predict their output, outcome and impact.

BACKGROUND:One of the advantages of clear aligner treatment is molar distalization.However,tooth tilting movement and loss of anterior anchorage may occur during treatment.There are few studies on whether these problems can be improved by selecting clear aligners with different thicknesses and edges to improve the clinical treatment effect.OBJECTIVE:To analyze the control ability of clear aligners with different thickness and edges on the central incisor,lateral incisor,and second molar when pushing the maxillary second molar distally by three-dimensional finite element analysis.METHODS:Three-dimensional finite element analysis models of bilateral maxillary second molar distalization with clear aligner,maxillary dentition,periodontal ligament,and alveolar bone with different thicknesses and margins were established by Mimics,Geomagic Wrap,3-matic and SolidWorks software,respectively.There were 16 combinations of four thicknesses(0.4,0.5,0.625,and 0.75 mm)and four margins(scallop,straight,straight extension 2 mm and straight extension 4 mm).The data were imported into Ansys Workbench software for design and solution.The mean value,peak value and distribution of the periodontal ligament equivalent stress of the second molar,the equivalent stress and the maximum initial displacement of the second molar,and the control ability of each appliance on the second molar,central incisor,and lateral incisor were analyzed.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The mean equivalent stress of periodontal ligament of the second molar,the equivalent stress of the second molar and the maximum initial displacement of the second molar increased with the extension of the appliance edge and the increase of the thickness of the appliance in the 16 groups of models.(2)When the thickness of appliances was the same,the maximum equivalent stress of the second molar in the linear appliance group was the highest,and the maximum equivalent stress of the second molar in the linear extended appliance group was greater than that in the scallop appliance group.When the edge of the appliance was the same,the periodontal ligament equivalent stress peak of the second molar increased with the increase of the thickness of the appliance.The equivalent stress distribution in the periodontal ligament of the second molar in the linear extendable appliance group was more uniform than that in the scallop appliance group and the linear appliance group.(3)When the thickness of the appliance was the same,the scallop-shaped appliance had the worst control on the second molar.When the edge of the appliance was the same,with the increase of the thickness of the appliance,the control of the second molar by the linear extender appliance was gradually stronger than that by the linear appliance.The control of the central incisor was stronger and more stable with the linear extended 2 mm appliance,while the control of the lateral incisor was stronger and more stable with the linear appliance.(4)The results showed that when using clear aligners to push molars distally,extending the edge of the appliance could improve the control of the molars and reduce the tilting movement of the teeth.The design of a straight extension margin of 2 mm for the central incisor and a straight edge for the lateral incisor can enhance the control of the anchorage incisor and reduce the labial inclination of the anterior teeth.

BACKGROUND:Osteoarthritis is a chronic degenerative disease of the joints that can lead to disability.Its main pathological features are persistent inflammation and cartilage destruction.Triptolide has been used to treat a variety of chronic joint diseases.However,the mechanism of triptolide in the treatment of osteoarthritis has not been clarifiedOBJECTIVE:To identify the effective targets of triptolide in the treatment of osteoarthritis by network pharmacology,and to investigate the therapeutic effect of triptolide on osteoarthritis in the osteoarthritis model.METHODS:Network pharmacology was used to anticipate the potential targets and signaling pathways of triptolide in the treatment of osteoarthritis,and molecular docking technology was used to validate the core targets.A rat osteoarthritis model was established by anterior cruciate ligament transection.Eight weeks after modeling,the rats were administered with triptolide and sodium hyaluronate by intra-articular injection for 6 weeks.After 6 weeks of intervention,the pathological changes in rat knee joints were observed by hematoxylin-eosin staining and safranin O-fast green staining.The levels of inflammatory factors in rat serum were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.The expression of aggrecan,type Ⅰ platelet-responsive protein-containing desmoglein metalloproteinase 5,type Ⅱ collagen and matrix metalloproteinase 13 proteins in rat articular cartilage was tested by immunohistochemical staining.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The results of network pharmacology indicated that the target of triptolide may be related to the inhibition of the release of factors such as interleukin 6,tumor necrosis factor a,interleukin 1β,matrix metalloproteinase 9,and the over-activation of the nuclear factor-κB/JAK2-STAT3 signaling pathway.(2)Triptplide could reduce the degree of joint swelling in osteoarthritic rats;pathologically improve the articular cartilage and maintain the cartilage structure;decrease the serum levels of interleukin 6,tumor necrosis factor a,interleukin 1β,matrix metalloproteinase 9,and matrix metalloproteinase 3 in osteoarthritic rats;reduce the protein expression of matrix metalloproteinase 13 and type Ⅰ platelet-responsive protein-containing desmoglein metalloproteinase 5 in the articular cartilage;and increase the expression of type Ⅱ collagen and aggrecan in the cartilage,thereby achieving cartilage protection.

