The management of emerging infectious diseases has always been given a high priority in public health. Identification of the epidemiological characteristics and transmission patterns of emerging infectious diseases is of great significance to contain the disease transmission and reduce the damages to public health and socioeconomic developments. Currently, infectious disease dynamics models are mainly established based on infectious disease surveillance data to predict the epidemiological patterns and trends of emerging infectious diseases; however, many model-based predictions fail to achieve the expected results due to the presence of multiple uncertain factors during the integrated management of infectious diseases. This review describes the basic principles and variables of common infectious disease dynamics models, including the susceptible-infected-recovered ( SIR ) model, susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible ( SIRS ) model, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ( SEIR ) model and improved SEIR model, compares the advantages and disadvantages of these models, and summarizes the advances of the infectious disease dynamics models in the prediction of trends in incidence of emerging infectious diseases, so as to provide insights into the effective application of infectious disease dynamics models in the management of infectious diseases.

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of Blinatumomab on the treatment of refractory or relapsed precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R BCP-ALL) in children.Methods:Clinical data of children with R/R BCP-ALL treated with Blinatumomab in the Department of Hematology, Children′s Hospital of Soochow University, from August 2021 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Children were divided into<45 kg group and ≥45 kg group according to their weight at admission.They were treated with different dosages of Blinatumomab, and bone marrow remission was assessed at about 15 days.Clinical indicators and adverse events during the treatment period were recorded.The rank sum test of two independent samples were used to compare the differences between groups.The Fisher′ s test was used for comparing categorical variables. Results:Among the 16 children with R/R BCP-ALL, 12 cases (75%) achieved complete response (CR) and minimal residual lesion (MRD) turned negative at about 14 days.Among them, 5 out of 9 children with bone marrow primitive naive cell ratio≥0.5 achieved CR, and 7/7 children with bone marrow primitive naive cell ratio<0.5 achieved CR.The peak value of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in children with CR was significantly higher than those without CR ( Z=2.50, P=0.012). Twelve cases achieved CR on bone marrow assessment around day 15, and 3 cases who did not achieve CR remained in remission on day 28, with an efficacy prediction accuracy of 93.8%(15/16). Adverse events included fever, neutropenia, hypokalemia, abnormal liver function, hypocalcemia, edema, rash, hypertension, myocardial damage, abdominal pain, hypotension, and cytokine release syndrome, which were all grade 1.Neurotoxicity and death were not reported. Conclusions:The remission rate of R/R BCP-ALL in children treated with Blinatumomab was high, especially in patients with a low tumor load.The toxicity and adverse events of Blinatumomab treatment are minor and controllable.Day 15 is the optimal time point to evaluate the efficacy of Blinatumomab on children with R/R BCP-ALL, and a higher IL-6 peak can be served as a predictor of its efficacy.

Objective: To explore the clinical implications and prognostic value of TP53 gene mutation and deletion in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) . Methods: 112-gene targeted sequencing and interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to detect TP53 mutation and deletion in 584 patients with newly diagnosed primary MDS who were admitted from October 2009 to December 2017. The association of TP53 mutation and deletion with several clinical features and their prognostic significance were analyzed. Results: Alterations in TP53 were found in 42 (7.2%) cases. Of these, 31 (5.3%) cases showed TP53 mutation only, 8 (1.4%) cases in TP53 deletion only, 3 (0.5%) cases harboring both mutation and deletion. A total of 37 mutations were detected in 34 patients, most of them (94.6%) were located in the DNA binding domain (exon5-8) , the remaining 2 were located in exon 10 and splice site respectively. Patients with TP53 alterations harbored significantly more mutations than whom without alterations (z=-2.418, P=0.016) . The median age of patients with TP53 alterations was higher than their counterparts[60 (21-78) years old vs 52 (14-83) years old, z=-2.188, P=0.029]. TP53 alterations correlated with complex karyotype and International prognostic scoring system intermediate-2/high significantly (P<0.001) . Median overall survival of patients with TP53 alterations was shorter than the others[13 (95%CI 7.57-18.43) months vs not reached, χ²=12.342, P<0.001], while the significance was lost during complex karyotype adjusted analysis in multivariable model. Conclusion TP53 mutation was more common than deletion in MDS patients. The majority of mutations were located in the DNA binding domain. TP53 alterations were strongly associated with complex karyotype and always coexisted with other gene mutations. TP53 alteration was no longer an independent prognostic factor when complex karyotype were occurred in MDS.

