1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Needs for rehabilitation in China: Estimates based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.
Tian TIAN ; Lin ZHU ; Qingzhen FU ; Shiheng TAN ; Yukun CAO ; Ding ZHANG ; Mingxue WANG ; Ting ZHENG ; Lijing GAO ; Daria VOLONTOVICH ; Yongchen WANG ; Jinming ZHANG ; Zhimei JIANG ; Hongbin QIU ; Fan WANG ; Yashuang ZHAO
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(1):49-59
BACKGROUND:
As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034.
METHODS:
The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC).
RESULTS:
Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Female
;
Male
;
Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Rehabilitation/trends*
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Bayes Theorem
3.Current status and visual analysis of the burn-related sepsis.
Like ZHANG ; Wei YI ; Lijing ZHU ; Weibo XIE ; Zhicheng GU ; Guosheng WU ; Zhaofan XIA
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(3):255-261
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the current status, evolution, hot topics, and future research trends in the field of burn-related sepsis research through a visual analysis of literature.
METHODS:
A bibliometric method was employed to retrieve articles related to burn-related sepsis from January 1, 1994, to May 16, 2024, in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and the Web of Science database. The CiteSpace 6.3.R1 software was used to analyze the retrieved literature. The number of publications, authors, countries, and institutions in both Chinese and English literature was statistically analyzed. Co-occurrence analysis, clustering analysis, and co-citation analysis of keywords were performed.
RESULTS:
A total of 1 090 articles from the CNKI database and 1 143 articles from the Web of Science database were retrieved. Over the past 20 years, the volume of Chinese publications has remained stable, although there has been a slight decline in the past two years. In contrast, the number of English publications, after a period of growth, showed a sharp decline over the past three years. In Chinese literature, 1 457 authors published articles on burn-related sepsis as first authors, with 14 core authors publishing four or more articles. In English literature, 98 authors published articles on burn-related sepsis as first authors. Research on burn-related sepsis was conducted by 76 countries, with the United States having the most collaborations and publications. Globally, 1 349 institutions published articles on burn-related sepsis, with the top institutions being the First Affiliated Hospital of the PLA General Hospital (8 articles) for Chinese literature and the University of Texas Medical Branch (57 articles) for English literature. In the co-occurrence analysis, 208 Chinese keywords and 211 English keywords were included. Excluding keywords related to search terms, the top five most frequent keywords in Chinese literature were burn, sepsis, infection, severe burn, and procalcitonin; the top five most frequent keywords in English literature were sepsis, septic shock, mortality, injury, and burn injury. Chinese keyword analysis identified six clusters, with the largest being sepsis, followed by procalcitonin, infection, and severe burn. English keyword analysis identified seven clusters, with the largest being expression, followed by epidemiology, inhalation injury, and acute kidney injury. The persistent clusters in Chinese literature were procalcitonin, with recent emerging nodes being severe burn, inflammatory response, platelets, and predictive value. In English literature, the persistent clusters were inhalation injury and nitric oxide, with recent emerging nodes being continuous renal replacement therapy, hemorrhagic shock, and early enteral nutrition. The longest-lasting emergent keyword in Chinese literature was delayed resuscitation (2003-2010), with the highest emergent strength being severe burn. In English literature, the longest-lasting emergent keywords, each lasting five years, were nitric oxide (2007-2012), management (2019-2024), and impact (2019-2024), with the highest emergent strength being thermal injury.
CONCLUSIONS
Research on burn-related sepsis has shifted from focusing on early studies on pathogenesis and mortality to focus on prevention, treatment, and early diagnosis. Future research is expected to focus on early diagnosis and risk factors of burn-related sepsis.
