Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework.

Objective:To evaluate the effect of fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES) on clinical functional outcomes of patients with intensive care unit-acquired swallowing disorders (ICU-ASD).Methods:This retrospective cohort study analyzed clinical data of patients diagnosed with post-extubation dysphagia (PED) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) of the Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University from February 2020 to February 2025. Patients were categorized into a FEES group of 60 cases [34 males, 26 females, aged 37-80 years (median age 62 years)] and a control group without FEES of 58 cases [32 males, 26 females, aged 39-77 years (median age 61 years)].The patients in two groups received swallowing function and feeding training based on the results of the FEES assessment and the Volume-Viscosity Swallow Test-Clinical Version (VVST-CV), respectively. Clinical functional outcome measures included pneumonia incidence, clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), pneumonia severity index (PSI), Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS), and dietary method at discharge. χ2 test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Wilcoxon signed-rank test, were employed for statistical analysis of the outcome measures. Results:Compared with the control group, the FEES group had significantly lower aspiration pneumonia incidence at discharge [3.3% (2/60) vs 15.5% (9/58), χ2=5.179, P=0.023]. Regarding dietary methods,a significantly higher proportion of patients in the FEES group achieved complete oral feeding compared with the control group [75.0% (45/60) vs 67.3% (39/58), χ2=8.065, P<0.05]. After training, the FEES group had higher median FOIS scores than the control group (7.00 vs 6.00, Z=-2.370, P=0.018), and lower CPIS scores (2.50 vs 5.00, Z=-2.216, P=0.027) and PSI scores (59.00 vs 73.00, Z=-2.251, P=0.024). Within-group comparisons revealed that FOIS scores significantly improved post-training in both groups (both P<0.001). Conclusion:Early FEES examination for ICU patients with acquired swallowing disorders is associated with a lower incidence of pneumonia, improved swallowing function, and superior clinical functional outcomes.

Objective To compare the diagnostic performance of three breast MRI measurement methods—RECIST 1.1,the optimal method,and three-dimensional(3D)volumetric assessment—in assessing the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NAC)in breast cancer patients,with the objective of identifying the most clinically practical approach.Methods A total of 110 breast cancer patients who underwent NAC followed by surgical treatment between 2019 and 2023 were included in the study.Breast magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)was conducted within one week before and after the completion of NAC.Tumor response was evaluated using RECIST 1.1 criteria,widely recognized as the optimal method,as well as 3D volume measurement.Pathological response was determined according to the Miller-Payne grading system.Sensitivity,specificity,accuracy,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)were computed and compared using the DeLong test.Results The AUC values for RECIST 1.1,the optimal method,and 3D volumetric assessment were 0.768,0.795,and 0.883,respectively.The 3D volumetric assessment exhibited significantly better discriminative performance(P＜0.05),with the highest sensitivity(98.9％),specificity(77.8％),and accuracy(95.5％).Additionally,the optimal method demonstrated superior performance over RECIST 1.1 across multiple parameters.Conclusions 3D volumetric mea-surement demonstrates superior performance compared to RECIST 1.1 and the optimal method in evaluating the response to NAC,offering a more accurate and comprehensive assessment tool.Additionally,the optimal method shows advantages over RECIST 1.1 and may serve as a practical alternative in settings where 3D software is not available.

Objective:To describe the prevalence and distributions of mood disorder in Inner Mongolia Au-tonomous Region,and analyze the related risk factors.Methods:The multistage stratified sampling method with un-equal probability was used to select permanent residents aged 18 years and over in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used as a diagnostic tool.Mood disorders were di-agnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Single and multivariate analyses were used to investigate the related factors of mood disorders.Results:Totally,12 315 community residents were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-month prevalence and lifetime prevalence of mood disorder were 5.4％and 8.7％,respectively.Weighted 12-month prevalence of depressive disorder was 4.9％,and that of bipolar disorder was 0.3％.Among all subtypes of mood disorder,the 12-month prevalence rate of major depressive disorder(3.1％)was the highest.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female,unmarried,separated or divorced,unemployment,family history,other mental disorders,sleep disorders and chronic diseases(OR=1.56,2.80,2.07,1.42,13.46,7.97,3.23,2.13)were risk factors of mood disorder,while aged 65 years and over(OR=0.44)was protective factor of mood disorders.The lifetime consultation rate in patients with mood disorders was 15.5％,the rate of psychiatric consultation was 3.7％,the rate of medication was 1.8％.Con-clusion:It indicates that female residents and people who are unmarried,separated and divorced,unemployed,with family history,suffering from other mental disorders,suffering from sleep disorders,and suffering from chronic dis-eases may be high risk groups of mood disorders,and the utilization rate of health services is rather low in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91％of the total clinical isolates and 4.07％of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89％were isolated from children and 33.11％were isolated from adults.More than 90％of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79％in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06％were isolated from children and 19.94％isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0％.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.

Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.

Objective:To understand the genetic characteristics of varicella-zoster virus（VZV）prevalent in Qinghai province，China since 2020.Methods:A total of 54 pharyngeal swab specimens were collected from sporadic suspected varicella cases in Qinghai province in 2020，2023，and 2024. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used for etiological screening of the specimens. Sequencing of three genes，namely ORF22，ORF38，and ORF62，and single-nucleotide polymorphism（SNP）analysis were performed on VZV nucleic acid-positive specimens.Results:All 54 suspected varicella cases were diagnosed with VZV infection，and three gene sequences were successfully obtained from 53 specimens. The results of genotype identification showed that all VZV infection case specimens obtained in this study in Qinghai province were wild strains. Among them，4 specimens in 2020 were of clade 2 type；among 14 specimens in 2023，7 were of clade 2 type and the remaining 7 were of clade 5 type；among 35 specimens in 2024，27 were of clade5 type，5 were of clade 2 type，and 3 were of clade 4 type. The SNP results showed that in 2023 and 2024，one specimen each had an A→G base mutation at position 37 990，and in 2024，3 specimens had a T→C base mutation at position 37946. Among them，the sequences containing the former mutation have been prevalent and spread in multiple regions of China，and the latter has not been reported in other regions of China.Conclusion:From 2020 to 2024 in Qinghai province，at least three genotypes of VZV，namely clade 2 type，clade 5 type，and clade 4 type，co-prevailed，and the clade 5 genotype of VZV may become the dominant prevalent strain.

Turning to critical illness is a common stage of various diseases and injuries before death. Patients usually have complex health conditions, while the treatment process involves a wide range of content, along with high requirements for doctor′s professionalism and multi-specialty teamwork, as well as a great demand for time-sensitive treatments. However, this is not matched with critical care professionals and the current state of medical care in China. Telemedicine, which shortens the distance of medical professionals and the gap of disease diagnosis and treatments in various regions through electronic information, can effectively solve the current problem. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a standardized, high-quality visualization telemedicine round system .Therefore, experts have been organized to search domestic and foreign literature on telemedicine round for critically ill patients and to form this consensus based on clinical experiences so as to further improve the level of critical care treatments in regions.