Objective of the study is to explore how to apply ARIMA model in prediction of outpatients headcount,describe the modeling process,build the prediction model,and verify its applicability to serve decision making for hospital management.Methods Data originates from the outpatient statements of the HIS integrated statistics and management decision making support system.The data collection ranges from the monthly outpatients headcount from 1999 to 2005,in which the monthly data from 1999 to 2004 were used to build the time sequence model,and those of 2005 to verify the model so built.The statistic software was programmed with SPSS13.0.Results The ARIMA(1,0.1)(0,1,1)12 model was built by megns of model identification,parameter estimate.inspection/diagnosis,and model appraisal.This model features high fitting precision,as the relative error or outpatients headcount for the year is 6.85%,and that for the months ranges from-3.15%to-9.80%,with the actual values falling within the 95%upper and lower thresholds of the prediction results.Conclusion This study proves that ARIMA model fits the purpose of outpatients headcount prediction.In the meantime,prediction of such headcount should also take into account such factors as the data volume,hospital environment and patient satisfaction.

To explore the observation and nursing of complications in operative patients with massive and rapid transfusion,32 cases were studied,the author summarized that the observation and nursing experience in prevention and treatment of some complications,such as overloading circulation、bleeding tendency、hypokalemia and hypothermia.

Objective Drug resistance is a major problem for the successful chemotherapeutic treatment and prognosis of cervi -cal cancer .The article investigated the role of Twist on cisplatin resistance of Hela cervical cancer cells in hypoxia microenvironment and its possible mechanism to provide an experimental basis to improve the therapeutic efficacy for cervical cancer . Methods Hela Cells were divided into two groups, normal oxygen group A (no CoCl2) and hypoxia group A (addition of 150μmol/L CoCl2 medium).6 hours later, different degrees(10-3, 10-4, 10-5, 10-6, 10-7 mol/L) of cisplatin (10 -3 , 10 -4 , 10 -5 , 10 -6 , 10 -7 mol/L) were added into two groups .24 hours later , MTT were added to measure IC 50 and growth inhibition ratio .CoCl2 were used to mimic hypoxia environ-ment.The working concentration and the treatment duration of Cispla-tin was optimized by MTT method.The expressions of Twist and MDR1 in normal oxygen group , cisplatin group , hypoxic group B and hypoxic cisplatin group B were determined by immunofluores-cence and western blot . Results The IC50 values were 10 -5.3 mol/L and 10 -4.5 mol/L of cisplatin respectively in normal oxygen group and hypoxia group, and there was significantly difference between them (P<0.05).The optimized working concentration and work time of cisplatin was 10 -5 mol/L and 24 h.Compare to the normal oxygen group (13.08 ±2.39, 29.57 ±12.80), the expres-sions of Twist (20.81 ±2.07, 24.25 ±4.51, 33.14 ±4.24) and MDR1 (35.26 ±8.41, 60.13 ±22.32, 76.00 ±9.96) was signifi-cantly higher than those in other three groups and which were the highest in hypoxic cisplatin group (P<0.05).There were significant positive correlations among them in hypoxic group and hypoxic cisplatin group (r =0.686,P <0.05;r =0.546,P <0.05). Conclusion The hypoxia microenvironment may be related to the cisplatin resistance of Hela cervical cancer cells .The possible mechanism is hypoxia activates Twist and upregulates MDR 1 expression , resulting in cisplatin resistance of Hela cells .

Objective The purpose of this study was to research the expression of Twist in cervical cancer tissues and the relationship between its expression and clinicopathologic characteristic, and to investigate the role of twist in cervical cancer invasion, metastasis and progress. Methods Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of the Twist in 78 cases of middle and advanced stages cervical cancer tissue microarray chip. The relationship between its expression and clinicopathological characteristic was analyzed. Results (1) The positive expression of twist in cervical cancer was 56/78 (71.8%);(2) The expression of Twist in cervical cancer was significantly related to tumor histology type, FIGO stage, lymph node metastasis and differentiation degree. With the increase of FIGO stage, the emergence of lymph node metastasis and the decrease of differentiation degree, the expression of Twist increased gradually ( <0.05) . Conclusion The expression of Twist may be closely related to the invasion, metastasis and progress of cervial cancer.

The Pricing and Payment Regulation on Chinese Diagnosis Related Groups (C-DRG) was designed by National Health Development Research Center,directly under the leadership of Department of Finance,NHFPC (formerly Dept.of Planning and Finance,Ministry of Health),which organized a large study group consisted of nearly 1 000 experts since 2010.It introduced the general design of C-DRG and the principles and main points of applying C-DRG system,which could be referenced by all countries in carrying out the pricing and payment reform system.

Objective To investigate the neuroprotective effects of picrodideⅡ on cerebral ischemic reperfusion injury in rats. Methods Intraluminal thread methods were applied to establish the left middle cerebral artery occlusion reperfusion models (MCAO/R) in rats. PicrodideⅡ (10mg/kg) and salvianic acid A sodium (10mg/kg) were injected from tail vein for treatment. The neurological behavioral function was evaluated with Bederson's test. The cerebral infarction volume was observed with tetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. The structure of cells was observed with histopathology. The apoptosis positive cells were counted by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase midiated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL). Results The neurological behavioral malfunction appeared in all rats with MCAO/R. The infarction focus showed in the ischemic hemisphere following cerebral ischemia reperfusion injury. In the picrodideⅡ and salvianic acid A sodium treatment groups, the number of apoptosis positive cells decreased and the cerebral infarction volume reduced, while the neurological behavioral function was significantly improved than those in the model control group (P<0.05). The cerebral infarction volume in the picrodideⅡ group was smaller than that in the salvianic acid A sodium group (P<0.05).Conclusion PicrodideⅡ might reduce cerebral infarction volume and improve the neurological behavioral function through inhibiting the neuronal apoptosis induced by ischemia reperfusion injury.

Objective To observe the influence of neuregulin-1?(NRG-1?) on neuronal apoptosis and the expressions of signal transducer and activator of transcription(STAT3) and glial fiberillary acidic protein(GFAP) following cerebral ischemia/reperfusion in rats.Methods The animal models of middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion(MCAO/R) was established by the intralumianl filament method from left external-internal carotid artery in adult healthy male Wistar rats.The rat models were treated by injecting 1.5% NRG-1? 5?l from internal carotid artery.The neuronal apoptosis was detected by DendEnd fluorometric TUNEL assay,and the expressions of STAT3 and GFAP were determined by immunohistochemical and immumofluorescent assays.Results The cerebral ischemia/reperfusion injury could induce neuronal apoptosis and the expressions of STAT3 and GFAP in brain tissue.In control group,the number of neuronal apoptosis increased gradually and the STAT3 and GFAP were expressed highly along ischemia times in the cortex,striatum and hippocampus areas.After treatment with NRG-1?,the number of neuronal apoptosis reduced and the expression level of STAT3 and GFAP increased when compared to those in the control group at different ischemia times and corresponding areas(P

