Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework.

Objective To examine the changing prevalence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in 52 hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021.Methods A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were collected from 52 hospitals between January 1,2015 and December 31,2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility of the strains was tested using Kirby-Bauer method or automated antimicrobial susceptibility testing systems according to a unified protocol.The results were interpreted according to the breakpoints released in the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)guidelines(2023 edition).Results A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were isolated from all age groups,especially elderly patients.The proportion was 11.1％(1 032 strains)in children,significantly lower than the proportion in adults.About half(46.5％,4 310/9 261)of the strains were isolated from patients at least 60 years old and 42.3％(3 919/9 261)of the strains were isolated from young adults.Most isolates(71.1％)were isolated from sputum and respiratory secretions,followed by urine(10.7％)and blood samples(8.1％).B.cepacia isolates were highly susceptible to the five antimicrobial agents recommended in the CLSI M100 document(33rd edition,2023).B.cepacia isolates showed relatively higher resistance rates to meropenem and levofloxacin.However,the resistance rates to ceftazidime,trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole,and minocycline remained below 8.1％.The percentage of B.cepacia strains resistant to levofloxacin was the highest compared to other antibiotics in any of the three age groups(from 12.4％in the patients＜18 years old to 20.6％in the patients aged 60 years or older).Conclusions B.cepacia is one of the clinically important non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria.Accurate and timely reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility test results and ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance are helpful for rational prescription of antimicrobial agents and proper prevention and control of nosocomial infections.

Objective:To describe the prevalence of anxiety disorders and its distribution in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and to explore the relevant factors of anxiety disorders.Methods:From June 2019 to Decem-ber 2019,representative multi-stage disproportionate stratified sampling procedure was used to sample in residents aged 18 and over in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.All respondents were face-to-face interviewed by trained interviewers.Composite International Diagnostic Interview-3.0(CIDI-3.0)was used to diagnose anxiety disorders according to the criteria and definition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for statistical anal-ysis.Results:Totally 12 315 people were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-mouth prevalence rate of any anxiety disorder was 4.64％,and the lifetime prevalence rate was 6.25％.The weighted 12-month prevalence rate of anxiety disorders was higher in female than that in male(5.38％vs.3.92％).The rate was higher in rural resi-dents than that in urban residents(5.67％vs.3.95％).The rate was higher in people with chronic diseases than that in people without chronic diseases(6.81％vs.2.29％).Logistic regression analysis showed that unmarried(OR=2.32,95％CI:1.31-4.10),separated/divorced(OR=2.49,95％CI:1.33-4.67),in debt(OR=1.55,95％CI:1.04-2.32),chronic disease(OR=2.22,95％CI:1.39-3.53),family history of anxiety disorders(OR=12.05,95％CI:8.78-16.53),poor sleep(OR=2.64,95％CI:1.97-3.54)were risk factors of occurrence of anxiety disorders,while junior high school(OR=0.65,95％CI:0.44-0.96)was protective factor of anxiety disor-ders.Conclusion:Adults with chronic diseases,poor sleep,unmarried or separated/divorced,family history of anxi-ety disorders,and financial debt are at higher risk groups of anxiety disorder in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.

