BACKGROUND: Non-transport unintentional injuries (NTUIs) are major public concerns, especially among children and adolescents in low- and middle-income countries. With environmental and cognitive changes, a recent systematic description of global trends and regional differences concerning NTUIs is urgently needed for the global agenda of relevant policy-making and intervention target findings. METHODS: We used mortality, population, and socio-demographic-index (SDI) data from Global Burden of Disease 2019 to analyze the trends of NTUIs mortality. We applied the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) to measure the absolute and relative inequality between countries and territories. The concentration curve and concentration index (CI) were also used to measure the inequality. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to make our findings credible. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 205,000 deaths due to NTUIs among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years, which decreased from 375,000 in 1990. In 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 8.13 per 100,000, ranging from the lowest in the Netherlands (0.90 per 100,000) to the highest in the Solomon Islands (29.34 per 100,000). The low-middle SDI group had the highest ASMR of NTUIs, while the low SDI group had the slowest decrease. After excluding the death caused by "exposure to forces of nature" and "other unintentional injuries", drowning accounted for the most deaths in almost every SDI group, gender, and age group, but the major causes of death varied in different subgroups. For example, animal contact was a major cause in low and low-middle SDI groups but less in high SDI groups, while high and high-middle SDI groups had a higher proportion of deaths for foreign body and poisonings. The SII showed a declining trend, but the RII and CI did not, which might indicate that inequality was persistent. Similar results were found in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS Despite the declining trend of the mortality rate and the narrowing gap between countries, there were still a large number of children and adolescents dying from NTUIs, and those experiencing social-economic disadvantages remained at high mortality. Embedding the prevention of NTUIs into sustainable development goals might contribute to the progress of reducing death and inequalities, which ensures that no one is left behind.
Global Burden of Disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine the global, regional, and national disease burden of neonatal jaundice. METHODS: The 2019 Global Burden of Disease database was searched to collect incident cases/incidence and deaths/mortality of neonatal jaundice, as well as global socio-demographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI). The epidemiological trend of neonatal jaundice from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The correlations between incidence/mortality of neonatal jaundice and SDI and UHCI were evaluated. RESULTS: From 601 681 in 1990 to 626 005 in 2019, with a 4.04% increase in global incident cases of neonatal jaundice. The overall age-standardized incidence rate exhibited an increase [estimated annual percent change=0.13 (95%CI: 0.03 to 0.23)] during this period. Additionally, deaths due to neonatal jaundice decreased by 58.83%, from 128 119 in 1990 to 52 742 in 2019. The overall age-standardized mortality rate showed a decrease [estimated annual percent change=-2.78 (95%CI: -3.00 to -2.57)] over the same period. Countries with lower SDI, such as India, Pakistan, and Nigeria, reported a higher proportion of neonatal morbidity and mortality. In 2019, a negative correlation was observed between estimated annual percent change in age-standardized mortality rate and SDI (ρ=-0.320, P<0.05) or UHCI (ρ=-0.252, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS The global incidence of neonatal jaundice is on the rise, while the mortality rate is declining. The burden of neonatal jaundice is influenced by social development, economic factors, and the level of medical care.
Infant, Newborn ; Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Jaundice, Neonatal/epidemiology* ; Incidence

Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Objective: To depict gastric cancer burden trends globally and analyze geographical and socioeconomic disparities among different countries and territories. Methods: We extracted the data from Global Burden of Disease 2019 Database. We conducted the Joinpoint regression and calculated the average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for age-standardized gastric cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. Linear regression was performed to measure the association of sociodemographic index (SDI) with each country's gastric cancer incidence and mortality AAPC. We applied the age-period-cohort analysis to assess the cohort effect on gastric cancer incidence and mortality. Results: The AAPCs for gastric cancer age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were -1.27% (95% CI: -1.43%, -1.11%) and -1.87% (95% CI: -2.01%, -1.72%), respectively. SDI levels were negatively associated with AAPCs, which means that countries with higher SDI had higher AAPC (P<0.001). The decrease of gastric cancer burden in countries with low or medium SDI levels was slower than that globally. The age-period-cohort analysis indicated that countries with higher SDI levels had more apparent decline in birth cohort effects from 1900 to 1999. Conclusions: Countries with different socioeconomic levels have various decreasing rates for gastric cancer incidence and deaths. Countries with higher SDI levels have higher declining rates for gastric cancer burden.
Global Burden of Disease ; Global Health ; Humans ; Incidence ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate spatiotemporal variations of global heat-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data on the burden of heat-related CVD were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify heat-induced CVD burden. We calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALY rate (ASDR) per 100,000 population to compare this burden across regions. Generalized linear models were applied to evaluate estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The correlation between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rate was measured using the Spearman rank test. RESULTS: Heat-induced CVD caused approximately 90 thousand deaths worldwide in 2019. Global ASMR and ASDR of heat-related CVD in 2019 were 1.17 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 0.13-1.98] and 25.59 (95% CI: 2.07-44.17) per 100,000 population, respectively. The burden was significantly increased in middle and low-SDI regions and slightly decreased in high-SDI regions from 1990 to 2019. ASMR showed an upward trend, with the most considerable increase in low-latitude countries. We observed a negative correlation between SDI and EAPC in ASMR ( r _s = -0.57, P < 0.01) and ASDR ( r _s = -0.59, P < 0.01) among 204 countries. CONCLUSION Heat-attributable CVD burden substantially increased in most developing countries and tropical regions.
Humans ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Hot Temperature ; Temperature ; Global Health ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: This study aims to analyze the disease burden of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents aged 0-19 years in 2019 and its trends from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Data were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease study. The prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents were compared with the global average by gender, age group, and severity of disability in 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in the prevalence and YLDs of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019. Results: The prevalence and YLDs of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents in 2019 were 1 522.65 per 100 000 (95%UI: 1 228.62 per 100 000-1 817.55 per 100 000) and 109.81 per 100 000 (95%UI: 72.15 per 100 000-158.09 per 100 000), respectively, which were lower than the global average. The prevalence and YLDs of severe intellectual disability in China were slightly higher than the global average. The average annual percent changes in the prevalence and YLDs of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents were -0.23% (95%CI: -0.26%--0.21%, P<0.001) and 0.74% (95%CI: 0.66%-0.81%, P<0.001) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The prevalence and YLDs of severe intellectual disability showed continuously increasing trends over the past 30 years. Conclusions: The disease burden of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents was lower than the global average in 2019, but severe intellectual disability was higher than the global average. The prevalence of intellectual disability among Chinese children and adolescents showed an overall decrease, while YLDs showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019.
Adolescent ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Global Burden of Disease ; Global Health ; Humans ; Intellectual Disability/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE). Method We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results By 2030, the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale, with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males, but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden, with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China, the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030, respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society, the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men, and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death. Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender, age, regional, and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Bayes Theorem ; Global Health ; Risk Factors ; Cost of Illness ; Endocarditis ; Heart Failure

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.
Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Global Health ; China/epidemiology* ; Aging ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: To analyse the fractions and trends of cancer burden attributable to population ageing, adult population size, age-specific incidence and case fatality rate in China between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We extracted data from the database of Global Disease Burden Study, including the number of cancer cases, deaths and corresponding population of 29 cancer types for Chinese adults aged 25 years and older from 1990 to 2019. Using the cancer deaths in 1990 as a reference, we employed a decomposition method to express cancer deaths as the product of four factors among men and women from 1991 to 2019. The fractions attributable to cancer deaths among total cancer deaths in that year were calculated and its time trends were assessed. Results: In 2019, we estimated that there were 2 690 000 cancer deaths among adults aged 25 and older in China. Of which, cancer deaths attributable to population ageing, adult population size, age-specific cancer incidence and case fatality rate were 740 000 (27.5% of total cancer deaths in 2019), 1 091 000 (40.6%), 198 000 (7.3%) and -728 000 (-27.1%), respectively. In 2019, lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, liver cancer and colorectal cancer ranked the top five cancers among population ageing attributable to cancer deaths. For 29 cancer types, the fractions of population ageing attributable to cancer deaths among total deaths of that cancer were ranged from 9.3% to 40.5%. The ageing attributable to cancer deaths and its fractions were increased rapidly since 1997, while those estimates were negative before 1997. Conclusions: The population ageing process in China was one of the major contributors to the increase in cancer burden in recent years, which has caused more cancer deaths than that by age-specific cancer incidence. Accordingly, activities toward healthy ageing would be the key to cancer prevention and control.
Adult ; China/epidemiology* ; Esophageal Neoplasms ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Incidence ; Liver Neoplasms ; Male

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in major Asian countries and forecast the burden of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. Methods: Data on disease burden of pancreatic cancer among global and major Asian countries from on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were collected to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, death and disability adjusted life years (DALY) by year, sex and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) was used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer in 2019 was used to compare by age, sex and region. ARIMA model was performed with R language to predict change of age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2029. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.17/100 000 to 5.78/100 000, and the standardized death rate increased from 3.34/100 000 to 5.99/100 000. The increases exceeded other high-income Asia countries. In the past three decades, the standardized incidence, death and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in global have increased year by year. Among the major countries in Asia, China has the highest growth rate of disease burden (EAPC of standardized incidence rates=2.32%, 95% CI: 2.10%-2.48% and EAPC of standardized death rate=2.25%, 95% CI: 2.03%-2.42%). In addition, incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China are expected to continue on the rise between 2000 and 2029 by ARIMA model. Incidence rate is expected to increase 15.92% and death rate is expected to increase 15.86%. Conclusions: The standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China increase year by year with an increasing trend for the burden of disease. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to rise due to the increase and aging of the population. Preventive measures should be adopted to decrease the burden of the pancreatic cancer.
Asia/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Incidence ; Pancreatic Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors