The management of emerging infectious diseases has always been given a high priority in public health. Identification of the epidemiological characteristics and transmission patterns of emerging infectious diseases is of great significance to contain the disease transmission and reduce the damages to public health and socioeconomic developments. Currently, infectious disease dynamics models are mainly established based on infectious disease surveillance data to predict the epidemiological patterns and trends of emerging infectious diseases; however, many model-based predictions fail to achieve the expected results due to the presence of multiple uncertain factors during the integrated management of infectious diseases. This review describes the basic principles and variables of common infectious disease dynamics models, including the susceptible-infected-recovered ( SIR ) model, susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible ( SIRS ) model, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ( SEIR ) model and improved SEIR model, compares the advantages and disadvantages of these models, and summarizes the advances of the infectious disease dynamics models in the prediction of trends in incidence of emerging infectious diseases, so as to provide insights into the effective application of infectious disease dynamics models in the management of infectious diseases.

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Blinatumomab on the treatment of refractory or relapsed precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R BCP-ALL) in children.Methods:Clinical data of children with R/R BCP-ALL treated with Blinatumomab in the Department of Hematology, Children′s Hospital of Soochow University, from August 2021 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Children were divided into<45 kg group and ≥45 kg group according to their weight at admission.They were treated with different dosages of Blinatumomab, and bone marrow remission was assessed at about 15 days.Clinical indicators and adverse events during the treatment period were recorded.The rank sum test of two independent samples were used to compare the differences between groups.The Fisher′ s test was used for comparing categorical variables. Results:Among the 16 children with R/R BCP-ALL, 12 cases (75%) achieved complete response (CR) and minimal residual lesion (MRD) turned negative at about 14 days.Among them, 5 out of 9 children with bone marrow primitive naive cell ratio≥0.5 achieved CR, and 7/7 children with bone marrow primitive naive cell ratio<0.5 achieved CR.The peak value of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in children with CR was significantly higher than those without CR ( Z=2.50, P=0.012). Twelve cases achieved CR on bone marrow assessment around day 15, and 3 cases who did not achieve CR remained in remission on day 28, with an efficacy prediction accuracy of 93.8%(15/16). Adverse events included fever, neutropenia, hypokalemia, abnormal liver function, hypocalcemia, edema, rash, hypertension, myocardial damage, abdominal pain, hypotension, and cytokine release syndrome, which were all grade 1.Neurotoxicity and death were not reported. Conclusions:The remission rate of R/R BCP-ALL in children treated with Blinatumomab was high, especially in patients with a low tumor load.The toxicity and adverse events of Blinatumomab treatment are minor and controllable.Day 15 is the optimal time point to evaluate the efficacy of Blinatumomab on children with R/R BCP-ALL, and a higher IL-6 peak can be served as a predictor of its efficacy.

Objective: To evaluate clinical characteristics and prognosis of primary myelofibrosis (PMF) patients with thrombocytopenia in varied degrees. Methods: Clinical features and survival data of 1 305 Chinese patients with PMF were retrospectively analyzed. The prognostic value of thrombocytopenia in patients with PMF was evaluated. Results: 320 subjects (47%) presented severe thrombocytopenia (PLT<50×10⁹/L), 198 ones (15.2%) mild thrombocytopenia [PLT (50-99)×10⁹/L] and 787 ones (60.3%) without thrombocytopenia (PLT ≥ 100×10⁹/L). The more severe the thrombocytopenia, the higher the proportions of HGB<100 g/L, WBC<4×10⁹/L, circulating blasts ≥ 3%, abnormal karyotype and unfavourable cytogenetics (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.004, P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively) were observed in this cohort of patients. The more severe the thrombocytopenia, the lower the proportion of JAK2V617F positive (P<0.001) was also noticed. Platelet count was positively correlated with splenomegaly, HGB and WBC (P<0.001, correlation coefficients were 0.131, 0.445 and 0.156, respectively). Platelet count was negative correlated with constitutional symptoms and circulating blasts (P=0.009, P=0.045, respectively; correlation coefficients were -0.096 and -0.056, respectively). The median survival of patients with severe thrombocytopenia, mild thrombocytopenia and without thrombocytopenia were 32, 67 and 89 months, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis identified thrombocytopenia in varied degrees (HR=1.693, 95%CI 1.320-2.173, P<0.001) and Dynamic Internation Prognostic Scoring System(DIPSS) prognostic model (HR=2.051, 95%CI 1.511-2.784, P<0.001) as independent risk factors for survival. Conclusion PMF patients with severe thrombocytopenia frequently displayed anemia, leucopenia, circulating blasts and short survival, so active treatment measures should be taken especially in these patients.

