Objectives: In the current early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Bali needs to prepare to face the escalation of cases, with a particular focus on the readiness of healthcare services. We simulated the future trajectory of the epidemic under current conditions, projected the impact of policy interventions, and analyzed the implications for healthcare capacity. Methods: Our study was based on the first month of publicly accessible data on new confirmed daily cases. A susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 was employed to compare the current dynamics of the disease with those predicted under various scenarios. Results: The fitted model for the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Bali indicated an effective reproduction number of 1.4. Interventions have decreased the possible maximum number of cases from 71 125 on day 86 to 22 340 on day 119, and have prolonged the doubling time from about 9 days to 21 days. This corresponds to an approximately 30% reduction in transmissions from cases of mild infections. There will be 2780 available hospital beds, and at the peak (on day 132), the number of severe cases is estimated to be roughly 6105. Of these cases, 1831 will need intensive care unit (ICU) beds, whereas the number of currently available ICU beds is roughly 446. Conclusions The healthcare system in Bali is in danger of collapse; thus, serious efforts are needed to improve COVID-19 interventions and to prepare the healthcare system in Bali to the greatest extent possible.

Objectives: This study examined the association between irrational beliefs and psychological distress among female office workers in Bali, and formulate general equation to predict psychological distress from the irrational belief scores. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 111 female office workers in Bali. The irrational beliefs were measured by the Smith Irrational Belief Inventory (SIBI) questionnaire and the psychological distress was assessed by a questionnaire quoted from the Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (BJSQ). Multivariable linear regression was performed to evaluate the role of irrational beliefs on psychological distress scores. Results: There was a moderate, positive correlation between irrational beliefs and psychological distress, which was statistically significant (r = 0.451, n = 111, p = 0.000). The R squared was 0.205, indicating that 20.5% of psychological distress variance can be explained by irrational beliefs. The F-ratio in the ANOVA test shows that the independent variables statistically significantly predict the dependent variable, F(3,107) = 9.187, p < 0.0005. The general form of the equation to predict psychological distress from irrational belief scores is: Predicted psychological distress (Y) = 17.909 + (0.392 x Irrational belief scores). Conclusion Irrational beliefs are significantly associated with psychological distress among female office workers in Gianyar, Bali. This finding suggests the need for strategies anticipating better health and productivity among female workers.
Psychological Distress ; Female