Objective:To describe the prevalence and distributions of mood disorder in Inner Mongolia Au-tonomous Region,and analyze the related risk factors.Methods:The multistage stratified sampling method with un-equal probability was used to select permanent residents aged 18 years and over in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Re-gion.The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used as a diagnostic tool.Mood disorders were di-agnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition(DSM-Ⅳ).Single and multivariate analyses were used to investigate the related factors of mood disorders.Results:Totally,12 315 community residents were interviewed in the survey.The weighted 12-month prevalence and lifetime prevalence of mood disorder were 5.4％and 8.7％,respectively.Weighted 12-month prevalence of depressive disorder was 4.9％,and that of bipolar disorder was 0.3％.Among all subtypes of mood disorder,the 12-month prevalence rate of major depressive disorder(3.1％)was the highest.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female,unmarried,separated or divorced,unemployment,family history,other mental disorders,sleep disorders and chronic diseases(OR=1.56,2.80,2.07,1.42,13.46,7.97,3.23,2.13)were risk factors of mood disorder,while aged 65 years and over(OR=0.44)was protective factor of mood disorders.The lifetime consultation rate in patients with mood disorders was 15.5％,the rate of psychiatric consultation was 3.7％,the rate of medication was 1.8％.Con-clusion:It indicates that female residents and people who are unmarried,separated and divorced,unemployed,with family history,suffering from other mental disorders,suffering from sleep disorders,and suffering from chronic dis-eases may be high risk groups of mood disorders,and the utilization rate of health services is rather low in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinically isolated Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021,and provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial agents.Methods Data of H.influenzae and M.catarrhalis strains isolated from 2015 to 2021 in CHINET program were collected for analysis,and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by disc diffusion method or automated systems according to the uniform protocol of CHINET.The results were interpreted according to the CLSI breakpoints in 2022.Beta-lactamases was detected by using nitrocefin disk.Results From 2015 to 2021,a total of 43 642 strains of Haemophilus species were isolated,accounting for 2.91％of the total clinical isolates and 4.07％of Gram-negative bacteria in CHINET program.Among the 40 437 strains of H.influenzae,66.89％were isolated from children and 33.11％were isolated from adults.More than 90％of the H.influenzae strains were isolated from respiratory tract specimens.The prevalence of β-lactamase was 53.79％in H.influenzae strains.The H.influenzae strains isolated from children showed higher resistance rate than the strains isolated from adults.Overall,779 strains of H.influenzae did not produce β-lactamase but were resistant to ampicillin(BLNAR).Beta-lactamase-producing strains showed significantly higher resistance rates to these antimicrobial agents than the β-lactamase-nonproducing strains.Of the 16 191 M.catarrhalis strains,80.06％were isolated from children and 19.94％isolated from adults.M.catarrhalis strains were mostly susceptible to both amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and cefuroxime,evidenced by resistance rate lower than 2.0％.Conclusions The emergence of antibiotic-resistant H.influenzae due to β-lactamase production poses a challenge for clinical anti-infective treatment.Therefore,it is very important to implement antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae and guide rational antibiotic use.All local clinical microbiology laboratories should actively improve antibiotic susceptibility testing and strengthen antibiotic resistance surveillance for H.influenzae.

Objective To understand the changing composition and antibiotic resistance of bacterial species in the clinical isolates from outpatient and emergency department(hereinafter referred to as outpatients)and inpatient children over time in various hospitals,and to provide laboratory evidence for rational antibiotic use.Methods The data on clinically isolated pathogenic bacteria and antimicrobial susceptibility of isolates from outpatients and inpatient children in the CHINET program from 2015 to 2021 were collected and analyzed.Results A total of 278 471 isolates were isolated from pediatric patients in the CHINET program from 2015 to 2021.About 17.1％of the strains were isolated from outpatients,primarily group A β-hemolytic Streptococcus,Escherichia coli,and Staphylococcus aureus.Most of the strains(82.9％)were isolated from inpatients,mainly SS.aureus,E.coli,and H.influenzae.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant S.aureus(MRSA)in outpatients(24.5％)was lower than that in inpatient children(31.5％).The MRSA isolates from outpatients showed lower resistance rates to the antibiotics tested than the strains isolated from inpatient children.The prevalence of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis or E.faecium and penicillin-resistant S.pneumoniae was low in either outpatients or inpatient children.S.pneumoniae,β-hemolytic Streptococcus and S.viridans showed high resistance rates to erythromycin.The prevalence of erythromycin-resistant group A β-hemolytic Streptococcus was higher in outpatients than that in inpatient children.The prevalence of β-lactamase-producing H.influenzae showed an overall upward trend in children,but lower in outpatients(45.1％)than in inpatient children(59.4％).The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(CRKpn),carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa(CRPae)and carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii(CRAba)was 14％,11.7％,47.8％in outpatients,but 24.2％,20.6％,and 52.8％in inpatient children,respectively.The prevalence of multidrug-resistant E.coli,K.pneumoniae,Proteus mirabilis,P.aeruginosa and A.baumannii strains was lower in outpatients than in inpatient children.The prevalence of fluoroquinolone-resistant E.coli,ESBLs-producing K.pneumoniae,ESBLs-producing P.mirabilis,carbapenem-resistant E.coli(CREco),CRKpn,and CRPae was lower in children in outpatients than in inpatient children,but the prevalence of CRAba in 2021 was higher than in inpatient children.Conclusions The distribution of clinical isolates from children is different between outpatients and inpatients.The prevalence of MRSA,ESBL,and CRO was higher in inpatient children than in outpatients.Antibiotics should be used rationally in clinical practice based on etiological diagnosis and antimicrobial susceptibility test results.Ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance and prevention and control of hospital infections are crucial to curbing bacterial resistance.