Objective: To explore the clinical implications and prognostic value of TP53 gene mutation and deletion in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) . Methods: 112-gene targeted sequencing and interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to detect TP53 mutation and deletion in 584 patients with newly diagnosed primary MDS who were admitted from October 2009 to December 2017. The association of TP53 mutation and deletion with several clinical features and their prognostic significance were analyzed. Results: Alterations in TP53 were found in 42 (7.2%) cases. Of these, 31 (5.3%) cases showed TP53 mutation only, 8 (1.4%) cases in TP53 deletion only, 3 (0.5%) cases harboring both mutation and deletion. A total of 37 mutations were detected in 34 patients, most of them (94.6%) were located in the DNA binding domain (exon5-8) , the remaining 2 were located in exon 10 and splice site respectively. Patients with TP53 alterations harbored significantly more mutations than whom without alterations (z=-2.418, P=0.016) . The median age of patients with TP53 alterations was higher than their counterparts[60 (21-78) years old vs 52 (14-83) years old, z=-2.188, P=0.029]. TP53 alterations correlated with complex karyotype and International prognostic scoring system intermediate-2/high significantly (P<0.001) . Median overall survival of patients with TP53 alterations was shorter than the others[13 (95%CI 7.57-18.43) months vs not reached, χ²=12.342, P<0.001], while the significance was lost during complex karyotype adjusted analysis in multivariable model. Conclusion TP53 mutation was more common than deletion in MDS patients. The majority of mutations were located in the DNA binding domain. TP53 alterations were strongly associated with complex karyotype and always coexisted with other gene mutations. TP53 alteration was no longer an independent prognostic factor when complex karyotype were occurred in MDS.

Objective:To evaluate the oncologic outcomes of different laparoscopic radical hysterectomy.Methods:From January 2011 to December 2014, the laparoscopic operation cases of cervical cancer at stage Ⅰb1, Ⅰb2, Ⅱa1 and Ⅱa2, including the histologic subtypes of squamous-cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma and adenosquamous carcinoma, were collected in five clinical centers. The data were divided into two groups according to the surgical procedures, that is, modified laparoscopic-vaginal radical hysterectomy (mLVRH) and total laparoscopic radical hysterectomy (TLRH). The overall survival rate (OS), disease-free survival rate (DFS) at 5 years were retrospectively analyzed in this study.Results:There were 674 cases in total, including 377 cases of mLVRH, 297 cases of TLRH. (1) The OS at 5 years: the mLVRH was 96.1% and the TLRH was 92.0%, and the mLVRH was higher than that of TLRH （ P=0.010）. Stratify analysis， including stage of disease （Ⅰb1 and Ⅱa1）， histologic subtypes （squamous-cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma）， lymph node metastasis， revealed that, ① Stage of disease: in stage Ⅰb1, the OS at five years of mLVRH was higher than that in TLRH group （98.6% vs 93.6%, P=0.012）. In stage Ⅱa1, there was significant difference between the two groups, the OS at five years of mLVRH and TLRH were 93.6% and 77.6% （ P=0.007）. ② Histologic subtypes: for the OS at five years of squamous-cell carcinoma, mLVRH and TLRH were 96.1% and 92.3%, and there was significant difference （ P=0.046）； for adenocarcinoma, the OS at five years were 91.0% and 88.6%， and there was no difference between two groups （ P=0.230）. ③ Lymph node metastasis： the mLVRH and TLRH with lymph node metastasis, the OS at five years were 98.6% and 96.4%; the mLVRH and TLRH without lymph node metastasis, the OS at five years were 89.3% and 80.8%. There were no significant differences between the two groups,respectively ( P=0.156， P=0.093）. (2) The DFS at 5 years: there was no significant difference between mLVRH and TLRH (94.1% vs 90.9%, P=0.220). Stratify analysis for stage of disease, the mLVRH group was higher than that in the TLRH group in stage Ⅰb1 (97.0% vs 92.8%, P=0.039). However, for stage Ⅱa1, there was no significant difference between mLVRH and TLRH group （88.2% vs 75.8%, P=0.074）. Conclusions:The results of this retrospective study indicated that different laparoscopy surgical procedures had diverse oncologic outcomes. The OS at 5 years of the mLVRH is superior to the TLRH. The DFS at 5 years in Ⅰb1 stage, the mLVRH is higher than the TLRH. Therefore, the modified laparoscopy is still an alternative surgery for early cervical cancer patients when following the principle of no-tumor-exposure.

Objective: To explore the prognostic effects of mean corpuscular volume (MCV) in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) . Methods: 321 newly diagnosed, untransfused primary MDS patients who administered from December 2009 to December 2017 were enrolled. The association of MCV with prognosis and several clinical features and genetic mutations were analyzed. Results: Patients were divided into MCV≤100 fl (n=148) and MCV>100 fl (n=173) cohorts. Median overall survival of patients with MCV≤100 fl was shorter than their counterparts (27 months vs 72 months, P<0.001) . In subgroup analysis, MCV≤100 fl patients had worse survivals in bone marrow blast <5% cohort (34 months vs not reached, P=0.002) , but not so in ≥5 % cohort (17 months vs 20 months, P=0.078) . MCV≤100 fl was still an independent adverse variable (HR=1.890, 95%CI 1.007-3.548, P=0.048) after adjusting for clinical and laboratory variables and mutation topography in bone marrow blasts<5% cohort. In bone marrow blasts<5% cohort, patients with MCV≤100 fl had higher hemoglobin levels [90 (42-153) g/L vs 78.5 (28-146) g/L, P=0.015].The proportions of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) high/very high risks and poor/very poor IPSS-R karyotypes were higher in MCV≤100 fl cohort (28.8% vs 10.8%, P=0.003; 24.7% vs 12.9%, P=0.049) . MCV≤100 fl cohort had more genetic mutations than those with MCV>100 fl though without significance (0.988 vs 0.769, P=0.064) . Mutated SF3B1 was less frequently in MCV≤100 fl cohort (4.7% vs 15.4%, P=0.018) . Conclusion MCV≤100 fl was an independent adverse variable after adjusting for clinical and laboratory variables and mutation topography in MDS patients with bone marrow blasts<5%.