Objective To investigate the expression of poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP-1 ), cytokeratins (CK) 7/20, and p53 in patients with Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocareinoma,and to evaluate their significance. Methods Expression of PARP-1, CK7/20 and p53 were determined by immunohistochemistry in 108 patients (including 40 Barrett's esophagus, 28 esophageal adenocarcinoma and 40 cardiac mucosa). Results The expression of PARP-1 was found in Barrett's esophagus, esophageal ade-nocarcinoma and cardiac epithelium with a significantly higher level in esophageal adenocarcinoma than the other two groups (P <0. 01 ). CK7/20 was expressed in much of intestinal metaplasia, part of cardiac epi-thelium and adenocarcinoma cells. The positive expression of p53 was observed in all three groups, and it was significantly higher in adenocarcinoma group than in other two groups (P < 0. 05 ). PARP-1 expression is highly correlated with that of p53 in Barrett's esophagus ( r= 0.49, P < 0.01 ). Conclusion CK7/20 is a sensitive but less specific indicator for intestinal metaplasia. Both PARP-1 and p53 are involved in the patho-genesis of esophageal adenocarcinoma and might help to determine the risk of Barrett's esophagus developing into esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Objective To observe the effect of serum containing Dahuang Zhechong Pills on vascular endothelial growth factor ( VEGF) expression in K562 cells of chronic myelogenous leukemia ( CML) and to develop new antiangiogenic drugs for CML treatment. Methods Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay ( ELISA) was used for the detection of serum VEGF content in 38 CML patients, 11 acute myelogenous leukemia patients and 9 healthy volunteers. SD rats were used for the preparation of serum containing Dahuang Zhechong Pills, and then ELISA was applied for the detection of VEGF content in K562 cells pretreated with serum containing Dahuang Zhechong Pills. Results Compared with the healthy volunteers, myelogenous leukemia patients at chronic phase and acute phase had high serum VEGF content ( P<0.05 or P<0.01) . Compared with blank serum control group, the secretion of VEGF in K562 cells pretreated with serum containing Dahuang Zhechong Pills was decreased obviously ( P<0.01) , and VEGF expression decreased with the increase of drug concentration. Conclusion VEGF content is increased in myelogenous leukemia patients at chronic phase and acute phase, which may be related to the pathogenesis, progress and prognosis of chronic myelogenous leukemia. Serum containing Dahuang Zhechong Pills can inhibit the expression of VEGF in chronic myelogenous leukemia K562 cells and decrease VEGF protein expression in concentration-dependent manner.

Objective To study the influence of fluorine on signaling pathway of osteoprotegerin(OPG)/ receptor activator of NF-κB ligand(RANKL) in cultured rat osteoblasts.Methods Osteoblasts were isolated from skull of neonatal rats(＜ 24 hours) by enzyme digestion,and fluorine of different concentrations [0 (control),1 × 10-3,1 × 10-4,1 × 10-5,1 × l0-6 and 1 × 10-7 mol/L] were added into the culture medium of second generation of osteoblasts.The expressions of OPG and RANKL mRNA were determined using real-time PCR 24 and 48 hours after culturing.The expressions of OPG and RANKL protein were measured by Western blotting.Results ① After exposed to fluorine for 24 hours,the differences of RANKL and OPG mRNA expression had statistical significance between groups(F =30.95,22.62,all P ＜ 0.01),the expression of RANKL mRNA(5.99 ± 0.39) in the 1 × 10-5 mol/L group and the expressions of OPG mRNA(3.52 ± 0.09,4.81 ± 0.15,3.68 ± 0.04) in the 1 × 10-4,1 × 10-5 and 1 × 10-6 mol/L groups were higher than those of the control group(3.20 ± 0.19,3.09 ± 0.58,all P ＜ 0.05),but in the 1 × 10-3 mol/L group,RANKL mRNA(2.29 ± 0.18) was lower than that of the control group(P ＜ 0.05).After exposed to fluorine for 48 hours,the differences of RANKL and OPG mRNA expression had statistical significance between groups(F =26.62,5.72,all P ＜ 0.01),the expressions of RANKL and OPG mRNA(6.67 ± 0.49 and 5.05 ± 0.51) in the 1 × 10-5 mol/L group were higher than those of the control group(4.29 ± 0.07 and 4.34 ± 0.12,all P ＜ 0.05),and in the 1 × 10-3 mol/L group the expression of OPG mRNA(3.63 ± 0.49) was lower than that of the control group(P ＜ 0.05).② The expression of RANKL protein was not statistically significant between 24 hours and 48 hours groups (F =0.07,0.49,all P ＞ 0.05) ; the differences of OPG protein expression had statistical significance between groups(F =3.26,P ＜ 0.05),the expression of OPG protein in the 1 × 10-5 mol/L group(1.45 ± 0.10) was higher than that of the control group(1.05 ± 0.06,P ＜ 0.05) at the 24 hours.After 48 hours,the expression of OPG protein was not statistically significant(F =0.44,P ＞ 0.05).Conclusions At lower fluorine concentrations,bone formation is the main activity.But when fluorine concentration increased and time prolonged,the osteoclast differentiation and maturation are promoted,and the bone resorption is the main thing.