Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system for the intensive care unit (ICU) and evaluate its application effect in ICU shift handovers. METHODS: A research and development team was established, consisting of 1 department director, 1 head nurse, 3 information technology engineers, 3 nurses, and 2 doctors. Team members were assigned responsibilities including overall coordination and planning, platform design and maintenance, pre-application training, collection and organization of clinical feedback, and research investigation respectively. A digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was developed for ICU based on the Shannon-Weaver linear transmission model. This innovative system integrated automated data collection, intelligent dynamic monitoring, multidimensional condition analysis and visual reporting functions. A cloud platform was used to gather data from multi-parameter vital signs monitors, infusion pumps, ventilators and other devices. Artificial intelligence algorithms were employed to standardize and analyze the data, providing personalized recommendations for healthcare professionals. A self-controlled before-after method was adopted. Before the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system (from December 2023 to March 2024), the traditional verbal bedside handover was used; from June 2024 to March 2025, the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system was applied for shift handovers. Questionnaires before the application of the shift handover system were collected in April 2024, and those after the application were collected in April 2025. The shift handover time, handover quality (scored by the nursing handover evaluation scale), satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication (scored by the ICU doctor-nurse scale) before and after the application of the handover system were compared, and nurses' satisfaction with the shift handover system (scored by the clinical nursing information system effectiveness evaluation scale) was investigated. RESULTS: After the application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system, the shift handover time was significantly shorter than that before the application [minutes: 20 (15, 25) vs. 30 (22, 40)], the handover quality was significantly higher than that before the application [score: 84.0 (78.0, 88.5) vs. 71.0 (55.0, 79.0)], and the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication was also significantly higher than that before the application (score: 84.58±6.79 vs. 74.50±11.30). All differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). In addition, the nurses' system effectiveness evaluation scale score was 102.30±10.56, which indicated that nurses had a very high level of satisfaction with the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system. CONCLUSIONS The application of the ICU digital intelligent multimodal shift handover system can shorten the shift handover time, improve the handover quality, and enhance the satisfaction with doctor-nurse communication. Nurses have a high level of satisfaction with this system.
Intensive Care Units ; Humans ; Patient Handoff ; Artificial Intelligence ; Algorithms

Objective Exploring the feasibility and effectiveness of collaborative visits between doctors and nurses in tra-ditional Chinese medicine specialty nursing clinics for spleen and stomach diseases.Methods Using the principle of hospital se-lection to determine the visiting caregiver,and collaborating with specialist physicians to establish a specialized Traditional Chi-nese Medicine specialty nursing clinic for spleen and stomach diseases.By conducting a questionnaire survey on patients who visi-ted the Traditional Chinese Medicine specialty nursing outpatient clinic for spleen and stomach disease in 2023 through medical and nursing collaboration and in 2019 through individual visits by caregivers,we analyzed their satisfaction with medical nursing services.Results Since the implementation of collaborative visits between traditional Chinese medicine specialty nursing clinics for spleen and stomach diseases,the number of nursing clinics has increased from 35 people/month in 2019 to 148 people/month in 2023,and the visit time has been increased from 1 time/week in 2019 to 3 times/week in 2023.The satisfaction level of medi-cal nursing services among patients who received collaborative visits from nursing clinics in 2023 was higher than that of patients who received individual visits from nurses in 2019,and the difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05).Conclusion The implementation of collaborative outpatient visits for traditional Chinese medicine specialty nursing in the spleen and stomach dis-ease specialty has expanded the connotation of traditional Chinese medicine nursing services,met the growing individualized and diversified needs of patients,and improved their satisfaction with medical nursing services.

