1.Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach
Karthick KANAGARATHINAM ; Kavaskar SEKAR
Epidemiology and Health 2020;42():e2020028-
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.
2.Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach
Karthick KANAGARATHINAM ; Kavaskar SEKAR
Epidemiology and Health 2020;42():e2020028-
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.
3.THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLEXIBLE DENTURE MATERIALS AND CONCEPT: A NARRATIVE REVIEW
Ghee Seong Lim ; Muaiyed Mahmoud Ali Buzayan ; Aeman Elkezza ; Karthick Sekar
Journal of University of Malaya Medical Centre 2021;24(1):23-29
Introduction:
Flexible denture is an alternative treatment modality for removable partial denture (RPD) that aid the retention by ensuring seal around the entire border of the denture. It is also referred as hypoallergenic denture especially for those who are allergic towards conventional acrylic denture which is the poly-methylmethacrylate monomer (PMMA) and metal (cobalt chromium). The flexible material exhibits lower flexural modulus than conventional type of baseplate material denture that makes it nearly unbreakable. Nowadays, there are a handful of different flexible materials in the dental market for the general dental practitioners to choose but somehow the studies on the properties of these different types of flexible materials are sparse.
Objectives:
The present study is to study the development of the flexible materials, the different type of flexible materials and their physical properties.
Methods:
From the limited article journals available, the authors have summarized the history, development and constituents of different type of flexible materials used in fabricating denture. Besides that, the authors also discussed about the indications, contraindications, advantages and disadvantages of the materials in denture constructions based on all the published researches available on this topic using published materials available in the dental library, University of Malaya and the databases (Science Direct, PubMed).
Conclusion
Each flexible material has its pros and cons. Therefore, careful selection of material and understanding of the flexible dentures’ indications and contraindications are utmost importance to make sure the best treatment outcome. Hence, patients’ best interest and quality of life can be upheld.
Contraindications