Objective To investigate the changing antibiotic resistance profiles of E.coli isolated from patients in the 52 hospitals participating in the CHINET program from 2015 to 2021.Methods Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested for clinical isolates of E.coli according to the unified protocol of CHINET program.WHONET 5.6 and SPSS 20.0 software were used for data analysis.Results Atotal of 289 760 nonduplicate clinical strains ofE.coli were isolated from 2015 to 2021,mainly from urine samples(44.7±3.2)％.The proportion of E.coli strains isolated from urine samples was higher in females than in males(59.0％vs 29.5％).The proportion of E.coli strains isolated from respiratory tract and cerebrospinal fluid samples was significantly higher in children than in adults(16.7％vs 7.8％,0.8％vs 0.1％,both P＜0.05).The isolates from internal medicine department accounted for the largest proportion(28.9±2.8)％with an increasing trend over years.Overall,the prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli and carbapenem resistant E.coli(CREco)was 55.9％and 1.8％,respectively during the 7-year period.The prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli was the highest in tertiary hospitals each year from 2015 to 2021 compared to secondary hospitals.The prevalence of CREco was higher in children's hospitals compared to secondary and tertiary hospitals each year from 2015 to 2021.The prevalence of ESBLs-producing E.coli in tertiary hospitals and children's hospitals and the prevalence of CREco in children's hospitals showed a decreasing trend over the 7-year period.The prevalence of CREco in secondary and tertiary hospitals increased slowly.Antibiotic resistance rates changed slowly from 2015 to 2021.Carbapenem drugs(imipenem,meropenem)were the most active drugs amongβ-lactams against E.coli(resistance rate≤2.1％).The resistance rates of E.coli to β-lactam/β-lactam inhibitor combinations(piperacillin-tazobactam,cefoperazone-sulbactam),aminoglycosides(amikacin),nitrofurantoin and fosfomycin(for urinary isolates only)were all less than 10％.The resistance rate of E.coli strains to antibiotics varied with the level of hospitals and the departments where the strains were isolated,especially for cefazolin and ciprofloxacin,to which the resistance rate of E.coli strains from children in non-ICU departments was significantly lower than that of the strains isolated from other departments(P＜0.05).The E.coli isolates from ICU showed higher resistance rate to most antimicrobial agents tested(excluding tigecycline)than the strains isolated from other departments.The E.coli strains isolated from tertiary hospitals showed higher resistance rates to the antimicrobial agents tested(excluding tigecycline,polymyxin B,cefepime and carbapenems)than the strains from secondary hospitals and children's hospitals.Conclusions E.coli is an important pathogen causing clinical infection.More than half of the clinical isolates produced ESBL.The prevalence of CREco is increasing in secondary and tertiary hospitals over the 7-year period even though the overall prevalence is still low.This is an issue of concern.

Objective To compare the diagnostic performance of three breast MRI measurement methods—RECIST 1.1,the optimal method,and three-dimensional(3D)volumetric assessment—in assessing the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy(NAC)in breast cancer patients,with the objective of identifying the most clinically practical approach.Methods A total of 110 breast cancer patients who underwent NAC followed by surgical treatment between 2019 and 2023 were included in the study.Breast magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)was conducted within one week before and after the completion of NAC.Tumor response was evaluated using RECIST 1.1 criteria,widely recognized as the optimal method,as well as 3D volume measurement.Pathological response was determined according to the Miller-Payne grading system.Sensitivity,specificity,accuracy,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)were computed and compared using the DeLong test.Results The AUC values for RECIST 1.1,the optimal method,and 3D volumetric assessment were 0.768,0.795,and 0.883,respectively.The 3D volumetric assessment exhibited significantly better discriminative performance(P＜0.05),with the highest sensitivity(98.9％),specificity(77.8％),and accuracy(95.5％).Additionally,the optimal method demonstrated superior performance over RECIST 1.1 across multiple parameters.Conclusions 3D volumetric mea-surement demonstrates superior performance compared to RECIST 1.1 and the optimal method in evaluating the response to NAC,offering a more accurate and comprehensive assessment tool.Additionally,the optimal method shows advantages over RECIST 1.1 and may serve as a practical alternative in settings where 3D software is not available.

Objective:To analyze the temporal distribution of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Shenzhen and provide evidence for the prevention and control of OID.Methods:The incidence data of OID in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023 were collected. The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL), seasonal index method, concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the incidence trend and temporal distribution of OID.Results:A total of 477 611 cases of OID were reported in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence rate of 260.19/100 000 showing a fluctuating upward trend. The seasonal index method indicated that October-January was period with high incidence of OID in Shenzhen and the seasonal intensity began to decrease in 2020. STL revealed an obvious incidence peak in winter. The concentration method showed that OID had a certain seasonality before 2018 except 2016, but the seasonality was not obvious after 2018. The circular distribution results showed that r was 0.05, mean angle ā was 1.92° and angular standard deviation s was 141.93° ( Z=1 033.37, P<0.001), with the peak on January 1 st and the high incidence period from August 11 th to May 25 th. Conclusions:OID had a certain degree of seasonality in Shenzhen, with an obvious incidence peak in winter. Since the seasonal intensity of OID decreased after 2018, the surveillance, early warning and risk assessment of OID should be continued, and prevention and control measures should be adjusted timely according to the change in the characteristics of the epidemic.