Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system for the intensive care unit (ICU) and evaluate its application effect in ICU shift handovers. METHODS: A research and development team was established, consisting of 1 department director, 1 head nurse, 3 information technology engineers, 3 nurses, and 2 doctors. Team members were assigned responsibilities including overall coordination and planning, platform design and maintenance, pre-application training, collection and organization of clinical feedback, and research investigation respectively. A digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was developed for ICU based on the Shannon-Weaver linear transmission model. This innovative system integrated automated data collection, intelligent dynamic monitoring, multidimensional condition analysis and visual reporting functions. A cloud platform was used to gather data from multi-parameter vital signs monitors, infusion pumps, ventilators and other devices. Artificial intelligence algorithms were employed to standardize and analyze the data, providing personalized recommendations for healthcare professionals. A self-controlled before-after method was adopted. Before the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system (from December 2023 to March 2024), the traditional verbal bedside handover was used; from June 2024 to March 2025, the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was applied for shift handovers. Questionnaires before the application of the shift handover system were collected in April 2024, and those after the application were collected in April 2025. The shift handover time, handover quality (scored by the nursing handover evaluation scale), satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication (scored by the ICU doctor-nurse scale) before and after the application of the handover system were compared, and nurses' satisfaction with the shift handover system (scored by the clinical nursing information system effectiveness evaluation scale) was investigated. RESULTS: After the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system, the shift handover time was significantly shorter than that before the application [minutes: 20 (15, 25) vs. 30 (22, 40)], the handover quality was significantly higher than that before the application [score: 84.0 (78.0, 88.5) vs. 71.0 (55.0, 79.0)], and the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication was also significantly higher than that before the application (score: 84.58±6.79 vs. 74.50±11.30). All differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). In addition, the nurses' system effectiveness evaluation scale score was 102.30±10.56, which indicated that nurses had a very high level of satisfaction with the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system. CONCLUSIONS The application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system can shorten the shift handover time, improve the handover quality, and enhance the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication. Nurses have a high level of satisfaction with this system.
Intensive Care Units ; Humans ; Patient Handoff ; Artificial Intelligence ; Algorithms

Objective:To study the current status of longitudinal extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) in extremely preterm infants (EPIs) and to develop a prediction model based on clinical data from multiple NICUs.Methods:From January 2017 to December 2018, EPIs admitted to 32 NICUs in North China were retrospectively studied. Their general conditions, nutritional support, complications during hospitalization and weight changes were reviewed. Weight loss between birth and discharge > 1SD was defined as longitudinal EUGR. The EPIs were assigned into longitudinal EUGR group and non-EUGR group and their nutritional support and weight changes were compared. The EPIs were randomly assigned into the training dataset and the validation dataset with a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate Cox regression analysis and multiple regression analysis were used in the training dataset to select the independent predictive factors. The best-fitting Nomogram model predicting longitudinal EUGR was established based on Akaike Information Criterion. The model was evaluated for discrimination efficacy, calibration and clinical decision curve analysis.Results:A total of 436 EPIs were included in this study, with a mean gestational age of (26.9±0.9) weeks and a birth weight of (989±171) g. The incidence of longitudinal EUGR was 82.3%(359/436). Seven variables (birth weight Z-score, weight loss, weight growth velocity, the proportion of breast milk ≥75% within 3 d before discharge, invasive mechanical ventilation ≥7 d, maternal antenatal corticosteroids use and bronchopulmonary dysplasia) were selected to establish the prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training dataset and the validation dataset were 0.870 (95% CI 0.820-0.920) and 0.879 (95% CI 0.815-0.942), suggesting good discrimination efficacy. The calibration curve indicated a good fit of the model ( P>0.05). The decision curve analysis showed positive net benefits at all thresholds. Conclusions:Currently, EPIs have a high incidence of longitudinal EUGR. The prediction model is helpful for early identification and intervention for EPIs with higher risks of longitudinal EUGR. It is necessary to expand the sample size and conduct prospective studies to optimize and validate the prediction model in the future.