Objective To investigate the therapeutic effects of Isaria felina derived from Cordyceps sinensis combined with cyclophosphamide(CTX)in hepatoma H22 tumor-bearing mice.Methods An H22 tumor-bearing mouse model was established and mice were divided randomly into a normal control group(NC group,distilled water),model control group(MC group,distilled water),positive control group(CTX group,25 mg/kg),Isaria felina group(IF group,400 mg/kg),and combined administration group(IF+CTX group,IF 400 mg/kg+CTX 25 mg/kg),with 5 mice in each group.Distilled water and IF were administered by gavage,and CTX was administered by intraperitoneal injection.The administration cycle was 10 days.At the end of the experiment,the mean tumor volume and weight,tumor inhibition rate,q value,and immune organ index were calculated,and routine blood indexes and cytokine levels were determined.Histopathological changes in tumor tissues were observed by HE staining.Results The tumor volume and mass were significantly lower in mice in each treatment group compared with those in mice in the MC group(P＜0.05).The tumor inhibition rates in the CTX,IF,and IF+CTX groups were 49.3%,34.2%,and 72.8%,respectively,and the q value was 1.09.The numbers of white blood cells,Lymph,and platelets were significantly higher in the IF+CTX group than in the CTX group(P＜0.05).The spleen index was significantly higher in the MC group compared with that in the NC group,and significantly lower in the IF+CTX group compared with that in the MC group(P＜0.05).Serum interferon-γ levels were significantly lower in the MC group than in the NC group,and were significantly higher in the IF and IF+CTX groups compared with those in the MC and CTX groups(P＜0.05).Pathologically,tumor cells in the MC group grew well and were numerous and closely arranged,while cells in the CTX,IF,and IF+CTX groups were arranged loosely,with focal necrosis and nuclear pyknosis of necrotic cells in many places.Conclusions The combination of IF and CTX has an additive anti-tumor effect on H22 tumor-bearing mice,which can alleviate immunosuppression and have an immunomodulatory function.

Objective:To investigate the protective effects and mechanism of Shenyan 1 Prescription on renal fibrosis of unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO) rats through TGF- β 1/Smad homologous 3 (Smad3) pathway regulating ferroptosis.Methods:Totally 48 male SD rats were divided into four groups: sham-operation group, UUO model group, and Shenyan 1 Prescription low-(10 drug/kg) , and high-dosage (20 crude drug/kg) groups according to random number table method, with 12 rats in each group. The UUO model was induced by the method of unilateral ureteral obstruction except for those sham-operation group. After modeling, rats received corresponding drugs or normal saline by gavage for 4 weeks, once per day. After 4 weeks, the body mass and the left kidney weight were measured. The 24 h urine protein and the levels of serum albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were detected by biochemical analysis method; the ROS level in renal tissue was measured using a chemical fluorescence assay kit, and the SOD and MDA levels in left renal tissue of rats were measured using ELISA method; the morphology of renal tissue and the specific blue staining of hemosiderin were observed using HE and Prussian blue staining methods, respectively; the expressions of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), Smad3, glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4), and solute carrier family 1 member 5 (SLC1A5) were detected by Western blot.Results:Compared with the model group, the 24 h urinary protein excretion in Shenyan 1 Prescription high-dosage group decreased ( P<0.05), the serum ALB level increased ( P<0.05), the ALT level decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of SLC1A5 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05); the left kidney weight/body decreased in Shenyan 1 Prescription low- and high-dosage groups ( P<0.05); the levels of serum ROS and MDA decreased ( P<0.05), and the activity of SOD significantly increased ( P<0.05); the expressions of TGF-β1 and Smad3 in renal tissue decreased ( P<0.05), and the expression of GPX4 increased ( P<0.05), and the renal pathological injury and ion deposition were improved. Conclusion:Shenyan 1 Prescription has a protective effect on the structure and function of renal tissues in UUO rats through regulating ferroptosis via inhibition of the TGF-β1/ Smad3 pathway to inhibit renal fibrosis of UUO rats.

Objective:To study the current status of longitudinal extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) in extremely preterm infants (EPIs) and to develop a prediction model based on clinical data from multiple NICUs.Methods:From January 2017 to December 2018, EPIs admitted to 32 NICUs in North China were retrospectively studied. Their general conditions, nutritional support, complications during hospitalization and weight changes were reviewed. Weight loss between birth and discharge > 1SD was defined as longitudinal EUGR. The EPIs were assigned into longitudinal EUGR group and non-EUGR group and their nutritional support and weight changes were compared. The EPIs were randomly assigned into the training dataset and the validation dataset with a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate Cox regression analysis and multiple regression analysis were used in the training dataset to select the independent predictive factors. The best-fitting Nomogram model predicting longitudinal EUGR was established based on Akaike Information Criterion. The model was evaluated for discrimination efficacy, calibration and clinical decision curve analysis.Results:A total of 436 EPIs were included in this study, with a mean gestational age of (26.9±0.9) weeks and a birth weight of (989±171) g. The incidence of longitudinal EUGR was 82.3%(359/436). Seven variables (birth weight Z-score, weight loss, weight growth velocity, the proportion of breast milk ≥75% within 3 d before discharge, invasive mechanical ventilation ≥7 d, maternal antenatal corticosteroids use and bronchopulmonary dysplasia) were selected to establish the prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training dataset and the validation dataset were 0.870 (95% CI 0.820-0.920) and 0.879 (95% CI 0.815-0.942), suggesting good discrimination efficacy. The calibration curve indicated a good fit of the model ( P>0.05). The decision curve analysis showed positive net benefits at all thresholds. Conclusions:Currently, EPIs have a high incidence of longitudinal EUGR. The prediction model is helpful for early identification and intervention for EPIs with higher risks of longitudinal EUGR. It is necessary to expand the sample size and conduct prospective studies to optimize and validate the prediction model in the future.