BACKGROUND:Sarcopenia is an age-related condition characterized by the loss of skeletal muscle mass,strength,and/or physical function.Currently,effective treatments for sarcopenia remain limited.A new therapeutic approach to improve symptoms and prognosis of sarcopenia patients clinically was important.OBJECTIVE:To explore the effects of canine adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes on a dexamethasone-induced sarcopenia in mice.METHODS:Mesenchymal stem cells were isolated and cultured from canine adipose tissue,and identified and functionally evaluated through flow cytometry and differentiation assays for osteogenesis,adipogenesis,and chondrogenesis.Subsequently,exosomes from adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells were extracted and characterized using transmission electron microscopy,western blot assay,and nanocoulter tracking analysis.In vitro,the effects of canine adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes on myotube growth and the expression of muscle atrophy-related genes were investigated using dexamethasone-induced C2C12 myotube atrophy and aging C2C12 models.In vivo,a dexamethasone-induced mouse sarcopenia model was established and received intraperitoneal or intravenous injection of canine adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells.Therapeutic efficacy was assessed through mouse rotarod performance,histopathological analysis,and muscle atrophy-related genes testing.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The isolated canine adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells highly expressed CD73,CD90,and CD105,and lowly expressed MHC-Ⅱ,CD14,CD19,CD34,and CD45,and successfully differentiated into osteoblasts,adipocytes,and chondrocytes in vitro.(2)The adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells-derived exosomes met the identification criteria in terms of particle size,electron microscopy morphology,and positive expression of specific markers.(3)Compared to the dexamethasone-induced C2C12 atrophy group,treatment with adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes promoted the recovery and growth of myotubes,inhibited the expression of muscle atrophy-related genes MuRF1 and Atrogin-1.(4)Compared to the aging C2C12 group,adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes significantly enhanced the recovery and growth of aged muscle tubes in aging cells.(5)Compared to the control group,the rotarod time in dexamethasone-induced sarcopenia model mice was significantly decreased(P＜0.01).After 7 days(P＜0.01,P＜0.01)and 10 days(P＜0.01,P＜0.05)of adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells treatment via intraperitoneal and intravenous injection,rotarod time was significantly increased,respectively.After 14 days,all treatment groups showed longer rotarod times than the model group,although with no significant differences between them.(6)Compared to the control group,the cross-sectional area of anterior tibial muscle in the model group was significantly reduced(P＜0.01),and it was significantly increased after intraperitoneal and intravenous administration of adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).(7)Compared to the model group,intraperitoneal and intravenous administration of adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells significantly inhibited the mRNA expression of MuRF1 and Atrogin-1 genes(P＜0.01,P＜0.01,P＜0.01,P＜0.01).The results indicated that adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells and their exosomes promoted recovery and growth of atrophic myotube cells by inhibiting the expression of muscle atrophy-related genes,and both intraperitoneal and intravenous administration of adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells provided good therapeutic effects on sarcopenia in mice.

BACKGROUND:Neutrophil extracellular traps and activated platelets are involved in the invasion,metastasis,growth,and angiogenesis of lung cancer,and are closely related to the development and prognosis of lung cancer.OBJECTIVE:To review the mechanism of neutrophil extracellular traps and activated platelets in lung cancer and their application in diagnosis,prognosis,and treatment of lung cancer.METHODS:"Platelet activation,lung neoplasms,extracellular traps,treatment"for English search terms and"lung cancer,neutrophil-extracellular traps,platelet activation,P-selectin,treatment"for Chinese search terms were searched in PubMed and CNKI databases.After reading the title and abstract of the literature,according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,63 articles with high relevance were finally included.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Formation of neutrophil extracellular traps and platelet activation were induced by lung tumor.(2)Neutrophil extracellular traps and activated platelets jointly promote the proliferation,growth and metastasis of lung cancer.(3)Neutrophil extracellular traps can be used as a novel biomarker for the diagnosis,prognosis and progression of lung cancer.(4)Targeting neutrophil extracellular traps and activating platelets can be used as potential therapies for lung cancer.