Objective:To observe the therapeutic effect of intraocular lens (IOL) protected phacoemulsification (PHACO) in patients with hard nucleus cataract.Methods:A randomized controlled clinical study was conducted.A total of consecutive 120 patients (120 eyes) with hard nucleus cataract of Emery grade Ⅳ or Ⅴ were enrolled from January 2019 to May 2022.The patients were randomly divided into PHACO group receiving routine PHACO, IOL protected PHACO group receiving PHACO under IOL protection, and extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) group receiving ECCE, with 40 cases (40 eyes) in each group.Finally, 99 patients completed the follow-up, including 30 cases (30 eyes) in PHACO group, 35 cases (35 eyes) in IOL protected PHACO group, and 34 cases (34 eyes) in ECCE group.The total operation time, intraoperative PHACO time and cumulative energy release of each patient were recorded.The corneal endothelial cell density (ECD), coefficient of variation in endothelial cell area (CV), hexagonal endothelial cell ratio (6A), corneal astigmatism and the number of eyes with different grades of uncorrected visual acuity were measured and compared after 3-month follow-up.The intraoperative and postoperative complications were recorded.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of Yanbian University Hospital (NO.2023002).Patients were informed of study content and purpose and signed a consent form before treatment.Results:There was no significant difference in ultrasonic energy and time between PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group ( P=0.691, 0.982).The total operation time was (38.81±2.73) and (36.45±3.45) minutes in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group, significantly shorter than (69.60±4.35) minutes in ECCE group (both at P<0.001).There was no significant difference in age, sex, lens nucleus hardness and other baseline data among the three groups before operation (all at P>0.05).Three months after operation, the number of patients with higher uncorrected visual acuity in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group was larger than that in ECCE group ( P=0.006, 0.007).The ECD and 6A in IOL protected PHACO group were (2 155.57±177.88)/mm 2 and (41.31±5.18)%, respectively, which were significantly higher than (1 912.64±224.11)/mm 2 and (36.18±3.27)% in PHACO group, and the CV in IOL protected PHACO group was (50.34±5.90)%, which was lower than (55.67±3.30)% in PHACO group, showing statistically significant differences ( P=0.007, 0.003, 0.005).At 1 week and 3 months after the operation, the corneal astigmatism was significantly lower in IOL-protected PHACO group than in ECCE group, but higher than in PHACO group, and the difference were statistically significant (all at P<0.05). Conclusions:Compared with conventional PHACO, IOL-protected PHACO can effectively reduce the damage of corneal endothelium caused by ultrasonic energy, shorten the operation time and reduce postoperative inflammatory reaction compared with ECCE, and does not significantly increase postoperative corneal astigmatism.IOL-protected PHACO is an effective improved surgical method for patients with hard nucleus cataract.

Objective:To investigate the protective effects and mechanism of Shenyan 1 Prescription on renal fibrosis of unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO) rats through TGF- β 1/Smad homologous 3 (Smad3) pathway regulating ferroptosis.Methods:Totally 48 male SD rats were divided into four groups: sham-operation group, UUO model group, and Shenyan 1 Prescription low-(10 drug/kg) , and high-dosage (20 crude drug/kg) groups according to random number table method, with 12 rats in each group. The UUO model was induced by the method of unilateral ureteral obstruction except for those sham-operation group. After modeling, rats received corresponding drugs or normal saline by gavage for 4 weeks, once per day. After 4 weeks, the body mass and the left kidney weight were measured. The 24 h urine protein and the levels of serum albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were detected by biochemical analysis method; the ROS level in renal tissue was measured using a chemical fluorescence assay kit, and the SOD and MDA levels in left renal tissue of rats were measured using ELISA method; the morphology of renal tissue and the specific blue staining of hemosiderin were observed using HE and Prussian blue staining methods, respectively; the expressions of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), Smad3, glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4), and solute carrier family 1 member 5 (SLC1A5) were detected by Western blot.Results:Compared with the model group, the 24 h urinary protein excretion in Shenyan 1 Prescription high-dosage group decreased ( P<0.05), the serum ALB level increased ( P<0.05), the ALT level decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of SLC1A5 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05); the left kidney weight/body decreased in Shenyan 1 Prescription low- and high-dosage groups ( P<0.05); the levels of serum ROS and MDA decreased ( P<0.05), and the activity of SOD significantly increased ( P<0.05); the expressions of TGF-β1 and Smad3 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of GPX4 increased ( P<0.05), and the renal pathological injury and ion deposition were improved. Conclusion:Shenyan 1 Prescription has a protective effect on the structure and function of renal tissues in UUO rats through regulating ferroptosis via inhibition of the TGF-β1/ Smad3 pathway to inhibit renal fibrosis of UUO rats.