Objective:To observe the therapeutic effect of intraocular lens (IOL) protected phacoemulsification (PHACO) in patients with hard nucleus cataract.Methods:A randomized controlled clinical study was conducted.A total of consecutive 120 patients (120 eyes) with hard nucleus cataract of Emery grade Ⅳ or Ⅴ were enrolled from January 2019 to May 2022.The patients were randomly divided into PHACO group receiving routine PHACO, IOL protected PHACO group receiving PHACO under IOL protection, and extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) group receiving ECCE, with 40 cases (40 eyes) in each group.Finally, 99 patients completed the follow-up, including 30 cases (30 eyes) in PHACO group, 35 cases (35 eyes) in IOL protected PHACO group, and 34 cases (34 eyes) in ECCE group.The total operation time, intraoperative PHACO time and cumulative energy release of each patient were recorded.The corneal endothelial cell density (ECD), coefficient of variation in endothelial cell area (CV), hexagonal endothelial cell ratio (6A), corneal astigmatism and the number of eyes with different grades of uncorrected visual acuity were measured and compared after 3-month follow-up.The intraoperative and postoperative complications were recorded.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of Yanbian University Hospital (NO.2023002).Patients were informed of study content and purpose and signed a consent form before treatment.Results:There was no significant difference in ultrasonic energy and time between PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group ( P=0.691, 0.982).The total operation time was (38.81±2.73) and (36.45±3.45) minutes in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group, significantly shorter than (69.60±4.35) minutes in ECCE group (both at P<0.001).There was no significant difference in age, sex, lens nucleus hardness and other baseline data among the three groups before operation (all at P>0.05).Three months after operation, the number of patients with higher uncorrected visual acuity in PHACO group and IOL protected PHACO group was larger than that in ECCE group ( P=0.006, 0.007).The ECD and 6A in IOL protected PHACO group were (2 155.57±177.88)/mm 2 and (41.31±5.18)%, respectively, which were significantly higher than (1 912.64±224.11)/mm 2 and (36.18±3.27)% in PHACO group, and the CV in IOL protected PHACO group was (50.34±5.90)%, which was lower than (55.67±3.30)% in PHACO group, showing statistically significant differences ( P=0.007, 0.003, 0.005).At 1 week and 3 months after the operation, the corneal astigmatism was significantly lower in IOL-protected PHACO group than in ECCE group, but higher than in PHACO group, and the difference were statistically significant (all at P<0.05). Conclusions:Compared with conventional PHACO, IOL-protected PHACO can effectively reduce the damage of corneal endothelium caused by ultrasonic energy, shorten the operation time and reduce postoperative inflammatory reaction compared with ECCE, and does not significantly increase postoperative corneal astigmatism.IOL-protected PHACO is an effective improved surgical method for patients with hard nucleus cataract.

Background::Genetic variants of dopaminergic transcription factor-encoding genes are suggested to be Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk factors; however, no comprehensive analyses of these genes in patients with PD have been undertaken. Therefore, we aimed to genetically analyze 16 dopaminergic transcription factor genes in Chinese patients with PD.Methods::Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed using a Chinese cohort comprising 1917 unrelated patients with familial or sporadic early-onset PD and 1652 controls. Additionally, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed using another Chinese cohort comprising 1962 unrelated patients with sporadic late-onset PD and 1279 controls.Results::We detected 308 rare and 208 rare protein-altering variants in the WES and WGS cohorts, respectively. Gene-based association analyses of rare variants suggested that MSX1 is enriched in sporadic late-onset PD. However, the significance did not pass the Bonferroni correction. Meanwhile, 72 and 1730 common variants were found in the WES and WGS cohorts, respectively. Unfortunately, single-variant logistic association analyses did not identify significant associations between common variants and PD. Conclusions::Variants of 16 typical dopaminergic transcription factors might not be major genetic risk factors for PD in Chinese patients. However, we highlight the complexity of PD and the need for extensive research elucidating its etiology.