Burns/complications*
;
Sepsis/etiology*
;
Humans
;
Bibliometrics
;
China
4.Pathogenesis,Differentiation and Treatment of Pre-Metastatic Niche in Malignant Tumors Based on the Theory of "Toxin Accumulation Damaging Yin"
Shiliang SHAO ; Xiaomin NIU ; Yao ZHANG ; Lijing JIAO ; Ling XU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(23):2426-2432
According to the theory of "toxin accumulation damaging yin", the accumulation of pathological products and the disruption of homeostasis in the pre-metastatic niche (PMN) of malignant tumors correspond to "toxin accumulation" and "yin damage" respectively. During the dynamic evolution of PMN, the main pathogenesis in the initial stage is healthy qi deficiency and phlegm congestion, obstruction in the ying (营) and wei (卫) level, for which the therapeutic approach is fortifying spleen and warming yang, reinforcing healthy qi, consolidating the root, and assissting in resolving phlegm. In the progression stage, the predominant mechanism is mutual binding of phlegm and stasis, with collateral damage and pathological transformation. Treatment should focus on resolving phlegm and eliminating stasis, using insect-derived medicinals to attack accumulation and block pathological transmission. In the terminal stage, the main pathogenesis involves phlegm-stasis transforming into fire, with depletion of qi and yin, for which it is suggested to replenish qi and nourish yin, combine clearing and tonifying methods to control fire-toxin. After the PMN has formed, pathogenic toxin may flow along the collaterals, tending to lodge in corresponding viscera with functional imbalance and deviation between deficiency and excess, eventually giving rise to malignant tumors. Understanding the pathogenesis of the PMN in the malignant tumors based on the "toxin accumulation damaging yin" theory may provide a valuable perspective for developing traditional Chinese medicine strategies for the prevention and treatment of tumor metastasis.
5.Anesthesia management of children undergoing resection of pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma
Zenghua XU ; Jianmin ZHANG ; Nan ZOU ; Tiehua ZHENG ; Lianghong HUO ; Lijing LI ; Fang WANG
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2024;44(2):209-213
Objective:To retrospectively analyze the anesthetic management characteristics of children undergoing resection of pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (PPGL).Methods:The clinical data from patients undergoing resection of PPGL and confirmed histologically from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2023 were retrospectively collected. The baseline characteristics, intraoperative conditions and postoperative complications were recorded.Results:The clinical data from 47 pediatric patients were analyzed. The overall incidence of hemodynamic instability events was 68% (32 cases). Lowering preoperative blood pressure to normal levels and the maximum diameter of tumor≥6 cm was helpful in reducing the incidence of the intraoperative hemodynamic instability events ( P<0.05). Postoperative hypotension developed in 7 cases, acute left heart failure in 1 case, arrhythmia in 1 case, adrenocortical insufficiency in 4 cases, and pulmonary infection in 13 cases. Conclusions:Thorough preoperative preparation, evidence-based anesthetic management, and meticulous postoperative vital sign monitoring can increase the perioperative safety for children undergoing resection of PPGL, thereby reducing the incidence of complications.
6.Effect of cTBS magnetic stimulation over contralateral premotor areas on post-stroke spastic gait in severe hemiplegia patients
Lijing NIE ; Qian DENG ; Huifang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases 2024;26(9):1044-1048
Objective To determine the effects of continuous θ burst stimulation of contralateral premotor areas on post-stroke spasticity gait in patients with severe hemiplegia.Methods A pro-spective trial was conducted on 186 stroke patients with severe hemiplegia admitted to our depart-ment from January 2019 to January 2024.They were randomly into control group(93 cases,con-ventional rehabilitation training)and observation group(93 cases,continuous θ burst transcranial stimulation).In 4 weeks after treatment,gait parameters,Fugl-Meyer assessment of lower ex-tremity(FMA-LE)score,Berg balance scale(BSS)score,clinic spasticity index(CSI)score,lower limb sensation,spasticity improvement,and total effective rate were compared between the two groups.Results After treatment,both the 2 groups had significantly higher hip flexion,knee flex-ion,stride length,step frequency,step speed,FMA-LE score,BSS score,CSI score,and H wave latency,and lower two-point discrimination perception and H/M ratio when compared with the levels before treatment(P<0.01).What's more,all above indicators were obviously better in the observation group than the control group(P<0.01).The observation group had 1(1.1%),11(11.8%),48(51.6%),31(33.3%)and 2 cases(2.2%),respectively,of spasticity improvement grades 1,1+,2,3,and 4,and the control group had 0,7(7.5%),29(31.2%),44(47.3%),and 13 cases(14.0%),respectively,with statistical differences between the two group(P<0.01).The total effective rate was notably higher in the observation group than the control group(96.8%vs 77.4%,x2=15.500,P<0.01).Conclusion For severe hemiplegia patients,continuous θ burst stimulation can improve muscle spasm,restore gait,and better improve lower limb sensory and motor function.