Objective: To evaluate clinical characteristics and prognosis of primary myelofibrosis (PMF) patients with thrombocytopenia in varied degrees. Methods: Clinical features and survival data of 1 305 Chinese patients with PMF were retrospectively analyzed. The prognostic value of thrombocytopenia in patients with PMF was evaluated. Results: 320 subjects (47%) presented severe thrombocytopenia (PLT<50×10⁹/L), 198 ones (15.2%) mild thrombocytopenia [PLT (50-99)×10⁹/L] and 787 ones (60.3%) without thrombocytopenia (PLT ≥ 100×10⁹/L). The more severe the thrombocytopenia, the higher the proportions of HGB<100 g/L, WBC<4×10⁹/L, circulating blasts ≥ 3%, abnormal karyotype and unfavourable cytogenetics (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.004, P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively) were observed in this cohort of patients. The more severe the thrombocytopenia, the lower the proportion of JAK2V617F positive (P<0.001) was also noticed. Platelet count was positively correlated with splenomegaly, HGB and WBC (P<0.001, correlation coefficients were 0.131, 0.445 and 0.156, respectively). Platelet count was negative correlated with constitutional symptoms and circulating blasts (P=0.009, P=0.045, respectively; correlation coefficients were -0.096 and -0.056, respectively). The median survival of patients with severe thrombocytopenia, mild thrombocytopenia and without thrombocytopenia were 32, 67 and 89 months, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis identified thrombocytopenia in varied degrees (HR=1.693, 95%CI 1.320-2.173, P<0.001) and Dynamic Internation Prognostic Scoring System(DIPSS) prognostic model (HR=2.051, 95%CI 1.511-2.784, P<0.001) as independent risk factors for survival. Conclusion PMF patients with severe thrombocytopenia frequently displayed anemia, leucopenia, circulating blasts and short survival, so active treatment measures should be taken especially in these patients.

Objective:To evaluate the oncologic outcomes of different laparoscopic radical hysterectomy.Methods:From January 2011 to December 2014, the laparoscopic operation cases of cervical cancer at stage Ⅰb1, Ⅰb2, Ⅱa1 and Ⅱa2, including the histologic subtypes of squamous-cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma and adenosquamous carcinoma, were collected in five clinical centers. The data were divided into two groups according to the surgical procedures, that is, modified laparoscopic-vaginal radical hysterectomy (mLVRH) and total laparoscopic radical hysterectomy (TLRH). The overall survival rate (OS), disease-free survival rate (DFS) at 5 years were retrospectively analyzed in this study.Results:There were 674 cases in total, including 377 cases of mLVRH, 297 cases of TLRH. (1) The OS at 5 years: the mLVRH was 96.1% and the TLRH was 92.0%, and the mLVRH was higher than that of TLRH （ P=0.010）. Stratify analysis， including stage of disease （Ⅰb1 and Ⅱa1）， histologic subtypes （squamous-cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma）， lymph node metastasis， revealed that, ① Stage of disease: in stage Ⅰb1, the OS at five years of mLVRH was higher than that in TLRH group （98.6% vs 93.6%, P=0.012）. In stage Ⅱa1, there was significant difference between the two groups, the OS at five years of mLVRH and TLRH were 93.6% and 77.6% （ P=0.007）. ② Histologic subtypes: for the OS at five years of squamous-cell carcinoma, mLVRH and TLRH were 96.1% and 92.3%, and there was significant difference （ P=0.046）； for adenocarcinoma, the OS at five years were 91.0% and 88.6%， and there was no difference between two groups （ P=0.230）. ③ Lymph node metastasis： the mLVRH and TLRH with lymph node metastasis, the OS at five years were 98.6% and 96.4%; the mLVRH and TLRH without lymph node metastasis, the OS at five years were 89.3% and 80.8%. There were no significant differences between the two groups,respectively ( P=0.156， P=0.093）. (2) The DFS at 5 years: there was no significant difference between mLVRH and TLRH (94.1% vs 90.9%, P=0.220). Stratify analysis for stage of disease, the mLVRH group was higher than that in the TLRH group in stage Ⅰb1 (97.0% vs 92.8%, P=0.039). However, for stage Ⅱa1, there was no significant difference between mLVRH and TLRH group （88.2% vs 75.8%, P=0.074）. Conclusions:The results of this retrospective study indicated that different laparoscopy surgical procedures had diverse oncologic outcomes. The OS at 5 years of the mLVRH is superior to the TLRH. The DFS at 5 years in Ⅰb1 stage, the mLVRH is higher than the TLRH. Therefore, the modified laparoscopy is still an alternative surgery for early cervical cancer patients when following the principle of no-tumor-exposure.