ObjectiveTo provide a reference for the rational clinical use of cold Chinese medicines by sorting and analyzing their properties， flavors， meridian tropism， primary therapeutic indications， methods of administration， dosages， and precautions as recorded in the 2020 edition of Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China （Chinese Pharmacopoeia）. MethodsCold Chinese medicines for internal and external use included in the 2020 edition of Chinese Pharmacopoeia were entered one by one， and their efficacy， properties， flavors， meridian tropism， methods of administration， dosages， and usage precautions were statistically classified and summarized to guide clinical medication use. ResultsA total of 259 cold Chinese medicines for internal use were included and categorized into 18 efficacy groups， mainly comprising heat-clearing drugs， water-excreting and dampness-draining drugs， and phlegm-resolving， cough- and asthma-relieving drugs. Their predominant flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， and they primarily entered the liver， lung， and stomach meridians. The main methods of administration included decocting first， grinding into powder for oral use， or preparing into pills or powders， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. A total of 83 cold Chinese medicines for external use were included， involving 16 efficacy categories. Their main flavors were bitter， sweet， and pungent， primarily entering the liver， lung， and large intestine meridians. The main external application methods were grinding into powder for topical use or preparing decoctions for fumigation and washing， with most dosages ranging from 9 to 15 g. Whether for internal or external use， cold Chinese medicines should be used with caution or contraindicated in pregnant women. ConclusionThe cold Chinese medicines included in the 2020 edition of the Chinese Pharmacopoeia are mainly suitable for patients with carbuncles， swellings， and coughs. However， in clinical practice， it is necessary to strictly follow the principles of syndrome differentiation and treatment， pay attention to administration methods and dosages， and use cold medicines rationally and effectively to improve clinical efficacy.

Abnormal activation of the Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription （JAK/STAT） signaling pathway is involved in the pathogenesis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma （DLBCL）. In recent years， inhibitors targeting JAK2 and STAT3 have emerged as promising therapeutic candidates in DLBCL. This review summarizes the efficacy and safety profiles of JAK2 inhibitors （e.g.， ruxolitinib） and STAT3 inhibitors （direct small-molecule inhibitors， the antisense oligonucleotide， and proteolysis targeting chimeras， etc.） in preclinical models and clinical trials. Accumulating evidence indicates that JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors exhibit antitumor activity and are generally well tolerated in a subset of DLBCL patients. Meanwhile， the development of novel drug delivery systems has significantly enhanced the stability， bioavailability， and targeting ability of the compounds. Furthermore， JAK2 and STAT3 inhibitors may exhibit synergistic effects when combined with other therapy strategies （such as combinations with B-cell receptor signaling pathway inhibitors， immunomodulators， or other targeted drugs）. However， current clinical applications are still in their early stages. Future research should concentrate on precision treatment strategies based on the genetic subtyping of DLBCL， and further refine the delivery systems for inhibitors as well as combination drug regimens to improve clinical outcomes.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.

Background The global prevalence of obesity is on the rise and is closely associated with various chronic non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There is a relative lack of long-term dynamic studies on compound obesity among occupational populations. Objective To explore the changing trends of compound obesity among different occupational groups aged 18–59 years in nine provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) of China from 1993 to 2018, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted weight management strategies for occupational populations. Methods A total of 34519 employed adults aged 18–59 years from nine waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey in1993, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015, and 2018 were included. Obesity types were determined according to the Chinese Adult Weight Management Guidelines. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) of compound obesity rates. Results From 1993 to 2018, the age-standardized compound obesity rate among the occupational population aged 18–59 years showed an upward trend (AAPC=6.24%, 95%CI: 5.09%, 7.41%, P<0.05). The AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, other occupational groups, service workers, and white-collar workers were 9.55% (7.51%, 11.64%), 6.18% (4.70%, 7.69%), 5.53% (2.27%, 8.90%), 4.07% (2.40%, 5.77%), and 3.89% (2.16%, 5.65%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Among males, the AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, other occupational groups, service workers, and white-collar workers were 11.52% (7.71%, 15.47%), 7.28% (6.18%, 8.40%), 5.92% (2.28%, 9.69%), 5.56% (2.11%, 9.12%), and 4.22% (2.33%, 6.15%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Among females, the AAPCs (95%CI) for age-standardized compound obesity rates among agricultural workers, blue-collar workers, and white-collar workers were 7.45% (6.22%, 8.69%), 3.72% (0.84%, 6.67%), and 2.41% (0.17%, 4.70%), respectively, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). A turning point was observed in the compound obesity rate among female white-collar workers in 2006, with an APC (95%CI) of 9.69% (5.24%, 14.33%) from 2006 to 2008, showing a statistically significant difference (P<0.05), while no significant trend was found from 1993 to 2006 (P>0.05). No significant trends were observed in the age-standardized compound obesity rates among females in other occupational groups and service workers (P>0.05). Conclusion The compound obesity rate among China's occupational population is increasing rapidly, with the growth rate among agricultural workers being particularly prominent. In 2018, male white-collar workers and female agricultural workers exhibit relatively high compound obesity rates, warranting focused attention. Although the overall growth rate among service workers is slower, the expanding workforce in this sector indicates that obesity remains a serious issue. Targeted occupational health and weight management interventions are needed in the future.