Objective To monitor the susceptibility of clinical isolates to antimicrobial agents in tertiary hospitals in major regions of China in 2022.Methods Clinical isolates from 58 hospitals in China were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility using a unified protocol based on disc diffusion method or automated testing systems.Results were interpreted using the 2022 Clinical &Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)breakpoints.Results A total of 318 013 clinical isolates were collected from January 1,2022 to December 31,2022,of which 29.5％were gram-positive and 70.5％were gram-negative.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant strains in Staphylococcus aureus,Staphylococcus epidermidis and other coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species(excluding Staphylococcus pseudintermedius and Staphylococcus schleiferi)was 28.3％,76.7％and 77.9％,respectively.Overall,94.0％of MRSA strains were susceptible to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and 90.8％of MRSE strains were susceptible to rifampicin.No vancomycin-resistant strains were found.Enterococcus faecalis showed significantly lower resistance rates to most antimicrobial agents tested than Enterococcus faecium.A few vancomycin-resistant strains were identified in both E.faecalis and E.faecium.The prevalence of penicillin-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae was 94.2％in the isolates from children and 95.7％in the isolates from adults.The resistance rate to carbapenems was lower than 13.1％in most Enterobacterales species except for Klebsiella,21.7％-23.1％of which were resistant to carbapenems.Most Enterobacterales isolates were highly susceptible to tigecycline,colistin and polymyxin B,with resistance rates ranging from 0.1％to 13.3％.The prevalence of meropenem-resistant strains decreased from 23.5％in 2019 to 18.0％in 2022 in Pseudomonas aeruginosa,and decreased from 79.0％in 2019 to 72.5％in 2022 in Acinetobacter baumannii.Conclusions The resistance of clinical isolates to the commonly used antimicrobial agents is still increasing in tertiary hospitals.However,the prevalence of important carbapenem-resistant organisms such as carbapenem-resistant K.pneumoniae,P.aeruginosa,and A.baumannii showed a downward trend in recent years.This finding suggests that the strategy of combining antimicrobial resistance surveillance with multidisciplinary concerted action works well in curbing the spread of resistant bacteria.

Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of the common pathogens isolated from urine from 2015 to 2021 in the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program.Methods The bacterial strains were isolated from urine and identified routinely in 51 hospitals across China in the CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program from 2015 to 2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility was determined by Kirby-Bauer method,automatic microbiological analysis system and E-test according to the unified protocol.Results A total of 261 893 nonduplicate strains were isolated from urine specimen from 2015 to 2021,of which gram-positive bacteria accounted for 23.8％(62 219/261 893),and gram-negative bacteria 76.2％(199 674/261 893).The most common species were E.coli(46.7％),E.faecium(10.4％),K.pneumoniae(9.8％),E.faecalis(8.7％),P.mirabilis(3.5％),P.aeruginosa(3.4％),SS.agalactiae(2.6％),and E.cloacae(2.1％).The strains were more frequently isolated from inpatients versus outpatients and emergency patients,from females versus males,and from adults versus children.The prevalence of ESBLs-producing strains in E.coli,K.pneumoniae and P.mirabilis was 53.2％,52.8％and 37.0％,respectively.The prevalence of carbapenem-resistant strains in E.coli,K.pneumoniae,P.aeruginosa and A.baumannii was 1.7％,18.5％,16.4％,and 40.3％,respectively.Lower than 10％of the E.faecalis isolates were resistant to ampicillin,nitrofurantoin,linezolid,vancomycin,teicoplanin and fosfomycin.More than 90％of the E.faecium isolates were ressitant to ampicillin,levofloxacin and erythromycin.The percentage of strains resistant to vancomycin,linezolid or teicoplanin was＜2％.The E.coli,K.pneumoniae,P.aeruginosa and A.baumannii strains isolated from ICU inpatients showed significantly higher resistance rates than the corresponding strains isolated from outpatients and non-ICU inpatients.Conclusions E.coli,Enterococcus and K.pneumoniae are the most common pathogens in urinary tract infection.The bacterial species and antimicrobial resistance of urinary isolates vary with different populations.More attention should be paid to antimicrobial resistance surveillance and reduce the irrational use of antimicrobial agents.

Objective To understand the distribution and changing resistance profiles of clinical isolates of Enterococcus in hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021.Methods Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was conducted for the clinical isolates of Enterococcus according to the unified protocol of CHINET program by automated systems,Kirby-Bauer method,or E-test strip.The results were interpreted according to the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)breakpoints in 2021.WHONET 5.6 software was used for statistical analysis.Results A total of 124 565 strains of Enterococcus were isolated during the 7-year period,mainly including Enterococcus faecalis(50.7％)and Enterococcus faecalis(41.5％).The strains were mainly isolated from urinary tract specimens(46.9％±2.6％),and primarily from the patients in the department of internal medicine,surgery and ICU.E.faecium and E.faecalis strains showed low level resistance rate to vancomycin,teicoplanin and linezolid(≤3.6％).The prevalence of vancomycin-resistant E.faecalis and E.faecium was 0.1％and 1.3％,respectively.The prevalence of linezolid-resistant E.faecalis increased from 0.7％in 2015 to 3.4％in 2021,while the prevalence of linezolid-resistant E.faecium was 0.3％.Conclusions The clinical isolates of Enterococcus were still highly susceptible to vancomycin,teicoplanin,and linezolid,evidenced by a low resistance rate.However,the prevalence of linezolid-resistant E.faecalis was increasing during the 7-year period.It is necessary to strengthen antimicrobial resistance surveillance to effectively identify the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria and curb the spread of resistant pathogens.