Objective:To explore the molecular features and prognostic value of RAS mutations in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) .Methods:112-gene targeted sequencing was conducted to detect RAS mutations in 776 patients with newly diagnosed primary MDS from December 2011 to December 2018. The mutual exclusivity and co-occurrence in gene mutations and clonal architecture were explored. Moreover, the prognostic significance of RAS mutations in MDS was analyzed.Results:RAS gene mutations were found in 52 (6.7% ) cases, 38 (4.9% ) of whom harbored NRAS mutation, 18 (2.3% ) KRAS mutation, and 4 (0.5% ) both NRAS and KRAS mutations. All the NRAS mutations and 65% of the KRAS mutations were located in codons 12, 13, and 61. PTPN11, FLT3, U2AF1, RUNX1, WT1, ETV6, and NPM1 mutations were enriched in patients with RAS mutations ( Q<0.05) . Around 80% of RAS mutations represented subclonal lesions in patients who harbored at least two different mutations. Patients with RAS mutations were more frequently diagnosed with MDS with excess blast (MDS-EB) (82.7% vs. 35.2% , P<0.001) and had higher levels of white blood cell count (4.33×10 9/L vs. 2.71×10 9/L, P<0.001) , neutrophil absolute count (2.13×10 9/L vs. 1.12×10 9/L, P<0.001) , and bone marrow blast percentage (7% vs. 2% , P<0.001) but lower levels of platelet count (48×10 9/L vs. 62×10 9/L, P=0.048) . RAS mutations were correlated with higher-risk categories in the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) (71.1% vs. 37.9% , P<0.001) . The median overall survival of patients with NRAS mutations was shorter than the others ( P=0.011) , while the significance was lost in the multivariable model. Conclusion:RAS gene mutations always occurred in the late-stage MDS and co-occurred with other signal transduction- and transcription factor-related gene mutations. PTPN11, a RAS pathway-related gene, is an independent poor prognostic factor in MDS patients.

Objective:To explore the features and clinical significance of gene mutations in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes with ring sideroblasts (MDS-RS) .Methods:A total of 255 newly diagnosed primary MDS-RS patients were retrospectively reviewed from our center from January2001 to June 2019. SF3B1 gene mutations were detected by Sanger sequencing in 129 patients, and next generation sequencing (NGS) was performed in the other 126 patients using a set of selected 112-genes.Results:A total of 193 (75.7%) patients presented with SF3B1 mutation, predominantly mutant at amino acid position 700 (K700E) ( n=147, 76.2%) . Non-SF3B1 gene mutations were TET2 (16.7%) , ASXL1 (14.3%) , U2AF1 (11.1%) , TP53 (7.9%) , SETBP1 (6.3%) , and RUNX1 (6.3%) . RS 5%-<15% patients had a higher SETBP1 mutation frequency than RS≥15% patients (21.4% vs 4.5%, P=0.044) . Mutation frequencies of other genes were similar in both groups (all P>0.05) . SF3B1 variant allele frequencies (VAF) had positive correlation with marrow RS percentage but without statistical significance in RS 5%-<15% group ( P=0.078, r=0.486) . SF3B1 mutant patients presented with higher marrow RS percentage compared with wild-type patients[40.0% (15.0%-80.0%) vs 25.5% (15.0%-82.0%) , P<0.001], and SF3B1 VAF positively correlated with RS percentage ( P=0.009, rs=0.261) in RS≥15% group. Age, ANC, PLT, mean RBC corpuscular volume, RS percentage, IPSS-R cytogenetics, and IPSS-R risk score were significantly different between patients with SF3B1 mutations and wild-type SF3B1 (all P<0.05) . Multivariable survival analyses adjusted by age and IPSS-R cytogenetics revealed that SF3B1 mutation was an independent favorable prognostic factor ( HR=0.265, 95% CI 0.077-0.917, P=0.036) , and TP53 mutation was an adverse variable independent of SF3B1 mutation ( HR=6.272, 95% CI 1.725-22.809, P=0.005) . According to the mutant status of SF3B1 and TP53, MDS-RS patients were categorized into 4 groups, namely, with SF3B1 and TP53 mutation, with wild-type SF3B1 and TP53, with wild-type SF3B1 but TP53 mutation, and with SF3B1 mutation but wild-type TP53. There was a significant difference for OS among these 4 groups ( P<0.001) . The former 3 groups showed no significant difference in OS in multiple comparisons. However, the SF3B1 mutation but wild-type TP53 group had a better OS than wild-type SF3B1 but TP53 mutation group and wild-type SF3B1 and TP53 group, whereas a similar OS compared with SF3B1 and TP53 mutation group. Conclusion:SF3B1 mutations were prevalent in MDS-RS patients with the most common mutation at amino acid position 700 (K700E) . SF3B1 mutation was an independent favorable prognostic variable, whereas TP53 mutation was an independent adverse variable. SF3B1 mutation could coordinate with TP53 mutation for more sophisticated prognosis stratification in MDS-RS patients.

Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of hypomethylating agents (HMA) in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) .Methods:A total of 409 MDS patients from 45 hospitals in Zhejiang province who received at least four consecutive cycles of HMA monotherapy as initial therapy were enrolled to evaluate the efficacy and safety of HMA. Mann-Whitney U or Chi-square tests were used to compare the differences in the clinical data. Logistic regression and Cox regression were used to analyze the factors affecting efficacy and survival. Kaplan-Meier was used for survival analysis. Results:Patients received HMA treatment for a median of 6 cycles (range, 4-25 cycles) . The complete remission (CR) rate was 33.98% and the overall response rate (ORR) was 77.02%. Multivariate analysis revealed that complex karyotype ( P=0.02, OR=0.39, 95% CI 0.18-0.84) was an independent favorable factor for CR rate. TP53 mutation ( P=0.02, OR=0.22, 95% CI 0.06-0.77) was a predictive factor for a higher ORR. The median OS for the HMA-treated patients was 25.67 (95% CI 21.14-30.19) months. HMA response ( P=0.036, HR=0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.95) was an independent favorable prognostic factor, whereas complex karyotype ( P=0.024, HR=2.14, 95% CI 1.10-4.15) , leukemia transformation ( P<0.001, HR=2.839, 95% CI 1.64-4.92) , and TP53 mutation ( P=0.012, HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.19-4.07) were independent adverse prognostic factors. There was no significant difference in efficacy and survival between the reduced and standard doses of HMA. The CR rate and ORR of MDS patients treated with decitabine and azacitidine were not significantly different. The median OS of patients treated with decitabine was longer compared with that of patients treated with azacitidine (29.53 months vs 20.17 months, P=0.007) . The incidence of bone marrow suppression and pneumonia in the decitabine group was higher compared with that in the azacitidine group. Conclusion:Continuous and regular use of appropriate doses of hypomethylating agents may benefit MDS patients to the greatest extent if it is tolerated.

Objective: To explore the prognostic effects of mean corpuscular volume (MCV) in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) . Methods: 321 newly diagnosed, untransfused primary MDS patients who administered from December 2009 to December 2017 were enrolled. The association of MCV with prognosis and several clinical features and genetic mutations were analyzed. Results: Patients were divided into MCV≤100 fl (n=148) and MCV>100 fl (n=173) cohorts. Median overall survival of patients with MCV≤100 fl was shorter than their counterparts (27 months vs 72 months, P<0.001) . In subgroup analysis, MCV≤100 fl patients had worse survivals in bone marrow blast <5% cohort (34 months vs not reached, P=0.002) , but not so in ≥5 % cohort (17 months vs 20 months, P=0.078) . MCV≤100 fl was still an independent adverse variable (HR=1.890, 95%CI 1.007-3.548, P=0.048) after adjusting for clinical and laboratory variables and mutation topography in bone marrow blasts<5% cohort. In bone marrow blasts<5% cohort, patients with MCV≤100 fl had higher hemoglobin levels [90 (42-153) g/L vs 78.5 (28-146) g/L, P=0.015].The proportions of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) high/very high risks and poor/very poor IPSS-R karyotypes were higher in MCV≤100 fl cohort (28.8% vs 10.8%, P=0.003; 24.7% vs 12.9%, P=0.049) . MCV≤100 fl cohort had more genetic mutations than those with MCV>100 fl though without significance (0.988 vs 0.769, P=0.064) . Mutated SF3B1 was less frequently in MCV≤100 fl cohort (4.7% vs 15.4%, P=0.018) . Conclusion MCV≤100 fl was an independent adverse variable after adjusting for clinical and laboratory variables and mutation topography in MDS patients with bone marrow blasts<5%.