7.Feasibility of wavelet index in monitoring depth of sedation with propofol in pediatric patients
Tingting ZI ; Jianmin ZHANG ; Xiaoxia PENG ; Lijing LI ; Jie YU ; Muyang TIAN ; Xiaohuan CUI ; Fang WANG
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2024;44(8):1000-1005
Objective:To assess the feasibility of wavelet index (WLI) in monitoring the depth of sedation with propofol in pediatric patients.Methods:This was a prospective observational trial. One hundred and sixty-five pediatric patients, aged >1-12 yr, of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification Ⅰ or Ⅱ, undergoing elective surgery requiring general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation or laryngeal mask airway from July to December 2016 in our hospital, were divided into 11 age groups ( n=15 each): >1-2 yr group, >2-3 yr group, >3-4 yr group, >4-5 yr group, >5-6 yr group, >6-7 yr group, >7-8 yr group, >8-9 yr group, >9-10 yr group, >10-11 yr group, and >11-12 yr group. General anesthesia was induced by injection of propofol 3 mg/kg for more than 30 s. WLI and BIS values were recorded immediately before administration and at 30, 40, 50, 60, 90, 120, 180 and 240 s after the end of administration. If there were differences among age groups, age groups with no statistically significant differences were combined and re-grouped. Pearson linear correlation analysis and Bland-Altman consistency analysis were performed. Results:A total of 149 pediatric patients were actually included. There were no significant differences in BIS values between 4 groups aged > 1-5 yr and between 7 groups aged > 5-12 yr ( P>0.05). Regrouping was performed based on the aforementioned results, 4 groups of children aged > 1-5 yr were divided into > 1-5 yr group ( n=60), and 7 groups of children aged > 5-12 yr were divided into > 5-12 yr group ( n=89). WLI values and BIS values were significantly decreased at each time point after administration compared with immediately before administration in group aged > 1-5 yr and in group aged >5-12 yr ( P<0.05). The BIS values were the lowest at 60 s after the end of the administration, and the WLI values were the lowest at 120 and 180 s after the end of the administration in two groups ( P<0.05). There were no statistically significant differences between WLI values and BIS values at 90 s and 240 s after the end of the administration ( P>0.05), and there was statistically significant difference at the other time points in group aged > 1-5 yr ( P<0.05). There was no significant difference between WLI values and BIS values at 180 s and 240 s after the end of the administration ( P>0.05), but there were significant differences at the other time points in group aged > 5-12 yr ( P<0.05). The Pearson correlation coefficients between WLI values and BIS values were 0.61 and 0.56 in group aged > 1-5 yr and group aged > 5-12 yr, respectively ( P<0.001). Bland-Altman agreement analysis: In group aged > 1-5 yr and group aged > 5-12 yr, the 95% agreement limits were -0.484-0.621 and -0.551-1.015, respectively, and there were 4.6% (23/504) and 5.1% (40/777) of the points outside the 95% agreement limits, respectively, and both limits exceeded the clinically acceptable range. Conclusions:WLI is feasible for monitoring the depth of sedation with propofol in pediatric patients aged > 1-12 yr, but the accuracy is lower than BIS.
8.Effect of Zishen-Yutai pills on refrozen-thawed embryo transfer in patients with diminished ovarian reserve
Jinghua ZHANG ; Lijing BAI ; Chunmei YU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(19):3037-3041
BACKGROUND:Currently,hormone replacement therapy is the main treatment in Western medicine for patients with decreased ovarian function,but these patients are not sensitive to exogenous hormones,leading to unsatisfactory therapeutic effect.Zishen-Yutai pills can nourish the blood and calm the fetus,tonify the kidney and spleen,invigorate qi and strengthen the body.Studies have confirmed that Zishen-Yutai pill is effective in reducing follicle-stimulating hormone index and improving traditional Chinese medicine symptoms in patients with diminished ovarian reserve.However,few studies have been conducted to improve the implantation rate of patients by improving endometrial receptivity. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the effect of Zishen-Yutai pills on the clinical outcome of patients with diminished ovarian reserve undergoing frozen-thawed embryo transfer again. METHODS:A total of 300 patients with diminished ovarian reserve who underwent frozen-thawed embryo transfer to assist pregnancy after the first failure in the Center of Reproductive Medicine,Changzhou Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the study subjects.Subjects were randomly treated with a placebo or Zishen-Yutai pills in a ratio of 1:2,with 100 cases in the treatment group and 200 cases in the control group.However,13 patients fell off due to lack of contact,refusal to take medicine or other reasons.Finally,90 cases in the treatment group and 197 cases in the control group were included in the study.Oral medication was administered 7 days before frozen-thawed embryo transfer transplantation at a dose of 5 g/time,3 times/day.To investigate whether taking Zishen-Yutai pills could improve the clinical outcome of patients with diminished ovarian reserve after frozen-thawed embryo transfer again,the primary outcome measures included clinical pregnancy rate,implantation rate,abortion rate,live birth rate,offspring birth weight and birth defects. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Compared with the control group,the clinical pregnancy rate(P<0.05)and implantation rate(P=0.009)were significantly increased after the oral administration of Zishen-Yutai pills.Correlation analysis showed that taking the Zishen-Yutai pill was positively correlated with the number of implanted embryos(r=0.200,P=0.001)and clinical pregnancy(r=0.235,P=0.000).There was no correlation between taking Zishen-Yutai pills and indexes of endometrial thickness and blood flow.It is indicated that Zishen-Yutai pills can improve the clinical pregnancy rate and implantation rate of frozen-thawed embryo transfer recurrence in patients with diminished ovarian reserve.
9.Correlation between stress and Internet addiction among middle school students in Shanghai
YUAN Linlin, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, ZHAI Yani, YIN Xiaoya, LI Shuman, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(12):1757-1760
Objective:
To understand the relationship between stress and Internet addiction among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide a scientific basis for promoting students mental health and preventing Internet addiction.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified random cluster sampling method was used to select 6 123 middle and high school students in Shanghai for health risk behavior monitoring. Daily Stressors Evaluation Scale for Urban Secondary School Students was used to evaluate students' stress, and the Internet Addiction Test compiled by Young was used to evaluate students Internet addiction. The correlation between student stress and Internet addiction was analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis H test , Chi square test and multiple Logistic regression.
Results:
Total stress score of middle school students in Shanghai was 24 (12, 39), academic stress score was 8 (5, 13), physical and psychological stress score was 6 (2, 10), interpersonal stress score was 5 (1, 9), and family stress score was 4 (1, 8). The detection rate of Internet addiction was 4.7%. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of Internet addiction among middle school students with high levels of stress was 8.05 times(95% CI =4.59-14.12) that of students with low levels of stress( P <0.05). The risk of Internet addiction among middle school students with high levels of academic stress, physical and psychological stress, interpersonal stress and family stress was 5.98(95% CI =3.69-9.70), 6.92(95% CI =4.03-11.88), 4.85(95% CI =3.11-7.55), and 4.18(95% CI =2.73-6.40) times that of students with low levels of stress, respectively( P <0.05).
Conclusion
The academic stress, physical and psychological stress, interpersonal stress, and family stress among middle school students can all lead to an increased risk of Internet addiction.
10.Analysis of bullying prevalence and associated factors among middle school students in Shanghai
LI Shuman, ZHOU Xinyi, YAN Qiong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHAI Yani, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(11):1555-1559
Objective:
To explore the current status and associated factors of bullying behavior among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide a reference basis for carrying out bullying intervention work.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster sampling method was used to select 19 000 middle school students from 63 schools in 16 districts of Shanghai, and the Shanghai Youth Health Risk Behavior Survey Questionnaire was used to conduct an anonymous questionnaire survey of enrolled students. Chi square test and binary Logistic regression analysis were employed to investigate the associated factors of bullying among middle school students.
Results:
The prevalence of bullying behaviors in Shanghai was 15.5%, with males and junior high school students exhibiting the higher reporting rate(19.5%,17.2%). And malicious teasing or name calling had the highest reported rate at 9.4%. The results of binary Logistic regression analysis showed that fighting ( OR =5.02), attempting to smoke ( OR =3.22), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.50) and getting drunk( OR =1.72) were positively associated with bullying behavior among middle school students. Fighting ( OR =3.83-8.97), attempting to smoke ( OR =2.92-5.52), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.40-4.34), and getting drunk ( OR =1.66-2.34) were positively correlated with 6 forms of bullying (malicious teasing or name calling, intentionally damaging someone else s belongings, deliberately excluding someone from activities or isolating someone, threatening or intimidating others, hitting, kicking, or pushing someone, and verbally harassing or attacking someone online) ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Bullying behavior of middle school students in Shanghai primarily presents as verbal harassment. In the future, greater attention should be directed towards bullies, and it should recognize potential hazards promptly and implement precise intervention measures.


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